We head into a second straight week of all-day Sunday football, with kickoffs spanning from 9:30 a.m. to 8:20 p.m. on the East Coast. That is a lot of football to consume and a lot of potential betting angles to consider.
To save you from having to wade through it all by yourself, Pro Football Network’s betting experts have their picks and predictions for Sunday of NFL Week 6.
Let’s take a look at our team’s top picks for this week. For analysis on each of these bets, keep scrolling down.
Chief Content Officer David Bearman’s Picks
- Chargers/Broncos u36
- Bears -1.5
- Texans/Patriots u38
- Commanders +7
PFN Analyst Jason Katz’s Picks
- Drake Maye over 24.5 rushing yards
- Ja’Lynn Polk over 24.5 receiving yards
- Terry McLaurin over 57.5 receiving yards
- Josh Jacobs over 66.5 rushing yards
- Bucky Irving over 37.5 rushing yards
PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Spencer Rattler 0 TD passes
- Jayden Daniels +7.5 rushing yards vs. Lamar Jackson
- Jayden Daniels + Derrick Henry over 133.5 rushing yards
- Jalen Tolbert + Amon-Ra St. Brown over 120.5 receiving yards
- Kirk Cousins +5.5 rush yards vs. Andy Dalton
NFL Week 6 Best Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears -1.5, 44.5
Bearman
The Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams are starting to figure things out. They have back-to-back wins, and Williams looked good in both. They are quietly 3-2 on the year, with both losses being one-score games. They are not there yet, but they are showing lots of promise to live up to the offseason hype.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the other side of things despite its win last week. Yes, they won their first game of the season, but they also blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter before pulling it out. I’m just not buying that they fixed it all and think the Bears are the better team here. The game is in London, so there is no home-field advantage, but we are still getting a nice price on Chicago.
Pick: Bears -1.5
Houston Texans -6.5, 38 vs. New England Patriots
Bearman
Another week, another New England Patriots under being played. As we said in this column last week, the Patriots’ offense is awful, and it showed in that abomination of a game vs. the Dolphins, which was another under winner. At 12.4 points per game, we are now going to see rookie Drake Maye under center. Good luck.
The Houston Texans’ pass offense leads the NFL, which is a little worrisome, but outside of the 29-point outburst in Week 1, the Texans have not lit up their opponents, scoring 19, 7, 24, and 23 points (18.4 per game). Even if they put up 24 again, I do not see the Patriots scoring two TDs, which they’ve done once all season.
Pick: Under 38
Katz
The best type of prop bets to take are ones where everyone is flying blind. It’s where the books have their smallest advantage. In this case, I think we have the advantage.
Maye was a very prolific rusher in college. He ran the ball 302 times for 1,209 yards in his three seasons at North Carolina.
The Patriots do not have the greatest receiving corps. Their offensive line can’t block anything. Maye is going to be running for his life. In his first career start, he is very likely to default to taking off when he senses trouble.
The Patriots are likely to experience a negative game script, so they will be trailing and, thus, throwing. I expect Maye to clear this easily and for this line to be 5-6 yards higher next week.
Pick: Drake Maye over 24.5 rushing yards
Katz
This is another bet where books are setting lines based on what has happened and not factoring in significant changes. Ja’Lynn Polk’s line has consistently been within a few yards of this number ever since the laughably high 36.5 total from Week 1, where we hammered the under and cashed easily.
Well, now it’s Week 6, and things are very different. Maye has supplanted Jacoby Brissett as the quarterback. Brissett’s catchable pass rate was 32nd in the league. Maye can’t possibly be worse.
If Polk had better quarterback play, he would easily have gone over 40 yards in each of his last two games, and this line would not exist. But … he didn’t, and now we get to take advantage.
Polk’s snap share was up to 83% in Week 4 and was 100% in Week 5. He’s seen 13 targets over that span after seeing a total of six targets in his first three games. The breakout is coming. It could very well be this week in a game where the Patriots project to trail against the superior Texans.
