As we hit the middle of October, the weather is starting to cause more issues for NFL games and fantasy football managers., Temperatures are dropping, rain levels are starting to increase, and in some parts of the country, we are seeing more wind than we have in previous weeks. Therefore, we have some tough decisions to make this week.
Let’s examine the Week 6 NFL weather forecast and determine what it means for fantasy managers in games across the country and over in London this week.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 6 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 6:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024. UK Weather data is from BBC Weather. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears Weather
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 2-5 mph variable
It is looking like a close-to-perfect day for the London game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears. We saw rain last week, and it caused havoc, with players slipping and sliding. That should not be an issue in Week 6, and when you combine that with almost perfect wind conditions, there isn’t much more you could ask for. Games played in those conditions typically see an average of 97 PPR fantasy points scored.
The only minor concern is the temperatures, which are very close to 50 degrees Fahrenheit. In those conditions, we see just over a 5% drop in fantasy output, mostly impacting the passing game. If the temperature drops below 50, we could see a slightly higher impact, with around a 10% decrease in fantasy output in those temperatures on average.
Most likely, we are looking at somewhere between a 5-10% drop in fantasy output from a perfect day in warmer temperatures. These are still good conditions, and there’s no reason to downgrade anyone in the passing game because of the weather in London.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: 67% chance at kickoff rising as the game progresses
- Wind: 8-11 mph westerly with potential gusts up to 20 mph
Things could get interesting weather-wise in Green Bay this week, with rain, wind, and cooler temperatures all forecasted. The chance of rain at kickoff is fairly high, and it only increases throughout the game.
It’s as close to certain as it gets that we will see rain at some point in this contest. The wind speed is set to start around 8 mph and then increase as the game goes on with gusts projected late in the fourth quarter.
A strong geomagnetic storm is headed to us tonight, so the Northern Lights are possible, but naturally, cloud cover will move back in tonight likely blocking this…but it's ahead of our next rain chance (finally)!
Looking to be a chilly, wet & windy day at Lambeau on Sunday! pic.twitter.com/POYpWZzCpm
— Alexis Staniec (@alexisstaniecwx) October 10, 2024
Dating back to 2019, games played in the rain with temperatures in the 50-60 Fahrenheit region saw around a 15% drop in PPR fantasy points compared to games played in clear conditions at higher temperatures. The temperature historically has impacted games by around 5%, with the rain adding another 10%.
The wind element is not a major concern for the majority of the game but could be an issue in the second half if the speed creeps above 10 mph and the gusts start sweeping in regularly. That could add another 5% decrease in PPR fantasy points, taking us to a potential 20% decrease overall.
Naturally, quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends will be most affected, with the main impact being on the passing game. Running backs actually see a slight increase in these conditions as teams look to keep the ball on the ground. Josh Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson, and James Conner should all see a boost in value this week.
All of the passing-game options become a concern to some extent. You likely are not benching Kyler Murray or Marvin Harrison Jr., but the fringier options, and potentially even Jordan Love, could be players to consider alternative options for.
The kicking game is also likely to see a downgrade, but you probably weren’t using either of these kickers this week anyway.
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-15 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 24 mph
The weather may not sound great in Baltimore, with winds reaching up to 25 mph, but fantasy managers need to look at all the context before making rash decisions. The sustained wind speeds will be around 10 mph at kickoffs, gradually rising to a max of 15 by the end of the game. Gusts are forecast throughout, rising from around 18 to 24 as the game progresses.
Games without rain that see sustained wind speeds in the 10-14 mph range usually see a 5% drop in PPR fantasy points per game compared to wind speeds below 5 mph. The gusts are also not a major issue overall, with games seeing a wind speed up to 24 mph at kickoff, seeing very similar numbers to those with winds in that 10-14 mph region.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: 15% chance at kickoff rising throughout the game
- Wind: 5-6 mph northeasterly
The weather conditions in Foxborough will be somewhat mixed as the Houston Texans take on the New England Patriots. The wind is not expected to provide any issues, and the temperature alone usually provides just a slight decrease in fantasy output. The wild card factor here is the rain, which could fall from kickoff, come later in the game, or may not fall at all.
