The Cincinnati Bengals will host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in Week 5. The spread currently stands at Ravens -2.5, with a game total of 51. The Ravens’ implied points are 26.8, and the Bengals’ implied points are 24.3.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bengals skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Joe Burrow, QB
Over the past three weeks, Burrow has thrown multiple touchdown passes, recorded a triple-digit passer rating, and led his Bengals to at least 25 points in all three games. The stinker to open the season against the Patriots (164 passing yards with no touchdowns) is a distant memory at this point, as Joe Cool seems to have found his rhythm, potentially saving Cincinnati’s season in the process.
This matchup, however, is a little different than the cupcakes he has faced in each of the past two weeks (Commanders and Panthers), two matchups that allowed him to earn an A- and B by our tough QB+ grading scale. The Ravens own the ninth-highest non-blitz sack rate this season, positioning them to put Burrow in a tough spot given that his quick-throw rate is pacing for the lowest of his career.
This Cincinnati offense can be dangerous, but the down-the-field routes often take time to develop, and that’s not a luxury I’m projecting Burrow to have on Sunday. He has failed to hit 15.4 fantasy points in each of his past three regular season games against Baltimore, averaging a borderline pathetic 5.4 yards per pass attempt across those contests.
Sandwiched between two early season matchups with the Ravens are games against the Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders – you’re going to get plenty of usage out of Burrow in the coming month, but I’d sit him down this week if you have the opportunity to play a Baker Mayfield or maybe even a Geno Smith instead.
Zack Moss, RB
Moss was pretty clearly the lead back in Cincy through three weeks, but Week 4 was enough to cast doubt in my mind and drop him outside of my top 20 at the position despite him posting top-20 numbers three times this season (he bailed you out with a one-yard touchdown reception last week).
We saw Joe Mixon earn five targets in both games as a member of this offense against the Ravens last season, and that might well be the path for Moss to provide value for you this week (nine catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks with a 12+ yard reception in all four games).
Moss has out-carried Chase Brown 12-4 in the red zone this season, giving him access to the high-leverage touches that we chase.
Chase Brown, RB
Brown started the second half last week and racked up 37 scrimmage yards on the first drive, one that he capped with a touchdown. We are still looking at small samples, but Brown has been better than Moss this season both before and after contact, putting him in a position to earn more work with time.
I’m not comfortable in Flexing Brown just yet, but he is a strong stash.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
The struggles of this defense (26+ points allowed in three straight games) aren’t great for the city of Cincinnati, but it has resulted in Burrow ranking behind only Geno Smith in completions this season (77); if that continues, Chase is poised for a strong season.
Chase scored from 63 yards out last week on his first catch of the game, and it was a thing of beauty that saw him break three tackles after streaking across the middle of the field. Was it more of a bad Panthers thing than a positive Chase one? Maybe, but he and Burrow connected on a deep timing route, and that is what we like to see.
I mentioned Burrow’s struggles in recent meetings with the Ravens and him being 4-of-17 when throwing deep (23.5%), two factors that limit the upside case of his WR1, but if you fall in line with me and believe this is going to be a passing script for the home team, Chase is set to produce top-10 numbers at the position.
Tee Higgins, WR
Higgins earned 10 targets last week in the win over the Panthers but was only able to muster 12 PPR fantasy points, an underwhelming performance given the volume (WR37 for the week).
The involvement was strong from the jump (he was responsible for five of Burrow’s first seven completions), and that’s enough to qualify for my top 30. However, the fact that he tailed off in such a good matchup is certainly concerning. We are only two games into his season, but checking in 37.1% below point expectation while this passing game is clicking is something I’m certainly keeping an eye on.
If you want to see a player who has been hit or miss in recent matchups, this is your guy. In his last three healthy games against the Ravens:
- Week 2, 2023: 36 routes, eight catches, 89 yards, two TDs
- Week 18, 2022: 43 routes, one catch, seven yards
- Week 16, 2021: 44 routes, 12 catches, 149 yards, two TDs
If you’re going to plug in Higgins ahead of players with similar upside cases like Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. IND) or Xavier Worthy (vs. NO), you have to do so with eyes wide open when it comes to the full profile. I’m playing him where I have him and feel that my starting lineup offers a high floor.
Andrei Iosivas, WR
The artist known as “Yoshi” was able to hold value early in the season due to a role left vacant by Higgins and the ability to earn looks in scoring positions. With Burrow playing well, a third receiver could hold value in this offense, but I’m not sold on this offense being designed to support an option playing alongside Chase and Higgins.
In Week 4, Iosivas was on the field for a season-low 74.2% of snaps and earned just a single target on 25 routes (Weeks 1-3: one target for every six routes). With bye weeks now upon us, you can safely move on from the pride of Princeton, earmarking him as a potential add should an injury occur ahead of him on this depth chart.
Mike Gesicki, TE
If you don’t play in a full-PPR league, you outscored Gesicki last week by sitting on your couch (his only target resulted in a nine-yard loss). As hard as that performance was to swallow (and it was; trust me, I have a few shares), don’t let it blind you to the fact that Gesicki was a top-12 producer at the position in each of the two weeks before.
Don’t get me wrong, this profile is thin. There were two alpha receivers well ahead of Gesicki in the target hierarchy of Cincinnati’s offense, not to mention a pair of backs and a developing Iosivas. That said, we’re looking at a player who is almost never used for blocking and plays in an offense that we trust.
That’s enough. Heck, that’s plenty at the TE position.
Geiscki lives in the TE12-15 range for me, which is where he lands, even in a spot where Cincinnati’s offensive expectations are lower than normal.