Pick: Ja’Lynn Polk over 24.5 receiving yards
Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens -7, 51.5
Bearman
As impressive of a start as the Vikings have had, the Washington Commanders have rolled off four straight wins and look better and better in each game. They followed two close wins over the Giants and Bengals with blowouts of the Cardinals and Browns.
Yes, facing the Baltimore Ravens is a step up in class, but a TD is a lot of points for an offense that has averaged 38 points per game in the last three. And it’s not like the Ravens had any answers for the Bengals last week, allowing 38 points in the shootout win.
Yes, the Ravens are back after starting 0-2, but this Commanders offense is no joke, and the defense played its best game of the season versus Cleveland. Rookie Jayden Daniels has the Commanders averaging 31 points per game this season, tops in the NFL. I expect another shootout in this one, but I think the Commanders can hang tough and cover the TD.
Pick: Commanders +7 (-125)
Katz
Why is this number so low? Terry McLaurin has hit 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games. His 27.3% target share is 12th in the league, and his air yards share is first. Daniels is playing like an MVP candidate, and his primary target is McLaurin.
The Ravens are allowing 8.1 yards per attempt, the fifth-most in the league. This is a bad pass defense that was just eviscerated by Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. If Chase can get to 193 yards, McLaurin can get to 60 in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week.
Pick: Terry McLaurin over 57.5 receiving yards
Soppe
There should be no shortage of highlights in the Commanders/Ravens game, but siding with the underdog is the play, given the advantage the projected game script presents. This season, teams drop back to pass 66.1% of the time when trailing, a massive edge over the 50.9% rate when leading and the bucket Daniels figures to find himself in as a 6.5-7-point underdog.
How these teams play also works into the rookie’s favor over Lamar Jackson – QBs drop back to pass 34.2 times per game against the Commanders (ninth-fewest) and 41.8 times per game against the Ravens (fifth-most). The reigning MVP was looking to run in the season opener with nine scramble attempts, but he has just nine such rush attempts since.
Daniels’ scramble rates have been consistent by week this season, and his splash play rate on those attempts (28.6% have gained 10+ yards) is higher than that of Jackson (22.2%).
If you’re really trying to overthink things — Jackson’s out-of-pocket career passer rating sits at a career-high 122.8. That doesn’t exclude him from tucking the ball, but with teams flocking his way when he breaks the pocket, his success rate on such passes helps the Ravens while also hurting his rushing upside.
The moneyline price on this prop is fine, but the price isn’t as juicy as you’d expect.
Pick: Jayden Daniels +7.5 rushing yards vs Lamar Jackson
DERRICK HENRY THE KING.
THIS. GAME.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/pyESOlZxkH— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
This number is two yards higher than Derrick Henry’s per-game average over his last four contests, and his getting us to the finish line by himself is certainly within the range of outcomes should the flow of his game follow the expectations of sports books.
This season, the Commanders rank 27th in rush defense EPA due to allowing a league-high 2.37 yards per carry before contact to running backs through five weeks. Henry hasn’t gained fewer than 3.30 yards per carry after contact since his rookie season, making 5.5 yards per carry very obtainable in this spot.
I’m leaning on Henry in this matchup (the Ravens have the fourth lowest pass rate over expectation this season, second lowest if you filter out the teams that have had multiple starts from a backup QB), something I’m doing with confidence as Washington’s pressure rate has quietly improved.
Commanders pressure rates, 2024:
- Weeks 1-3: 30.5%
- Week 4: 37%
- Week 5: 46.2%
That creates a need for the Ravens to pound the rock. Washington will need to be aggressive to force turnovers and win this game, but that’s hard to do if Henry is picking up yards in volume.
Daniels is averaging 60 rushing yards per game and has yet to check in under 39. The Ravens are the seventh-best rush EPA defense in the league, putting plenty on Daniels’ shoulders, who is averaging 11.4 carries per game. He doesn’t have to be overly efficient – if he’s flirting with a double-digit carry count, that pushes his expectation close to 50 yards, and that should be more than enough if Henry is playing in a plus game script.
