Week 7 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week! Note that teams on a bye include the Bears and Cowboys.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 7 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at PIT)

All signs point to the Rodgers/Davante Adams reunion taking place on Sunday night against maybe the best defense in the league.

Are you not entertained?!?

I think you’re jumping the gun a touch if you want to lock in Rodgers this week given his lack of form and the potential for this offense to change in a significant way on short rest, but I do think he is firmly on the low-end QB1 discussion for the remainder of the season.

I’m viewing this as something of a second season-opening game; I think the offense has a chance to look that different. Rodgers has cleared 13 points in only one season opener since 2019, completing just 63.3% of his passes with six touchdowns (and four interceptions) on those 158 attempts.

I can’t get Rodgers any higher than QB14 this week due to the sudden change in personnel and short work week, but I imagine this is as low as I’ll have him for the foreseeable future.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (at LAR)

O’Connell averages 5.6 yards per pass this season and has as many interceptions as touchdown passes (two). His two highest-volume games came in tough spots (at Denver and vs. Pittsburgh), something that this certainly is not. However, without much receiver depth or a run game to keep the Rams honest, there just isn’t enough upside here, even in a plus matchup.

O’Connell doesn’t have a single rushing attempt this season, giving him essentially no room for error on a roster that doesn’t support such an outing.

Andy Dalton, QB | CAR (at WAS)

After the big win over the Raiders (319 yards and three scores), Dalton has come crashing back to earth and is the rare example of a quarterback playing the Commanders who isn’t ranked inside of my top 15.

Dalton has been intercepted in three straight starts and has failed to average even six yards per pass in all those contests. The Panthers have one path to remaining competitive this week (and most weeks, for that matter): pound Chuba Hubbard and shorten the game. Against a vulnerable defense like this, they might be able to do that for longer than normal, putting Dalton’s volume in question.

It wouldn’t shock me if we got a vintage performance, as the Commanders are a bottom-three defense in yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating, but there are options likely on your waiver wire whom I prefer (Geno Smith and Drake Maye).

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. MIA)

When Richardson tested at the NFL Combine, we were left wondering what force could possibly deal with his physical gifts. How we didn’t settle on Joe Flacco as the answer to the question is well beyond me.

Richardson was healthy enough to be the emergency quarterback last week, a status that has me thinking he plays this week, but how can you play him with confidence right now?

He should be rostered, and I’m penciling him in as a starter sooner rather than later if he can prove that he is at full speed this weekend. The Colts are going to have to put up points in bunches with the Texans, Vikings, Bills, Jets, and Lions on the Week 8-12 slate – we spent a pretty penny on Richardson this summer, and if he is going to come remotely close to rewarding us for our optimism, I think it starts next week.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. BAL)

Since joining the Bucs, Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of 11 road games; as long as Mike Evans can shake off a few injuries from Week 6, I like his chances to extend that positive trend.

Baltimore has allowed over 20 fantasy points to a quarterback three times already, though they did manage to slow down Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. On the whole, we’ve seen much more bad than good from the Ravens’ secondary. With Mayfield finishing as a top-seven QB in five of six weeks, he’s a good bet to pick on their flaws.

If you had told me two months ago that I’d have Mayfield ranked ahead of not one but both quarterbacks in the 49ers/Chiefs game, I would have called you crazy — but that’s where we sit.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at NO)

Nix has been a top-12 quarterback in three of his past four games, scoring over six points with his legs on each occasion. Over the last two weeks, the rookie has four touchdown passes on 60 attempts after throwing just one on 138 passes to open the season.

There’s a very good chance that Nix is a better fantasy QB than a real QB for years to come, and that means I’ll have my eye on him, but there is simply too much stability at the position to roll the dice on a sporadic rookie facing a top-four defense in both passer rating and touchdown rate.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. KC)

I don’t say this lightly, but does Purdy remind anyone else of a poor man’s version of peak Aaron Rodgers?

This season, Purdy’s aggressive grade (aDOT/yards per attempt), mobility score (rushing yards/pass attempts), and passer rating all stack up eerily similar to Rodgers’ best three-season stretch (2014-16, the stretch following the fractured clavicle). Both control/controlled tempo, leveraging their efficiency and betting that the opponent can’t stay as consistent.

I don’t say that to ruffle feathers. I say that because I think a strong run of production may be coming, and last week was a signal (251 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle) as opposed to an excuse to sell.

Peak Aaron Rodgers:

• 2014, Weeks 7-14: QB1 in points per game
• 2015, Weeks 9-14: QB5 in points per game
• 2016, Weeks 7-14: QB1 in points per game

With time and comfort, the version of Rodgers that I’m comparing to Purdy dominated the middle of the season. As we approach that window for Purdy, he’s got a nice run coming up of QBs that will push him to put up fantasy numbers (Patrick Mahomes this week, followed by Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Jordan Love).

Smith is the outlier, but we just saw Purdy go to Seattle and post a big week. The majority of those defenses give up over two-thirds of opponent yardage to come through the air, making them vulnerable to Purdy’s efficiency.

I suspect that Purdy isn’t viewed as a strong Tier 2 fantasy signal-caller by most and that the manager with him rostered might sweat the return of Christian McCaffrey. It might feel like a buy-high after a nice Week 7 — I think, in a month, the price you’re being asked to pay today will feel like a significant discount.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at GB)

There are a few games with more projected points, but would it surprise you in the least if this was the game on NFL RedZone the most this weekend?

It wouldn’t to me – I have both QBs ranked as top-five options at the position. We entered Week 6 worried about what Stroud would do without Nico Collins by his side, concerns that were logical given some underwhelming Week 6 numbers following the injury to his WR1.

Stroud answered those questions by completing seven of his first nine passes against the Patriots with a pair of touchdowns. The Packers have excelled at taking the ball away this season (nine interceptions), an interesting trend when put up against a QB in Stroud who set all sorts of efficiency records to start his career.

Green Bay has faced two pocket-oriented quarterbacks this season (Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford) and coughed up at least 260 passing yards on both occasions. In the case of Darnold, those yards put him in position to score three times and post 20.5 fantasy points, the most scored by a QB against the Packers this season.

Stroud has cleared 330 passing yards or thrown three touchdown passes in each game during this three-game win streak – can he make it four straight?

Daniel Jones, QB | NYG (vs. PHI)

There simply is no middle ground for Jones these days – he’s ranked inside the top 12 at the position three times and outside the top 20 three times. He’s thrown just two touchdown passes in his past three games against the divisional rival (85 attempts), trending me toward a negative ranking.

The Eagles have yet to play a QB with Jones’ mobility profile, but Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, and Jordan Love did all throw multiple touchdown passes against these Eagles. If we get good news on Malik Nabers, Jones’ status as a streamer elevates, but I’m not going to have him as a top-15 play regardless this week, as the middle tier of signal caller is exceptionally strong this week.

Deshaun Watson, QB | CLE (vs. CIN)

His positional finish has declined in four straight weeks, a hard thing to do when you consider that bye weeks have come into effect. I was excited to see if this struggling offense would be able to solve one of the worst defenses in the league, but with Amari Cooper being moved to Buffalo on Tuesday, this team is a D/ST target more than anything.

Watson again sits outside of my top 20 – hopefully, you have other options in a Superflex setting (but yes, I would start him over a WR3 if pressed).

Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. JAX)

The rookie showed well in his first career start last week with 19.5 fantasy points (Jacoby Brissett didn’t have a single game with 11 points this season). Skeptics will point to the blowout nature of that game, and to them, I say … so what? Are you expecting the Patriots to be competitive on any sort of consistent basis?

The 40-yard touchdown to Kayshon Boutte was a thing of beauty and helped make up for his first 13 passes netting just 65 yards. I find it unlikely that Maye makes much noise in the way of wins and losses for New England, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his versatility resulted in a few usable fantasy weeks.

The Jags rank 27th in pressure and 31st in blitz rate this season – I’m using this week as one to further scout Maye and see if I can carve out an opponent profile that works for a late-season spot-start/cheap DFS build.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at ATL)

Smith has thrown at least 40 passes in four of his past five games, a level of volume that we are conditioned to chase. However, his aDOT is crashing, and his next multi-touchdown passing game will be his first of the season.

To a degree, the clock struck midnight on Thursday for Smith. He had been surviving on the fringes given his specific skill set (strong rushing productions or 50+ yard completions), but neither occurred against the 49ers after the DK Metcalf score was wiped off the board.

What we saw in Week 6, in my opinion, is the type of fantasy production that this profile deems most likely. With smoke and mirrors, Smith was a top-10 QB in four of his first five games, but this middling QB2 range is much more how I value him moving forward.

With just two teams on a bye this week, I’m not starting Smith in anything but the deepest of single-QB formats.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at NYG)

The Giants have allowed over 16 fantasy points to a quarterback four times this season, a list that includes Deshaun Watson and Geno Smith. Jalen doesn’t need a plus matchup, but it never hurts.

• Hurts’ last three vs. NYG: 44-of-73 (60.3%) for 530 yards, one TD, two INTs

Those are underwhelming numbers, but with both of his star receivers back last week, I’m not worried about history repeating itself in that regard. In Week 6, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith caught both of his touchdown passes and accounted for 68.2% of his passing yards.

Both receivers came out of the week healthy and with Philadelphia labeled as a three-point road favorite, I have zero hesitation in putting him inside of my top five at the position.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (at MIN)

And the nominee for “Wild Stat Guy of the Week” goes to … Mr. Goff!

Let’s start with the good, a set of numbers you’re likely familiar with. Goff has essentially been perfect for the past eight quarters, and no, that’s not an exaggeration:

• 43 attempts
• 36 completions
• 607 yards
• Five touchdowns
• Zero interceptions

He is the proud owner of a difficult-to-comprehend 137.5 passer rating against the blitz this season (current career high for a season: 108.3 in 2017 for the Rams). You can’t speed him up without getting diced up, but you also can’t sit back because the vertical attack has been used by the Lions to open up everything else. Goff has a 50+ yard completion in four of five games and those splash plays range in how they manifest — trickery to Sam LaPorta like last week or Jameson Williams running right past your helpless secondary.

All of those notes have me happy to be holding a Goff MVP ticket, but I promised you a bizarre stat and I’m nothing if not a man of my word.

• His last four games at Minnesota: 153 passes, two TDs, two INTs
• His last four home games vs. Minnesota: 145 passes, 13 TDs, one INT

That’s a phenomenal note if your league plays through Week 18 but a concerning one if you really need a win this week. Is that a predictive stat? Is it a storytelling stat? Heck, I have no idea what it means, but it’s factually accurate, and I try to give you the entire story whenever possible.

Goff ranks as a low-end QB1 for me this week, in the same neighborhood as other pocket-locked signal-callers like Brock Purdy (vs. KC) and Kirk Cousins (vs. SEA).

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. CAR)

It feels like every week I leave more impressed with what Daniels is doing. Last week, even in a losing effort, I found his ability to excel in timing situations intoxicating. The highlight of the performance was the six-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin that could not have been defended any better.

I could wax poetic about everything the rookie can do, but keeping things simple might be the best option in this spot. The Panthers rank 27th or worst in yards per attempt, passer rating, touchdown rate, first-down percentage, and essentially any other statistic you want to select from the buffet.

Daniels has been a QB1 in five of six weeks and could very well be the QB1 this week.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at CLE)

Burrow has finished as a QB1 in five straight games, though his path to getting there on Sunday night was … odd.

• Weeks 1-5: 4% of fantasy points came on the ground
• Week 6: 58% of fantasy points came on the ground

I don’t think what we saw against the Giants is even remotely predictive, but he’s now planted the seed in the heads of opposing defenses, especially Cleveland, which has been victimized by mobile signal callers (Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Daniel Jones all cleared 19 points).

The one thing the Browns have done well this season is get to the quarterback. Through six weeks, they’ve applied pressure on 41.1% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. In most walks of life, that’s a valuable trait, but not here — Burrow is the proud owner of the highest pressured passer rating in the league (106.9).

I’m starting Burrow with confidence in this divisional spot and have him ranked as QB7.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. HOU)

Including the playoffs, Love has 10 straight multi-passing TD games, joining Patrick Mahomes and Dan Marino as the only players in NFL history with such a streak before turning 26 years old. Packers fans appear to be spoiled with another franchise QB, and fantasy managers have to be thrilled with the elevated floor.

The early season MCL injury is pretty clearly in the rearview at this point — Love has been a top-five QB in two of his three games back. A quarterback has scored at least 19.5 points against the Texans three times this season, and I like Love’s chances to make it four. He’s my QB4 for the week and my top-ranked signal caller in this game.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. TEN)

On Monday night, Allen recorded his 21st game since 2020 (playoffs included) with multiple TD passes and a rush TD — no other player during that stretch has more than Kyler Murray’s 10. After yet another strong performance, he apologized for vulturing the goal-line touchdown:

“I stole one from the running backs. They worked hard to get us there. So I feel bad for them.”

He can feel bad all he wants as long as he doesn’t insist on giving them those carries moving forward. The Titans have strong numbers against opposing QBs this season, but they’ve largely faced pocket-locked dinosaurs. Malik Willis (73 rushing yards and a touchdown) produced the best fantasy stat line against them this season, and what is Willis but a very low-rent Allen?

With Amari Cooper joining this team on Tuesday, I’d listen to the argument for Allen as fantasy’s top per-game player the rest of the way. I still prefer Lamar Jackson, but we are splitting hairs – if you have Allen, his production is real and spectacular.

Justin Fields, QB | PIT (vs. NYJ)

What is best for the Steelers and what is best for fantasy managers doesn’t align in the case of this QB room. Fields’ metrics are trending in the wrong direction, thus the speculation about his job security with Russell Wilson now healthy; yet, he’s been a top-15 fantasy quarterback in four straight games.

The sub-60% completion rate in consecutive games is a concern for a team that just needs stability on the offensive end in order to be competitive. Wilson gives the Steelers a better chance to win over time while Fields gives fantasy managers more of a ceiling at the position.

Sadly, Mike Tomlin isn’t paid to support your Superflex roster.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at ARI)

There are a handful of situations in the NFL this season where the game plan is to have their quarterback produce next to nothing in the way of fantasy numbers.

OK, OK — so maybe that’s not the “plan,” but the less that is asked of Herbert, the better things are going for the Bolts. Case in point: The Chargers are 3-2 without Herbert posting a single top-15 performance.

Rolling the dice on a quarterback, whether in a deep league or a DFS setting, facing the Cardinals will have my attention in most weeks. This, however, isn’t “most weeks.”

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (vs. SEA)

You’ll notice a theme as you navigate this piece – I don’t mind bucking the season-long numbers and fully targeting the Seahawks’ defense. Their overall numbers are inflated from a light schedule to open the season, and they’ve been vulnerable when facing even average offenses.

My concern here isn’t the quality of defense but rather how their approach works against what Cousins does well. This season, the veteran ranks fifth in non-pressured passer rating; that’s great, but he checks in at 24th when feeling the heat, and this Seahawks defense, flawed as it may be, apply pressure on 41.5% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

I don’t think Cousins gets to the 22 points that Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy have dropped on Seattle, but he should be better than the Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson crew that this defense dominated.

Cousins is my QB13 this season, ranking behind Purdy and Baker Mayfield for context.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. LAC)

Murray is an interesting option this week, as he’s largely been an all-or-nothing producer, and the potential of a dud increases dramatically should Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) be ruled out.

This season, he only has two finishes inside the top 15 at the position, but both of those were top-five weeks that likely helped you lock up a win. The Chargers defense has been stout, having allowed more than 13 fantasy points to a quarterback just twice this season, but in both of those situations, the signal caller cleared six points with their legs (Bo Nix and Justin Fields).

I have Murray ranked at the top of my low-end QB1 tier that extends down to QB13 Kirk Cousins. If you’re not feeling great about your quarterback position this week, you won’t be alone.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at TB)

Last week was a little disappointing as it was Jackson’s worst showing of the season in the best matchup he could ask for, but there’s no point in living in the past.

Jackson remains an elite option who is averaging a career-high in yards per attempt and out-of-pocket passer rating. The Bucs aren’t the vulnerable pass defense that they were a season ago, but they have allowed three mobile QBs to clear 16 fantasy points this season (Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Bo Nix), giving an already high-floor signal caller an even further elevated worst-case scenario.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. LV)

The projected return of Cooper Kupp puts Stafford back in the top-12 conversation when the matchup presents itself — and a low-pressure Raiders defense is just that.

Stafford’s passer rating when pressured:

• 2022: 69.6
• 2023: 75.7
• 2024: 40.1

Stafford’s passer rating when not pressured:

• 2022: 93.3
• 2023: 99.6
• 2024: 104.3

Despite the presence of Maxx Crosby, Vegas struggles as much as any team in the league to make opposing signal-callers uncomfortable, which makes the Raiders vulnerable to a vintage Stafford afternoon.

