We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, so we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to!
Bye Week Schedule
- Week 6: Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings
- Week 7: Bears, Cowboys
- Week 9: Steelers, 49ers
- Week 10: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (TNF)
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The Niners have beaten the Seahawks in four straight games, tied for their longest win streak ever vs Seattle (also 4 straight from 2010-12).
QB: Brock Purdy is averaging a league-high 3.14 seconds to throw, and he’s made lots of big plays on extended dropbacks. On throws taking 3+ seconds, Purdy averages 12.8 yards per attempt and 0.45 EPA per dropback. On throws under 3 seconds, he’s at 6.3 yards per attempt and -0.07 EPA per dropback.
Offense: The 49ers have the fifth-worst average starting field percentage this season (their own 27.9-yard line). All four teams in the NFC West rank in the bottom 10 through five weeks.
Defense: The 49ers own the average highest time of possession this season +8:35) by more than two full minutes (second place, Texans: +6:22).
Fantasy: Purdy is pacing for a very valuable 367 rushing yards this season and faces a Seahawk defense that has allowed the two most viable QBs they faced this season (Jared Goff and Daniel Jones) to complete 41-of-52 passes for 549 yards and four touchdowns.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in eight of San Francisco’s last nine road divisional games.
Seattle Seahawks
Team: The Seahawks have lost four straight Thursday games, the third-longest active streak behind the Giants (9 straight) and Saints (5).
QB: Through five weeks, 28 different quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game – Geno Smith is not on that list.
Offense: When the game is within one score, the Seahawks have dropped back to pass on 67.2% of their plays, the highest rate in the NFL.
Defense: It’s inflated by a soft schedule up to this point, but the Seahawks are allowing the seventh-fewest yards per drive this season (they ranked 32nd in 2023).
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III had some game script concerns last season (7.6 carries per reception), but he’s seemingly plugged that hole this season (11 catches against 17 carries over the past two weeks).
Betting: Seattle has only been 3-6 ATS over the past three seasons at home when facing a divisional rival.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (London)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: The Jaguars earned their first victory of the season on Sunday (37-34 over the Colts), making this the first time since 2019 that Jacksonville has won its most recent game in the United States before departing for London.
QB: Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards last week against the Colts, the first time he cleared 220 this season. Over his past two games, Lawrence is averaging a touchdown pass once every 16.8 attempts (Weeks 1-3: 44.5).
Offense: The Jaguars are averaging a league-best 4.2 yards after contact per rush. That’s been a weakness for the Bears defense, which ranks 26th with 3.3 yards after contact allowed per rush.
Defense: Jacksonville has forced a turnover on just 1.9% of drives, easily the lowest mark in the NFL. Over the past 20 years, the low watermark for turnover rate for an entire season is the 2018 49ers (3.9%).
Fantasy: Travis Etienne’s next PPR finish inside the top 20 at the position this season will be his first. He was on the field for 72.1% of offensive snaps in Week 3 against the Bills, 51.7% against the Texans in Week 4, and just 38.6% against the Colts on Sunday.
Betting: Each of Jacksonville’s last four London games has gone under the projected total (5.6 PPG below the closing total) – the Jags have covered three of those contests.
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears are seeking a third straight win. Their last three-game win streak came in Weeks 14-16, 2020 (that means they haven’t strung three wins together since we went to an 18-week schedule).
QB: Caleb Williams has exactly five rush attempts in four of five games this season and has posted his top-2 PFN QB+ grades in the past two weeks. He gets a favorable matchup this week (JAX: fifth-most yards per pass attempt allowed) before facing the Commanders and Cardinals coming out of his Week 7 bye.
Offense: The Bears have improved their points per drive with each passing week (0.90, 1.08, 1.33, 2.40, and 3.00 last weekend against the Panthers).
Defense: The Bears have the best defensive EPA per dropback this season (0.28). It’s Chicago’s best defensive EPA per dropback since at least 2000.
