In Week 5 on Sunday afternoon, the Las Vegas Raiders will visit the Denver Broncos. The spread currently stands at Broncos -2.5, with a game total of 36.5. The Raiders’ implied points are 17, and the Broncos’ implied points are 19.5.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Raiders skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Gardner Minshew II, QB
Gardner Minshew led the league in completion percentage through two weeks (77.5%), but his efficiency has tailed off since (61.5%), and I’m not sure I see that changing with Davante Adams banged up and/or on the trade block.
Denver is a top-three defense in both blitz and pressure rate, making it an uphill battle for Minshew to finish as a top-15 producer for the first time this season.
Zamir White, RB
Zamir White’s next finish as a top-30 running back will be his first, and this isn’t the greatest matchup to make it happen. He hasn’t caught a pass in consecutive games and is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season.
White was a dead-zone running back this draft season, and he’s fitting that profile as an RB who relies on volume but lacks versatility. This type of running back needs to score touchdowns in bunches, but this offense doesn’t provide that opportunity.
White has been ruled out for Week 5 with a groin injury and his standing as a fantasy asset moving forward is very much in question.
Alexander Mattison, RB
Alexander Mattison has been effective when given the opportunity and that’ll be the case this week with White officially declared out on Friday afternoon.
Simply facts@AlexMattison22 is not one of the 111, but he is one of the 5 pic.twitter.com/48yQwLuwAr
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 29, 2024
Given how little White has shown in the lead role, this is a golden opportunity for Mattison to assume the lead duties moving forward.
Of course, he could fall victim to the same lacks in efficiency that we’ve seen from White, but he’s a volume based RB2 for this week at the very least and we can evaluate moving forward as we get updates on White (and see how Mattison works with an extended role in this underwhelming offense this week).
Davante Adams, WR
A late-week hamstring injury suffered in practice resulted in Davante Adams missing his first game since joining the Raiders ahead of the 2022 season.
Did the injury save you from yourself? Could the doubt it puts in your mind encourage you to be bold this weekend and bench Vegas’ star, even if active?
It’s within the range of outcomes.
Through the first three weeks of this season, Adams’ per-target production (1.66) wasn’t much different than his first two seasons with the silver and black (1.69) — it’s been his ability to earn targets.
On-field target share:
- Weeks 1-3, 2024: 21.4%
- 2022-23: 29.6%
Adams’ aDOT has been slowly declining over the past two years, trending back to his rate with the Packers. Short targets aren’t an issue if you’re playing for an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that ranks among the most efficient and potent in the league. They are, however, less enticing if you’re playing for the 2024 Las Vegas Raiders.
The sheer volume got Adams to the finish line more often than not last season, and yet, Denver had his number. In the two matchups last season, Adams was fed 17 targets, but none of them resulted in a catch gaining more than 18 yards (112 yards in total).
With four teams on a bye and various injuries elsewhere, it’s possible Adams’ role is enough to land him in your starting lineup. But you’re not crazy for looking twice at this future Hall of Famer and wondering about his stock this weekend.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Jakobi Meyers saw 41.7% of the targets last week against the Browns with Adams watching, and while that exact role is going to be difficult to repeat, he certainly could see the 30-35% that Adams routinely did when healthy for this team.
Of course, a high volume of looks like that in an offense with average-to-below-average QB play will come with missed opportunities (Minshew missed him down the left sideline on Sunday in what could have been a chunk play with a reasonable pass). That will be irritating as you watch the games, but I’m happy to deal with that if it means a high volume of looks.
For his career, Meyers averages 15.6 PPR points per game when seeing at least 26.5% of the targets, which feels safe to assume in the short term. Most weeks, Meyers will be pushing for Flex value in my rankings, but with Patrick Surtain II possibly shadowing this week (the Broncos surrender the third-fewest yards per pass, 5.6), I’d rather roll the dice on a receiver like Dontayvion Wicks with Jordan Love back.
Tre Tucker, WR
Tre Tucker was on the field for 85.5% of Vegas’ offensive snaps last week and filled the short route role, earning six targets that totaled just 35 air yards. He threw a nice block on DJ Turner’s touchdown, and little things like that earned him an increased role this season, even before Adams’ injury.
However, Tucker is of more value to the Raiders than fantasy managers.
We’ve seen the third option struggle to get fed in explosive offenses (Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season, players like Xavier Worthy and Tank Dell this season), and I think it’s safe to call this Raiders offense “less than explosive.”
Add Tucker if you’d like to take a short-term flier, but it’s a long shot that he’ll ever flirt with your starting lineup.
Brock Bowers, TE
Even with Adams and Michael Mayer sidelined last week, Brock Bowers posted his second straight sub-15% on-field target share game after clearing 25% in his first two contests.
This is expected as rookie seasons for elite pass catchers are often about ebb and flow. They are about adjusting to adjustments, both from the standout talent and the NFL as a whole.
Bowers wasn’t far from turning an ugly stat line into a productive one last week. He let a chunk play slip through his hands, but if he had made it, I guess that you’re not asking any questions.
You still shouldn’t be.
This is a high-pedigree option in an offense that is willing to explore what he can do at all three levels. With Surtain circling Vegas’ receivers this week, don’t be surprised if Bowers looks like he did in his first two games and posts a top-five finish at the position.