The Raiders are far from a solid run defense, and Kyren Williams will continue to be the focal point of the Rams’ offense. Yet, the projectable efficiency makes Stafford worth a DFS look.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at SF)

The Chiefs are one of four teams returning from a bye this week, and their franchise signal-caller has looked an awful lot like a veteran QB also coming off of a bye but happens to be off of fantasy radars completely:

Matthew Stafford:

• 1,238 pass yards
• 67.4% complete
• 1.0 TD/INT rate
• 16 deep completions

Mahomes:

• 1,235 pass yards
• 69.4% complete
• 1.0 TD/INT rate
• 13 deep completions

Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa, and Deshaun Watson are three names on the long list of quarterbacks with a higher peak weekly finish this season than Mahomes. The future Hall of Famer hasn’t been a top-15 QB since the first week of the season and has been intercepted in every game this season and yet …

The Chiefs are unbeaten.

That’s great for fans of Kansas City but disheartening for his fantasy managers. While the Chiefs can win in a multitude of ways, options like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and even Jared Goff are asked to wear the cap for their respective teams, something that allows them to have access to a weekly fantasy ceiling that Mahomes just doesn’t.

Of course, counting out Andy Reid is dangerous and the odds are good that if you drafted Mahomes, you don’t have a reliable option that I have ranked ahead of him this week. That said, you need to adjust your expectations — as a football fan, you naturally lump Mahomes in with the best in the game, but that’s not the case in 2024 for fantasy purposes.

The only QB to reach 20 fantasy points against the 49ers this season is Kyler Murray (Week 5) — and he did so courtesy of 14.3 points as a runner (Mahomes has 8.3 this season). He’s a low-end QB1 for me this week and until I see a statistical reason to adjust.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. NYJ)

If the veteran gets the nod, this is a good spot for him to separate from Justin Fields to be magnified. When comparing Fields’ numbers to those of Wilson’s last season, they are eerily similar in terms of release time, completion percentage, average depth of throw, and yards per attempt. The major difference among the profiles is passer rating when pressured (a 99.5-67.0 edge in favor of the veteran).

That’s not to say that Wilson is poised to succeed in this spot, but New York’s blitz rate has been trending up and the Steelers currently own the highest pressure rate allowed when the defense brings the heat. Could some of that be Fields’ inability to hit timing routes? It’s possible, but Wilson held onto the ball plenty last season — he just holds the edge in processing capacity and thus the ability to let the play run out.

If he gets the start, I think there’s a decent chance he has success by NFL standards, but he’s not a top-15 QB for me.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (vs. DET)

Darnold spent last week leading his USC Trojans out of the tunnel in a big game against Penn State. He’s been deserving of that honor and anything else we want to hand out up to this point. Darnold is leading an undefeated Vikings team and has three top-10 finishes on his 2024 ledger.

Has he figured out the NFL or has Kevin O’Connell figured him out? I really don’t care what the answer is, but we saw some kinks in the armor in London (14/31 for 179 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception against the Jets in Week 5).

The Lions are rather ordinary across the board statistically in terms of their pass defense, and they try to increase their impact on that side of the ball with aggression. Two months ago, I would have said, with confidence, that such a style makes Detroit a DST to stream and start DFS lineups. Now? Now I think that’s the worst way to attack the Vikings.

Entering this season, Darnold completed 59.4% of his passes when blitzed with more interceptions than touchdown tosses. This season — 70.4% completion with four scores and no interceptions, resulting in a near-perfect passer rating (149.2).

Darnold has been one of the most valuable pocket-locked quarterbacks in fantasy up to this point — I expect more of the same in this spot. It’s not comfortable, but his profile projects friendlier than Mahomes’.

You have to love fantasy, don’t you?

Spencer Rattler, QB | NO (vs. DEN)

If you’re glazing through the Week 6 scores, you’ll notice that the Saints scored 27 points with Rattler at the controls, but there is truly nothing to see here.

• Second quarter: 77 passing yards and a touchdown (7.6 fantasy points)
• Other three quarters: 166 passing yards and two interceptions (4.8 fantasy points)

Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) have already been ruled out — dump-offs to Alvin Kamara only add up so fast.

Derek Carr should be back in the next week or two — the Saints travel to Carolina in Week 9, and that will be your spot for DFS exposure if you think this offense can rediscover its form from Weeks 1-2.

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (vs. NE)

Lawrence has three straight games with multiple touchdown passes; yet, he still doesn’t have a top-10 finish on his ledger this season. There’s some upside to flirt with here from a profile point of view (career-highs in average depth of throw and yards per deep pass attempt), but I prefer him in a catch-up spot, something that is hard to envision happening Sunday morning.

There will be a spot to grab some DFS exposure (maybe Week 16 at Las Vegas), but outside of that, you don’t need to devote much brain power in this direction.

Tyler Huntley, QB | MIA (at IND)

I don’t have much in the way of confidence in the Colts’ defense, but I have less in Huntley, who, despite the weapons at his disposal, has a peak finish of QB19 thus far. In theory, a speed-oriented team on a fast track should be appealing, but we have no tangible evidence to suggest that going in this direction is a savvy play, even in GPP DFS situations.

Huntley has more fantasy points with his legs (10.7) than his arm (9.6) this season. The floor is low and the ceiling isn’t nearly high enough to roll the dice.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (at BUF)

The next time Will Levis finishes inside the top 20 producers at the position will be the first this season. We thought that the moves this offseason would foreshadow more fantasy intrigue for the second-year QB, but he’s reached 20 completions just once and has a 30-yard completion in just one game this year.

Getting the Bills on short rest is a good spot for most, but Tennessee’s primary threats in the passing game align on the perimeter, the strength of Buffalo’s pass defense. There aren’t five quarterbacks I’d be less inclined to play on this slate than the former second-round pick.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. DET)

Jones left Week 5 early with a hip injury, and while the Week 6 bye came at the perfect time, we’re talking about a 29-year-old back who is playing for an undefeated team that has bought itself the ability to be patient with injuries like this.

This is the eighth season of Jones’ career, and he’s missed time in six of them. Reporting out of Minnesota seems to be cautiously optimistic at the moment, but you’ll need to monitor this situation as we near kickoff.

Jones has a pair of top-10s on his 2024 ledger, and while I would project a lesser workload if he suits up this week, there’s no way around ranking him as a top-20 option and a starter in all formats.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (at LAR)

If you’re considering Mattison, you’re desperate and simply picking on a matchup. I don’t mind that approach (the Rams have allowed five running backs to clear 16 fantasy points and own the second-worst EPA rush defense in the league), and with Ameer Abdullah losing a goal-line fumble against the Steelers on Sunday, the path to 15-plus touches is reasonably clear.

As long as you are going into this week with eyes wide open (3.4 yards per carry this season and under 4.0 in each of the past three seasons), I’m fine with the spot start. Rams games have been played in a tight window of late (three straight games decided by fewer than seven points), and that keeps a player like Mattison involved for all 60 minutes.

I hope you have more upside on your roster somewhere, but if you’re running low on warm bodies, Mattison’s volume holds value.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (vs. DEN)

I overcalculated the impact a change under center would have on Kamara’s role in the passing game as that is now three straight games with at least eight targets, a role that, even without any production on the ground, would be worthy of a spot in most fantasy lineups.

The lack of efficiency concerns that I raised this offseason are alive and well (24 carries for 66 yards with zero 10-yard runs over the past two weeks), but it simply doesn’t matter. The Broncos lead the league in blitz rate and rank fourth in pressure percentage, a style of play that is begging for Kamara to threaten the NFL record for receptions in a game.

Maybe not, but it’s more than enough to keep him in lineups across the board, even if you think the carries hold next to zero value.

Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (vs. JAX)

Gibson had a chance to impress last week, and he fell flat (13 carries for 19 yards). We are three years removed from Gibson being a featured back, and with the Patriots trusting him with just 61.9% of the RB carries with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined, it’s clear that they don’t view him as a bell cow.

Drake Maye has generated some excitement in New England, but for me, the upside he brings doesn’t impact the backfield in a significant way. Once we get word that Stevenson is healthy, Gibson returns to a ranking outside of my Flex range and could conceivably be cut in a pinch.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. CAR)

Ekeler was responsible for three of Jayden Daniels’ first six Week 6 completions (23 yards) and played the role of movable weapon, even with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined. For the season, the veteran running back has 27 more receiving than rushing yards (15 catches on 16 targets) a role that can serve as a viable one in a bye-week-replacement sense but not one that I am comfortable in backing once Robinson is back to handling the valuable touches.

One-quarter of Ekeler’s carries this season have failed to cross the line of scrimmage, a flaw that is going to keep him out of my Flex rankings more often than not, but holding a player like this at the end of your bench provides stability should injuries and/or bye weeks leave you short on options. His role isn’t going anywhere, and it will be enough to bail you out in times of need.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. SEA)

Week 6 was finally a breakout for Robinson this season, and I don’t care that it came against the Panthers – we have to start somewhere. He totaled 105 yards and a pair of scores in the easy win and now gets a Seattle defense that is taking on water.

The Seahawks have allowed a running back to clear 70 rushing yards six times this season, and Robinson is pretty clearly the favorite to do that this week. If the carry count can stabilize in the 14-17 range alongside his 3-5 targets, I see no reason why Robinson can’t return RB1 value moving forward, even with the acknowledgment that Tyler Allgeier isn’t going away.

With a player like this, it only requires a minor uptick in usage to make a huge difference on the fantasy scoreboard. This season, he’s producing 16.4% over expectation (2023: 0.8% below), and with 41.5% of his rush attempts picking up at least five yards, I feel confident in saying that his best days are ahead of him in 2024.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at PIT)

Allen was on the field for just 18.6% of New York’s offensive snaps last week against the Bills, his first time under 25% since his NFL debut. With Robert Saleh fired, the offense ran through Breece Hall, and I’m projecting that to be the case moving forward.

Allen is still a viable handcuff, but with the addition of Davante Adams to an offense that was already low in play count, Allen’s path to stand-alone value has all but disappeared. He’s a good player and might be a decent buy in dynasty formats after a few slow weeks, but in re-draft, his window to be an asset is closing in a hurry.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. CAR)

A right knee injury kept Robinson out of practice last week and resulted in his first DNP of the season. He was clearly limited in the Week 5 blowout win over the Browns, so it was telling that the team still elected to use him in scoring situations (two touchdowns).

B-Rob has scored in four of five games this season and has produced 9.1% over fantasy expectations. We’ve seen his vision make nice strides this season from last (yards per carry before contact up 31.4%), and in an offense that can produce in many ways, that growth is great to see.

You’ll want to make sure Robinson is back on the practice field ahead of this difficult matchup. Assuming that he is, he’s worked himself into the must-start tier at the position.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at PIT)

From an extended week to injuries on the other side, everything lined up for Hall to have a strong night on Monday against the Bills — and guess what?

A talented running back in an elite spot came through; don’t you love it when that happens?

Hall racked up 169 scrimmage yards on 23 touches against the division rival, and it was the second time this season that he had both a 30-yard run and a 20-yard catch. The matchup with the Steelers is nothing like what we saw last week, and the addition of Davante Adams only adds to the number of moving pieces, but the talent is worthy of your trust in an offense that should be moving in the right direction, even if the overall production isn’t off the charts this weekend.

You paid top dollar so that Hall could give you a chance to win a title. With the Seahawks-Dolphins-Jaguars-Rams-Bills over the final five weeks of the fantasy season, he still might well deliver on that hope.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. BAL)

Irving had been working his way into a timeshare in this backfield, and when given the opportunity to be featured last week with Rachaad White ruled out (foot), the rookie didn’t miss. He turned 16 touches into 105 yards and a touchdown, producing 24.5% over expectation in the beatdown of the Saints.

My metrics are great, but nothing in a spreadsheet can properly detail the stiff arm of the year that he handed out, so when you’re setting lineups this week, I suggest having that on a loop to remind you of what he can do.

one of the most casually violent stiff arms you'll ever see from Bucky Irving pic.twitter.com/VHpXSZ4IQD

— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) October 14, 2024

This, of course, is a tougher matchup. Not only are the Ravens among the best at stopping the run, but I have serious questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to get Derrick Henry off the field. The schedule does Irving no favors over the next month, and that may create something of a buying window when the Bucs go on bye in Week 11.

• Week 12 at Giants
• Week 13 at Panthers
• Week 14 vs. Raiders
• Week 15 at Chargers
• Week 16 at Cowboys
• Week 17 vs. Panthers

If this backfield is his for that stretch, he’s going to project as a top-15 play with the potential to carry you to a championship.

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (vs. DET)

In Weeks 3-5, Akers averaged a pair of targets per game while producing 11.1% over expectation on his touches in a more featured role with Joe Mixon banged up. A shift to Minnesota puts him behind a similarly oft-injured veteran running back, though this time as a part of an offense that currently ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation.

There is certainly some wait-and-see potential here — the Vikings are coming off of their bye, and that means 12 straight weeks of games for a lead back that has missed multiple games in five of seven seasons. The lack of versatility in Akers’ profile creates a limited ceiling, but the touch floor would slide him in as a low-end RB2 as part of a productive offense should Aaron Jones miss time.

In the scope of Week 7, assuming that Jones is deemed to be healthy, Akers offers no lineup appeal against a slightly above-average Lions defense.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at CLE)

Brown seems to have usurped Zack Moss as the lead man in Cincinnati’s backfield (61.5% snap share last week against the Giants), and there is a bullish case to be made for the second half of the season as he has produced at least 14.7% over expectation in five straight contests.

As he has wrestled this primary role away from Moss, Brown has scored in three straight games (all top 24 fantasy finishes), recorded a 15+ yard rush in four straight, and caught multiple balls in five of six.

Brown’s versatility and explosive playmaking potential are assets on this pass-first team that, in spite of what we saw on Sunday night, will need to threaten 30 points most weeks to remain competitive.

Without the ability to assume north of 15 touches, Brown is only a Flex play for me this week, though I could see him moving into the top 20 at the position sooner rather than later.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at WAS)

The Panthers were blasted in the season opener. The Saints hung 47 points on them and Hubbard touched the ball only six times in a game that was over before many had realized it had started.

Let’s say you benched Hubbard the following week because of Bryce Young, then you saw enough in the loss (6.4 yards per carry with five targets) to play him in Week 3. That means that, in the four games in which you’ve started Carolina’s lead back, you have a back who is pacing for 1,730 rushing yards and 72 receptions.

There has never been a 1,700/70 season in the history of the NFL.

The Commanders have allowed at least 14.5 fantasy points to a running back in five of six contests this season, slowing only a Browns offense that has gotten it its own way as much as anyone up to this point.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (at MIN)

Is there an easier player to project right now than Montgomery? He’s as good a bet to be in that 13-18 touch range with slightly above-average efficiency and a rushing touchdown as anyone in the league.

The last part would normally scare me, but that would be ignoring the facts. The last regular-season game in which Montgomery failed to score came against a Denver Broncos team that was led in passing (Russell Wilson), rushing (Samje Perine), and receiving (Jerry Jeudy) that day by players no longer with the franchise.

Montgomery has multiple red-zone touches in every game this season. What might surprise you is that he has the fifth-highest boom/bust rate (rate of 10+ yard carries compared to the rate of carries that failed to gain yardage) in the league since joining Detroit (Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, teammate Jahmyr Gibbs, and Aaron Jones rank 1-4).

Montgomery, of course, scored in both games against Minnesota a season ago, though it’s worth noting that none of his 27 carries in those games gained even a dozen yards, and only once this season has a running back reached 12 PPR points against the undefeated Vikings (Jordan Mason, 17.4).

What does all that mean? Maybe it’s closer to a floor than a ceiling spot for the veteran, but Montgomery’s floor in 2024 is a top-20 producer at the position and a starter in all formats.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at TB)

We are running out of superlatives when it comes to Henry and his production as a Raven.

OK, so that’s a lie. We are never going to run out of positive notes for someone producing at this level. Here is some information from our weekly NFL Week 7 Stats and Insights piece:

“The Ravens have rattled off four straight wins, and if you extend Derrick Henry’s rushing production for those contests over an entire season, he will finish with 2,440 rushing yards (NFL record: 2,105) and 25.5 rushing touchdowns (NFL record: 28).”

The Buccaneers aren’t the stout run defense they were a season ago (27th in EPA and four instances in which an opposing running back has reached 17 fantasy points), making this another smash spot for the King.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. PHI)

The groin injury has resulted in consecutive DNPs for Singletary, and given the rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s production (35 carries for 179 yards and three scores, not to mention seven grabs), the odds of this team slow-playing the recovery are increasing.

