We still have a long way to go in the 2024 NFL season. With just five games in the books, most teams have yet to reach the toughest parts of their schedules. Nevertheless, we’re getting a clearer picture of various award races, including the quest for NFL MVP.
Kyle Soppe will break down the MVP race from a betting perspective before I personally handicap the favorites through the first month of the season.
NFL MVP Odds and Betting Analysis
Analysis from Kyle Soppe: This is a very fluid market that is clearly impacted by team success as much as statistical greatness. With that in mind, a six-pack of QBs has distanced themselves from the field a bit per FanDuel:
Odds To Win the 2024 NFL MVP
- Patrick Mahomes: +230
- C.J. Stroud: +600
- Lamar Jackson: +650
- Josh Allen: +900
- Jayden Daniels: +1100
- Sam Darnold: +1200
Next on the board is Brock Purdy (+1900), representing a clear tier break. There’s an interesting advanced metrics look at What To Make of Brock Purdy and Co. Through Week 5, but let’s stick to six favorites.
Patrick Mahomes
It’s a shame, but in voting awards like this that come without strict guidelines, the all-time greats can be a victim of their own success. If things don’t change in a major way soon, Mahomes isn’t likely to be the favorite the moment the Chiefs have a hiccup.
The star quarterback on an elite team is always going to be in this discussion, but for a player with two MVP trophies already on his mantle, the statistics are eventually going to have to look the part if he is to win a third.
First 5 Games
- 2018 (MVP): 8% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate, 112.7 Passer Rating
- 2022 (MVP): 7.9% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate, 110.5 Passer Rating
- 2024 (TBD): 3.8% TD rate, 3.8% INT rate, 88.9 Passer Rating
The Chiefs have a reasonably manageable schedule, and a historic season in terms of wins could be in store as they look to complete the NFL’s first-ever three-peat. Just understand that you need that to be the case for Mahomes to win this honor, as the raw personal statistics not only fall short of his lofty expectations, but they are ordinary compared to the rest of the field.
C.J. Stroud
The pieces seemed to be in place for Stroud to take home this award less than a week ago. He’s playing for a team that we expect to win a bunch of games and, as evidenced by the past two weeks (676 passing yards), he is capable of putting up gaudy numbers.
But standout receiver Nico Collins came up lame after a 67-yard touchdown catch against the Bills last week and will miss at least a month as the team opted to take a cautious approach and place him on IR with the hamstring injury.
Stroud is plenty capable of leading this team to success without his WR1, but is he capable of winning the MVP award without an alpha?
History would say no.
Let’s look at the recent MVP winners who didn’t threaten to break games open with their elite athleticism:
- 2022 Mahomes: Travis Kelce (110-1,338-12)
- 2021 Rodgers: Davante Adams (123-1,553-11)
- 2020 Rodgers: Davante Adams (115-1,374-18)
- 2018 Mahomes: Travis Kelce (103-1,336-10)
- 2017 Brady: Rob Gronkowski (69-1,084-8)
- 2016 Ryan: Julio Jones (83-1,409-6)
I could keep going, but you get the idea — it’s hard to put up the video game numbers without a star pass catcher, something Stroud will have to navigate for at least the short term.
Lamar Jackson
Could he become the sixth player in NFL history to repeat? It’s certainly possible as his yards per pass attempt mirror what he gave us last season along with an increase in touchdown rate and an interception rate that has been cut in half.
The tricky part with Jackson in year two under Todd Monken is growth. The Ravens won 13 games a season ago and will be hard-pressed to top that number this season. Without much increase in team success and the addition of Derrick Henry, arguing for Jackson as the most “valuable” gets a little difficult.
That said, if this defense continues to struggle against the pass, the script changes. If the narrative around Jackson is that he has carried this team to home-field advantage despite a bottom-five scoring defense, then we’ve added a wrinkle and that changes the math.
Josh Allen
Here is the name that checks the most boxes through the first month. Allen was on the short list of favorites entering the season, but his situation wasn’t nearly as friendly. While Mahomes, Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all saw their teams add high-end talent, Allen’s moved on from their veteran WR1 and complimentary WR2.
From a statistical profile point of view, everything Allen has done looks legitimate. His touchdown rate and his inevitability that comes when he tucks the ball hasn’t gone anywhere. Those are nice notes, but it’s his maturity as a passer that I think makes him an appealing option.
Allen hasn’t thrown an interception this season after firing a career-high 18 a season ago. If he can continue to limit the mistakes and this Bills team can finish this season like they did last (five straight wins), Allen could easily become the first player for this franchise to earn MVP honors since Thurman Thomas in 1991.
Jayden Daniels
By now, you’ve likely heard that Jim Brown is the only rookie to ever win the MVP. The fact that Daniels is dominating for a team that has already matched their win total from last season is nothing short of impressive but is it sustainable?
Washington has won four straight games, all of which, at season’s end, will look like tremendous number inflation spots (NYG, CIN, AZ, CLE). We will learn much more about Daniels over the next five weeks, as he gets game against the Ravens, Bears, and Steelers put on his plate and will be start to be the focal point of defenses more and more.
Could he do it? It’s possible, but the team success portion is also something we need to factor in. I understand that they are 4-1 out of the gates, but do you give them a better chance at winning the division or finishing third?
Sam Darnold
Much like Daniels, we need to distinguish between the MVP of the first month of the season and for 2024 as a whole. Daniels and Darnold would be 1-2 on my fictious ballot if an award was handed out for production/success up to this point, but that’s not the name of the game.
