The Indianapolis Colts will travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in Week 5. The spread currently stands at Jaguars -2.5, with a game total of 46. The Colts’ implied points are 21.8, and the Jaguars’ implied points are 24.3.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
Sunday Update: Richardson is out. Joe Flacco will start.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Richardson’s rookie season was derailed by a pair of injuries, and on Sunday, we saw more of the same. Richardson left the game early due to an injury, came back to run a red-zone RPO, and was promptly banged up again, an injury that ended his afternoon.
Two of Richardson’s three completions went to Michael Pittman Jr., and that was encouraging for a player who we need to see develop as a passer (involving your top target is a good place to start). Still, questions will continue to swirl about how Richardson is used.
Only time will tell on that front, but this is a rough start to a career for a player who we thought had LeBron James potential for staying healthy, by way of an overwhelming frame. Richardson will remain on fantasy radars for as long as he is healthy, but the range of outcomes is not for the weak of heart.
Joe Flacco, QB
As of now, Richardson’s Week 5 status is unknown. There is general optimism surrounding him, and that is how I have it ranked, but adding Flacco for free now isn’t a bad idea – he’d rank higher than Richardson in this matchup.
Flacco has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his past six appearances, a stretch in which his offense picked up 7.8 yards per pass. Well, that happens to mesh well against a Jaguars defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt this season (8.0).
I like this matchup more for Flacco because of how Jacksonville defends – the Jags’ 17.5% blitz rank is the second lowest in the league through four weeks (league average: 25.9%). I like Richardson’s athleticism when he is pushed to extend plays and his receivers can work open off-script, but I prefer Flacco’s IQ in spots like this where he figures to be sitting unencumbered in the pocket.
I’d elevate Flacco to QB13 this week if we get news that he will get the nod, ranking in the same tier as Joe Burrow (vs. Ravens) and Geno Smith (vs. Giants).
Trey Sermon, RB
Last season, Jonathan Taylor’s best game in terms of catches, targets, and receiving yards came against the Jaguars. He’s one of the very best in the game, and I like him as a top-10 running back this week, regardless of who starts at quarterback.
He has both a 20-yard rush and at least 20 receiving yards in each of the past three weeks – a role that is now in the hands of Trey Sermon, with Taylor officially being ruled out on Friday.
I asked #Colts RB Trey Sermon how prepared he is to potentially start Sunday, and before he could answer, Tyler Goodson chimed in:
“TELL THEM BOYS, TREY, WE READY!” 😂
Sermon: “I’m very prepared. Like Tyler said, we ready. We’re here for a reason. … We believe in ourselves …” pic.twitter.com/6fq4WLGnzw
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) October 4, 2024
The 25-year-old reserve only has 10 touches on his 2024 regular (31 yards and a touchdown), but should be penciled in for 15-ish this week as the clear go-to back in a game that figures to be competitive.
We saw Sermon pick up 88 yards and 17 carries against the Steelers when pressed into an extended role late last season and somewhere in the range of 8-10 PPR points is a logical projection in this spot.
That slots him outside of my top-20 at the position, but given the carnage at the position, he’s a viable option that will get opportunities for managers searching for Flex help this weekend.
Tyler Goodson, RB
Talk out of Indy is that Goodson will see work as part of a committee in an effort to patchwork together the Taylor role. The Iowa product has yet to be handed the ball this season (13 career carries for 87 yards), but he was productive during his collegiate career and showed reasonable levels of versatility for the system the Hawkeyes ran.
He’s not a must add, but with Taylor at risk of missing significant time, Goodson is the type of player worth stashing if you have the space. The Colts don’t have their bye until Week 14 and with a favorable run of games in the short-term (Titans-Dolphins in Weeks 6-7), it’s very possible that this team takes a cautious approach with their All-Pro RB.
Goodson is a high-risk flex this week without much clarity on his role, but there is certainly the potential for his ranking to improve (my RB40 this week) by this time next week.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
On the Colts’ first play from scrimmage last week, Richardson found Pittman for a 32-yard gain, a sight for sore eyes (Weeks 1-3: 29.3 receiving yards per game).
The duo hooked up for a 28-yard gain on the next series, and those of us who were hyping up Pittman this preseason were grinning from ear to ear. The two plays were nice to see, but with Richardson leaving shortly thereafter, we still don’t really have much evidence that his style can mesh with Pittman’s consistently.
With Flacco inserted into the lineup, Pittman was winning short-range targets on his way to his ninth career 100-yard effort. I do not doubt that Indy’s WR1 can succeed with a veteran under center (in Flacco’s last six appearances: 60% of his TD passes have come less than 10 yards downfield and one-third come less than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage), but this team clearly wants to get a grasp for what Richardson brings to the table.
Regardless of who starts at QB this week, I’m willing to bite on what we saw last week and plug in Pittman as my WR2. The Jags are allowing a league-high 6.3 yards per catch after receptions to receivers this season (no other defense is north of 5.5), a matchup I’ll gamble on as opposed to praying on backup quarterbacks figuring out how to get the ball to Tyreek Hill.
Josh Downs, WR
Downs caught a touchdown pass from Flacco last week while leading the team in both catches (eight) and targets (nine) in the upset win over the Steelers. He was in the slot for 82.5% of his naps and had no trouble winning on those timing routes against one of the best defenses in the sport.
It was good to see Downs flex this muscle, but does it matter? If Richardson is under center, sustaining a single short-yardage target was a struggle, making Downs a roster afterthought. That said, we now have proof of concept for a Flacco-led unit.
I’m stashing Downs if I have the roster space in PPR leagues and treating him as something of a handcuff where an injury is needed for him to truly be of any interest whatsoever.
Alec Pierce, WR
Pierce is a complicated player with an ultra-simple outlook this week. If Richardson is active, you consider Flexing him. If not, you don’t.
Opponents have completed 15 of 25 attempts for 437 yards and three touchdowns (zero interceptions) when throwing deep against the Jaguars this season. If there was ever a matchup made for Pierce, this is it, but the math changes if the man responsible for getting him the ball does.
Quick-throw rates, 2024:
- Flacco: 61.5% (19th of 36 qualifiers)
- Richardson: 42.9% (36th of 36 qualifiers)
Those numbers shouldn’t be the least bit surprising. Richardson is an athlete who can throw the ball to the moon while Flacco is a veteran who survives on savvy and timing.
If Richardson clears all hurdles, Pierce will push just ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and into my top 30 at the position. If that’s not the case, he’ll be fighting to stay inside of my top 50. Stay tuned – Pierce already has two top-20 finishes and two of WR60 or worse on his 2024 résumé.