New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson entered this season with dreams of being to Aaron Rodgers what Davante Adams was during his tenure in Green Bay. He enters Week 7 having posted consecutive 100-yard games, but Adams was dealt to the Jets. Now, rumors suggest teams are circling the trade waters on the 24-year-old.
After the Jets’ acquisition of Davante Adams, a select group of NFL teams have inquired into whether New York would be willing to trade fellow star WR Garrett Wilson, league sources told ESPN.https://t.co/sH9BUWMBn4
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 20, 2024
We take a look at three potential landing spots and evaluate his fantasy football stock should such a move occur. While Wilson is a building block for the future, he is an elite option for teams that want to win right now. Why? He can do a little bit of everything.
His production through six weeks this season from the slot has taken off — that will be appealing for the teams on this list.
Slot Fantasy Production To Expectation
- 2022: -5.1%
- 2023: -26.2%
- 2024: +9.3%
Of course, plenty of these numbers are tied to the quarterback. But Aaron Rodgers isn’t exactly spinning it at a high level thus far, and Wilson has been able to return a profit when lined up in tight.
Garrett Wilson in the slot with Davante Adams on the outside…
Slot corners have 0 chance pic.twitter.com/uMwxNR72iw
— J. Gray (@JGrayJets) October 17, 2024
There’s also his ability to win in the red zone. Sure, he only has 10 touchdowns across 2.5 NFL seasons, but again, much of that is the product of the limitations that New York has had under center. Since being drafted, Wilson has earned a target on 29.4% of his red-zone routes, a rate that ranks eighth of 57 qualifiers, ahead of names you’ve heard of like Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill.
Last season, four teams scored over 40 red-zone touchdowns, and three of them made the Conference Championship round of the playoffs. The final teams left standing in the NFC ranked first and third in touchdown rate once getting inside the opponents’ 20-yard line — in the event that you needed evidence of this being important, there you go.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The 4-2 Steelers are happy with where they are in the standings, but they have to be aware that struggling to reach 20 points is a dangerous way to live in 2024. George Pickens is the clear WR1 in this offense, but he’s spent just 17.7% of his career snaps in the slot and has produced under expectation from that spot on the field since the beginning of last season (zero touchdowns).
Since 2019, Russell Wilson ranks fifth of 47 qualifiers in touchdown rate when throwing to the slot, ahead of the two monsters that are identified as both the present and future of the AFC (Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen). The veteran will make his season debut today, and with the Steelers clearly interested in exploring options next to (or instead of) Justin Fields, this would be a way to improve that bet.
In theory, you’d like Pickens’ profile for a red-zone threat, but he’s earned just 21 targets in close for his career, scoring on just two of them. Would adding Wilson allow Pickens to focus on stretching the field while also limiting the amount of defensive attention that can be paid to him?
Kansas City Chiefs
This one feels pretty straightforward with Rashee Rice done for the regular season and the team expressing interest entering the season to manage Travis Kelce’s reps. Prior to getting hurt, Rice ranked 12th in fantasy expectation over expectation from the slot, seventh in slot targets, and fifth in slot receptions. He was great in that role, and Mahomes was happy to exploit defenses underneath.
Kelce hauled in nine of 10 targets in the Week 5 win over the Saints. He’s more than capable of winning on those routes, but Kansas City wants him peaking in January, not November.
We also have the injury to Isiah Pacheco to navigate. Not that Wilson is going to pick up any sort of role on the ground, but the limitations in the running game has factored prominently into the Chiefs ranking 29th in red-zone conversion rate.
Andy Reid is the most creative offensive mind in our game, and adding a bishop to his chess board, not a pawn, has to be considered at least.
Dallas Cowboys
America’s team has a star receiver in CeeDee Lamb, but they have a clear need for a WR2 in what they believe could be their title window. Brandin Cooks is on IR and is pretty clearly on the back nine of his career, while Jalen Tolbert offers promise but doesn’t appear ready to handle a strong weekly role.
Enter Wilson, a player who could help save an offense that ranks 27th in touchdown rate (30th when those drives reach the 20-yard line). The fit next to Lamb would be an interesting one, but again, the slot is a path for Wilson to be optimized.
Lamb’s Slot Production To Expectation
- 2022: +27.4%
- 2023: +19.7%
- 2024: -33.3%
His slot usage is lower through six weeks than it was in either of the previous two seasons. If the Cowboys can remove that from his route tree altogether, I think they would, as it would mean more perimeter routes where he dominates.
Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Stock
At the end of the day, there should be 32 teams interested in Wilson being dealt — the 31 other teams in the NFL and the team in your league who rosters the budding star. I find it unlikely that a low-octane offense like the Chargers will go after him, and with the Raiders/Browns moving on from their star wideouts, those offensive wastelands are out of the equation.
His exact fantasy standing, if dealt, will fluctuate. But it would certainly be a boon. In fact, I’d argue that a trade to any of the teams mentioned above wouldn’t only be an upgrade to Wilson’s currency value but from the value he held at your draft this summer.
For the sake of argument, rest of season ranking (PPR) for the above landing spots:
- Kansas City Chiefs: WR5 (ahead of A.J. Brown)
- Dallas Cowboys: WR12 (ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: WR17 (ahead of Terry McLaurin)