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift’s snap share isn’t budging (exactly two-thirds in three of his past four games), but he has posted consecutive top-5 PPR weeks at the position and faces the third-worst red zone defense in the league up to this point.
Betting: The Bears have covered four straight games as a favorite, the longest active streak in the NFL. Another cover would tie their longest streak since 2000 (five straight in 2018 and 2005-06).
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals
Team: All-or-nothing in terms of competition. The Cardinals have played three games, which were decided by seven or fewer points (24-23 win last week in San Francisco), and two games were decided by at least 28 points this season.
QB: Kyler Murray owns an 86.4 Passer Rating in the pocket this season, pacing him for a third straight season of decline.
Offense: The Cardinals (1.80) are the only NFL team through five weeks committing fewer than two offensive penalties per game.
Kyler Murray reached a top speed of 21.27 mph on his 50-yard TD run, the fastest speed by a quarterback as a ball carrier over the last 8 seasons.#AZvsSF | @AZCardinals pic.twitter.com/K9vTkOKURA
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 6, 2024
Defense: Arizona is allowed the third most yards per drive this season (36.4 yards).
Fantasy: James Conner was one of the most efficient fantasy RBs a season ago and has opened 2024 with four top-20 finishes in five weeks. Are the Packers, the fourth worst run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs after carry, the team that will stop that trend?
Betting: Kyler Murray has covered 18-of-24 (75%) of his career road games when playing outside of the NFC West.
[pmpro_signup title=”Enter Your Email Address to Keep Reading For Free!” short=”false” level=”8″ confirm_password=”true” confirm_email=”false” submit_button=”Sign Up Now for Free!” login=”true” redirect=”https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-stats-insights-research-week-5-2024/”] [/membership] [membership]Green Bay Packers
Team: In four straight games, the Packers have won a quarter by at least 10 points (Q1 in Week 2, Q1 in Week 3, Q4 in Week 4, and Q3 in Week 5).
QB: Jordan Love has been blitzed at the highest rate in the league this season (40.8%). Love has struggled against the blitz, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt (fifth-lowest) with three interceptions. The Cardinals just blitzed on a season-high 39% of dropbacks on Sunday vs the 49ers.
Offense: The Packers picked up just 12.5% of third downs last week, their worst rate in a game in which Love has started (two of their three worst third down showings under Love have come this season).
Defense: Xavier McKinney has an interception in all five games this season. Another would tie the longest streak to begin a season since the 1970 merger (also done by 2021 Trevon Diggs, 2003 Brian Russell, and 1987 Barry Wilburn).
Fantasy: Tucker Kraft is the only tight end with 50 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games this season.
Betting: Jordan Love beat the Rams 20-3 in his first home start as a favorite of more than a field goal. He’s made three such starts since. Overs are 3-0 in those games, clearing the total by 15.2 points per game.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts join the 2022 Falcons as the only teams over the past five years to open a season with five straight games decided by six or fewer points.
QB: Joe Flacco has five touchdown passes in 70 career attempts as a Colt (Anthony Richardson: six on 161 attempts).
Offense: Shane Steichen has been a far more aggressive play-caller with Joe Flacco than Anthony Richardson. With Flacco on the field, the Colts have dropped back to pass 63.4% of the time when the game is within one score. With Richardson on the field, the Colts have dropped back 44.9% of the time in one-score situations.
Defense: The Colts pressured Trevor Lawrence on just one out of 34 dropbacks in Week 5. That 2.9% pressure rate is the lowest by a team in any game since PFF began tracking pressure rates in 2019. For the season, Indy has the fifth-lowest pressure rate (26.9%).
Fantasy: The revolving door at quarterback could impact things, but Michael Pittman earned a 39% in his last meeting with the Titans.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Colts have been 3-1 ATS in road divisional games, and all four of those contests have gone over the closing total.
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have been out-scored 54-31 at home this season and have failed to score more than 17 points in four of their past five in front of their fans.