Singletary has struggled in this limited offense (3.9 yards per carry), and this isn’t exactly a great spot for a back without form or full health. The Eagles have faced Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Alvin Kamara — they’ve yet to allow more than 16.2 PPR points to a single running back this season.

At best, Singletary is a bench and hold. If he’s healthy and used behind Tracy, there’s a world in which he is on the chopping block soon.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at IND)

Achane was knocked out of Week 5 with a concussion. While that typically comes with a minimum of one DNP, the Week 6 bye came at the perfect time. You’ll want to follow Pro Football Network’s Miami Dolphins reporter Adam Beasley’s work when it comes to this situation, but I’m operating under the assumption that he will be available and ready to lead this backfield.

This is truly the measure of which unit is more inept – Achane hasn’t posted a top-30 finish since Tua Tagovailoa went down, but the Colts are as friendly to opposing running games as anyone, having already allowed seven backs to reach double-digit PPR fantasy points (Joe Mixon and Tank Bigsby both lit them up for over 25 points).

In a league geared toward the offense, I tend to lean in that direction in matchups like this, and that is how I land with Achane as a top-15 option. He’s like Saquon Barkley in that every touch is a touch in scoring position, and with 21 catches on 23 targets this season, his efficiency in the passing game should be enough to land him in starting lineups at the bare minimum.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (at ARI)

Do you know those movie scenes where the main character is “hot” at the craps table and rolling in the money? If so, then you’re probably familiar with the down-on-his-luck scene that comes 60-90 minutes later.

I can’t help but feel like Dobbins’ managers are approaching the confusing middle ground, between the elation and the bewilderment. Gus Edwards (ankle) was put on injured reserve last week, and Jim Harbaugh put the ball in the belly of his lead back 25 times, eight more than his previous career high. In fact, three of his seven highest carry counts for his career have come this season.

But can he sustain? With another 12 carries, he will have the second-most voluminous season on the ground of his career. With one-third of Dobbins’ carries over the past two contests failing to gain yardage, that down-on-his-luck scene could be closer than we want to believe.

He’s still a low-end RB2 for me in the scope of Week 7, as he’s facing the fourth-worst rush defense in terms of success rate. But be careful in assuming that you can ride this gravy train to the finish line.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at MIN)

The sap share and raw fantasy point totals this year mirror that of Gibbs’ standout rookie campaign, but there have been incremental signs of growth that have me optimistic that the best could be yet to come from this explosive back.

Through six games this season, his fantasy points per target are up 34.1% while being stopped at the line of scrimmage less often and picking up 10+ yards at a higher rate. A true explosion is unlikely to happen as long as David Montgomery is active (over 16 touches just once this season), but there is value in stability, and we are getting that as a part of one of the league’s best offenses.

Gibbs impressed in Week 16’s win last season in Minnesota (100 yards on 19 touches), and while I’m not projecting that touch count, another efficient afternoon should be in store for what could be the best game of the week.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (at NO)

The second-year pro out of Youngstown appears to be a legitimate NFL talent, but we aren’t in the talent evaluation business as much as we are in the number accumulation business. A 5-10-touch role in a well-below-average offense isn’t going to get it done.

I don’t mind the strategy behind holding him, in fact, I actually endorse it. While I don’t think there’s a world in which you’re playing him right now, the man ahead of him on the depth chart is a flight risk and there are games against the Colts and Bengals looming during the fantasy postseason.

James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. LAC)

Reports surfaced following Sunday’s loss that Conner’s limited reps in the second half were not the result of a nagging injury but a decision the team made based on the script of the game.

Well, that’s not good.

To be honest with you, I would have rather heard that he was dealing with an injury and the team wanted to save him for a quarter of winnable games on deck as they try to save their season.

The Chargers own the best EPA rush defense in the league, and after a hot start to the season (consecutive top 10s), Conner’s average weekly finish is RB30. I think it’s safe to say that things are trending in the wrong direction for the veteran, but I wouldn’t dismiss him quickly like what we’ve done with Rachaad White.

Conner has produced 11.1% over his expectations this season and has continued to score at a high level in our elusive metric. He remains a top-20 running back for me this season and moving forward, even if it’s closer to RB20 than RB10.

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. TEN)

Cook entered Monday Night Football with a questionable tag due to a toe injury and was ruled out 90 minutes before kickoff, marking his first DNP of his young career. It’s obviously a short work week heading into this game with the Titans, but his sitting last week (hopefully it didn’t cost you your matchup!) helps his prospects this week as he was thought to be on the right side of questionable.

How you value Cook in this matchup largely depends on how you see the game script playing out. In three blowouts (two wins and one loss), Buffalo’s RB1 averaged 12.3 touches, but in the two close games in which he was a part, he handled 22 touches in both.

My general thought is that this game would skew toward a competitive game due to how Tennessee looks to limit the possession count (31st in pace) — that’s the good news. The bad news is that this Titans run defense is far from a pushover.

Through six weeks, they rank third in rush defense EPA, and that’s not a noisy stat as much as I’ve been dismissing what Seattle has done up to this point. De’Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, and D’Andre Swift combined to turn 38 touches into just 16.7 PPR fantasy points against this group — that doesn’t happen by accident.

There’s a tier of featured backs in tough spots this week (James Conner, Najee Harris, and Kareem Hunt), and Cook lands right in the middle of them as a part of my low-end RB2 tier for Week 7.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at NO)

Williams may only have one finish better than RB25 on his résumé this season, but he’s earned 24 targets over the past month and is still atop Sean Payton’s running back depth chart.

This team appears committed to Bo Nix for 2024, and while that is a risk, there’s a world in which he improves down the stretch and the lead back in this offense offers weekly RB2 value. We saw the Saints get torched last week by anyone the Bucs wanted to hand the ball to (Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving combined for 217 yards and two touchdowns on the ground), the continuation of a key weakness in New Orleans and its third-worst rush defense by EPA this season.

Much like Rhamondre Stevenson (at JAX), Williams isn’t a fun click in an offense led by a rookie, but I think you could do worse; in a Flex situation, I don’t mind the touch floor that he offers over a boom-or-bust receiver.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at IND)

Wright’s profile in Miami’s offense is exciting, and we saw glimpses of it in the Dolphins’ Week 5 win over the Patriots (13 carries for 86 yards) after De’Von Achane left with a concussion.

The expectation is for Achane to return this week, and with Raheem Mostert active in an offense that appears destined to be stuck in the mud until Tua Tagovailoa returns, there’s no space for the rookie to carve out a fantasy-relevant niche at the moment, even in a great matchup.

That’s not to say that Wright isn’t deserving of a roster spot. Should Achane suffer a setback this week or struggle to pass protect, I’d have Wright ranked over Mostert as the most valuable member of the backfield and an RB2.

Even if all three RBs are healthy this week, that assures us of nothing long-term, and that is the case for stashing Wright. We think better days are ahead for Miami’s offense as a whole, and Mostert/Achane remain health risks.

Jerome Ford, RB | CLE (vs. CIN)

A hamstring yanked Ford off the field early in the losing effort to the Eagles on Sunday, and with Nick Chubb expected to make his season debut, his time as a Flex option has come to an end.

I wouldn’t cut ties with him given Chubb’s uncertainty, but he’s now strictly a handcuff that is highly unlikely to hold stand-alone value in a below-average offense as a secondary back.

Even if the injury results in missed time, I’m holding Ford. I don’t think he’s a special player, but there’s a path to work for him that doesn’t include much to happen and the Browns face the Bengals/Dolphins during the fantasy Super Bowl. Ford is unlikely to get back into my lineup this season, but the small chance that he is the lead back at the perfect time is enough to hold my interest for now.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at GB)

In a perfect world, when we get running backs returning from injury, they are deployed the way Mixon was in Week 6. After sitting for nearly a month, the veteran was featured with 15 touches, and he earned every ounce of that work (132 yards and two touchdowns).

Dameon Pierce added a 54-yard touchdown run after this game was in hand, and while you obviously don’t get credit for that, it was another positive sign for this offensive line. The Texans were a much more neutral offense through two weeks with Mixon active than they were following the injury; with Nico Collins on the shelf for at least another three games, Mixon is a must-start across all formats until otherwise noted.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. MIA)

This ankle injury has now cost Taylor consecutive games, and a third straight is now confirmed — as the team wants to enter a divisional matchup in Week 8 (at Houston) near full strength.

Taylor’s situation was pretty cut-and-dry: If the Colts were to activate him, I was doing the same. There is the Rhamondre Stevenson class of running back where I’m willing to wait and see, but JT was comfortably ahead of that (he was a top-12 running back in his two games) range.

The Dolphins have allowed at least 18 fantasy points to a running back four times in five games this season (the one instance where that wasn’t the case was a game against the Jags in which Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby combined for 19.2 points).

This is a soft landing spot, and one which I would have felt good about if Taylor was able to return to the practice field this week.

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (vs. KC)

Mason entered Week 6 having been an RB1 in three of five games and was running well (82 yards on 10 touches) before suffering a shoulder injury. Kyle Shanahan sounded optimistic about his lead running back during the halftime interview, but after handling the first carry of the third quarter, Mason’s evening was done.

Rookie Isaac Guerendo picked up the slack (10 carries for 99 yards, a stat line that would have included a score if he elected to finish a 76-yard run instead of kneeling just shy to help ice the game) and is a deserving addition in all formats.

As good as Christian McCaffrey is, we have an extended sample of running backs in this system thriving, and should Mason sit this week, Guerendo’s path to a featured role is about as clear as it gets (Patrick Taylor Jr. would be RB2 on the depth chart in this instance).

The matchup is a concern. Bijan Robinson scored 13.2 PPR points against the Chiefs in Week 3, serving as the high water mark for the position against the defending champs this season (limiting J.K. Dobbins and Zack Moss is one thing, but Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have both also played the Chiefs this season). In fact, the Henry, Robinson, and Kamara trio totaled 40 carries in their K.C. matchup and none of them had a 10-yard rush.

What we saw from Guerendo last week is enough for me to drop my touch projection for Mason, even if completely cleared, but that’s nitpicking. Mason (5.3 yards per carry this season with an 18+ yard touch in every game this season) will be ranked closer to RB12 than RB5 if he’s active, and Guerendo shifts from off my radar to a mid-range RB2 if the lead role is handed over to him.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. HOU)

Jacobs’ role isn’t a concern in the least (19.8 touches per game), but he’s been inefficient, something that he’s been for the majority of his career. In five of six games this season, he’s produced more than 10% below expectation, a problem given the play of Jordan Love and the potential for this team to embrace an increase in pass rate.

On a positive note, the Packers schemed up a pass play for Jacobs inside the Cardinals’ 30-yard line on Sunday, a sign that they believe he can be a part of this offense in a variety of ways (10 targets in the three games since Love returned). It’s clear that Green Bay believes in Emanuel Wilson, as he continues to get first-quarter work. But with Jacobs’ feature role not in any doubt, you can continue to run him out there with confidence.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at SF)

Hunt was nothing short of impressive against the Saints on Monday Night Football before the Week 6 bye (117 yards and a score on 28 touches, good for RB5 honors) and while the production was promising, I was more encouraged by him being given 84.4% of the running back carries.

It stands to reason that Hunt is still rounding into form, so I’m not yet sweating the fact that none of his 41 rush attempts have gained 10 yards. The 49ers rank 12th in rush defense EPA and fifth in yards per carry allowed to running backs before contact, two limiting factors when trying to get a feel for Hunt’s upside.

At the tail end of my RB2 tier sits featured backs that I don’t feel great about, and Hunt is smack dab in the middle of that range (for reference, Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins are also a part of that mix).

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at ATL)

Walker has been very Alvin Kamara-ish this season, and that’s as high a compliment I can pay to a fantasy running back. Much like Kamara under Derek Carr, Walker is either the focal point of Geno Smith’s offense when the game is close or the preferred option when playing from behind.

Walker’s PPR totals by week:

• Week 1: 16.3 rushing points
• Week 4: 24.0 rushing points
• Week 5: 12.7 receiving points
• Week 6: 11.7 receiving points

Kamara did a bit of both in his Week 4 meeting with the Falcons (77 rushing yards and a TD with seven catches for 42 yards) in a close game, a script that I like to mirror this one with Seattle on extended rest.

Walker is an RB1 for me in all formats this week and will be heavily featured in my Main Slate DFS lineups.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. LV)

Williams has been nothing short of great this season despite the number of moving pieces through the first month and a half of the season. He’s posted back-to-back-to-back top-13 finishes at the position (RB3 in total PPR points from Weeks 3-5), producing 21.1% over expectation during those games.

Some might worry about Cooper Kupp’s potential return and the Rams’ move from a below-average pass rate over expectation to an above-average one, but I’m taking the opposite approach.

This season, Williams has run into a loaded box 33.7% of the time, more than double his rate from a season ago (16.7%). I’m happy to sacrifice a touch or two if it means backing defenses off the line of scrimmage.

The Rams should be able to move the ball on Sunday, and any week in which that is the case, the scoring equity puts Williams into my top 10 without much concern.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. NYJ)

The touchdown was a thing of beauty as Harris flashed the type of agility that we’ve wanted to see from him for years.

NAJEE HARRIS ARE YOU SERIOUS!?

📺: #PITvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6uP3rKdzdD

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

In total, he wrung up 122 yards against the Raiders on 16 touches. It was easily his best performance of the season (his longest gain and his first touchdown) and he draws a Jets defense that is on short rest after giving up 152 yards to Ray Davis on Monday night.

The likely move to Russell Wilson adds scoring equity to Harris’ portfolio, and with Jaylen Warren carrying six times for just seven yards last week, we might just have a bell cow in Pittsburgh.

For the season as a whole, the Jets are an average run defense and Harris is an average back in terms of efficiency. I worry that this is a low-possession game, and that caps the upside for all players involved, but I’m looking for Harris to assume roughly 70% of the running back carries in this coin-flip game; that results in an average RB2 ranking on my end.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. CIN)

Chubb is expected to take the field on Sunday, 398 days since the last time we had the pleasure of seeing him on the field. It’s a plus matchup (the Bengals have allowed over 21 fantasy points to an RB three times this season: Tyrone Tracy Jr. last week and both Rhamondre Stevenson and Chuba Hubbard before that), and Jerome Ford is banged up, but after the Amari Cooper trade on Tuesday, it’s clear that this franchise isn’t too focused on 2024.

I have Chubb penciled in to lead this backfield in carries this week, but I’d be shocked if they gave him anything close to a full workload. I’m hopeful that our patience up to this point on Chubb is rewarded with late-season usage, but he’s certainly the type of back for whom I’ll wait to have proof of health instead of trying to get ahead of it.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. BAL)

A foot injury kept White out of action last week and allowed Bucky Irving to continue to impress (24.5% production over expectation in the blowout of the Saints). The dangerous carries were trending in the direction of the rookie before the injury, and I think it’s now safe to label this as a flipped backfield.

White has produced 18% under expectation this season and averages just 3.7 yards per carry across his 39 NFL games. He’s a viable situational back, but are we sure there is anything on a football field that he does better than Irving? When you factor in a handful of Sean Tucker touches that now seem inevitable, White, who was a third-round pick less than two months ago, shouldn’t be in consideration for your starting lineup.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at IND)

After missing nearly a month, the Dolphins leaned heavily on Mostert in Week 5, giving him 21 touches in the win over New England despite a very modest 54.7% snap share. Of course, Achane’s concussion is what fueled the usage, but it was good to see Miami confident in his health, which gives us some hope for the remainder of the season.

Seeing “at IND” next to a player is going to create the desire to lock him into your lineup, but I can’t get there in this Tyler Huntley-led offense. If Tua was under center, I’d green light starting multiple backs against the defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry after contact to opposing running backs. However, with limited scoring equity, I can’t get Mostert inside of my top 30.

This week, he falls into the Zach Charbonnet bucket of running backs where you can play him if absolutely pressed, but one that I’d be moving away from in anything but a dire situation.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. TEN)

Ty Johnson got the start for James Cook on Monday night, but Davis was the featured man on the first drive. Johnson was later the recipient of Josh Allen’s longest pass ever to a running back, a 42-yard scramble drill that only works when you have a superhero under center like Buffalo has the luxury of.

Cook wasn’t far from suiting up for Week 6 — that leads me to believe that he gives it a go this week. But with last week serving as clarity when it comes to the hierarchy of this backfield, Davis is a must-roster player.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. JAX)

The Jaguars have plenty of problems, but they are contacting running backs, on average, less than 2.5 yards downfield, a rate that ranks behind only elite run defenses in Baltimore and Kansas City. With Stevenson trying to come back from a foot injury and producing the worst per-play EPA mark of his career, he’s far from a safe play should he suit up.

