Daily fantasy sports is a completely different beast than season-long. Succeeding in single-game DFS is even more of a challenge. We have an AFC East showdown on Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Here are my top DFS picks for Week 6 MNF.
Week 6 Monday Night DFS Showdown Picks
*This lineup presumes James Cook does not play. I have a second lineup below in the event Cook does play.
- CPT: Breece Hall ($14,100)
- FLEX: Braelon Allen ($5,400)
- FLEX: Aaron Rodgers ($9,000)
- FLEX: Josh Allen ($11,000)
- FLEX: Ty Johnson ($5,200)
- FLEX: Tyler Bass ($5,000)
Week 6 DFS Pick: Captain Breece Hall
It’s definitely risky putting Hall in the captain’s spot in light of his performance over the past two weeks. After posting games of 18.3, 24.2, and 18.3 in his first three games of the season, Hall scored a total of 10.5 fantasy points in Weeks 4 and 5 combined.
With this pick, we are hoping Hall isn’t as heavily rostered due to how poorly he’s played … because the stage is set for him to turn things around big time.
There’s no sugarcoating it — Hall has been bad. His 3.09 yards created per touch is outside the top 50 and he has just two carries all season of 15+ yards. However, are we really about to believe Hall is suddenly bad at football? No one actually thinks that.
The Bills have been arguably the biggest run-funnel defense in the league. Their two-high defensive look completely erases any downfield shots. Plus, Rodgers isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard. On the ground, though, the Bills might not be able to stop you!
The Bills are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Their rush defense EPA is 20th in the league, which is actually a lot better than I expected.
What really excites me about Hall, though, is his potential in the passing game. A staggering 29% of the total receiving yards allowed by the Bills have gone to running backs. Their opponents throw to the running back position 25.5% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league.
Hall is one of the best receiving backs in the league. His 15.2% target share is third in the league.
With the Jets having just fired head coach Robert Saleh and demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, we could see a recommitment to Hall in the passing game to run safe offensive plays and matriculate the ball upfield.
Week 6 DFS Pick: Braelon Allen
For many of the reasons we like Hall, we also like Braelon Allen. Even with the coaching changes, I still expect Allen’s role to remain significant. He’s been playing around 30-35% of the snaps since Week 2 and has out-produced Hall on the ground, averaging 4.47 yards per carry.
The path to victory here is the Jets scoring their touchdowns on the ground. Hopefully, we can get three between their two RBs.
Week 6 DFS Pick: Aaron Rodgers
I really don’t like going with Rodgers in addition to the two Jets running backs. It doesn’t create a cohesive narrative of how the game can go for us to win. Unfortunately, these things can happen on a single-game slate.
With multiple fantasy-relevant players injured, the options are limited. Hopefully, Rodgers can throw a touchdown or two to the running backs, which would really set us apart from the field as a Rodgers/RB double stack is unconventional and usually not a good idea. Thus, not many people should have it.
RODGERS TO BREECE HALL. @nyjets take the lead!
📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/9YO7lGki4Y— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Week 6 DFS Pick: Buffalo Bills Players
On the Bills’ side, Josh Allen feels like a must-start regardless of the lineup. Although he’s historically struggled against the Jets, this game does not possess enough high-upside fantasy assets to justify fading Allen. On any given week, he can go for 30+.
Given Allen’s rushing upside, it’s fine to play him without a stack partner. I’d love to add Khalil Shakir, but he’s unlikely to play with his sprained ankle. Unfortunately, there is no obvious replacement.
Keon Coleman is purely touchdown or bust. Curtis Samuel saw an increase in playing time, but not an increase in usage, catching one pass for no yards last week. Mack Hollins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the same players — clear-out guys who Allen never wants to throw to (rightfully so!).
Dalton Kincaid would be the obvious answer, but the Jets have been very stingy against tight ends. Just 15.9% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to the position, the eighth-fewest in the league. They have yet to allow a tight end to score.
Since this could be a low-scoring game, I like Bass as a rare kicker play for DFS. I like the combination of a good Bills offense against a good Jets defense to create drives that stall out in field goal range. Last season, Bass made seven field goals in the Bills’ two games against the Jets.
Finally, we are going with what I think will be the contrarian play at running back. Ray Davis is the flashy rookie that everyone wants to be the RB2. However, Johnson is the RB2 … I think. That’s the gamble, isn’t it?
With Cook out, this will be a timeshare. We are banking on Johnson getting the high-leverage touches. If it’s Davis on early downs and Johnson on passing downs and at the goal line, he should end up being a very good value at his low price.
Week 6 Monday Night DFS Showdown Picks — Second Lineup
*If James Cook is active, here is the pivot.
- CPT: Breece Hall ($14,100)
- FLEX: Braelon Allen ($5,400)
- FLEX: Tyler Conklin ($4,000)
- FLEX: Josh Allen ($11,000)
- FLEX: James Cook ($10,200)
- FLEX: Tyler Bass ($5,000)
As much as I’d love to fade an active Cook, there aren’t any desirable pass-catchers on the Bills and an overall lack of quality fantasy options in this game.
Given that we can adjust the lineup to remove the two backup Bills running backs and get Cook in there while retaining Josh Allen, Hall, Brealon Allen, and Bass, this is an excellent pivot in the event Cook is active.