There have been plenty of intriguing results so far in the 2024 NFL season, but it feels like things are starting to level out into a more predictable pattern as we enter Week 7. The very good are separating themselves from the middle of the pack, and the teams that will be the first to be eliminated from playoff contention are emerging.
That helps us when making NFL picks and predictions for Week 7. Of course, it also helps the sportsbooks set their lines, making finding value difficult. Let’s break down the upcoming week and see where there might be some spots to take advantage of this week.
NFL Week 7 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 14, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
Denver Broncos (-1) at New Orleans Saints
- Moneyline: Broncos -110; Saints -110
- Total: 37
This matchup on Thursday Night Football is fascinating. A couple of weeks ago, you wouldn’t have believed that the Denver Broncos would be the favorites. However, things have shifted considerably, with the Saints now losing four games in a row and starting rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler.
The Saints have been falling week over week in almost every offensive metric, but that is hardly surprising given how hot their start was and then their subsequent struggles. They are now sitting in the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively in terms of EPA (expected points added) per game.
The Broncos are a defense-driven team, sitting fourth in EPA per game on that side of the ball and fourth from bottom offensively. Denver’s defense should be able to hold up against a New Orleans offense missing Derek Carr and Chris Olave. With both offenses struggling, the under is probably the best play here.
Prediction: Broncos 17, Saints 14
Pick: Under 37
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Patriots +185; Jaguars -225
- Total: 42.5
The third and final matchup in London will be between two 1-5 teams, but in two very different circumstances.
The Jacksonville Jaguars would have expected to challenge for the division or a playoff spot in some form this season, but that is not how things are playing out. They are 30th in net EPA per game and are below average both offensively and defensively. This past week, Jacksonville’s defense made Caleb Williams look like a superstar.
Caleb Williams set career-highs in success rate (58.8%), TD passes (4) and CPOE (+12.5%) in the Bears 35-16 victory over the Jaguars.
Williams excelled on quick passes, completing 13 of 14 passes for 111 yards & 3 TD (9 first downs).
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/N8B98elTa2
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 13, 2024
The New England Patriots are not overly surprised to be in this position, having expected this to be a tough year. They are rebuilding with a new head coach and handing over the reins to a rookie quarterback. The offense being among the worst in the league in most metrics may not be a major surprise, but the defense also being in the bottom 10 is a bit embarrassing.
The Patriots demonstrated signs of life offensively this week with Drake Maye, which means they have a chance in Week 7. However, they are dealing with the travel issues of heading to London, while the Jaguars are spending the entire week in England. Still, I don’t trust either of these teams, so this is a game to pass on.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Patriots 20
Pick: Pass
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
- Moneyline: Lions +105; Vikings -125
- Total: 51
This week’s matchup in Minnesota is arguably between the two best teams in the NFC and potentially the entire NFL. The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are top of the pile in terms of net EPA per game, with slightly contrasting methods. The Vikings are built around a top-ranked defense that protects a below-average offense. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense ranks third in EPA per game, with the defense marginally above average.
Minnesota comes into this matchup off a bye, while Detroit comes in off the high of demolishing Dallas on the road in AT&T Stadium. Teams coming off a bye went 3-1 this week, but historically we have seen it cause some rustiness, so the Vikings will need to overcome that. Meanwhile, the Lions will need to make a plan to account for the loss of their star defensive player, Aidan Hutchinson, to a gruesome injury.
This game sees strength face strength and weakness face weakness. Generally, the advantage tends to lean towards the team with the strength on defense (Minnesota). The only concern has been how the Vikings have allowed comebacks in their last two games, which gives me cause for concern.
Therefore, my play here will be to look at teasing the Lions to +8 and pairing them with another play. Additionally, with both teams having good defenses, this total seems very high, so taking the under is the other play I’m looking at.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Lions 21
Pick: Under 51 & Lions +8 in a teaser
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Texans +120; Packers -142
- Total: 47
Both the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers will come into this game on a high after winning by multiple scores in Week 6. The weather may prove to be a big factor here, with a dome team based in a warm weather climate going out to Lambeau Field, where it was wet and chilly this past Sunday.