QB: The idea of a shortened average depth of throw is, usually, to assume less risk. Will Levis’ average depth of throw is down 26.7% from last season, while his interception rate sits at 6.1% (up from 1.6% during his rookie season)
Offense: The Titans are gaining a league-high 29.8 yards per game over their opponents in penalty yardage (the Colts have more penalty yards against than yards gained this season).
Defense: Tennessee has forced a punt on half of its drives this season, the highest rate in the league and well ahead of its 39.2% rate from a season ago. Since 2017, only once has a team forced its opponents to punt on the majority of its drives (2023 Browns, 50.5%).
Fantasy: The regression Gods were in your favor last week if you started Alec Pierce. Can it sustain? The deep threat recorded 22.4 PPR points last week on an underwhelming 6.7% target share.
Betting: The Titans have covered 12 of their past 15 games on extended rest and are coming off of their bye week.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have won each of their past seven games, which was decided by a single score (4-0 in such games this season, with three of those victories coming by less than five points).
QB: This season, Nico Collins is averaging 12.6 yards per target, while all other members of this offense check in at 6.6.
Offense: Houston is averaging a league-high 6.00 offensive penalties per game, double their count from a season ago.
Defense: Only the Jets have a higher sack rate than the Texans since Week 7 of last season (HOU: 9.5% of dropbacks).
Fantasy: Dare Ogunbowale has popped up as a PPR asset and appears here to stay as long as Joe Mixon is out of the lineup. For his career, 38% of Ogunbowale’s touches (59.5% of his yards) have come through the passing game.
Betting: This is C.J. Stroud’s sixth career game as a road favorite – his Texans are 1-4 ATS in the first five.
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are a league-worst 1-10 at home since 2023. Their seven straight home losses are tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history, behind a 10-game streak from 1989-91.
QB: At his current pace in both attempts per game and touchdown rate, it would take Jacoby Brissett would need this season to be extended to 138 games for him to break Peyton Manning’s single season touchdown record (55).
Offense: The Patriots have allowed a sack on 13.3% of dropbacks (third highest rate) and average 250.8 yards of offense (second lowest; only the Browns have been worse, 239.4).
Defense: Opponents are opening drives on their own 26-yard line against the Patriots, the fifth-worst average starting field position thus far.
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson was benched for the start of Week 5 and logged a season-low 45.5% snap share – and yet, thanks to a 33-yard touchdown, posted his third top-12 finish at the position (PPR).
Betting: During their seven-game home losing streak, the Patriots are 0-5-2 ATS. Their seven straight home games without a cover is the longest active streak in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Tampa Bay was 0-3 on extended rest last season and was out-gained by 591 yards across those contests.
QB: Including the playoffs, Baker Mayfield has posted a 110.6 Paser Rating over his past 11 games (8.3 yards per pass). Since 2020, only twice has a QB finished a season satisfying both of those thresholds (2023 Brock Purdy and 2020 Deshaun Watson).
Offense: The Buccaneers have scored 30 points three times this season, just the second time since 2004 in which they’ve pulled that off (also: 2021 in Tom Brady’s second season with the team).
Defense: Tampa Bay has created pressure on 34.2% of non-blitz dropbacks, a nice improvement from their 28% rate a season ago.
Fantasy: Mayfield has cleared four fantasy points with his legs in three games this season, two more than he did in all of 2023.
Betting: Since 2018, overs are 12-4 when the Bucs are an underdog in a divisional game.
New Orleans Saints
Team: Just one of New Orleans’ past 10 games against Tampa Bay, including the playoffs, has been decided by one possession (the Saints are 6-4 across those games).
QB: Derek Carr has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his past 10 games (at least three TD tosses in three of his past four home games).
Offense: New Orleans scored 31 first-quarter points through the first two weeks of this season, but they’ve managed just 10 first-quarter points since.
Defense: The Saints are easily the best red zone defense in the league this season regarding opponent drives inside the 20 that result in a touchdown, positioning them for a fourth straight top-10 finish in that metric.
