The New York Jets recently traded for wide receiver Davante Adams in an effort to help aid their offense, which has struggled up to this point. According to TruMedia, the Jets are 2-4 with the 23rd-most points scored and seventh-fewest points given up. Adams will hopefully be able to take some attention off of WR Garrett Wilson and give quarterback Aaron Rodgers another reliable target.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, are 4-2. Yet, everything around them feels touchy and in danger of going south. This is because QB Russell Wilson is now healthy, and head coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t know if he wants to start a healthy Wilson or continue starting Justin Fields.
For what it’s worth, Fields ranks 16th among 31 quarterbacks with over 100 attempts in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Jets -1.5 - Moneyline
Jets (-130); Steelers (+110) - Over/Under
39 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium
Jets vs. Steelers Preview and Prediction
Since 2020, Rodgers averaged 0.48 EPA per dropback when targeting Adams. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes averages 0.39 EPA when targeting Travis Kelce, Josh Allen averaged 0.31 EPA when throwing to Stefon Diggs, and Jalen Hurts averages 0.37 EPA when targeting A.J. Brown.
While Rodgers isn’t quite the same as he used to be, I don’t think he has lost his fastball yet. As I have mentioned in other articles, one of the main issues with the Jets’ offense has been miscommunication.
New York ranks third in the NFL in incompletions caused by miscommunication. Adams’ route-running skills and overall connection with Rodgers should help reduce this.
The Jets’ offensive line has performed well, allowing pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league, which is helped largely by a time to throw that is second-fastest. Even when accounting for this, New York ranks sixth in quick pressure allowed (pressure in under 2.5 seconds).
Surprisingly, the Steelers rank 21st in generating pressure and have the fourth-lowest blitz rate in the league. Despite these numbers, Pittsburgh’s defense still ranks ninth in defensive EPA, ranking 19th against the pass and third against the rush.
My initial reaction was to find out if teams are altering their scheme against the Steelers to get the ball out quicker against a fierce defensive line. After comparing the average time to throw for teams when they play Pittsburgh and when they don’t, the p-value came out as insignificant. There’s not enough evidence to claim that teams are changing the way they play against the Steelers’ defensive line.
The Jets’ defense has been the one keeping them in games. They rank fifth in pressure generated, fourth in defensive pass EPA, and 25th in defensive rush EPA. Luckily for them, the Steelers have the third-worst rushing EPA, are around average in generating explosives in the run game, and rank 27th in yards per rush before contact.
I think part of why the Steelers struggle to run the ball is because they do it too much, even when they shouldn’t. Pittsburgh has run the ball against a stacked box 81 times this year, good for fourth-most in the league. Part of this is because they have a pass rate over expected of -7.7%, which ranks fourth-lowest.
Another reason is that Pittsburgh ranks 20th in play-action pass attempts per game. They also use 13 personnel more than any other team, and yet, they pass out of it only 40.4% of the time.
What makes this interesting is that New York’s defense runs the fourth-most plays with a stacked box but ranks 29th in the league when doing so.
The Jets’ path to victory is all about the pass. If they can keep Rodgers clean and force the Steelers to throw the ball, they will win. But if Pittsburgh can force New York into rushing situations and run the ball efficiently themselves, they’ll be victorious.
My pick: Jets -1.5
