The Jacksonville Jaguars got embarrassed last week in London by the Chicago Bears and are still somehow rocking with Doug Pederson. They are now 1-5 this season and 4-11 since Week 10 of last season. According to Over The Cap, they also have spent the fourth most cash in the NFL.
The Patriots got blown out last week by the Houston Texans, but Drake Maye got a game under his belt and showed some promise. He threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions and was sacked six times.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread:
Jaguars -5.5 - Moneyline:
Jaguars (-245); Patriots (+200) - Over/Under:
42 total points - Game Time:
9:30 a.m. ET - Location
Wembley Stadium, London
Patriots vs. Jaguars Preview and Prediction
There is no way around it — the Patriots have an absolutely putrid offensive line. According to TruMedia, the Patriots’ offensive line has allowed the third most pressures per dropback in the league at 43.7%. This isn’t a function of being blitzed a lot or holding on to the ball too long as they are blitzed the 17th most and have the 11th longest time to throw.
Steven Patton gave a great example of why Maye can mitigate this issue better than Jacoby Brissett. He has a high “create rate,” meaning he is often throwing the ball outside of the pocket and beyond his first read. As well, his expected points added (EPA) on these throws is one of the highest in the league (albeit in a small sample).
Meanwhile, Brissett has the 14th-highest pressure-to-sack rate of 36 quarterbacks with enough attempts
To add to that, the Jaguars are in no position to take advantage of the offensive line, ranking 27th in generating pressure. Maye also ranks fifth in EPA against the blitz, which is fortunate for the Jaguars defense which ranks 31st in blitz rate.
Offensively, the Jaguars are 19th in EPA — 26th in passing and sixth in rushing. This is because of the big-play ability, ranking 12th in runs of 10+ yards, and tied for sixth in runs of 20 or more yards. The Patriots’ defense ranks middle of the pack in giving up explosives and 23rd in overall defensive rush EPA. This talent is a direct result of the runners and not the offensive line in Jacksonville.
They rank first in yards per rush after contact and 22nd in yards per rush before contact. Furthermore, their usual running back, Travis Etienne Jr., is much less explosive than their backup, Tank Bigsby.
Etienne ranks 60th of 81 running backs with over 20 attempts in yards per rush after contact. Bigsby ranks second behind only Baker Mayfield. The Patriots’ defense also ranks about average in allowing yards per rush before or after contact.
The final stat I will leave you with is that the Patriots and Jaguars both rank in the top 10 (seventh and eighth) as pass funnels. They both play defensive schemes that are conducive to passing the ball. With this in mind, the Jaguars’ only real advantage comes on the ground. Both teams have been bottom-feeding teams but I think Maye gives the Patriots a chance to stand out, especially considering there is no home-field advantage.
My pick: Patriots +5.5