Pick: Jayden Daniels + Derrick Henry over 133.5 rushing yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5, 41 vs. New Orleans Saints
Katz
The only game in which Bucky Irving hasn’t reached at least 44 rushing yards was Week 2 against a stout Lions run defense.
Irving is averaging 5.61 yards per carry. He is so massively superior to Rachaad White as a runner. Coaches are noticing, and Irving’s snap share has steadily ticked up this season. He’s been just over 40% in his past two games.
The New Orleans Saints just allowed 29-year-old, signed-off-the-street Kareem Hunt to run for over 100 yards against them. Irving is better than Hunt. With Spencer Rattler starting for the Saints, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are more likely to experience a positive game script and thus be in the position to run the ball. I expect Irving to out-carry White and hit 40+ yards once again.
Pick: Bucky Irving over 37.5 rushing yards -120 MGM 1u
Soppe
This is the math play of the week. Over the past 20 years, QBs drafted 100th or later own a 2% touchdown pass rate in their first career start; call me crazy, but I don’t think we are getting 50 attempts from Rattler this week. Obviously, he doesn’t need to get to 50 attempts to throw a touchdown, but based on historic averages, that’s what it would take.
Ignore that note if you’d like. Instead, could I sell you on this one-time pass funnel Buccaneers defense now being more vulnerable on the ground? Tampa Bay allows touchdown passes at the sixth-lowest rate (2.4%, down from 3.8% a season ago) and is the third-worst rush defense by EPA, a complete flip from what we saw last season.
The Saints are built around what Derek Carr does well: dump-offs with the occasional bomb. That can work if the defense feels threatened by the man under center, but that is unlikely to be the case entering this game. Even with Carr playing at an above-average rate, New Orleans ranks 27th in pass rate over expectation and dead last in red zone dropback rate (27.3%, NFL average: 52.7%).
Chris Olave is obviously great; based on Rattler’s press conference, his WR1 figures to be fed with regularity. Could he burn us? Of course. However, I’m willing to gamble at these odds, especially with Rashid Shaheed (hip) missing practices this week.
New Orleans’ run game doesn’t project as an efficient one in any matchup, let alone this one, creating a tough spot for the fifth-round pick. Carr opened the season on fire, but even he has just three touchdown passes over his past three games (89 pass attempts).
Pick: Spencer Rattler 0 TD passes
Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers -5.5, 47
Katz
Even in an inefficient day on the ground where he averaged 3.84 yards per carry, Josh Jacobs still got to 73 rushing yards against the Rams last week. He’s now gone over this number in three of his five games played.
This week, the Green Bay Packers are home against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is a massive run funnel. They are bottom five in defensive rush success rate and total defensive rush EPA.
The Cardinals are coming off a big road win over the 49ers. This is a perfect letdown spot where the Packers should be able to control the ball at home. The Packers want to be a running team. They lead the league with a 53% neutral game script run rate.
I know what you’re thinking. The two Malik Willis games skewed those numbers. Well, over the past two weeks with Jordan Love back, the Packers’ neutral game script run rate was 54%.
Expect Jacobs to push 20 carries in this one and possibly even get to 100 yards on the ground.
Pick: Josh Jacobs over 66.5 rushing yards -114 FD 1u
Los Angeles Chargers -3, 35.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Bearman
You know I love picking unders on games with two bad offenses, and that’s what we have here. With all due respect to the Denver Broncos putting up 34 last week, seven came off of a pick-six, and the Raiders’ defense is awful, which is why we didn’t bet the game’s under there last week.
The previous three Broncos games, all against teams with good defenses, totaled 19, 33, and 19 points. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers haven’t seen any of their four games go over 32 points, including a game against the same poor Raiders defense and a game versus the Chiefs and their offense.