These are two very evenly matched teams, which is why the weather becomes a potentially important factor. The Packers will be more comfortable in their climate, and the Texans will have to adjust. We saw it with the Arizona Cardinals this past weekend, although Houston is a better team.
By no means is this likely to be a blowout, and the biggest concern in backing Green Bay is that rookie kicker Brayden Narveson is not all that reliable. The young kicker is making just 71.4% of his field goals this year, having missed three over 40 yards and another that was over 30. In a game that could come down to fine margins, kicking could be very telling.
Ultimately, this is a game I will look to pass on in terms of the spread and total at this stage and then evaluate closer to the weekend. If the weather projects to be cold and/or wet in Lambeau, then the Packers laying less than three points is the play. However, taking the Texans +8.5 in a teaser is the option I am considering when making my early week wagers.
Prediction: Packers 24, Texans 20
Pick: Lean Texans +8.5 in a teaser
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-8)
- Moneyline: Titans +360; Bills -470
- Total: 43
It might seem insane to say that the Tennessee Titans are not a bad football team, but that is very much the truth. Their defense is very good, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per game. The problem, however, is that their offense ranks fifth from bottom in EPA per game.
Will Levis has been the root of the problem, ranking close to the bottom of the pile in PFN’s QB+ metric over the past two seasons. In contrast, Josh Allen is third in our QB+ rankings over that same time period, and he is marshaling a top-six offense while being supported by a top-10 defense.
The Buffalo Bills have struggled the last two weeks but have faced very good teams. We’ve yet to see them in Week 6, and if things turn ugly against the New York Jets, maybe things change a little here.
Tennessee’s defense has been good at keeping games close. Only one of the Titans’ four losses has been by more than seven points. Still, there’s no chance I am backing them while their offense looks so inept.
Therefore, the way to tackle this game is a six-point teaser, taking Buffalo down to -2. Do that on Monday because if the Bills look good in prime time, the line could pop up into double digits by Tuesday morning.
Prediction: Bills 24, Titans 17
Pick: Bills -2 in a teaser
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Seahawks +130; Falcons -155
- Total: 49.5
The Seattle Seahawks come into this game on a three-game losing streak and with several question marks around them. After allowing just 43 points in their first three games, Seattle has allowed 107 points in the last three.
A team ranking in the middle of the pack in net, offensive, and defensive EPA per game accurately represents this group. The Seahawks’ special teams had been struggling, but they made one of the splash plays of the season last week. Unfortunately, it’s just not a sustainable part of the game for them right now.
Laviska Shenault Jr. becomes the 2nd player to record a kickoff return TD under the NFL's new dynamic kickoff rules. 🔥pic.twitter.com/AAWPIR6oPb
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 11, 2024
Contrarily, the Atlanta Falcons are on a three-game winning streak and look to have their offense clicking nicely. They’ve now scored 100 points in the last three weeks but may have done so by eating on below-average defenses. Yet, that might be what the Seahawks are now that the dust is settling after six weeks.
The Falcons’ defense is a concern if you are looking to back them, and this game has the potential to be high scoring. Seattle is very capable of getting over 20 points, and Atlanta has allowed at least that in each of its last five. The over is the play here in a game that could see one or both teams break into the 30s.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Seahawks 24
Pick: Over 49.5
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +154; Colts -185
- Total: 42.5
The Miami Dolphins have a little bit more pain to endure as they wait for Tua Tagovailoa’s potential return. This will be his last mandatory absence after being placed on injured reserve, so Tyler Huntley will lead them again.
Miami’s offense has largely been stagnant in recent weeks, scoring a total of 27 points in its last two games. However, a bye week will have allowed Mike McDaniel to tailor things a little more to Huntley, so they should be a bit more competitive. The defense is a top-10 unit, so if they can hold the Indianapolis Colts to around 20 points, Huntley should give the Dolphins a chance to at least be in it when we get to the fourth quarter.
The Colts’ result in Week 6 was perfect. They won, and Joe Flacco looked league-average at best against a competent defense. Anthony Richardson is a terrifying wild card from a betting perspective. A player who can look elite one moment can look like he has never played the position the next. For that reason, and the fact we have no idea what Miami might look like, this is a game to pass on.