Darnold didn’t look great in London against the Jets (14/31, 179 yards, and an interception), struggling against a strong defense. Black marks like that can’t happen too often for an off-the-radar type to swoop in and win this award, especially when you consider the views of Darnold entering this season.
If Minnesota wins 13 games this season and takes the NFC North, will Darnold be given his flower or will the narrative be that Justin Jefferson is the best receiver on the planet? Or that Kevin O’Connell’s ability to scheme is second to none?
Darnold has thrown an interception in four of give games this season and barring a truly outlier season for the Vikings and/or the faltering of the names ahead of him on this list (something we saw happen last season for the most part), he looks overpriced at the moment. In fact, I’d argue that his early season success could enhance the case for a player like Jared Goff (+2200), as he will now be given credit for overcoming more challenges to a division title should Detroit finish atop the NFC North (and maybe the NFC as a whole).
With those notes in mind, let’s take a look at some of my favorite options through Week 5 and peel back a few layers to see if there is staying power atop the odds board.
Top NFL MVP Candidates Entering Week 6
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Analysis by Dakota Randall: Who saw this coming? You’re lying if you said you did.
Many believed Jayden Daniels would get off to a strong start, as he was considered the most pro-ready quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. But nobody predicted he’d play this well while leading the Washington Commanders to a 4-1 start.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix have combined for 10 wins this season. 📈
Here's how the rookie starting QBs stack up after Week 5. 👀 pic.twitter.com/8Jk5IIGWIu
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 7, 2024
Daniels has been incredible through the first five games. The No. 2 overall pick currently ranks first in EPA (expected points added) per dropback, fourth in explosive player percentage, first in completion percentage, and fourth in passer rating, per TruMedia.
Daniels also owns Pro Football Network’s highest 2024 QB grade.
While Daniels’ passing has been better than expected, his rushing ability has come as advertised. His 300 rushing yards rank second among all quarterbacks, trailing only Lamar Jackson’s 363.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold arguably was the top NFL MVP candidate through four weeks, but his case took a hit last Sunday.
Darnold, who still led the undefeated Minnesota Vikings to a win over the New York Jets, completed 14 of 31 passes for 179 yards and zero touchdowns while throwing one pick and taking four sacks.
The spotty performance continued a recent trend of Darnold making more turnover-worthy plays than he was early in the season.
Hero Throws vs Turnover Worthy Throws
– Mahomes surrounded by Minshew, Daniel Jones, and Caleb Williams
– The clock might be ticking on Sam Darnold's success
– Brock Purdy is playing his best ball right now pic.twitter.com/AZxnZLq02g— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) October 8, 2024
However, we’re not going to over-punish Darnold for one bad game.
The reality is Darnold still ranks sixth in passer rating and 11th in explosive play percentage. However, he’s 19th in EPA per dropback and 23rd in completion percentage.
Darnold currently owns our 14th-highest QB grade for the 2024 season. If he wants to be a serious MVP contender, he must string together more high-level performances.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
The reigning MVP is making a strong case for a repeat.
Jackson ranks second behind Geno Smith in total offensive yards with 1,569. He also ranks third in explosive play percentage, second in EPA per dropback, and third in passer rating.
No matter how you slice it, Jackson was one of the NFL’s best players in the first five weeks. And he remains the league’s most dangerous and explosive rushing quarterback.
LaMarvelous ✨@Ravens | @LJ_era8 pic.twitter.com/BpnnbsUKVl
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 7, 2024
Jackson would’ve been lower on these rankings after Week 3. The Baltimore Ravens were just 1-2, and Jackson, to that point, was averaging just 234 yards per game with three TDs and one interception.
However, the last two weeks saw him amass 504 yards and six touchdowns to go along with zero interceptions and just two sacks. The Ravens, who won both games, are back to looking like an AFC powerhouse.
Jackson currently owns our fourth-highest QB grade for the 2024 season.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
A running back hasn’t won NFL MVP since 2012, when Adrian Peterson took home the award. Overall, 16 running backs have won MVP, compared to 38 quarterbacks.
So, history isn’t on Derrick Henry’s side. But if the star running back keeps up his current pace, he’ll have a real shot at winning MVP.
Henry currently leads the league with 572 rushing yards, ranks third among running backs with 6 yards per rush, and is tied for first with six rushing TDs. The veteran also ranks first in rush EPA, second in explosive rushes, and 15th in average yards after contact.
The Ravens almost busted their blocking assignments on Derrick Henry’s big overtime run pic.twitter.com/2DrNJhag5W
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 7, 2024
The Ravens were criticized for signing Henry in an era of reduced RB value. Yet, they look like the smart ones now, as Henry and Jackson look like the most dangerous QB-RB duo in the league.
Henry also benefits from playing for a marquee franchise with Super Bowl aspirations. If he continues playing well, especially in big games later in the season, he’ll earn plenty of MVP votes.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen might’ve topped this list through three weeks.
Despite playing with a worse group of pass catchers than in previous seasons, Allen averaged 211.3 yards per game while throwing seven TDs and zero picks to go along with 85 rushing yards. The Bills, who won all three games, looked like a top contender.
But the last two weeks have been a different story.
Allen completed just 42.37% of his passes for 311 yards and one TD to go along with zero picks, one fumble, and four sacks. Sure, his subpar supporting cast deserves much of the blame, but at the end of the day, Allen’s numbers need to improve if he wants MVP consideration.
His 160 rushing yards rank sixth among all quarterbacks, as does his PFN QB grade.
Just Outside the Top Five: QB C.J. Stroud, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Joe Burrow, QB Brock Purdy, QB Jared Goff