Assuming he is back in the mix, his three top-12 finishes this season earn him the nod as a Flex option ahead of Antonio Gibson, though the range of outcomes is wide in a new-look offense that offers more athleticism under center.

Gibson has been productive enough to continue to see 8-12 touches, a role that is just annoying enough to hold Stevenson back from RB2 status, but not enough to hold standalone value in an offense that is still limited.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. NYG)

Among RBs, only Aaron Jones has cleared 14.6 fantasy points against the Giants this season, and Barkley hasn’t been a top-20 producer at the position in consecutive games after three straight top 10s to open his career as an Eagle.

Relax. This happens to just about every running back at one point or another during the long season.

The problem last week was with the offensive line — Barkley picked up one foot (not a yard, a foot) per carry before contact. The overall production of the Philadelphia line might prove to be a conversation point, but I’m not worried about it against a defense that allows the fourth-most yards per carry to running backs before contact.

We’ve seen it plenty in the past: Barkley only needs one carry to offset a dozen bad ones. I like his chances of hitting a home run in this matchup and think he could produce top-10 numbers even without one as long as the Eagles can control this game as a three-point road favorite.

Sean Tucker, RB | TB (vs. BAL)

I’ve gotten a lot of questions about the former Syracuse product this week after his role in the beatdown of the Saints last week, and while I was impressed, I’m not sure it means anything moving forward.

Todd Bowles stirred up the conversation when he mentioned being impressed with Tucker and having a “three-headed monster” when it comes to the backfield. It’s not that I don’t believe him, I just have a hard time seeing the second-year back out-earn Bucky Irving or Rachaad White (Week 6 DNP, foot), and a handful of touches per week isn’t roster-worthy.

If we were to get word that White’s injury is more serious than initially thought, then we can talk, but in today’s NFL, supporting two running backs is an uphill battle for most offenses, let alone three. I resisted the urge to add Tucker this week off waivers — as a free add, there’s no real cost incurred, but burning a waiver priority or FAAB isn’t worth it in my opinion.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. NE)

With Travis Etienne Jr. now being labeled as “week-to-week,” this is the time for Bigsby to shine. The game script won’t be an issue because the Patriots have yet to prove capable of scoring points in a neutral game state against just about anyone, meaning a career touch count isn’t just possible, it’s projected.

Despite limited usage, he already has four gains of 25+ yards with plenty of that work coming after the defense got to him. On his 41 carries this season, 80.8% of his yards have come after contact. That could be spun a variety of ways, but in this matchup, I’m not sure it matters as the Pats rank 26th in running back yards allowed both before and after contact.

The lack of prowess in the passing game (one target this season) is what keeps him outside of my top 15, but he’s pretty clearly a strong RB2 in all formats for as long as Etienne is on the shelf (Jacksonville gets Green Bay next week and travels to Philadelphia for Week 9).

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at BUF)

Pollard has four top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé, with the lone exception being the result of the game script: Tennessee ran the ball just 11 times against the Packers in Week 3 in a 16-point loss.

In short, Pollard has been much closer to the weekly option that we assumed he was going to be a season ago (2.2% over expectation this season compared to 16.4% below with the Cowboys in 2023). He’s been running as hard as anyone in the league through six weeks (4.04 yards per carry after contact), putting him in position to produce a strong stat line against a Bills defense that allows the third-most yards to backs before contact per carry.

I’ll stop shy of saying that he puts up 169 yards on Buffalo like Breece Hall did on Monday night, but if Tennessee can keep this game competitive, a top-10 performance is a reasonable expectation.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. NE)

Doug Pederson came out on Monday and labeled Etienne as “week-to-week” as a result of a hamstring injury suffered early in Week 5.

Thank God.

Not that he’s hurt, but that we don’t have to worry about touch distribution in Jacksonville’s backfield for Week 7. When both Etienne and Tank Bigsby are healthy, this is going to be a difficult situation to project, but it’s rare for a player to be labeled “week-to-week” and not miss at least some time.

As for Etienne’s profile, your eyes aren’t deceiving you — he’s not the same guy he was last season:

• -17.2% production compared to expectation (2023: +8.5%)
• 1.09 fantasy points per target (2023: 1.58)
• 2.43 yards per carry after contact (2023: 2.87)

We will have to struggle with his ranking in future weeks, but Etienne should remain rostered as he recovers from this injury.

Trey Sermon, RB | IND (vs. MIA)

Sermon has more than a 2:1 carry edge over Tyler Goodson over the two weeks as a replacement option for Jonathan Taylor, but that role might not last much longer. Over that stretch, he’s turned 28 carries into just 67 yards, while Goodson’s 13 totes have netted 77 yards (Goodson also out-targeted Sermon 5-0 last week).

The scary part? The deeper you dive into Sermon’s rushing profile, the worse it gets. Across those two starts, 41.8% of his rushing yards came on two carries, and for the season, 37.8% of his attempts have failed to gain yardage.

In theory, the game script shouldn’t be a massive issue in this game. But if the touches aren’t productive, I don’t care how many looks he gets. With Taylor sitting, Sermon is a bail-me-out-of-trouble Flex option at best.

Ty Chandler, RB | MIN (vs. DET)

Chandler was unable to impress in London (Week 5), picking up just 30 yards on 14 carries as Aaron Jones departed with a hip injury against the Jets. In fact, Chandler has struggled to live up to the promise that he showed last season (4.5 yards per carry) for the majority of 2024 — under 2.5 ypc in four of five contests.

Chandler’s role with an active Jones isn’t near fantasy-worthy right now, and I don’t expect that to change. That said, Jones is far from a lock to play on Sunday, and Chandler did carry 14 times for 69 yards against the Lions in Week 18 last season. Should he be named the starter, Chandler will rank as a viable Flex play in a game that should see points put on the board.

Ty Johnson, RB | BUF (vs. TEN)

Johnson got the first carry on Monday night and that means he was the starter, but that title didn’t prove descriptive as Ray Davis out-touched him 10-4 through the first three drives. I tend to believe the lopsided early work was more the result of identifying a hot hand than anything else. But the usage was telling and paints the picture of Johnson being multiple injuries away from a viable role.

I’d want to make sure that James Cook is trending toward playing before cutting Johnson, but once we get that sort of report, you can feel fine about moving on.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at BUF)

We were all impressed with Spears as a third-round rookie, as he gave the Titans no choice but to keep him involved, even in an offense that revolved around Derrick Henry. With Henry taking his talents to Baltimore this offseason and Tennessee making moves to suggest an opening up of their offense, Spears was labeled as a sleeper candidate for many, especially with Tony Pollard coming off of a poor season as the Cowboys’ featured back.

As it turns out, Tennessee likes Spears in his limited and not fantasy-friendly role. He’s cleared eight touches just once this season and is now battling a hamstring injury that sounds like it’ll sideline him for at least a week … if not more.

If you’ve been holding out hope, you can cut ties. The lack of Spears over the next two games makes Pollard even more appealing, as Tennessee’s best defense on the road in Buffalo and Detroit might be a ball-control offense.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. SEA)

Do we owe Arthur Smith an apology?

Allgeier is the clear leader in our boom/bust metric (simply the rate of 10+ yard rushes compared to the rate of carries that failed to gain yardage) at 5.9% and is fresh off of his first top-30 fantasy finish of the season.

Allgeier’s snap-rate splits:

• Weeks 1-3: 20.7%
• Weeks 4-6: 38.5%

We aren’t yet to the point where I’m ranking him as a viable stand-alone asset (Week 6 was his first game with more than 10 touches this season), but we aren’t far from it. It wouldn’t shock me if he was again productive against an overrated Seahawks defense that gave up 228 yards on the ground last week to the 49ers.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. PHI)

Devin Singletary’s status obviously dictates much of the math here, but how can we not be surprised by the kid? Tracy posted the first Giants RB finish inside the top 10 this season (107 total yards and a touchdown) against the Bengals and has been a top-20 producer at the position in both of his starts.

This is one of those unique situations when it comes to rankings. If Singletary plays, I’d have him tentatively penciled in as the starter in an average Flex play. If he sits, Tracy vaults into my RB2 tier, as it would mean a featured role against a defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed per carry before contact to running backs this season.

This is shaping up to be a true “if you have two, you don’t have any” situation where the presence of both results in a lack of stability given the unknown touch distribution.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at ATL)

Charbonnet is averaging seven touches per game when Walker starts this season (20 per game in the two contests as the lead RB). But while Charbonnet runs hard, he simply doesn’t have the ball enough to hold Flex appeal.

The second-year back is a top-five handcuff in the NFL right now, and that makes him very much worthy of rostering. If injuries are ravaging your roster, Charbonnet comes in below receivers with a consistent role in a good spot when it comes to my Flex rankings (behind names like Ladd McConkey, Jerry Jeudy, or Dontayvion Wicks).

Zack Moss, RB | CIN (at CLE)

Moss played over 58% of the snaps in each of the first five weeks this season, peaking at 82% in Week 2’s loss to the Chiefs. But his rate checked in at 46.2% last week and has him fading out of lineups.

With this being a committee, Moss deserves to remain on rosters, if for no other reason than he is an injury to Chase Brown away from a featured role on a top-10 offense. That said, if the touch count is capped, we need a level of rushing upside that we simply haven’t seen this season. Moss doesn’t yet have a 10-yard rush in October or a 20-yard carry this season, leading me to believe that this is Brown’s role until proven otherwise.

The Browns’ defense is as stingy as years past, but only once this season has a running back hit 15 PPR points against them this season (Devin Singletary). I find it unlikely that Cincinnati will add a name to that list with a nearly even split.

Zamir White, RB | LV (at LAR)

A nagging groin injury cost White his second consecutive game, and while this is a plus matchup, rostering him is aggressive, let alone starting him.

This summer, the idea behind drafting White was based solely on volume. We saw the Raiders give him 20+ touches in four straight games to end last season with Josh Jacobs sidelined. Thus, we assumed that, given White’s ADP, simply holding onto that role would be enough to return value.

White hasn’t been productive when active (3.1 yards per carry with his last catch coming more than a month ago), and the role is no longer a certainty. If you’re holding onto White, it’s more of a statement on the lack of options on your waiver wire than any level of confidence that he walks back into an impactful role moving forward.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (at NYG)

It took Brown all of 15 minutes to warm up in his return to action last week. After a catch-less first quarter, Brown burned Cleveland for 116 yards and a score on six grabs. It wasn’t just the production after a month’s hiatus that was impressive, it was the timing of execution/importance of those catches.

The touchdown last week came on a picture-perfect fade, and Jalen Hurts dropped a pass into the bucket for a 40-yard gain to close out the win. The Giants have had Brown’s number to a degree (he hasn’t scored against the divisional foe since Dec. 11, 2022, a run of 22 scoreless targets), but the current version of this defense doesn’t scare me. Everything we saw last week indicates that this alpha is at full strength.

Three times over the past four weeks a receiver caught at least seven passes against New York, and they all carried a nice size profile (Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins). Brown is a Tier 1 receiver moving forward and is certainly in the mix to lead the position in fantasy points this week.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (vs. MIA)

We fundamentally approach fantasy sports differently if you’re considering starting Pierce this week or, to be honest, almost any week when the team is at full strength. Yes, Joe Flacco missed him on what could have been a 60-yard score last week, but that’s the nature of the business when running vertical routes.

Pierce earned 10 targets in 54 routes through the first two weeks of the season, but he’s seen just 11 on 118 routes since, a lack of consistency that makes him near impossible to project with consistency.

Obviously, Anthony Richardson is a better fit for a skill set like that of Pierce. But if your bail-out option is relying on the second-year QB as a thrower of the football, you’re swimming upstream. This season, just 55.9% of yards gained against the Dolphins come through the air, the third-lowest rate and yet another reason to sit Pierce. I’d rather roll the dice on Gabe Davis if you’re in the business of overlooking risk.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. TEN)

During his time in Cleveland this season, Cooper had as many targets as their next two leaders in receiving yards have combined (53). While I don’t think the quantity of attempts reflects that in Buffalo, the spike in quality of opportunity should far outweigh that.

With the Browns (2022-24), Cooper produced 56.4% over expectation on passes thrown 20+ yards down the field, a rate that checks in ahead of both of Josh Allen’s primary weapons over that stretch (Stefon Diggs was +34.9% and Gabe Davis +40.3%). Even with those two receivers moving on, Joe Brady has Allen’s average depth of throw up 19.5% this season from last and pacing for a career-high.

Remember way back in 2022 when A.J. Brown came to Philadelphia from a questionable offense in Tennessee? He was a top-15 receiver in five of his first eight games with the team and WR10 over his first 11 games with the team — there are 11 games left in the regular season for the Bills. Guess who was WR9 over that stretch?

Amari Cooper.

He has one top-40 finish this season, and I’m willing to write that off as 100% situational. He’s a top-20 receiver for me this week if he debuts and a top-20 option at the position for the remainder of the season.

And I may not be high enough.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (at MIN)

From average depth of target to fantasy production over expectation to target rate, everything St. Brown has done through six weeks aligns with his career norms, so no. No, I’m not lowering my position on him because Jameson Williams leads this team in receiving yards and has matched St. Brown in the touchdown department.

Jared Goff might be playing the best football of his life right now, and that means spreading the ball around a bit. St. Brown has more first-down receptions than Williams has total catches this season, so I’m not even entertaining the idea that there is a new WR1 in Detroit and am thus confident in projecting elite output moving forward.

That “elite production” I’m referencing has a great chance to start this week when facing a Vikings team against which he has 48 catches and 62 targets across six career meetings. I think both Lions receivers are starting-lineup-worthy in this spot (there have been 10 instances in five games in which a receiver cleared 11 fantasy points against Minnesota), but I’m going to continue to lean on the more consistent of the two as my primary bet.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR | SF (vs. KC)

After a Week 5 breakout against the Cardinals (8-147-0 on a 37.5% target share), expectations were high against a Seahawks team that struggles to defend perimeter receivers. Two catches and 37 yards later, all of us with exposure to Aiyuk were let down significantly to kick off last week.

Aiyuk didn’t have much of a preseason, and while I don’t doubt that it affected his form, I think the greater impact of his absence was Purdy’s time to develop chemistry in this system and with other pass catchers.

Aiyuk saw just one first-half target last Thursday night, suggesting that getting him looks wasn’t a priority in the pre-game script.

Listen, this is San Francisco. We’ve seen this before. Entering the season, my opinion was that after any down week for any of their primary options, take the temperature of your league, and after any spike week for any of their primary options, take the temperature of your league.

Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle are all elite options, and they’re all going to have their moments in the sun.

It’ll be frustrating, but you knew that when you drafted this summer. If you roster Aiyuk, I think you’re playing him every week in which he is active and not thinking twice about it.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (vs. NE)

This kid is all sorts of special, and we’re seeing the sparks of that potential, even in a Jaguars offense that as a whole is struggling.

Thomas had two catches in Jacksonville’s first seven plays last week, but he only had one grab the rest of the way, resulting in fantasy frustrations. Still, the foundation remains.

Thomas dropped what should have been a 15-yard touchdown. If he collects that pass, the story of his Week 6 changes in a significant way.

Remove a slow NFL debut and BTJ is averaging 93.6 air yards per game. Obviously, not all air yards are created equal, but that metric alone has proven pretty predictive. In fact, last season, 13 of the top 19 per-game PPR receivers got to that number on a per-game basis. Thomas is going to be an asset for years to come, but what about Week 7?

Well, it depends on what version of the Patriots shows up. Twice this season (Seattle and Houston) has a team seen multiple receivers clear 18.5 PPR points, a level of production that is off the charts and within the range of outcomes if you’re buying the signs of growth this Jaguars passing game has shown recently (multiple TD passes in three straight games, 73.9% complete over the past two weeks).

Of course, there are two sides to both coins that we are flipping here. Outside of those two matchups, the Patriots haven’t allowed a single receiver to reach 14.5 PPR points, including games facing the 49ers, Bengals, and Dolphins.

While there have been some positive signals for Jacksonville, this is still a 1-5 team that is struggling to put together 60 good minutes. I’m generally bullish on Thomas and have him ranked as a fringe top-20 option at the position in this spot.

Bub Means, WR | NO (vs. DEN)

Bub Means was the standout producer from Week 6 due to the carnage at the WR position for New Orleans in Spencer Rattler’s first start. The fifth-round rookie led the team in targets (eight) and led the secondary receivers in snap share (69.7%) in the blowout loss to the Buccaneers.

