As we navigate the month of October, the weekly NFL picks become a different exercise. Early on, there’s a bunch of guesswork and attempts to project the unknown. Now, we are approaching the information evaluation portion of the season as we look to make the most of the data points provided to us and beat the books.
You up for it?
Within each game, you get our staff picks and my official Week 6 play for the game. Make it through the entire article, and you’ll get my best ATS/total pick for each game!
Pro Football Network’s Week 6 Predictions
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Moneyline Picks
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (TNF)
- David Bearman: Seahawks
- Adam Beasley: 49ers
- Dallas Robinson: 49ers
- Kyle Soppe: 49ers
The 49ers rank sixth in average yards per play differential, have a neutral turnover differential, and own the most favorable average point spread. That profile is typically reflective of a team leading its division, not one with a losing record.
The time is coming as San Francisco’s roster gets healthier, and we could see the first step in their come up this week before marquee games against the Chiefs and Cowboys in Weeks 7-8.
Favorites have covered 10 of the past 13 divisional games on Thursday night with an average cover margin of 6.8 points. That trend points in the direction of a two-possession win for the visitors, which was the case in both these teams meetings a season ago.
Pick: 49ers -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (London)
- Bearman: Bears
- Beasley: Jaguars
- Robinson: Jaguars
- Soppe: Jaguars
London unders. Whether it’s based on the quality (or lack thereof) team that we send across the pond, the odd body-clock situation, the field conditions, or anything else, these London games have been rock fights in large.
The last eight London games have gone under the total, a trend that was pushed to the brink last week when the Vikings beat the Jets 23-17 in a game that closed with a 42-point total.
That trend is a good bet to continue this week with two bottom-10 third-down offenses facing off. Punts are the enemy of over bettors, and we are likely to see plenty of them with two teams that have had sporadic play under center through five weeks.
Pick: Under 44.5
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
- Bearman: Packers
- Beasley: Packers
- Robinson: Packers
- Soppe: Packers
This game has the potential to be one of the more entertaining of the Week 6 slate. But while Kyler Murray will play a part in the highlights, his team hasn’t been successful in spots like this. Over his past seven starts in a game with a projected total north of 48 points (this total currently sits at 49.5), Murray’s Cardinals are just 2-5 against the spread.
Jordan Love has rounded into form after missing a pair of games with an MCL injury, giving the home team a good chance to beat a NFC West team for the second time in as many weeks.
The over may seem appealing in this game with a pair of strong quarterbacks, but be careful. Unders are 25-14 (64.1%) in the last 39 games in which the spread has settled in this awkward 4.5-5.5 range.
Pick: Packers -5
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
- Bearman: Titans
- Beasley: Colts
- Robinson: Colts
- Soppe: Colts
This divisional showdown profiles as the most coin flip of coin flips with both teams struggling to showcase consistency on the offensive side of the ball. Will either get solid quarterback play on Sunday?
Your guess is as good as mine, but I do feel good about saying that neither team will be able to run the ball at a high level. Jonathan Taylor will likely miss a second straight game, and the Titans have been defined for years by Derrick Henry,who is now steamrolling defenders for the Ravens.
Both defenses rank top 10 in rush defense EPA (expected points added) through five weeks, further applying pressure to a weak spot of these offenses.
Since the start of 2022, unders are 36-22 (62.1%) when a team is favored by less than two points. I don’t doubt that this game will be competitive; it just doesn’t profile as one that will see points put on the board on a consistent basis.
Pick: Under 43
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
- Bearman: Texans
- Beasley: Texans
- Robinson: Texans
- Soppe: Texans
From 2015-19, home teams catching more than six points covered just 39.8% of the time. Since, however, that rate has spiked to 58.1%. The NFL as a whole is a competitive league, and recently, the mismatch spots like this have been overestimated by the books.
With the Patriots welcoming in the Drake Maye era and the Texans operating without the best receiver through the early portion of the season, there is a path for this game to stay close longer than most want to assume — not to mention the idea that a backdoor cover is wide open with New England valuing every single rep that their rookie signal-caller gets.
Pick: Patriots +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
- Bearman: Buccaneers
- Beasley: Buccaneers
- Robinson: Buccaneers
- Soppe: Buccaneers
A week ago, this looked like a matchup of two quarterbacks performing over preseason expectations. Yet, with an oblique injury sidelining Derek Carr for this week (and likely next), the feel for this game has changed.
Baker Mayfield has covered 10 of his past 13 games as a road favorite, a situation he finds himself in this week. The Saints’ defense is strong, but it’s their offense that gives me pause without Carr — this is a unit tailor-made to his strengths.
Tampa Bay might have more offensive balance as we move into the Bucky Irving era, giving the Buccaneers the ability to close at a level that hasn’t been there in years past.
Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
- Bearman: Eagles
- Beasley: Eagles
- Robinson: Eagles
- Soppe: Eagles
The mess in Cleveland is no secret, and the point spread certainly accounts for that. With the Eagles coming off a bye, they are the biggest favorite on the board this week, and I can’t say I disagree at all.
Jalen Hurts-led teams are 0-6-1 in their past seven when favored by more than six points, which is terrifying. I mentioned the competitive nature of the NFL these days, and that has me skittish about laying a big number, so I’m looking at the total.
For his career, overs are 13-4 when Hurts is in those spots as a big favorite, and that is the angle I’m willing to back. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back in the fold, a 30-point outing from the home team is very possible. If that’s the case, I like our chances.