The Broncos are 28th in yards per game, 21st in passing, and 28th in rushing. The Chargers are 29th in total offense and 31st in passing. The only unit in the top half of the league is the Chargers’ rushing offense, ninth with 127.8 rush yards per game, but that’s where Denver excels defensively, holding teams to 111 per game (10th).
Overall, Denver has the third-best defense, while the Chargers are fifth. Two top defenses and two sub-par offenses mean we are going under the total.
Pick: Under 36
Atlanta Falcons -6, 47 vs. Carolina Panthers
Soppe
I can’t resist. Did I enter Week 6 looking for this prop? No. Heck, I had no idea it would be posted, but this feels like an aggressive line when you consider that the over/under for these two combined is a juicy 0.5 yards on the ground.
Andy Dalton has 76 rush yards in 21 games since 2022. He has the third-highest quick-pass rate this season, a clear desire of the Carolina Panthers’ offense, as Bryce Young was among the league leaders in that category before his benching.
For these statue quarterbacks, the enemy of rush attempts is quick passes. I don’t think we see much of those looks from Kirk Cousins in this spot against the defense with the lowest pressure rate in the league. He ranks below average in quick-pass rate as it is, and if his talented pass catchers are given extended time to run routes, they should have success getting open.
It only takes one.
If we project the Atlanta Falcons to have success through the air, it only takes one extended play where they run their receivers downfield and Cousins clinches this bet with a thrilling seven-yard gain.
The fewest rushing yards by a starting quarterback in a game this season is negative two yards, something that has happened four times (one of which was Dalton). Even if you want to pencil Cousins in to match that, Dalton has been “held” to three or fewer rushing yards in 46.6% of his starts since 2017 — we could still cash this ticket with a negative Cousins total!
Pick: Kirk Cousins (+5.5) rush yards over Andy Dalton (-120)+
Detroit Lions -3, 52 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Soppe
I’m buying what Jalen Tolbert is selling, and by pairing him with a player like Amon-Ra St. Brown, I buy myself room for error — I could be completely wrong on Tolbert being a viable WR2 and still cash this prop.
Let’s start with the Detroit Lions’ ace WR1. On average, games with a total of 50+ over the past five seasons see 40.6 dropbacks per team. This season, the Dallas Cowboys are facing just 32.4 dropbacks per game this season (fifth-fewest).
Even if I don’t adjust for the total and we give Detroit 32 dropbacks as a low-end projection, St. Brown is averaging 93.9 receiving yards per game since the start of last season when running at least 32 routes (pulled down by a dud against the Bears — he’s hit 90 yards in nine of those 12 games).
He’s as steady an option as there is in the league, and coming off of a bye week to face a banged-up defense doesn’t exactly scare me off of him.
Against the stingy Steelers last week, four Cowboys hit 50 receiving yards. If St. Brown gives us 90, we only need 31 from Tolbert, and that isn’t a tall ask, especially if you like Dallas to be playing from behind.
Dak Prescott & Jalen Tolbert (4-yd GW TD)
🔹 Route: Shallow Cross
🔹 Coverage: Cover 1 (Man)
🔹 Target Separation: 1.0 ydTolbert: Career-high 7th reception of the night; accounted for 40.8% of Cowboys team air yards
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/PdHoX1eGSX
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 7, 2024
Secondary WRs vs. DET over their past three games:
- Chris Godwin/Michael Wilson/Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- +8.5% production over target expectation
- 23 catches
- 29 targets
- 2.04 yards per route
- Mike Evans/Marvin Harrison Jr./DK Metcalf
- -16.5% production over target expectation
- 12 catches
- 23 targets
- 1.89 yards per route
Detroit’s defense doesn’t rank among the elite in the game by any means, but with extended time and CeeDee Lamb profiling as the head of the Dallas snake, I think these trends may continue. I think there’s a path for both of these receivers to go over their listed totals, and by combining them courtesy of DraftKings, I give myself more wiggle room.
Pick: Jalen Tolbert + Amon-Ra St. Brown over 120.5 receiving yards