Fantasy: Rashid Shaheed has more games with over 70 receiving yards this season (four) than last year (three).
Betting: The Saints are just 1-5 ATS in their past six games on short rest and are coming off of a Monday Nighter in Kansas City.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have failed to score 20 points in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest by a Browns team since 2011 (eight straight games from Week 3-11).
QB: Deshaun Watson has posted a -66.75 dropback EPA this season. That’s the worst by any QB through the team’s first five games since at least 2000. Watson eclipsed the prior low-water mark held by 2013 Blaine Gabbert (-62.79).
Offense: The Browns lead the league in dropback rate this season, and it’s not just the result of the game script—they rank second in pass rate when the score is within eight points.
Defense: Cleveland ranks 5th in the percentage of opponent drives that go three-and-out (40%) and is facing an Eagles team that, since 2022, has gone three-and-out on just 29.8% of drives (the seventh lowest rate).
Fantasy: Jerome Ford’s snap share is trending in the wrong direction (over 77% in Weeks 3 and 4, but just 59.3% last week), but he is still the lead man for the time being and is facing an Eagles defense that is allowing a league-high 2.25 running back carries per game of at least 15 yards.
Betting: The Browns are just 1-4 ATS, and their -46.5 cover margin ranks third worst in the league (only the Panthers and Dolphins have been worse, two teams that have had multiple QBs start for them this season).
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles have won consecutive games following their bye in the past three seasons.
QB: Jalen Hurts has a turnover in nine straight games, the second-longest active streak behind Patrick Mahomes (10). The only longer streak by an Eagles player in the last 25 seasons belongs to Michael Vick (12 straight from 2010-11).
Offense: The Eagles are the only team yet to score in the first quarter this season. If they fail to score again, it will tie their longest streak of scoreless first quarters in the last 25 seasons (they did it six straight games in 2012).
Defense: Philadelphia ranks 31st in the percentage of opponent drives that go three-and-out (19.5%) and is facing a Browns team that goes three-and-out at the fifth-highest rate in the league 40.7%)
Fantasy: Saquon Barkley is pacing for 2,210 yards and has a pair of top overall PPR RB finishes this season.
Betting: In regular season games where Jalen Hurts is favored by more than five points, overs are 15-6 (71.4%, average over margin: 7.2 PPG).
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington’s four-game win streak is tied for their longest in the last 10 seasons. The last time they won five in a row was in 2012 (seven straight) during Robert Griffin III’s rookie season.
QB: Jayden Daniels has 1,135 pass yards and 300 rush yards this season. He’s the third player in NFL history with 1,000 pass yards and 300 rush yards in his first five games of a season, along with Lamar Jackson (4x) and Michael Vick (2x).
Offense: The Commanders have a league-high 13 Rush TD, tied with the 1975 Miami Dolphins for the most through five games in the Super Bowl era. Now they’ll face a Ravens defense allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per rush.
Defense: Does Washington have a prayer against the Ravens’ league-leading rushing attack? The Commanders allow the second-most yards per rush (5.1), including the fourth-most yards before contact (2.0). Baltimore leads the NFL in both those rushing categories on offense.
Fantasy: Jayden Daniels has been a top-5 fantasy QB in all three road starts this season. In his last two road starts (Weeks 3-4), he threw for over 200 yards while completing 80% of his passes with a rushing score – Kyler Murray (2021) is the only player to check those three boxes in consecutive games since 2000.
Betting: The Commanders are already 2-1 ATS on the road and have quietly been one of the better ATS-road teams recently – their last losing ATS season on the road came in 2017 (Kirk Cousins’ final season).
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens’ point total has risen every week this season (20-23-28-35-41), not a bad trend to take into Week 6, the week in which their season began to take off last season (3-2 through five weeks, 10-1 over their next 11 games).
QB: Lamar Jackson is averaging 11.1% more yards per attempt, has cut his interception rate in half, and has seen his pass TD rate more than double from where his rates stood through five games of his 2023 MVP campaign.