Pick: Over 43.5
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
- Bearman: Ravens
- Beasley: Commanders
- Robinson: Ravens
- Soppe: Ravens
Jayden Daniels was able to make free rushers miss and create big plays under pressure in the Commanders win over the Browns
Daniels was blitzed on more than half of his dropbacks but was 8/12 for 150 yards in those situations, per NFL Pro pic.twitter.com/HKwQIMnHU8
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) October 6, 2024
Since 2019, big favorites in high total games have struggled. When teams are favored by at least six points with a closing total north of 50, they’re just 21-38 ATS (35.6%). That’s a trend that allows us to bet on Jayden Daniels with confidence, and that’s always a good spot to be.
Our perception of the Ravens is that of a gutty and physical defense — that ain’t it in 2024. This is a pass-funnel defense, which makes covering a big number even more difficult. If Washington falls behind, they’re going to be forced to abandon the run, which might be the best thing that can happen to them.
I don’t love the chances of an outright win, but we have a few paths to success here. The backdoor cover is an option, but so is a Baltimore run-centric attack that limits the possession count and brings in a low total.
Pick: Commanders +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
- Bearman: Broncos
- Beasley: Chargers
- Robinson: Chargers
- Soppe: Broncos
Each of Sean Payton’s last five games as a home underdog has gone under the total, a trend I like to continue with him facing the slowest operating offense in the NFL that is coming off a bye.
This is the lowest total on the board, and I’m not sure it’s low enough. If neither team reaches 20 points, we’re sitting pretty, and I think that’s the case in a game that you might forget is happening if you’re consuming football via RedZone on Sunday.
Pick: Under 35.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Bearman: Steelers
- Beasley: Steelers
- Robinson: Steelers
- Soppe: Steelers
Betting against Mike Tomlin isn’t something I enter any week with the desire to do. That is magnified in low total spots where a coaching tweak can make all the difference.
Pittsburgh has covered 12 of its past 14 games with a sub-40 point total, something that is going to be the case against a Vegas team that will be without its WR1 again and can’t decide who they want under center.
Pick: Steelers -3
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
- Bearman: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Robinson: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
The Lions are coming off of their bye while the Cowboys hung on for a Week 5 prime-time win over the Steelers. With injuries piling up on the defensive end for Dallas, I tend to lean toward the road team, but it’s not my favorite play.
Detroit has the eighth-highest rush rate in the league and the type of roster that can ice a game with its two-headed backfield. Rico Dowdle impressed last weekend for the Cowboys, and if we are looking at an offense with a semblance of balance, their pace is at risk of slowing in a significant way.
In his last seven games with a total of at least 50 points, Dak Prescott starts have cashed six under tickets — I like him to make it seven of eight.
Pick: Under 52.5
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
- Bearman: Falcons
- Beasley: Falcons
- Robinson: Falcons
- Soppe: Falcons
The Falcons are coming off of an emotional win over the Bucs, their fifth tightly contested game in as many weeks to open the Kirk Cousins era. Carolina isn’t at the talent level of any team that Atlanta has played up to this point, but the Panthers are catching a big number and that gives me pause.
Don’t look now, friends, but per the Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em:
Chuba Hubbard has three straight games with at least 95 rushing yards, four receptions, and a touchdown.
- That’s a club that Christian McCaffrey is not a part of.
- That’s a club that Saquon Barkley is not a part of.
- That’s a club that Le’Veon Bell is not a part of.
- That’s a club that LaDainian Tomlinson is not a part of.
In fact, since 2008, the only other running backs to have three straight games checking all of those boxes are 2018 Ezekiel Elliott (Weeks 10-12) and 2018 James Conner (Weeks 5-9).
Cousins-led teams are 2-6 ATS in his past eight as a favorite of 6+ points, and if Carolina can keep the possession count in check, I think the trend of close Atlanta games extends another week.
Pick: Panthers +6
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
- Bearman: Giants
- Beasley: Bengals
- Robinson: Bengals
- Soppe: Bengals
For my money, it’s the 49ers and Bengals when it comes to talent levels that don’t match up with their current win-loss record. Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level and brings into this game a 9-1 ATS mark in his past 10 against the NFC.
Daniel Jones is playing well right now, but there’s a big gap between “playing well” and “keeping up with Burrow.” I think he does the former but not the latter.
Pick: Bengals -3
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
- Bearman: Jets
- Beasley: Bills
- Robinson: Bills
- Soppe: Bills
Week 6 wraps up with an interesting AFC East battle that has a little bit of everything. From a franchise that just fired its head coach to quarterbacks who inspire strong feelings from every football consumer, regardless of fandom, I’m looking forward to this one.
Since 2022, unders are 10-1 when Josh Allen plays in a game with a spread of less than three points. With Aaron Rodgers on the other sideline, I like that trend.
The Jets run down the play clock on a consistent basis, and the Bills, under Joe Brady, have slowed their pace.
While the quarterbacks get the attention of both teams, I like the chances of both running games getting going in this spot. If that happens, the turnover equity drops and the clock keeps running.
Pick: Under 41
Soppe’s Week 6 Betting Card
- 49ers -3.5
- Jaguars/Bears under 44.5
- Packers -5
- Colts/Titans under 43
- Patriots +7
- Buccaneers -3.5
- Browns/Eagles over 43.5
- Commanders +6.5
- Chargers/Broncos under 35.5
- Steelers -3
- Lions/Cowboys under 52.5
- Panthers +6
- Bengals -3
- Bills/Jets under 41