He was a big play threat during his collegiate days, an interesting strength, but more for when Derek Carr is back under center. No Saints players had a double-digit aDOT last week, meaning he will need to post another impressive target share to prove deserving of your trust. It was also encouraging to see him lead the team in slot targets, but that role is in flux as this team adjusts to the rash of injuries.

Means is more of an interesting option moving forward than in Week 7. He is projected to score 8.3 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.3 receptions for 36.4 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at BUF)

We’ve all come across an individual who has their job based solely on their last name, right? Sometimes said person is ultra-qualified for the position and other times not so much. But there is no denying that their last name played a big role in the opportunity.

If not for Ridley’s name, would he still be rostered? Since Week 3, he has as many targets as receiving yards (14).

Let me say that another way. Since Week 3, there are only 259 players (minimum two games played over that stretch) averaging more receiving yards than Ridley.

Will Levis’ completion percentage is up eight percentage points from his rookie season, but his decision-making hasn’t progressed the way that we need. With a lower average depth of throw, this version of Levis might actually be less valuable for his receivers.

Ridley shouldn’t be sniffing fantasy lineups at this point, and if you have a pressing need on your roster, cutting ties is certainly deserving of consideration.

Cedrick Wilson Jr., WR | NO (vs. DEN)

Cedrick Wilson Jr. is playing for his third team in four seasons, and while he’s yet to break out, he certainly has the experience edge over these secondary pieces that are being pressed into a greater role. He led the Saints in slot participation in Week 6, and if he can carve out that role, there’s a path to Flex value in the short term.

For his career, Wilson has produced 12.2% over fantasy expectation, and his consistent route running should earn him as good an opportunity to see looks in this offense as anyone. With the most NFL reps under his belt, Wilson should be viewed as the most reliable of the healthy Saint receivers, though his upside is limited.

Wilson is projected to score 4.3 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 1.4 receptions for 17.8 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.

Chris Godwin, WR | TB (vs. BAL)

We were told this offseason that the Bucs had an interest in moving Godwin into more of a full-time slot — and, man, has it paid off!

Godwin ended up posting a huge stat line last week with Mike Evans departing at various times due to injury, but the plan wasn’t much of a secret coming into the game. He had a 50% target share with 19 yards and a touchdown on Tampa Bay’s opening drive, one that is scripted well ahead of time for most teams.

After breaking through multiple tackles, Godwin took a second-down screen pass 55 yards to the house, locking in his third top-10 finish of the season. His name may not “feel” like it fits among the elite producers in the game, but every number suggests that is where Godwin belongs, and who am I to stand in his way?

The Ravens have allowed a receiver to eclipse 17 PPR points six times this season, and as a set, they ran over one-third of their routes from the slot and owned a 10.3-yard aDOT. Godwin could check both of those boxes this week and should continue his march toward a career year across the board.

Chris Olave, WR | NO (vs. DEN)

Olave departed Week 6’s blowout loss early with a concussion and has already been ruled out for this contest (Thursday Night Football). We’ve seen concussion protocol carry an average absence of one game, creating early optimism that New Orleans’ WR1 will be back in Week 8.

Olave has been a top-20 receiver just once this season (Week 4), struggles that are concerning. But if he and Derek Carr return next week for the Chargers game, I’ll be ranking him as a fine WR2 in all formats.

Christian Kirk, WR | JAX (vs. NE)

I was optimistic about this Jags passing attack entering the season, and while that has resulted in some nice production from Brian Thomas Jr., Kirk has left me unsatisfied in half of his games this season (including a 3-39-0 stat line against the Bears last week).

We are approaching Halloween, and yet, 25% of Kirk’s fantasy points have come on two single receptions. In theory, his slot role next to BTJ on the perimeter should come with a reasonable floor, but that just hasn’t been the case in a sporadic Trevor Lawrence season.

With a sub-62% catch rate (2023: 67.1%), Kirk offers more risk than reward weekly. The Patriots have allowed the 10th-highest passer rating when opponents target the slot this season, so there is certainly a path to a WR2 finish for Kirk. That’s enough for him to move into my Flex ranks, though the low floor of this offense as a whole prohibits him from graduating into my WR2 tier in anything but a perfect matchup.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. HOU)

Realistically, what did we learn from Watson’s 3-68-1 afternoon against the Cardinals last week?

In my opinion, all we learned was that he has recovered from the ankle injury that cost him a game. His ability to run by defenses is no secret, making his 44-yard touchdown catch that featured 40 air yards more confirmation of his ability than anything else.

I like that Jordan Love went his direction on a fourth-down play in the first half and sought him out on a single-coverage end-zone target later in that drive — that’s where there is value to be gained in the long term.

In the short term, the high-end top speed might be enough to warrant Flexing him. Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed were banged up at different points of last week’s victory, and even if neither misses time, any limitations on their part open up valuable looks for Watson.

DeMario Douglas (6-92-1) produced against this Houston defense last week, thanks in large part to a 35-yard touchdown. He’s not usually viewed as a big-play threat, but he was able to connect the dots on the long catch and run against a Texans unit that has largely been vulnerable to those receivers with big-play potential (in addition to Douglas, Alec Pierce, Brian Thomas Jr., and Justin Jefferson are the receivers with the best games against Houston through six weeks).

Watson isn’t a ”safe” play because Watson isn’t a “safe” player. Regardless of his health status and matchup, the floor is always going to be low, but you know that as you set your roster. With plenty of fantasy teams nearing desperation mode, this is the type of receiver to gamble on — a strong singular skill that can have success in this specific matchup as a part of an explosive offense.

He’s not for everyone, but if you’re considering firing up Watson this week, it means you’re willing to overlook some flaws.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. LV)

And we are back! Probably. Likely.

This is obviously a situation to monitor, but the second he is deemed active for the Rams is the second that Kupp is reinserted into your starting lineups. There are plenty of things to overthink in this fantasy world of ours, but this simply isn’t one of them.

You shouldn’t need it for a man who saw 21 targets in a game this season. But if you do, here’s a note about the matchup to feel good about — twice have the Raiders seen a receiver earn double-digit targets against them this season (Diontae Johnson and Zay Flowers), and they coughed up over 90 yards and a touchdown in both instances.

The Raiders have done what most thought was impossible through six weeks — they rank 25th in pressure rate despite having the machine known as Maxx Crosby on their roster. Matthew Stafford doesn’t need time to find Kupp, but if you give him extended time, where do you think he’s going with the ball?

If the team is confident enough to bring him back, they are doing so knowing where the ball is likely to be headed 30-35% of the time.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at NO)

Plenty of offenses in today’s game make moving the ball look easy and putting points on the board second nature. For the Broncos, it’s an outright war.

Sutton had to make what will be on the shortlist for catches of the year last week to save what would have been another underwhelming game. Despite being the clear alpha in town (he has 21 catches and no other Denver receiver has 20 targets), he’s yet to reach 70 receiving yards, yet to have a 30-yard gain, and has twice as many games with two or fewer receptions as he does contests with 5+.

The Saints allowed a 20+ yard catch to four different Buccaneers in the first half of Week 6, but that’s not the norm. They are the best team in terms of opponent passer rating when it comes to defending the deep ball. Neither of these teams as currently constructed wants a high-possession game where their offensive shortcomings are magnified. I’m looking at another 5-7-target game from Sutton where he will have to snatch production from the jaws of despair with a special effort to pay off starting him.

If counting on an outlier is his path to viability, I’m out. Sutton doesn’t crack my top 40 this week.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (vs. PHI)

We know that the WR position doesn’t handcuff quite like the RB position — if a running back goes down, the backup fills a similar role. But if a receiver gets dinged up, the entire target hierarchy adjusts.

Usually.

In the case of the G-men, Slayton has walked right into a poor man’s version of the Malik Nabers (concussion) role. In Weeks 1-4, he was targeted on 15 of 135 routes, but with the star rookie sidelined, he’s seen 22 looks on 80 routes (14 catches for 179 yards and a touchdown, a stat line that could be bigger if not for a defensive pass interference call in the end zone last week).

I hope Nabers returns. Not for my own selfish fantasy reasons, but because I get more nervous every week that a head injury lingers. His status is going to single-handedly swing my ranking of Slayton by some 25 spots, in part due to the volume that appears locked in and in part due to the matchup that awaits …

WR1s vs. Philadelphia Eagles:

• Week 1: Jayden Reed, 33.1 fantasy points
• Week 2: Drake London, 17.4 fantasy points
• Week 3: Chris Olave, 20.6 fantasy points
• Week 4: Mike Evans, 23.4 fantasy points

I’m not giving them credit for shutting down the Browns last week because that situation is a mess. The point here is that the Eagles have struggled to take away where their opponents most want to go and, if the past two weeks have taught us anything, it’s that Daniel Jones is interested in this Nabers role, even if it’s not the rookie sensation filling those shoes.

With an active Nabers, Slayton sits outside of my top 40 without much question. With an inactive Nabers, I think there is a conversation to be had between Slayton, Tank Dell, Amari Cooper, and receivers like that in the high-end Flex position of my Week 7 rankings.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (vs. SEA)

The Falcons have tweaked how Mooney was used during his final season with the Bears, and they’ve had some good success in doing so (pace: 77 catches for 1,041 yards and 8.5 touchdowns), landing the WR2 on the Flex radar more often than not.

If Atlanta can be more consistent with the target type for Mooney, he could end up flirting with top-25 status in a given week. But that’s not yet the case — he has three games with under 40 air yards and three with over 115. That said, if you’ve been riding the roller coaster, I’d continue doing it in this spot.

Seattle’s defense thrived against the bottom-feeders of the league to open the season, but since Week 3, they have the second-highest passer rating allowed (121.4, for reference, which is 11.1 points higher than the NFL’s top-rated QB up to this point).

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (at PIT)

This move felt close to inevitable, and it’s now official. We will get news on where Adams’ recovery from his hamstring injury sits, but it stands to reason that the Raiders were being cautious with their star so as to not put him in harm’s way and lessen their return in a deal.

So let’s assume that he is good to go from a health perspective, now what?

Adams himself was thought of as a top-15 receiver entering the season (depending on your site, his ADP was in the WR11-13 range) as the focal point of a questionable offense. Now, he is the focal point of a questionable offense that carries some upside.

His history with Aaron Rodgers is impossible to ignore. Considering that, despite iffy quarterback play, Adams opened this season with production rates of +14.5% and +14.8% over expectation, it’s safe to say that there is plenty of gas left in the tank. Rodgers has struggled with the deep ball recently (remove the Hail Mary last night and he is 9-of-31 with no scores and three picks during this three-game skid when throwing the ball 15+ yards down the field). But with the non-verbal communication portion of his timing-oriented game now set, logic would state that a bounce-back is to be expected in rather short order.

The Jets are on short rest this week and face an elite defense in Pittsburgh, but after that, the schedule runs out nicely for Rodgers to push as a fantasy starter with Adams safely inside the top 10 at the position in all formats, assuming health.

• Week 8 at Patriots
• Week 9 vs. Texans
• Week 10 at Cardinals
• Week 11 vs. Colts

New York then goes on bye and the schedule gets even more friendly to close out the fantasy season (Seahawks-Dolphins-Jaguars-Rams-Bills). This move might put the Jets into the playoffs and certainly could vault your fantasy team up the standings if you were holding tight on either former Packer. As for the surrounding pieces …

Garrett Wilson is the loser of this deal in a significant way. He’ll remain fantasy-viable, but his path to stardom has been put on hold while the Jets try to salvage this win-now window. His aDOT this season is down 26.7% from a season ago, seemingly because he and Rodgers couldn’t connect the way the future Hall of Famer could with Adams in the past.

So, reinserting the star receiver into the mix only solidifies the more conservative route tree while capping his number of looks in what should still be a slow offense. There are a lot of moving pieces to consider, but should Adams be active for Week 7, there’s an interesting trend to consider and one that can keep you confident in Wilson. The Steelers have played four teams with a proven WR1:

• Week 1 at ATL: Ray-Ray McCloud III outscored Drake London
• Week 2 at DEN: Josh Reynolds and Lil’Jordan Humphrey outscored Courtland Sutton
• Week 4 at IND: Josh Downs outscored Michael Pittman Jr.
• Week 5 vs. DAL: Jalen Tolbert outscored CeeDee Lamb

As for the juice you’ve squeezed out of Allen Lazard up to this point, those days are likely gone. Rodgers has occasionally supported a third pass-catching option, though. Even in his prime, it’s been more at the tight end position than anything (Richard Rodgers scored eight times in 2015 and Robert Tonyan scored 11 TDs in 2020). Randall Cobb was able to scratch across limited PPR appeal, but Lazard’s profile was thin to begin with. It only seems like a matter of time until you decide to move on.

He’s been able to thrive thanks to clearing 100 air yards and seeing multiple end-zone looks in each of the past two weeks. I’m not sure he has two such games for the rest of the season — that’s going to land him outside of my top 45 receivers consistently moving forward.

Left in Adams’ wake in Las Vegas is a limited offense that can’t move the ball with consistency. Brock Bowers proved last week that he is talented enough to win no matter the coverage schemes, locking in his status as a top-six player at the position moving forward.

Outside of him, there’s no one on this roster to be excited about. A currently banged-up Jakobi Meyers is now their WR1 and should be rostered, but more as depth than a player you plan on using weekly. The Raiders have been and will continue to be an offense you can stream defenses against with confidence, making the Falcons’ defense an interesting add once we hit December (Weeks 13-16: Chargers, Vikings, Raiders, and Giants).

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | TEN (at BUF)

The usage metrics look fine (over 28% on-field target share in three consecutive games with an aDOT that is in line with his career average), but if 2024 has taught us anything, it’s that not all targets are created equal.

The future Hall of Famer has just one top-40 finish on his résumé this season, and without Will Levis showing tangible signs of development, why would we expect things to change in a meaningful way?

Hopkins and Calvin Ridley are both in the middling WR4 discussion, which is not enough to matter in anything but the deepest of formats.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (vs. KC)

Process or results?

Samuel’s 76-yard catch-and-run was among the flashy highlights last Thursday night. Plus, he was handed the ball four times, his most since the season-opening win against the Jets. In theory, the ability to rip off big plays and gain volume on the ground should make Samuel a bona fide star — and yet, I’m worried.

Weeks 4-6, targets per route:

• Jauan Jennings: 23.8%
• George Kittle: 22.4%
• Brandon Aiyuk: 21.9%
• Samuel: 15.1%

That table doesn’t even include some nice development for Jordan Mason (Weeks 4-6: 11.5%, up from 4.5% through Week 3), something that will need to be factored in as Christian McCaffrey nears his season debut.

Samuel’s name and YAC skills make him a starter in all formats this week and in the short term, but this is the type of player that I often try to move after a productive outing. Last week was certainly that.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. LV)

Robinson scored in Week 5 against the Packers before the Rams went on bye, so maybe you held onto him through the week off — there’s no need. If you want to stash him for another week to make sure that Cooper Kupp is back earning looks at the rate we’ve been accustomed to, be my guest. But in many of my leagues, roster spots are too valuable to burn one on a maybe like this (peak weekly finish in 2024: WR38).

Despite a spike in his role due to the injuries in Los Angeles, Robinson hasn’t cleared 50 yards in a game this season, and that’s tough to do for a receiver averaging 15.8 yards per catch. The Rams entered this season without much depth to speak of and that remains the case. I’m not interested in trying to pin the tail on the auxiliary receiver in an offense I don’t trust.

Robinson, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Johnson are all reasonable cuts if you need immediate help.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. JAX)

Douglas hauled in six of nine targets for 92 yards and a score against the Texans last week in Drake Maye’s first career start, resulting in the first New England WR top-20 finish of the season.

The early returns were positive, but I’d caution against getting over your skies after a single game. Douglas earned the right to be my highest-ranked Patriots pass catcher this week in a matchup with the worst EPA pass defense in the league, but that only lands him in the middling Flex tier.

Maye offers plenty of upside that this offense didn’t have access to prior, but don’t mistake a ceiling for stability.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (at NYG)

Smith has played four games this season, and he’s been a top-25 receiver in each of them. A fourth-quarter, 45-yard touchdown saved his day against the Browns last week in his return to action.

Smith has been great, though the 16.7% target share needs to improve long term.

In consecutive weeks, multiple receivers have scored at least 11.5 fantasy points against the Giants (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett in Week 5, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins last week on Sunday night), positioning the Eagles’ offense to fly and potentially gain some sustainable traction to avoid the disaster that happened at the end of last season.

Smith has caught a touchdown in three of his past four games against New York, though it’s worth noting that Philadelphia elected to use him as an underneath option in the last two meetings (4.8 aDOT).