Prediction: Colts 20, Dolphins 17
Pick: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Bengals -218; Browns +180
- Total: 45
The Cincinnati Bengals managed to creep past the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football in an atypical performance for the team in 2024. Cincinnati’s offense looked out of sync at times and relied on its defense to restrict the opposition, which hasn’t been the case often this year.
However, it was good to see that against bad offenses, the Bengals’ defense can play its part.
Joe Burrow completed every pass he threw in the quick passing game, but was less effective when holding for 2.5 seconds.
🔸 Quick (U2.5): 12/12, 99 yards (+17.1% CPOE)
🔸 Long (O2.5): 7/16, 109 yards (-2.7% CPOE)Burrow averaged the 2nd-longest TTT of his career (3.10 seconds). pic.twitter.com/3f2zPQOujA
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 14, 2024
As we predicted last week, the Cleveland Browns threw everything at the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6. They still didn’t look good, but they at least fought hard in the face of adversity. Nevertheless, this is still the team with the worst offense in the NFL and, at best, a league-average defense.
The Bengals should win this game. If they don’t, then we’ll likely be talking about Zac Taylor’s future this time next week.
Normally, we would lean to the team with the better defense in these scenarios, but the Browns’ offense is so woeful that it’s not even a weakness; it’s a concrete block weighing them down.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 17
Pick: Bengals -4.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Eagles -192; Giants +160
- Total: 45
The Eagles might be the epitome of league average right now. Our PFN insights metrics for 2024 have them essentially right in the middle of the pack, offensively and defensively. However, if you look at EPA per game, it would suggest they are actually worse than that, ranking 21st in net and 23rd defensively.
The Giants are slightly worse overall, ranking 23rd in terms of net EPA per game and 23rd when it comes to their offense. The defense is slightly better but is still right around league average, so there is certainly no great strength here. We saw that on Sunday Night Football when New York’s defense could restrict Cincinnati’s offense but couldn’t do enough to give its below-average offense a chance.
It’s hard to find an angle to back either of these teams, especially with the Eagles laying 3.5 points. Three of Philadelphia’s five games have gone under 45 total points, and five of the Giants’ six have done the same. Thus, if you’re looking to play this game, the under is the way to go.
Prediction: Eagles 21, Giants 16
Pick: Under 45
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders (-8)
- Moneyline: Panthers +310; Commanders -395
- Total: 51.5
The Washington Commanders come into Week 7 off the back of a tough loss against the Baltimore Ravens, who might be the best team in the AFC. The Commanders’ offense did its job for the most part, but scoring 23 points against a below-average defense may prove to be a source of frustration when they look back. However, ultimately, it’s Washington’s defense that is the concern each week.
Please don’t get sucked into believing in Andy Dalton. Sure, he’s made the Carolina Panthers offense far more competitive than Bryce Young, but that is a very low bar to cross. The Panthers still only scored 20 points against a bottom-10 defense.
Meanwhile, Carolina’s defense shipped 30 points for the third week in a row. This team is bad from top to bottom, and you should look at every opportunity to go against them.
The Commanders have done well dominating bad teams. They beat both the Cardinals and Browns by more than 20 points, and the Panthers are worse than either of them. Laying eight points feels like a lot, but this is an above-average team in net EPA facing the worst team in the league by the same metric.
Take Washington laying the points and find a partner to tease it down to -2; just take the Commanders however you can.
Prediction: Commanders 34, Panthers 17
Pick: Commanders -8 and -2 as part of a teaser
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +200; Rams -245
- Total: 43.5
Trying to break down a game between the 25th (Las Vegas Raiders) and 27th (Los Angeles Rams) ranked teams in terms of EPA per game is tough to do. Both teams could get back offensive reinforcements in the form of Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp, which should provide a boost. However, it’s not going to cure all ills, especially given that both have struggled on defense.
I make it a habit of not putting my money on two bad teams, which might be the case here as well. The total is just about in the right spot, and there is no way I am backing the Rams to win by more than five points. Equally, backing the Raiders is a foolish way to spend money after they allowed 30 points to a Justin Fields-led offense.
