After the loss in London, the New York Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh. Saleh finished his Jets tenure 20-36, but despite this poor record, his defenses ranked in the top five in two of his four years in points allowed.
The Buffalo Bills have dropped two straight games that could jeopardize AFC playoff seeding, with these losses coming to the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. On top of this, the Bills are still without Von Miller, Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, and potentially other key pieces.
Let’s look at all the NFL betting odds, picks, predictions, and more for this Monday night AFC East clash.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Betting Preview
- Spread
Bills -1 - Moneyline
Bills (-120); Jets (+100) - Over/Under
41 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Metlife Stadium
Prediction for Bills vs. Jets
Teams have four more wins than expected in games after a coach gets fired midseason. We’ll see if the Jets come out and play inspired football.
The Bills’ offense ranks sixth in EPA (expected points added) and is much better at passing the ball than running the ball (fifth vs. 13th). In expected passing situations, the Bills’ offense is performing even better, ranking fourth. The main struggle for the offense has been the offensive line, which ranks 23rd in pressure percentage allowed and 14th in PFF pass-blocking grade.
The poor offensive line play is not a result of overwhelming defenders, as the Bills have been blitzed at the 18th-highest rate and rank third in EPA against the blitz. This is a direct result of having Josh Allen at quarterback. The Bills have the eighth-highest time to throw but are third in sack rate. In fact, Allen’s pressure-to-sack rate is second-best in the league at just over 10%.
3rd and long? Josh Allen has you covered.#BUFvsMIA on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/psXy30zAMi— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2024
For comparison, the Ravens and Green Bay Packers have lower sack rates and are pressured at least 4% less than the Bills. The Jets will need to take advantage of the poor offensive line play and are well-suited to do so, ranking fifth in pressure generated. The Jets’ defense is performing well all-around, ranking fifth in defensive EPA and seventh in incompletions forced due to coverage.
The Bills’ defense ranks ninth in pass EPA and 18th in rush EPA. Their main weakness has been the secondary, where they rank 30th in incompletions forced by coverage and 26th in PFF coverage grade. Stylistically, the Bills rank 32nd in blitz rate but should reconsider this strategy because the Jets’ offense is 28th in EPA against the blitz.
Another advantage the Jets’ offense has is ranking fourth in EPA against Cover 2, which the Bills run at the second-highest rate in the league. What will help the Bills is that they do a great job mixing up coverages overall, ranking third in my Shannon-Entropy predictability rankings for defenses (which can be found here).
The Jets match up really well with the Bills. Both their defense and offense have the correct strengths and schemes to take advantage of the Bills’ weaknesses.
The only issue is that the Jets’ offense hasn’t proven capable of helping their defense, and the defense hasn’t played anyone of value outside of Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, the offensive EPA rank for the five Jets opponents this season are: fifth, 28th, 30th, 29th, and 21st.
My pick: Bills ML (-120)