That’s the beauty of Smith — he has game-breaking talent if called upon but also the ability to rack up cheap points. I’m not 100% sure how he gets there, but I’m confident that he does in the end, and that’s all that matters.

You’re starting Smith in all formats every week as it is, and I have him a few slots higher this week than normal. His versatile skill set and the overall potency of this offense land him ahead of another receiver I like a lot this week …

Diontae Johnson, WR | CAR (at WAS)

Starting multiple Panthers with supreme confidence feels like a dangerous way to live, but Johnson joins Chuba Hubbard as a locked-in option as part of the worst team in the sport. As the clear-cut WR1 in this offense, Johnson has been a top-15 receiver in three of Andy Dalton’s four starts. That run of production probably doesn’t slow against the third-worst EPA pass defense in the league.

Johnson has 29 catches for 340 yards and three scores this season. The next top two Panthers in terms of receiving yards have combined for 28 catches, 295 yards, and two scores. There is no question as to who is going to expose a defense that allowed Zay Flowers to catch all nine of his targets for 132 yards in the first half last week (he finished as the fifth receiver this season to clear 22 points against the Commanders).

There’s no law saying you have to watch the Panthers play if you start Johnson – simply check the box score when all is said and done, and I think you’ll like what you see.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at ATL)

Box score watchers were let down by a three-catch, 48-yard, touchdown-less effort from Metcalf on Thursday night. But the deeper dive reflects much more optimism. Not only did Metcalf have a 52-yard touchdown wiped off the board due to a Seattle illegal shift that couldn’t have impacted the play less, but he saw two end-zone targets (Weeks 1-5: one) and had 213 air yards (previous season high: 146).

He was clearly the focal point of this passing game (targeted on four of Smith’s first six passes) and, in addition to the long score that came back, he had an early touchdown in his hands but simply couldn’t get a second foot down in the back of the end zone. After three straight games with at least 104 receiving yards, Metcalf has 103 through two October games — you shouldn’t be worried in the least.

You’re playing Seattle’s alpha with the utmost confidence if you have him and it would be worth your while to look at the team with him rostered in the trade market — if that team is 2-4 or worse, they may be in panic mode and susceptible to a short-sighted deal.

Drake London, WR | ATL (vs. SEA)

Could we be looking at a league winner?

Receiver A:

• 104.8 fantasy points
• 35.2% slot usage
• 530 air yards

Receiver B:

• 101.7 fantasy points
• 33.7% slot usage
• 475 air yards

Any guesses?

The first receiver is 2024 Drake London in his first six games with Kirk Cousins and the second is 2020 Justin Jefferson in his first six games with Cousins. London has been a top-20 receiver in four of five games after the dismal Week 1.
While the season-long numbers on the Seahawks still look reasonable, don’t forget that their defense has faltered as the schedule has toughened — five times over the past three weeks they’ve allowed a receiver to reach 16 PPR points.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (at PIT)

Garrett Wilson has seen a reduced aDOT (8.4 yards) with strong volume (27.3% on-field target share) this season, but his role is at risk of changing significantly with Davante Adams likely taking over the WR1 duties in New York.

The raw talent is enough to keep him in starting lineups, though the upside is significantly less than it was a week ago. Wilson is well ahead of his career scoring rate thanks to being targeted on 34.3% of his red zone routes, and that’s been great to see. However, it’s where the Rodgers/Adams connection has been the strongest in the past.

Last season, we saw Mike Evans score in bunches for the Buccaneers, with Chris Godwin producing on occasion with the scraps. Wilson might be the 2023 Godwin of this offense, and that’s going to result in underwhelming production based on where you picked him this summer.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (vs. NYJ)

Pickens was WR24 in the season opener, but he’s posted just one top-40 finish since. Fields may be the limiting force, especially with his recent regression to his career mean, but that’s the hand we are dealt for now.

We can address the impact of Russell Wilson taking over if it happens (in the effort of getting ahead of things, Pickens would move up 8-12 spots in my WR ranks) — in this matchup with this quarterback, how can you feel good about labeling Pickens as a top-30 play?

The WR position is deep enough that you don’t need to take on risks like this. There are half a dozen slot specialists who have a fraction of Pickens’ physical tools, but until “physical tools” has a fantasy point total tied to it, I don’t really care.

Justin Jefferson is the only WR to hit 80 receiving yards against the Jets this season, and I expect that to still be the case after Sunday. You can sign me up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Khalil Shakir, or Ladd McConkey over Pickens for Week 7.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (at LAR)

Meyers could not practice through an ankle injury suffered in Week 5 for most of last week, but a limited session on Friday gave us a glimmer of hope that he’d be available.

No such luck, though. The effort to get on the practice field late last week could foreshadow a return to this advantageous spot. With Davante Adams possibly having played his last game for the Silver and Black, Meyers’ path to as much volume as he can handle is reasonably clear, a role that, usually, pays off in a nice way against the Rams. Three times this season has a receiver seen 105+ air yards against the Rams …

• Week 1: Jameson Williams (nine targets, 24.4 PPR points)
• Week 2: Marvin Harrison Jr. (eight targets, 29 PPR points)
• Week 3: Jauan Jennings (12 targets, 46.5 PPR points)

There’s sound logic in wanting to exploit this Los Angeles defense down the field. However, I’m going to use that bit of information as an opportunity to optimize my future lineups (Jordan Addison next week and locking DK Metcalf into Week 9 DFS lineups) as opposed to acting on it this week in an offense being led by Aidan O’Connell, a quarterback with as many completions to the wrong team as the right one on his 12 deep shots this season (two).

Meyers is a “getting cute” DFS play only and sits outside of my top 40 at the position.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. BAL)

The third-round pick out of Washington returned to the field, and with Mike Evans dealing with a few injuries (none believed to be serious), McMillan deserves to be on your radar. Receiver handcuffs are rare due to how the position functions, but should Evans miss time at any point moving forward, McMillan will rise up to Flex consideration as long as Mayfield continues to play at this level.

Treat McMillan like you would any backup running back. You’re investing based on contingent value with the understanding that stand-alone value is a long shot. The Ravens allow a league-high 4.8 deep completions per game — tuck that in your pocket if this Evans injury lingers.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | NE (vs. JAX)

The 1-5 Patriots are motivated to see what their future looks like, and Polk is likely a part of that. Polk turned four Drake Maye targets into a whopping four yards last week. While that’s not exactly what we had in mind, remember that it’s only a single data point.

I saw enough from the rookie QB to think that there might be some value to extract from this offense as we approach the second half of the fantasy season, which makes Polk a reasonable luxury stash. There might not be redraft value here, but we don’t know that for sure, and I’m happy to invest in some uncertainty for a few weeks to see how this offense develops.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (at CLE)

Through six weeks, Chase has three massive games and a trio that falls more into the underwhelming category, but there shouldn’t be any concern. Burrow is playing at a high level, and Chase is making at least one highlight catch weekly (33+ yard reception in four straight games) — it really is that simple.

The big plays have continued to come despite Chase’s aDOT dipping for a third straight season, a nod to his elite playmaking ability. Skeptics will track down his lack of success in this specific matchup (under 50 receiving yards in four of five meetings), but this version of the Browns isn’t the one we’ve feared in seasons past.

The Bengals’ defense almost ensures that this team will struggle to blow out anyone. In two close games that Cleveland has played when the opponent has had a standout WR1, they’ve been burned in a significant way.

• Week 3: Malik Nabers, 28.2 PPR points (8-78-2)
• Week 6: A.J. Brown, 23.6 PPR points (6-116-1)

Chase lives in my top five at the position every week, regardless of matchup. Don’t overthink things — he’s my WR3 and on my DFS radar.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (at MIN)

The Lions are playing 4D chess these days. In between trying to scheme up hook and ladders to linemen, Detroit’s offense found time to quick snap the Cowboys last week after seeing a coverage edge and exploiting it by way of a 37-yard touchdown to Williams, positioning the burner for his fourth top-24 finish of the season.

Despite having the best EPA pass defense in the league, the Vikings have allowed a receiver to reach 18 fantasy points in each of their past four. While Williams has 76 more receiving yards and five more big plays than Amon-Ra St. Brown this season, he’s still the WR2 in the Lions’ offense, and this is far from an advantageous matchup against an undefeated team coming off a bye.

With various injuries impacting the WR rankings, I still have Williams as a top-24 receiver this week, though I will admit that I’m nervous and will be avoiding him in DFS formats (10 catches in Weeks 1-2, six grabs since).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (at ATL)

If you’re a process-oriented manager, the case for remaining loyal to Smith-Njigba is clear. The target-earning growth was bumpy early on, but with 28 yards over his past three games, the strong fantasy numbers seem close to inevitable.

I like to check out third-down rates when it comes to young receivers — does his quarterback trust him with the fate of the drive on the line? JSN has accounted for a team-high 27.8% of third-down receptions (10), recording as many through six weeks as Metcalf (six) and Lockett (four) have combined.

The Seahawks schemed up a fade for him in the end zone on Thursday night, and while the pass was knocked out because the timing was a little off, I’m encouraged by the confidence that Smith is showing in his budding star. Atlanta is more vulnerable in the slot than anywhere on the field as offenses seek to avoid A.J. Terrell Jr. Put Smith-Njigba in a spot to return Flex value and it’ll start to reward you for hanging in there through the lean times.

Jauan Jennings, WR | SF (vs. KC)

From Weeks 2-5, Jennings was on the field for 63.5% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, and being on the field regularly is the best way to take advantage of a highly efficient offense like this one.

He showed well for himself when given the opportunity, but his stock is fading quickly with the 49ers now healthy. Against the Seahawks last week, Jennings was on the field for just 49.2% of snaps, a rate that is more likely to regress further than bounce back.

Jennings is to be used like a handcuff receiver — stash him and deploy him if he rises up the depth chart, but ignore him otherwise. He’s a nice player to have on your bench right now, but not in your starting lineup.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. HOU)

Reed scored and was the only Packers player with a catch through their first two drives last week, a game during which he was dinged up.

The hope is that the ankle injury won’t limit Green Bay’s top receiver, though you should at least be aware that the next two weeks are a little less impactful in the scheme of things than a meeting with the Lions in Week 9 ahead of the Week 10 bye.

I’m operating as if Reed will be a full-go in this spot against a Texans defense that has already allowed four 20-point performances to a receiver this season.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — Reed is the Packers’ version of Deebo Samuel. With a touchdown catch or multiple rush attempts in every game this season, Reed should be considered a fringe WR1 the rest of the way.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at IND)

At this point, Waddle is the equivalent of holding a savings bond. You could cash it in now if you’re in need (7-9 PPR points), but waiting for the maturation date is the optimal usage if you have the luxury.

Waddle will move into my top 25 the second Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to return — but not a second before. He’s yet to finish a week as a top-45 receiver since his starting quarterback got injured. While this matchup would indicate a reason for hope if this passing game remains concentrated (every time a receiver has seen at least eight targets against the Colts this season, he’s cleared 15 PPR points), the low floor stands to impact your matchup more than the concept of a ceiling stands to help you.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (vs. CIN)

Jeudy hasn’t been a top-50 receiver in three of his past four games, and Deshaun Watson is on the short list of worst performers in our QB+ metric over the past decade.

Nick Chubb’s pending return probably results in the pass rate over expectation trending closer to neutral than the top 10 status it has held up to this point, further putting the number of opportunities in question, even after the departure of Amari Cooper on Tuesday afternoon.

A receiver has scored at least 18.5 PPR points against the Bengals five times this season, an upside that is now within the range of outcomes for Jeudy.

Notice how that is worded. “Within the range” is way different than “is projected for.” Upon learning of the Cooper trade, Jeudy moved up 17 spots in my positional ranks and is now in the Flex conversation for deeper leagues.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. DET)

Addison has appeared in three games this season and the results have been about what you’d expect — one top-10 finish and two outside of the top 50. He’s a talented receiver with plenty of pedigree, but his production as a rookie didn’t project as stable week-over-week.

With only two teams on a bye this week, my guess is that most of you won’t be pressed into playing Addison this week. Since returning from injury in Week 4, he’s been exclusively viewed as a deep threat (20.2 aDOT).

Could Minnesota scheme him opportunities to produce coming out of the bye? It’s possible, but the Lions have shown great growth up to this point in defending the long pass. That alone is enough for me to look elsewhere this week when filling out my lineup.

Addison will have to improve his efficiency to crack my top 30 in any given week. He caught just five-of-12 targets against a lesser version of this Detroit defense last season.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (vs. MIA)

Downs and — keep reading, Michael Pittman Jr. — have been thriving under Joe Flacco, making the decision under center one that impacts their Week 7 ranking by 20+ slots.

Last week, after Richardson was a late scratch, Downs saw a pair of targets on Indianapolis’ first drive, one that was capped with a 22-yard touchdown catch, vaulting him to his third straight top-20 performance (30 targets across those games).

I’m currently banking on Richardson returning this week — that is fueling my dropping of Downs outside of my top 35. Only twice this season has a receiver reached 12 PPR points against the Dolphins, and neither time was that player in the slot for even 22% of his routes.

With Flacco starting, we’d be talking about a 10-ish point rise in my ranks, putting Downs on the Flex radar, while confirmation with Richardson would back him outside of my top 40.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at ARI)

Joshua Palmer has dealt with various injuries this season, but the counting numbers for fantasy purposes haven’t been there when he’s been active. The 25-year-old has yet to reach 40 receiving yards in a game in 2024 and has produced under expectations in three of four games.

With a fluid target hierarchy in Los Angeles, there is a path to him offering a week upside in any matchup, but as a part of the 28th-ranked offense in terms of pass rate over expectation, the risk far outweighs the reward in most redraft situations.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at SF)

Week 5 feels like a while ago. I encourage you to not forget just how impressive Smith-Schuster’s role was. He played a season-high 66.3% snap share against the Saints and paid it off with eight targets, seven catches, and 130 yards (+34.2% production over expectation) as he essentially assumed the role vacated by Rashee Rice.

2024 Rashee Rice:

• 41% slot
• 33% on-field target share

Week 5 Smith-Schuster:

• 39.6% slot
• 27.6% on-field target share

I’m not suggesting that Smith-Schuster is poised to be Rice, but don’t forget that we were labeling Rice as a top-10 PPR option before his injury. Is a top-30 week too much to ask? I don’t think so. The three highest-scoring WR games against San Francisco this season all spent over 28% of their snaps in the slot (Allen Lazard, Tyler Lockett, and Justin Jefferson), putting Smith-Schuster in a spot to be Kansas City’s WR1 this weekend.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (vs. DET)

Would you believe me if I told you that Jefferson is pacing for the highest fantasy production rate over the expectation of his career this season? It’s true, and we get access to a comfort spot off of a bye, making him my top receiver for the week.

Jefferson’s last three games vs. DET:

Week 14, 2022: 33.3 fantasy points (11-223-0 on 15 targets)
Week 16, 2023: 26.1 fantasy points (6-141-1 on 10 targets)
Week 18, 2023: 36 fantasy points (12-192-1 on 14 targets)

Jefferson has yet to catch more than six passes in a game this season, something that could end this week — he has a 9+ catch game in every season of his career against the Lions.

Due to the QB concerns this summer, you got a discount on Jefferson, and your willingness to buy his raw talent could well result in him guiding your team to glory (Weeks 16-17: at SEA, vs. GB).

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. TEN)

It’s OK to like the player long-term and acknowledge that it’ll take time for him to be a usable fantasy piece. Coleman has shown promise in spurts, but he’s yet to clear 51 receiving yards in a game this season and is coming off the second-worst yards-per-route performance of his season (1.04).

Buffalo showed the ability to pound the ball in their win against the Jets. With them opening as an 8.5-point favorite in a game with a 41.5-point total in this game, I’m not projecting enough volume through the air to rank him as a top-40 player.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. TEN)

The most efficient receiver in the sport missed Week 5 with an ankle injury. While he played through the injury on Monday night, his 36.7% snap share ranked fourth among Buffalo receivers.

There haven’t been any reports suggesting that a setback occurred. That has me projecting a snap share closer to the 57.7% rate that he posted through the first month. Shakir’s ability to maximize the value of every target is a skill I love having access to in a PPR league. But he’s the type of player that I’m happy to be a wee bit late on rather than a week early in terms of reinserting him into lineups.

His path to mattering revolves around volume, and if he’s at risk of coming off the field like he did last week, the floor is worrisome. I’m not paying Shakir this week, but if we see him assume the role he had pre-injury, I’ll be talking him up as a Flex in Week 8 against the Seahawks.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at ARI)

A rookie receiver in a run-centric offense isn’t a profile I frequently target. However, with two top-20 finishes on his early-season résumé (Weeks 1 and 3) and a plus matchup, I’m fine with labeling McConkey as a viable PPR Flex play on Monday night.