Prediction: Rams 23, Raiders 20
Pick: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at San Francisco 49ers
- Moneyline: Chiefs -112; 49ers -108
- Total: 46.5
The game of the week looks set to be in Santa Clara. The San Francisco 49ers, coming off a 10-day break, will host the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off their bye.
These are two top-six teams in net EPA per game, with both having top-10 offenses and above-average defenses this season. Everything about this game suggests we could see another evenly matched tussle between two teams that will likely be at the sharp end in January.
The line is a little surprising, with the Chiefs favored in Santa Clara. That would suggest that the sportsbooks see them as around three points better than the 49ers on a neutral field. That is probably on the high side based on our PFN internal metrics, but we’re splitting hairs in a game that could come down to the final possession.
This game could see the spread tilt one way or the other this week. If you like to play a teaser, you may get the opportunity to take both teams getting 6.5-to-7 points at some point this week.
That is how I am going to attack a game that I expect to be decided by a touchdown or less when all is said and done. Time it right, and you can put yourself in a good position to make a profit either way in a close game.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Chiefs 22
Pick: 49ers +6.5 or +7 in a teaser and take the Chiefs in the same way if the opportunity arises
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
- Moneyline: Jets +100; Steelers -120
- Total: 36.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are understandably a league-average team this year in net EPA per game. They’ve been a top-10 unit on defense and a below-average group on offense. That is almost exactly what we expected and what we should continue to see.
Pittsburgh’s two losses have come by a combined six points in games they could easily have won.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has forced 12 red zone turnovers since the beginning of last season, the most by any team. 😤
This punch-out forced fumble by T.J. Watt is the 4th red zone turnover forced by Pittsburgh this season, most in the NFL. 🥊pic.twitter.com/pZafxBWmxw
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 13, 2024
We’ll get a better idea about the post-Robert Saleh Jets on Monday Night Football, but this is going to take a few weeks to fully shake out. Expect there to be an immediate reaction to the change from the team in Week 6 and then maybe a slight fall-off in Week 7 as things stabilize.
This should be a defensive battle, and the line is set adequately for that. Right now, there is no play here. Once the dust settles on Monday Night Football, maybe there will be an angle to attack this game better. For now, I will project a Steelers’ win for Pick ‘Em contests, but this is a toss-up.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Jets 17
Pick: Pass
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Moneyline: Ravens -205; Buccaneers +170
- Total: 50.5
The Ravens are a very good team and might well prove to be the class of the NFL. After a befuddling start to the season, they’ve reeled off four wins in a row and the offense is averaging over 30 points per game in doing so.
Baltimore sits second in offensive EPA per game and eighth in net EPA. The defense is the confusing part, ranking 25th in EPA per game but putting in some promising performances at times.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now scored over 110 points in the last three weeks and crossed 30 points in four of six games. They are absolutely clicking right now and feasting on mediocre defenses. The problem is that Tampa Bay’s defense is also vulnerable, having allowed over 25 points in three of their last four, including to Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler-led offenses.
This could be the game of the week when all is said and done. We could easily see 60+ points scored as two good offenses take on defenses that have wobbled this season. The Ravens laying 4.5 points feels too much, especially on the road. However, it’s hard to go against Lamar Jackson and that offense. Instead, let’s take the over and hope for fun on Monday Night Football.
Prediction: Ravens 33, Buccaneers 30
Pick: Over 50.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: Chargers -135; Cardinals +114
- Total: 42.5
It would be a shock if many people watch this game, given that the Ravens and Buccaneers will be fighting it out in a potentially explosive tussle at the same time. The Los Angeles Chargers and Cardinals are not bad teams, but they are below average in our overall team metrics.
The Chargers are built around a second-ranked defense in EPA per game but have benefited from playing some poor positions in the Panthers, Raiders, and Broncos. Yet, they did do well defensively against the Chiefs, so there is more to them than just bullying bad teams. Los Angeles’ offense is the concern, with 26 points being the ceiling this year.
The Cardinals are hard to get a read on this season. The offense looks irreducible at times but ranks near the middle of the pack, while their defense is a bottom-third unit. They’ve failed to crack 15 points in three of their last four but should be in the game against an equally low-scoring Chargers team.
Prediction: Chargers 20, Cardinals 17
Pick: Pass