ONLY LAMAR. WOW.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/KenO7criwG— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Offense: The Ravens have rushed for at least 100 yards in 38 straight games, tied with the 1935-39 Detroit Lions for the third-longest streak in NFL history. Should they eclipse that total again, only the 2018-21 Ravens (43) and 1974-77 Pittsburgh Steelers (43) will have longer streaks in NFL history.
Defense: One weakness is the Ravens’ propensity for giving up big plays. Baltimore has allowed 24 plays of 20+ yards, second-most this season behind the Jaguars. Now, they’ll face a Commanders offense that has produced the fifth-most 20-yard plays this season (22).
Fantasy: Derrick Henry has been a top-10 running back in the past three weeks and gets the pleasure of facing the NFL’s worst defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs per carry before first contact (2.37).
Betting: Overs are 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five games when installed as a favorite over the key number of three points (average over margin: 10.6 PPG).
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: Since last season, the losing team in six straight Charger games has failed to score more than 12 points (2-4 in those contests).
QB: Justin Herbert is averaging a career-high 0.19 EPA per dropback when blitzed this season (eighth-best in the NFL). The Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the NFL (41.2%).
Offense: The Chargers have gone three-and-out on 51.1% of their drives, the highest rate in the league. It’s also the highest rate by any team through four games since the 2018 Bills (Josh Allen’s rookie season).
Defense: The Chargers are allowing a league-low 1.11 points per drive this season – the last time a team sustained a rate like that for an entire season was the 019 Patriots (1.02 points per drive).
Fantasy: The passing game doesn’t get much attention, but Ladd McConkey (Week 1 and 4) or Quentin Johnston (Week 2) have produced top-20 numbers in three of four games this season.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in six of Los Angeles’ past seven games on extended rest (Week 5: bye).
Denver Broncos
Team: Since Week 10 of last season, the Broncos have had two consecutive regular-season win streaks of at least three games, something neither team that played in the Super Bowl last season can claim.
QB: Bo Nix is 13-of-46 for 319 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions when throwing the ball more than 10 yards down the field (his 28.8 Passer Rating on such passes is easily the lowest of the 32 qualified signal callers through five weeks).
Offense: The Broncos averaged a season-high 7.7 yards after the catch in Week 5 vs the Raiders. From Weeks 1-4, Denver averaged the fourth-fewest YAC (4.0). The Chargers allow the eighth-lowest average YAC (5.0).
Defense: Denver has allowed opponents to score on just 25.4% of drives, the third-lowest rate in the league and far better than its 40% rate a season ago.
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton has more targets than any two of his teammates combined this season, and yet, he doesn’t have a weekly finish better than WR29 this season (three finishes outside of the top 50).
Betting: From 2019-23, the Chargers played four times in Week 6. They failed to cover all four contests, and all four went under the total.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: Through five weeks, the Steelers are a top-6 team in both time of possession and turnover differential (+4).
QB: Justin Fields is the only QB to score a 90-plus Passer Rating in all five weeks this season.
Offense: Since 2002, the Steelers have failed to score 95 points through five games just five times … 2013, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 (92 points).
Defense: The Steelers have allowed just 73 points, their fewest through five games since allowing 60 in 2010 (they won the AFC that season).
Fantasy: Over the past two weeks, against a vulnerable Colts defense and an injured version of the Cowboys, Najee Harris (27 carries) doesn’t have a rush gaining more than six yards.
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in nine of Pittsburgh’s past 12 road games (they are 8-4 ATS in those contests).
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: That’s eight straight games in which the Raiders have alternated win/loss (they lost 34-18 in Denver last week).
QB: Gardner Minshew doesn’t have a game in the calendar year of 2024 in which he’s thrown more touchdown passes than interceptions.
Offense: The Raiders have allowed a sack on a league-high 10.7% of non-blitzed dropbacks this season.
Defense: By EPA, the Raiders have the fifth-worst rush defense in the league (PIT is sixth best in that regard).