The Cardinals are the exact opposite of the Chargers, making this a clash of styles that could play out in a variety of ways. If Arizona can dictate the tempo and ramp up the possession count, another top-20 finish could be in store for McConkey. That would maximize his number of reps against the fourth-worst defense in terms of yards per slot completion (13.2) and pass defense EPA. If not, a fourth finish outside of the top 40 is very possible. With the Cardinals banged up, I lean the latter — that is why he lands as my WR37 for Week 7.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. PHI)

The Eagles are a bottom-10 defense in terms of interception rate, sack percentage, and yards per completion allowed, making Nabers a WR1 without much thought if he is deemed to be fully healthy.

That’s the tricky part — the rookie suffered a concussion on September 26 and hasn’t returned since. The Giants have sounded cautiously optimistic when discussing the status of their star receiver, though an extended stay in protocol is concerning. Keep an eye on the beat reporters. But barring multiple reports about a snap limit, if Nabers is active for New York, he’s active for you (in a perfect world, you have Darius Slayton on your roster, giving you exposure to this matchup one way or another).

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (vs. LAC)

This game being the final one of the week further complicates the already complicated concussion protocol. The most common happening in these situations is one missed game, and with Arizona more interested in the future of Harrison Jr. than the present, it stands to reason that they’ll be cautious with their budding star.

Consistency hasn’t been the hallmark of Harrison, be it week-to-week or even quarter-to-quarter (78.2% of his fantasy production has come in first quarters this season), making it even more difficult to recommend waiting out this injury.

If you can grab Rashod Bateman, Jalen McMillan, or Joshua Palmer off the wire in an effort to protect yourself on Monday night, go for it. But if you have a top-40 receiver on your bench and we enter the weekend without clarity, I’d take the safe approach and bench Harrison this week.

Mason Tipton, WR | NO (vs. DEN)

Tipton averaged 15.8 yards per catch during a four-year career at Yale, and while he only caught one pass in Week 6, he figures to be more involved this week against a Broncos defense that is down Patrick Surtain (concussion).

Tipton was on the field for 40.9% of the snaps last week, trailing both Bub Means (69.7%) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (53%), but that rate could shoot up if the Saints elect to deploy the shortest of their healthy receivers more in the slot in Week 7.

Last week, 47.5% of Spencer Rattler’s passes traveled no more than five yards downfield, making a chain-moving role next to Alvin Kamara a valuable one and one that this 24-year-old could fill tonight.

Tipton is projected to score 3.3 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 1.1 receptions for 16.2 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (vs. MIA)

With basketball season nearly upon us, it was good to see the 6’4” Pittman box out the defense and pull down what was essentially a fadeaway jumper from Joe Flacco last week. The score saved you from an otherwise underwhelming day at the office (3-35-1) against a stingy Titans defense.

That’s now three straight top-30 performances from Indianapolis’ WR1 after opening the season with three games outside of the top 50, a level of production that essentially mirrors Anthony Richardson’s status.

Now, it should be noted that the Richardson-Pittman tandem showed signs of life in Week 4 before injury, but there’s no denying that Pittman’s skill set matches better with the crafty Flacco under center.

Only once this season has a receiver cleared 14.7 PPR points against the Dolphins (DK Metcalf in Week 3), and I’m not expecting Pittman to add to that list if Richardson is named the starter, which is my current read on the situation.

In that world, Pittman is a Flex option who carries more risk than he has in years past. Should Flacco get another start, I’d elevate Pittman into my top 20 and would give him a decent shot to clear that 14.7 number that has proven difficult for receivers to surpass.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. LAC)

Wilson has proven to be an oddly consistent receiver (WR28-38 in three of his past four games) despite fluctuating usage rates. But this is a talented receiver who has consistently produced when given the chance (above fantasy expectation in seven of his past eight games with six of those instances coming in at least +27.1%).

With Marvin Harrison Jr.’s status pending after the Week 6 concussion, Wilson’s role has the potential to improve, though I think any increase in target count could be undone by being the focal point of a strong Chargers defense that ranks top five in yards per completion, touchdown-to-interception rate, and first-down percentage this season.

With or without Harrison active, Wilson will be on the low end of his recent production, settling in the WR35-40 range that tiers him with Romeo Doubs and a Tagovailoa-less Jaylen Waddle.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. BAL)

Evans was in and out of last week’s blowout win over the Saints, and for the fourth time in five weeks, he produced at least 12% below the NFL average WR would, given his target type.

The injury doesn’t sound like a major limiting force moving forward (though it should be tracked), and while the box score struggles have underwhelmed given his usage, I think you’re more than safe to stay the course this week against pass-funnel Baltimore.

The Ravens are one of a handful of teams that we are conditioned into assuming that they defend at a high level. Not only is that not the case in 2024, but this secondary could well undo what otherwise could be a special season.

Thus far, Baltimore ranks bottom 10 in passer rating, yards per attempt, first-down rate, and touchdown percentage. Evans has always been a player whose value is driven by his scoring equity, and although he’s lost some of that due to Chris Godwin’s success, he still has plenty of fantasy equity in a matchup like this.

I have both Evans and Godwin ranked as top 15 receivers this week, and if this injury were to linger, Jalen McMillan would move onto my Flex ranks.

Mike Williams, WR | NYJ (at PIT)

Williams was injured toward the end of Monday Night Football, but at this point, it shouldn’t impact your fantasy roster. I was vocal in my support of the idea of Williams this offseason, and I’ve been dead wrong — time to take the “L”.

The idea of a big-bodied WR2 in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense was appealing in August, but now, I wake in the middle of the night in cold sweats thinking about how this team functions on the offensive side of the ball.

Is it possible that with a change in head coach and good health luck, Williams will put together a good week at some point? I’m not ruling it out, but considering he doesn’t have 80 air yards in a game this season and the Allen Lazard phenomena won’t go away, there’s no chance you’ll be playing him for when it does, so why hold?

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at ARI)

Nothing about the Chargers’ structure gives me hope for Johnston when it comes to sustainable value. The three touchdowns over two weeks were fun in September, but he hasn’t cleared 51 receiving yards in a game this season and has been at least 14.4% below production expectations in the majority of contests.

This is an offense that wants to run to set up the run, and with an uncertain target hierarchy in the passing game, even when Los Angeles decides to take to the air, do we have any confidence that throwing in Johnston’s direction is a priority?

Ladd McConkey is the receiver to gamble on if you’re itching for some Chargers exposure. But if that’s your itch, you might want to schedule an appointment with your doctor rather than work your way through this piece.

In two of the past three weeks, multiple receivers have reached 14.5 PPR points against the Cardinals, but those were two very different offenses in Washington and Green Bay. Johnston checks outside of my top 40 this week, behind matchup-driven players like DeMario Douglas and Xavier Legette.

Rashid Shaheed, WR | NO (vs. DEN)

Shaheed’s breakout season has hit a speed bump, as a seemingly minor knee injury suffered last week now needs surgery, sidelining the speedster.

We’ve yet to get a timeline, but for a receiver who relies on athleticism to pay the fantasy bills, meniscus surgery is a concern, even once he is activated. I’m holding for now, but this situation doesn’t project well for Shaheed or any of the pieces of this passing game.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at TB)

Bateman matched a season-high with four catches last week, and his 71 yards were a season-best. With three finishes of WR40 or better over his past four games, I can understand some optimism around Bateman’s value moving forward.

Baltimore’s WR2 has cleared fantasy expectations in five straight games, though his lack of versatility (6.2% slot rate) is going to scare me off of anything but picture-perfect matchups. This isn’t that — Bateman owns a 14.3 aDOT this season, and the Bucs are a top-five unit when defending passes of 14+ yards in yards per completion, touchdown rate, and touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Bub Means scored 15.5 fantasy points in a blowout situation against these Bucs last week, so I guess you could squint and get there, but I’d rather gamble on matchups with a flier like Xavier Legette (at WAS) or Jerry Jeudy (vs. CIN).

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. HOU)

We saw Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks both get banged up in Week 6, paving the way for Doubs to produce.

Kind of.

Don’t get me wrong, he produced (49 yards and two touchdowns), but a 13.3% on-field target share despite the injuries isn’t exactly encouraging when it comes to projecting forward. Doubs’ third-quarter touchdown was more of a right-place, right-time situation, as Jordan Love was pressured into throwing a Hail Mary pass of sorts that he never attempts if not under extreme duress on third down.

Doubs gets credit for adjusting and making the play, though it’s not the most repeatable way to make a living.

Doubs has scored on 11.2% of his career receptions and certainly carries scoring equity into every game he plays (it sounds like the bad blood that resulted in the one-game suspension is water under the bridge now), but I’m only interested in going this direction should Wicks’ shoulder result in limitations and/or a DNP.

At the moment, I’m hedging my bet and have Doubs ranked in the mid-30s — he’d move ahead of this Darnell Mooney/George Pickens tier if Wicks is ruled out and falls back into the Xavier Legette range if not.

Stefon Diggs, WR | HOU (at GB)

You could have won a lot of money off of me this preseason if you asked me to accurately guess, through six weeks, how many receivers would have more red-zone receptions than Diggs.

The answer is four (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Godwin).

The veteran has caught at least six passes in four games this season and has posted four top-15 finishes in the process. But can he keep the good times rolling against this opportunistic Packers defense?

I have my concerns. Diggs has been more effective in the slot than anywhere over the last 11 months. That generally isn’t the best spot to attack Green Bay (second-lowest opponent slot passer rating, 69.1). The slot role is where we wanted him this offseason due to the signs of decline down the field for the Bills during the second half of last season, and the Texans seem to agree.

That is until Nico Collins was placed on IR. Diggs’ slot rate was more than halved last week from the first five games (26.5%, down from 53.5%), and he posted 102 air yards, nearly double his per-game average before (54.4). He made it work to the tune of 6-77-1 in New England, but we have a larger sample of this role not fitting the current version of Diggs. That is why I can’t get too excited.

The Texans’ implied total is approaching 23 points for this game and that, along with my trust in C.J. Stroud, is enough to keep Diggs inside my top 20. But I’m going to be lower than the industry on him in this spot and won’t have any DFS shares.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (at GB)

Some will tell you that this isn’t a picture of Nico Collins and Dell, but you can’t believe everything people say:

Never forget this iconic photo of Shaq and Simone Biles 🐐😂#OpeningCeremony pic.twitter.com/B8dWAKWgKL

— DraftKings (@DraftKings) July 26, 2024

So you can understand my skepticism about Dell seeing a spike in usage when Collins went down, as they seemingly filled different roles. That said, I have to give Houston credit as they’ve clearly made it a priority to get Dell the ball in their WR1’s absence, and they’ve been creative in doing so.

Over the past two weeks, Dell’s aDOT is 41.7% lower than it was prior, and they are experimenting with where he lines up. In Week 5, his slot rate was well above its season norm, catching all four of his targets. In Week 6, his slot rate checked in at a season-low 17.8%, and he averaged north of two PPR fantasy points per target for the first time this season.

I like what I’m seeing. The Texans have him and Diggs as essentially co-favorites to lead this WR room in points until Collins returns (at least three more missed games). Against the Patriots last week, Dell kicked off the scoring with a nice sliding two-yard touchdown and was targeted in six of Stroud’s first 14 passes. I don’t have much in the way of volume concerns for him in this spot. That’s noteworthy when you consider that four of the past six receivers to catch at least five passes against the Packers have found the end zone.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (at CLE)

Real Higgins fans will remember the air ball with which he opened the 2023 season against these Browns (zero catches on eight targets), but this isn’t the same Higgins, nor is it the same Cleveland defense.

Higgins has at least six receptions and a red-zone touch in three straight games after working his way up to speed in his Week 3 season debut. Cincinnati ranks third in pass rate over expectation this season, and they are more than willing to feature their WR2 if Ja’Marr Chase is seeing a small army crowd him once the ball is snapped.

As for this once-formidable Browns defense, they are now the definition of average. They rank in the middle third of the league in EPA, yards per play, red-zone defense, passer rating, and third-down conversion rate. We are creatures of habit and the habit is to worry about this matchup.

Don’t.

Higgins is a top-15 receiver for me, a neighborhood I see him spending the rest of 2024 in, barring a significant change.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. CAR)

This Jayden Daniels-led machine is impressive on multiple levels, one of which is their willingness to share the ball. Both running backs have had their moments, and multiple pass catchers have made plays. But McLaurin has established himself as the alpha we knew he could be — it’s amazing to see.

Through six weeks, he has as many catches (29) as any of his teammates have targets, has more receiving yards than any two other receivers on this roster combined, and has accounted for four of six touchdown receptions (he’s scored in three of his past four games after scoring in three of his previous 17 games).

He’s finished three of the past four weeks no worse than WR16, and I think that’s low-balling his standing for Week 7 against a defense that is bottom-five in EPA, red-zone efficiency, third-down prevention, and passer rating.

We’ve waited five long seasons to put McLaurin’s name alongside some of the best in the game, and I see no reason not to do it in this spot. Scary Terry sits at WR8 in my current rankings, and I feel great about it.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at ATL)

In the past, Lockett’s spike-play ability was his calling card and the reason he always seemed to surpass expectations. That role seems to be fading (though he did just miss on a chunk play last week against San Francisco), and with Smith-Njigba taking over the slot role (82.4% of his routes), the floor is a concern.

Lockett has been able to stave off a stiff decline in raw fantasy production up to this point thanks to seeing a target on a team-best 31.3% of his red-zone routes. That’s a great storytelling stat, but is it predictive? Is it likely that an aging receiver can post a career rate in that stat and more than double his career average in the process?

I don’t have Lockett ranked in the Flex conversation this week, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. If you can talk up his 6+ targets in five of six games to another team in your league, I wouldn’t hesitate to make a move that nets you a top-35 receiver or a running back getting consistent work.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at IND)

Hill was WR4 in Week 1 and things were going great, but that feels like a distant memory at this point. He hasn’t been a top-30 receiver in a single game since, a run that includes three finishes outside of the top 50.

My hope is that the bye week helps Mike McDaniel adjust. Everything we’ve seen since the Tua Tagovailoa injury points to Hill’s profile holding more risk than reward, but I’ll stick it out for one more week against a Colts defense that has allowed offenses to be consistently elite. The big plays may be hard to come by, but a 6-8 catch day, even if they come on conservative routes, should allow Hill to finish as a low-end WR2 in this spot.

In fact, I’ll take it one step further — could Hill be for sale from a team that is 2-4 and looking for a quick fix? I’d test the waters. By offering a deal for Hill now, you take on potentially another few rough weeks, but you have the bye behind you and you open yourself up for three straight warm weather games (two home and one indoors) in Weeks 14-16. The juice could well be worth the squeeze if the manager currently holding Hill is reaching desperation mode.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (vs. PHI)

If Robinson played for a better team, his 105-catch pace would draw more attention in what appears to be a Year 3 breakout for the former second-round pick.

A chain-mover like Robinson often gets overlooked in favor of Sportscenter Top 10 types, but, much like the “real” NFL, finding a player that you can count on weekly is critical in fantasy. The slot machine has been a top-40 PPR producer in all six weeks this season, something that CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Mike Evans, and most other receivers can’t claim.

Opponents have completed 31-of-46 passes against the Eagles when throwing to the slot this season, racking up five scores and a 124.3 passer rating (third-highest) in the process. You can count on another double-digit PPR performance, and in most leagues, that floor has a way of landing into optimal starting lineups.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at WAS)

This offense has simmered since the initial Andy Dalton spark, but the rookie has seen four of his 25 targets come in the end zone, no small accomplishment for an offense that doesn’t exactly live in scoring position.

His seven-yard score at the end of the first half last week was a thing of beauty, as it displayed not only his athleticism but Dalton’s understanding of what the rookie is capable of.

Legette has scored in two of three games since Adam Thielen was injured. While the nature of his surroundings will create plenty of ebb and flow, this is exactly the type of player you should be stashing — a young weapon whose team is motivated to get an extended look at him as the season progresses. He’s been productive up to this point, and I think his best is yet to come.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at SF)

Fantasy sports are funny, aren’t they? I just discussed a rookie with the same first name who is in the good graces of fantasy managers due to limited expectations. And now we have Worthy, a speed demon that walked into a role that came with it projections of greatness.

Worthy has just one top-20 finish to his name as the Chiefs have been using him more as a gadget option than a featured piece. His 139 routes this season have resulted in just 12 receptions, a rate that wouldn’t put him in Flex conversations if not for the environment that insulates him.

