The Buffalo Bills will have a different look to their backfield in their Week 6 Monday night clash with the New York Jets. Starting running back James Cook returned to practice on Saturday but was declared out with a toe injury before kickoff.
Cook’s absence leaves a huge void in the Bills’ backfield. Through five weeks, Cook ranked 10th among running backs in scrimmage yards (432), while scoring five touchdowns and taking over half of the Bills’ rush attempts.
We take a look at what to expect from the Bills’ running backs with Cook out.
Ray Davis
The best option for fantasy managers will truly depend on the game script. If the favored Bills can maintain a neutral or positive game script, Davis will likely be the running back to play in this game.
The rookie fourth-rounder out of Kentucky actually has the highest over/under for rush yards at DraftKings at 47.5. By comparison, Ty Johnson’s over/under is 23.5 yards. Before the game, NFL Network reporter Mike Garafolo reported that he expected Davis and Johnson to split a “1 and 1A” type of situation.
From @NFLGameDay Kickoff on what to expect from the #Bills’ backfield in James Cook’s absence. pic.twitter.com/rE5ZYEJnpQ
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 14, 2024
Davis has 26 rush attempts for 75 yards this season, compared to Johnson’s 10 rush attempts for 42 yards. The key here is to look at participation rate: 70.5% of Davis’ snaps this season have come on designed run plays, compared to 23.9% for Johnson. So most of the early-down, designed rush attempts should go to the rookie.
At Kentucky, Davis did also demonstrate some receiving ability. He had 33 catches for 323 yards and seven receiving touchdowns in 2023 for the Wildcats. Each of those totals led all SEC running backs last season. It doesn’t mean he’ll play on passing downs over Johnson, but it’s just worth noting that Davis is not totally hopeless as a receiver.
The rookie has yet to play more than 14 snaps in a game, so it’s unrealistic to expect he’ll shoulder the same type of workload as Cook. Still, expect Davis to play the bulk of the snaps unless the Bills are trailing.
Ty Johnson
Johnson has received the second-most playing time of any Bills running back this season, playing 24% of the snaps. But as alluded to above, 76% of Johnson’s snaps have come on dropbacks this season, compared to 24% on designed run plays.
Thus, his role actually shouldn’t really change at all. Johnson has only played more than 30% of the snaps in one game this year, and that was last week against the Houston Texans while Cook dealt with his injury.
It’s possible Johnson sees an uptick in snaps given Davis’ lack of experience, even regardless of the game script. But unless Buffalo is trailing the majority of the game, don’t expect to see Johnson eclipse 50% of the snaps.
Frank Gore Jr.
The son of 16-year NFL veteran Frank Gore Sr., the younger Gore is in line to make his NFL debut. The Bills elevated him from the practice squad earlier on Monday.
We’ve elevated RB Frank Gore Jr. from the practice squad for tonight’s game. #BUFvsNYJ pic.twitter.com/NM5Hm5GqwJ
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 14, 2024
Gore is an undrafted free agent who was waived during final cutdowns before returning to Buffalo’s practice squad. If he does get into a game, it’ll be a fun story for the younger Gore to debut where the elder Gore played in 2019.
However, his activation is likely for special teams and emergency depth in the short term. Gore could conceivably get into the game with an injury to either Davis or Johnson, but his snaps will almost certainly be limited if there are any at all given that he’s yet to play.