Fantasy: Jakobi Meyers has produced 9.6% over PPR fantasy expectation on passes thrown by Aidan O’Connell in his career (with Gardner Minshew: -2.8%).
Betting: What happens in Vegas … are home team covers! The Raiders are 10-4-1 ATS in front of their fans over their past 15 home games.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Team: From 2015-2022, the Lions opened one season with at least three wins in their first four games, which they have done in consecutive seasons.
QB: Jared Goff has used play action on an NFL-high 35% of his dropbacks this season. He’s averaging 12.2 yards per attempt with play action, third-best behind Anthony Richardson (13.3) and Brock Purdy (12.9).
Offense: In their last game (Week 4 vs SEA on MNF), Detroit had twice as many touchdowns (six) as third down conversions (three).
Defense: The Lions are averaging a league-high 4.75 defensive penalties per game—no other team averages more than 3.60.
Fantasy: We love that Goff has completed 36-of-41 passes over his past two games, but he’s yet to complete more than 18 passes in a victory this season – if you like Detroit in this game, Goff’s fantasy ceiling might not be as high as you’re hoping.
Betting: The Lions have covered five straight road dome games. The results have been good, but not without a sweat (the last four such games have finished within four points of the spread).
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Dallas’s last two losses have seen a total of 116 points scored, while their past two wins have seen 72 points put on the board.
QB: Regarding Passer Rating, Dak Prescott ranks fifth among qualifiers when pressured this season (97.4) and 25th when kept clean (91.6). On average, QBs have a Passer Rating of 32.2 points higher when not pressured than when they are.
Offense: The Cowboys’ average margin of time of possession this season is -3:43, which is second worst for any team with a winning record through five weeks (Falcons).
Defense: Only the Titans (0%) have a lower fourth-quarter sack rate than Dallas (2.2%) this season.
Fantasy: The highest-paid quarterback in the sport has one finish inside the top 10 at the position this season.
Betting: Dallas is 7-1 ATS since the start of 2021 when playing a regular season game against an opponent that had extended rest before the matchup.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons have failed to score 20 points in all five divisional road games since the beginning of 2022 (1-5 record, with three of those games being decided by a field goal or less).
QB: On Thursday night, Kirk Cousins threw four touchdowns on 58 attempts – in his first four games with the franchise, he threw four touchdown passes on 119 attempts.
Offense: The Falcons opened up Week 5 with an impressive touchdown march(seven plays for 70 yards), snapping a 16-drive TD-less drought
Defense: This season, 48.5% of third downs have been converted against Atlanta, the highest rate against them since the 2018 season (they went 7-9 that season).
Fantasy: Through five games last season, Bijan Robinson had a 71.1% snap share with 67 rush attempts and 71 expected PPR points. Through five weeks this season, he has a 74% snap share with 67 rush attempts and 65 expected PPR points. The silver lining? Just 20.9% of his carries this season have come against a loaded box, less than half the rate this time last season (44.8%).
Betting: Each of Kirk Cousins’ past five starts where he was a road favorite, the total has come in under the projection.
Carolina Panthers
Team: This season, 43.4% of Carolina’s points were scored in 20% of the games (36 at Vegas in Week 3).
QB: Andy Dalton threw for 319 yards and three scores on 37 attempts in his first start of the season (at Raiders). In the two games since, he’s passed for 356 yards and two touchdowns on 68 attempts.
Offense: The Panthers have totaled 27 points over their past three home games – the Falcons scored 29 points over the final three quarters (and overtime) of Week 5.
Defense: The Panthers are allowing 21.0 PPG in the first half alone. That’s the third-highest through five games since 2000, ahead of only the 2018 Buccaneers and 2020 Cowboys.
Fantasy: Chuba Hubbard has three straight top-10 finishes at the position and faces the third most vulnerable defense regarding the percentage of yards gained on the ground this season (44.2%).
Betting: Do you like the Panthers ATS? In their past 10 home covers, under tickets have cashed eight times.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (SNF)
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have scored 140 points but are just 1-4. That’s the most points by a team through five games with no more than one victory since the 2016 Saints (1-4 with 152 points scored).