The positive news is that the impact of rain, low wind speeds, and these temperatures combined is in the 5-10% region for fantasy purposes. Therefore, you’re likely not changing your decisions on Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, C.J. Stroud, etc., based on these conditions. As for the Patriots’ options, you likely weren’t using many of them anyway.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 9-13 mph southwesterly
The weather for the game between the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field is unlikely to cause fantasy managers any major headaches. The wind is the biggest concern, but even then, we’re talking about a maximum impact of around 5-10% in terms of fantasy output.
There’s no reason to worry about any of your fantasy players in this game based on the weather. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert, and Jalen Hurts all remain good options, while the Browns are very much “start at your own risk” type of players anyway.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-15 mph westerly with gusts up to 25 mph
Much like in Baltimore, the weather situation in Tennessee is going to look worse than it is.
Yes, the flags in the stadium will likely be billowing and there will be some gusts over 20 mph, but the general conditions are not that bad. The sustained wind speeds will likely not get above 15 mph, which typically sees a 5-10% decrease in fantasy output from a very still day.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6 mph northerly
It’s looking like largely perfect weather conditions in Colorado for the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos The wind speed is relatively low, there is no rain forecast in the next 48 hours, and the temperature is comfortable.
The biggest risk in those conditions sometimes in Denver is glare from the sun. However, there is a 40% sky covering, which should limit those issues.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 22 mph
This game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Cincinnati Bengals in Charlotte is another of those where the flags around the stadium may make things look worse than they actually are. The wind could get up above 20 mph, but it will just be gusts rather than sustained winds. The sustained speeds of 10 mph should have very little impact, so fantasy managers shouldn’t have too many concerns.
There may be an impact of around 5-10% in terms of fantasy points, but nothing worth making massive changes over. Over the next 48 hours, there is no rain forecast, and temperatures should be close to perfect in terms of fantasy scoring.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: 40% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8 mph southerly
For the second straight week, Sunday Night Football’s weather could get interesting. The current forecast doesn’t predict the same level of rain as last week, but there is a threat of rain throughout the game and thunder in the area. Therefore, we could see some delays and impact on fantasy scoring during this matchup.
There is the possibility that we will see a 15-20% decrease in fantasy points compared to a clear game played in higher temperatures. The key is really around the rain. The wind is not a major concern, so it’s just a matter of whether the rain and cooler temperatures combine to cause issues. In clear conditions, we would be looking at a 5-10% decrease in these temperatures.
Unfortunately, fantasy managers won’t have the luxury of waiting and seeing, with this being a Sunday Night Football kickoff.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Burrow should all be fine from a passing perspective. Zack Moss and the Giants’ RB group are also very much usable in either condition. If Malik Nabers were playing, you would probably still start him, but that’s where it ends in terms of fantasy options.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Weather
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-13 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 25 mph
We have back-to-back prime-time games in MetLife Stadium this weekend, and each has a different weather impact.
While rain could be the concern on Sunday, wind could cause issues on Monday with gusts up to 25 mph. Even though the majority of the winds should be in the 10-14 mph range, that is still a concern for fantasy options in the passing game at these temperatures.
Over the past five seasons, in games played with winds between 10-14 mph and temperatures on the 50-degree Fahrenheit border, there is typically around a 10-20% fantasy impact in terms of total PPR points. The running games should get a boost, but that is not overly helpful with major question marks over James Cook and Breece Hall for differing reasons.
With other fantasy options, you are still likely trusting Josh Allen and probably both Garrett Wilson and Dalton Kincaid. However, that might be it regarding players you can feel completely secure about starting this week on Monday Night Football.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.