Benching a player like Worthy means you have to be OK with being very wrong and, in this matchup, I am. The 49ers have allowed the fifth-fewest deep completions per game this year (2.0), and their offense plays at the slowest pace in the league. Is it possible that Andy Reid spent the bye week dreaming up ways to get Worthy the rock? It’s possible — throw a dart in a DFS contest if you want exposure. In a season-long setting, I opt for safety more often than not. With just two teams on a bye, you likely have a “safer” option to plug in.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at TB)

Elite fantasy profiles occur when a player with the perfect skill set fits his surroundings like a glove. I think we have that with Jayden Reed in Green Bay; Flowers is that in Baltimore. Both are versatile receivers playing for offenses that can burn you in a variety of ways, thus allowing them to flourish on a consistent basis over the course of 60 minutes.

Flowers was responsible for each of Lamar Jackson’s first four completions last week (65 yards) and had a career-high in receiving yards by intermission. He’s now finished inside of the top 15 most valuable receivers in three of his past five games. While the floor is concerning (not a top-70 option in the other two games over that stretch), the juice is worth the squeeze given the high floor of this offense as a whole.

Tampa Bay allows the eighth-most yards per slot pass attempt this season, further adding to the projected value of every Flowers target. He’s in the WR1 conversation for me this week, and I prefer him over game-breakers like Tee Higgins, Drake London, and Malik Nabers despite him having a lesser target ceiling.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (at LAR)

It was only one game, but the early returns of Bowers in the Aidan O’Connell version of this offense (9-71-0) were certainly encouraging against one of the best defenses in the league.

As it turns out, you can’t really hide talent.

This wasn’t the first high-usage game for Bowers, but his 90 air yards were 23 more than any other game this season. The raw physical abilities are no secret, and he proved last week that he can shake free, even without much in the way of support (Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers both sat).

He gets to face the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league this week, and that plays into my ranking of him as TE3. But it should mean nothing to you — you’re playing him every single week and embracing the discount you got on him in August.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (at NYG)

Goedert went down with a hamstring injury on Sunday before recording a single catch, burning every manager who was playing him with confidence after catching 17 of 19 targets over his previous two games.

The return of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith was going to eat into his work, but we are stuck in limbo at the moment, not knowing if there is enough of a role in this offense. With Saquon Barkley also running hard, can Goedert’s fantasy stock survive?

On one hand, his 30.6% target rate with both star receivers banged up shows that Jalen Hurts isn’t shy to pepper his tight end. On the other hand, his target rate has been well under 20% in each of the past two seasons.

Hamstrings have been costing pass catchers extended amounts of time this season, further complicating this situation. Goedert won’t play in Week 7 — be sure to keep an eye on this moving forward.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. TEN)

I’m still not sure the Bills know how to best utilize Kincaid. But their willingness to explore different options is strong for his long-term outlook, though it has come with some ups and downs.

• Week 2 at Dolphins: -2.0-yard aDOT
• Week 3 vs. Jaguars: 12.2-yard aDOT
• Week 4 at Ravens: 6.7-yard aDOT
• Week 5 at Texans: 16.8-yard aDOT
• Week 6 at Jets: 3.4-yard aDOT

His ability to intrigue them at all three levels, I believe, will allow him to eventually unlock some pretty special upside. We just aren’t there yet.

But maybe we will be in Week 7?

The Titans create pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL, and Kincaid has vacuumed in at least a quarter of Josh Allen’s targets when not pressured in four straight games. You’re playing him if you roster him weekly, and I think you get rewarded for that loyalty with maybe his best week of the season to date.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at GB)

Schultz saw a then-season-high six targets in Week 5 against the Bills, a game in which Nico Collins left early. Then, he saw eight passes directed his way last week with Houston’s WR1 beginning his four-game stay on injured reserve. Coincidence?

I think not.

His on-field target share has increased each week this season, and while he won’t blow you away with the big gain, I’m not sure he has to against a Packers defense that is fifth-worst on a yards-per-attempt basis against the short pass. Schultz’s target plot is — well, it’s consistent:

If Schultz can earn 6-8 targets in this protected shootout, I like his chances at returning top-15 value at the position and potentially more. His four-catch, 27-yard game last week is considered a dud by most. But if he catches two more of those targets for 20 yards, he’s pushing for a TE1 finish.

Remember that you have to adjust your expectations for “viable” TE production. Once you do that, this situation and matchup put Houston’s chain-mover in the discussion for best streamers of the week.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (vs. CIN)

Few things are viable in Cleveland these days (I like Donovan Mitchell if you’re venturing off into the fantasy hoops world), but Njoku showed signs of being a decent weekly option. Against the Eagles, he was on the field for 73.6% of the snaps and was featured near the line of scrimmage. I’m going to say it a few hundred times this season and maybe a dozen within this article — those boring looks are all we want at tight end.

In high-volume receivers, I want to have access to those splash plays. But at TE, if I can get what Njoku did last week (catch five of seven shallow targets), I’ll happily take my chances.

His “big” play was a fourth-down reception in the second quarter, showing us that Deshaun Watson trusts him as much as any of his options. In a matchup like this, where a ceiling performance from the offense is possible given the opponent, Njoku is a top-10 play for me.

We can discuss his value should Watson be replaced at some point, but as gross as it may feel to invest in this offense, if you have Njoku, you have it better than a few of your league-mates.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (vs. NE)

There’s a return to action — and then there’s what Engram did in London last week. After sitting out four straight games due to an injury suffered in warmups ahead of Week 2, Engram turned a 61.7% snap share into 10 catches on 10 targets (his seventh game with double-digit receptions) and 102 yards (his sixth 100-yard game of his career).

No big deal. He was targeted on 31.3% of his routes (2023: 23.4%), and that rate jumped to 40% on first downs. Lawrence clearly was happy to have his most reliable weapon back (all other Jaguars: 52% catch rate in Week 6), and fantasy managers should rejoice that we’ve added a lineup lock to a position that lacks such options.

I will caution daily players — assuming that future players returning to action will be thrust into such a role is dangerous at best (and more likely reckless). I can’t imagine that T.J. Hockenson’s recovery plan mirrors that of Engram, so use this as a nice data point for Jacksonville’s TE, not one that is broadly predictive.

George Kittle, TE | SF (vs. KC)

With a touchdown in four straight games and a 25+ yard grab in three of five, Kittle is giving managers Grade-A production that is magnified due to the underwhelming nature of the TE position league-wide. Of course, I don’t think we get this sort of weekly production for the remainder of the season, but nothing he is doing when looking underneath the hood looks unsustainable.

Kittle, 2024 rates vs. career rates:

• aDOT: 7.7 vs. 7.9
• On-field target share: 21.3% vs. 21.1%
• Targets per game: 7.0 vs. 6.5

I love the fact that he has already matched his end-zone target count from a season ago and that his third-down target share is up nine full percentage points. A historic season isn’t something I’m expecting, but Kittle is the clear front-runner for TE1 honors this season — I’m not fighting that.

In theory, selling him is viable. But that likely puts you in the TE streamer world, and I wouldn’t wish that upon my worst enemy. Understand that some valleys will come as this offense rounds into full form, but I’d generally embrace the ride.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (vs. JAX)

Henry saw his most targets in a game since Week 2 and caught his first touchdown of the season in Drake Maye’s starting debut. His slot rate is up for a second consecutive season (40.4% through six weeks this season, 35.3% a season ago). That puts him in a position to soak up efficient targets in an offense that might have a touch of upside moving forward.

My concern here is the replication of skills. DeMario Douglas is valuable close to the line of scrimmage and so are the running backs on this roster, leaving Henry, for now, as more risk than reward when I stack up the position. I like his role potential more than Dalton Schultz or Zach Ertz moving forward. But with those two possessing so much more scoring equity due to the potency of their offenses, I need more than a single Maye Day for me to rank Henry as a viable option every week.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at TB)

Likely has seen three end-zone targets over the past two weeks after not seeing one for three straight games. That naturally brings some upside into focus at a position where a touchdown — of any length — makes you a startable option.

There’s no question that Likely is the tight end in Baltimore with the most juice, which is why his aDOT is 26.2% lower than that of Mark Andrews. Todd Monken wants to get Likely the ball in space if at all possible.

I understand that it was Andrews last week who got the touchdown and, thus, paid off while Likely struggled (2-27-0). But with the Bucs allowing a league-high 21 short completions per game, I have Likely ranked over Andrews this week and just inside of my top 15.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (vs. SEA)

After what qualified as a breakout Week 5 against the Bucs (7-88-0), Pitts saved your bacon with a 52-yard catch in Week 6. He was otherwise unproductive in the blowout win over the Panthers, finishing with three catches and 70 yards.

On the bright side, we have consecutive weeks with an improved target share and, for the fourth time in six weeks, he was targeted in the end zone. In less optimistic news, the Seahawks have held Travis Kelce, Pat Freiermuth, and Dallas Goedert under 40 receiving yards each and no more than seven fantasy points this season.

Pitts resides in the Pitts Zone. That is, he’s ranked on the fringes of the top 10, just high enough to not have a better option but not high enough to feel confident about.

This is the life we chose when signing up for another year of chasing his physical upside. Is he the tight end version of Anthony Richardson (Jonnu Smith was pseudo-Joe Flacco last season)?

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at TB)

Andrews caught his first touchdown pass of the season against the Commanders and now has consecutive games with a reception gaining at least 27 yards. Still, I’d be careful about assuming that he’s been unlocked.

His route and target counts were identical to that of Isaiah Likely last week, and if Jackson connects with Likely on an end-zone target, Andrews’ touchdown never occurs. His 38-yard gain was more of what the Commanders didn’t do than anything designed up for Andrews, making me no more confident in the veteran today than I was this time last week.

His name remains more viable than his role, and I’m sticking with Likely as the preferred option in Baltimore, though neither is even close to a safe option.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (at CLE)

After being reasonably involved early in the season, Gesicki is no longer a part of this offense. He’s earned just three targets over the past three weeks, seeing his on-field target share shrink from 29.5% through the first three weeks to a microscopic 5.5% since.

Gesicki’s profile is one that fantasy managers should be targeting, as he is a receiver hiding in a tight end’s body. But the skill set doesn’t matter if he’s sitting on the pine. There’s a world in which an injury to one of the receivers on this team thrusts their tight end back onto our radar, but for the time being, that’s not the case. He can be cut loose without a second thought.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (vs. NYJ)

As the Justin Fields efficiency thing from earlier this season continues to evaporate, the stability of his pass catchers is naturally going with it. Freiermuth has remained effective with his looks (84.6% catch rate), but the target share is plummeting to a point where it’s going to be difficult to justify rostering him.

On-field target share:

• Weeks 1-2: 18.6%
• Weeks 3-4: 18.2%
• Weeks 5-6: 11.3%

Freiermuth’s profile was always going to be fragile, and it appears that the bubble has burst. I reserve the right to buy stock if Pittsburgh hands over the keys to Russell Wilson, but I have no desire to go this direction against a Jets defense that is the best in the league by YPA in defending short passes.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (at MIN)

The 52-yard touchdown was a thing of beauty, that much we know.

FLEA FLICKER TO LA PORTA! TOUCHDOWN @Lions!

📺: #DETvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/qrPoPtCmo4

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

But am I the only one the least bit concerned that it was the only target LaPorta earned all day (19 routes run)? The route count has been suppressed of late due to Detroit’s efficiency and thus desire to run the ball (bottom-10 pass rate over expectation as it is, and the expectation has been low as a result of playing with leads). But in Weeks 3-4, he saw a look once every 5.8 routes.

During the beatdown of Dallas on Sunday, five Lions saw at least three targets. Now, some of that was due to the one-sided nature of the game. However, if this offense isn’t carving out ways to get their tight end the ball and they are going to continue to operate as a run-heavy offense, isn’t the floor worth considering?

The targets should be there with time, but I have my concerns about this matchup. Both of these teams operate at a below-average pace — any game with reduced possessions is naturally going to introduce a downside. The aggressive Vikings defense is as happy to bring extra defenders as anyone, and while that seems like a spot for LaPorta to thrive, it hasn’t been. This season, Jameson Williams has an on-field 27.5% target share when Jared Goff is blitzed, while Amon-Ra St. Brown’s rate checks in at 22.5% and LaPorta’s at 15.2%.

I’m hopeful that we get a usage rebound sooner rather than later, but for the time being, I’m fading Detroit’s tight end in DFS play.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (vs. DET)

The Vikings opened up a roster spot late last week with the presumption they’d welcome their starting tight end back into the fold. It’s impossible to know what their exact plan will be for Hockenson, less than 10 months removed from the injury. But with a 5-0 record, it stands to reason that they could operate with caution for the short term.

The counter to that argument would be that they scheme up safe routes for him as opposed to high-risk routes and/or blocking, usage that would be just fine for our purposes. He has caught at least four passes for 50 yards in 11 straight games, and while those may feel like low thresholds, those 9.0 PPR points would be TE11 on a per-game basis this season.

Give him one more catch and don’t even worry about adding yards — we are talking about the TE6. There is certainly risk involved in starting Hockenson in his season debut, but there is risk in starting just about anyone with a “TE” designation these days. If you’ve waited through six weeks and have been streaming the position, I think you’re clear to start him once the Vikings make it official that he will be active.

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (vs. DEN)

Hill has missed consecutive games with fractured ribs, and his status remains cloudy. With Derek Carr out for at least one more game, there’s a path for New Orleans to weaponize their versatile “tight end” in a fantasy-friendly way.

The Saints failed to score in three of four quarters last week with Spencer Rattler under center, creating a void that Hill naturally could fill. I like the idea of adding him now in a wait-and-assess sort of way. If we get news on Friday (or earlier) that he will be inactive, you simply move on. But if he’s able to take the field, we could be looking at a top-10 producer at the position that is free of charge in most leagues.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at SF)

It took a month, but Kelce is right back to holding down the top spot in the tight end rankings and that is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. As expected, his role has spiked following the Rashee Rice injury and he’s back to dominating.

• Weeks 1-3: 0.78 yards per route run
• Weeks 4-5: 2.27 yards per route run

Kelce has been a top-five performer at the position in both of those games (TE15 or worse in each of the first three weeks this season) and offers the best blend of ceiling and floor moving forward.

If you withstood the early struggles, it’s your time to thrive.

Trey McBride TE | ARI (vs. LAC)

McBride hasn’t found paydirt this season. He has just one TD in his past nine games, but it’s only a matter of time.

Longest streaks with 6+ targets in the past decade among TEs:

• 24: Travis Kelce (twice)
• 20: Kelce
• 18: Mark Andrews
• 16: Evan Engram
• 13: McBride (active)

McBride’s aDOT is up 27.4% from last season, and with the target share remaining stable, his path to TE1 overall honors this season is very much within the range of outcomes.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (at PIT)

Conklin’s snap rate is at a career-high, and while the production is hit-and-miss, being on the field is a good place to start. The Steelers are as stingy a defense as there is, but that doesn’t mean they shut down the chain-moving tight end.

Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson are a tier above Conklin, though it is worth noting that the tandem combined for 29.1 PPR fantasy points and caught 15 of 17 targets. Conklin isn’t going to be featured by the Jets or the Steelers — and that might be good enough for him to grind out a double-digit PPR point total.

Tucker Kraft, TE | GB (vs. HOU)

If you missed out on the good Kraft games (Weeks 4-5) only to play him with confidence against the vulnerable Cardinals last week (2-13-0), I feel for you. The fact of the matter is that you played the percentages and had a good process, you just got “tight end-ed.”

It happens to all of us.

Better times should be ahead, as Kraft has been on the field for over 80% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in three straight games and carries a 3.1 aDOT — a role that, in theory, comes with an elevated floor. The plethora of Packer pass catchers is a projectable problem, but with a few nagging injuries cropping up, you’re safe to trust the process and plug him in again. He’s my TE9.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (vs. CAR)

Ertz’s on-field target share has been all over the place this season, a nod to Jayden Daniels’ willingness to spread the ball around — good for Washington, awful for us.

On-field target shares:

• Week 3 at Bengals: 19.2%
• Week 4 at Cardinals: 9.7%
• Week 5 vs. Browns: 29.6%
• Week 6 at Ravens: 14.3%

I think you’re asking for too much if you want Ertz to be a consistent producer, as he more profiles as a streaming option that you hope to evaluate correctly in this potent offense.

We could see consecutive usable weeks from the veteran, as this team is flirting with an implied total of 30 points, and the Panthers allow the highest passer rating on short passes (108.9). Ertz is capable of running down the field, but a handful of short completions would be enough to justify starting him given the scoring equity that comes preloaded in this matchup.