QB: In his last five road wins, Joe Burrow has thrown for an average of 281.4 yards while completing 76.5% of his passes and 15 touchdown tosses.
Offense: The Bengals have scored 140 points this season – the most points scored by a team through five games last season that ended up missing the playoffs was the Chargers (127).
Ja’Marr Chase passes Jerry Rice for the 5th-most receiving yards by a player through 50 career games.
Unreal start to his career.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/7bG1XstDUO— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Defense: The Bengals have allowed a touchdown on 31.4% of opponent possessions while forcing them to punt just 23.5% of the time (the league average punt rate is 14.5 percentage points higher than the league average touchdown rate).
Fantasy: Ja’Marr Chase has four touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards this season, the first player to post such a total through five games of a season since Marcus Robinson did so for the Bears in 2000.
Betting: Joe Burrow has covered 11 of his past 15 road games during the regular season. The Bengals are also working with the longest active streak of covers in Week 6 (five straight, covering by an average of 5.9 PPG).
New York Giants
Team: Since Week 11 of last season, the Giants have a better record than the Bengals (6-6 compared to 5-8), a better point differential (-8 compared to -13), and the second-best turnover differential in the league (+13).
QB: Daniel Jones has posted a positive EPA per dropback in four straight games. That’s tied for the longest streak of his career (also done during the 2022 season when the Giants made the playoffs).
Offense: The Giants allowed the highest sack rate in the league last season (16.4%). They’ve trimmed that rate to 6.7% through five weeks, ranking them 11th best.
Defense: The Giants have 22 sacks, their second-most through five games since the 1970 merger. The only season they had more was 1985 (26), Bill Belichick’s first season as Giants defensive coordinator.
Fantasy: Daniel Jones is one of five QBs to have scored at least 18 fantasy points in three of the past four weeks (the others: Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Jayden Daniels).
Betting: Each of Daniel Jones’ past four road starts has gone under the total (average points below the projected total: 10.1 PPG).
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (MNF)
Buffalo Bills
Team: Relax, #BillsMafia. The Bills have lost consecutive games in every season of the Josh Allen era.
QB: Josh Allen finished 9-30 passing (30%) last week vs the Texans. That was the lowest completion pct by a player who threw at least 30 passes in a game since 1992 (Stan Gelbaugh for the Seattle Seahawks).
Offense: The Bills are tied with the Packers for the best turnover differential this season (+1.4 per game) – 2017 was the last time Buffalo finished a season, gaining at least 0.5 turnovers per game.
Defense: The Bills have had the fewest defensive penalties per game through five weeks (1.20), tied with the Bears.
Fantasy: Josh Allen has scored at least 20 fantasy points in five of his past six games against the Jets.
Betting: Unders are 8-1 in Josh Allen’s last nine road primetime games (average total margin: -7.3 PPG)
New York Jets
Team: The Jets have a 7-18 (.280) record on MNF over the last 20 seasons, second-worst ahead of only the Dolphins (4-13). They’ve lost five of their last six on MNF, with the only win being last year’s opener over the Bills when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles.
QB: The Jets lead the league in red zone pass rate this season (72.2%, the NFL average trends toward 50%).
Offense: Something has to give on the ground. The Jets rank last with 0.44 yards before contact per rush, and the Bills defense ranks last with 2.65 yards before contact allowed per rush.
Defense: The Jets allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per play last season and currently lead the league (4.3) this season.
Fantasy: Garrett Wilson was targeted 22 times on Sunday vs the Vikings, the most by any player in a game since Antonio Brown in 2015 vs the Raiders. Wilson is one of five players to receive at least 30% of his team’s targets this season but ranks 52nd in the NFL in yards per route (1.41).
Betting: The Jets have covered three of their past four home games in primetime, a run that started in Week 1 last season – an outright win over these Bills despite Aaron Rodgers leaving after four snaps.
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