The final game of Week 5 should be fun, giving us insight into the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints. Standalone games offer us the ability to focus on individual matchups under the brightest lights.
This is what my Monday Night Football betting card looks like at the moment, with further bets to be posted on Twitter if other options present themselves!
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Monday Night Football: Best Bets
Let’s start with a traditional market and work toward the most exotic. I made the argument that the Chiefs are lucky to be perfect through September and I stand by that, but that is looking backward. We are looking forward and in spots like this, the Chiefs have surpassed expectations.
The Chiefs are undefeated, but should they be? 🤔
Using our xWins+ metric, win probabilities project under 2 wins for KC through their first four games in 2024. pic.twitter.com/DZHMMDUkdy
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 4, 2024
The Saints have a turnover in every game this season and Derek Carr-led teams have 11 turnovers over their past nine games as an underdog. The NFL is a game of inches and with the Chiefs winning 23 of their past 27 games when forcing a turnover (4-3 when failing to do so over that stretch), I’m expecting this team to move to 5-0.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-5-2 ATS (61.5%) in his last 15 games as a favorite of more than a field goal (he was just 11-26 ATS, 29.7%, in the 37 such games prior), a box that is checked in this matchup with the Saints limping in off of consecutive losses and Andy Reid historically strong on extended rest.
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
My favorite prop bet for this game is surrounding Rashid Shaheed and his specific matchup with what this Chiefs secondary does/doesn’t do well. His receiving yardage prop deserved more than a mention – it’s featured in The Best Monday Night Football Player Prop in the Board piece.
If you want a variation of that bet, Carr is positioned to be a check-down artist in this spot based on how the Chiefs defend, regardless of how the game script plays out. Since joining the Saints, Carr is completing 28.2% of his passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield in losses, a significant dip from his 48.8% rate in victories.
Pick: Derek Carr longest completion under 35.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)
I like the Chiefs, so let’s assume they win and keep pulling that thread. Over Kansas City’s last eight regular-season victories, Mahomes is averaging 11.4 rushing yards per game (the bail out via the kneel is an option) with 61.5% of his yards on the ground coming when pressured.
Saints Pressure Rate When Blitzing
- 2022: 45.3%
- 2023: 38.8%
- 2024: 37.5%
New Orleans hasn’t shown enough confidence in their defense to bring an extra defender (24.2% blitz rate, 21st in the NFL), putting Mahomes in a position to sit in the pocket as opposed to threatening with his legs.
A potentially overlooked aspect of this prop is the Saints’ inability to defend a quarterback on the move, So far this season, New Orleans ranks below the league average in completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, air yards per throw, and first down rate when the opposing signal caller is out of the pocket – if you believe that Mahomes breaks containment, he still might not need to tuck and run.
Pick: Mahomes under 17.5 rushing yards