A pair of backup running backs could very well see more time on the field in Week 5. For Indianapolis Colts RB Trey Sermon, he’ll see extra time because of an injury to starter Jonathan Taylor. But for the Cincinnati Bengals’ Chase Brown, his performance may get him more opportunities.
So for fantasy football managers, which back should be the right pick for lineups in Week 5? Here’s a look at the fantasy outlook for each running back.
Should You Start Trey Sermon or Chase Brown This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings say that Sermon is the player to start. His projected 11.5 points include 76 rushing yards, two receptions, and 11 receiving yards. That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Brown (11.1 points, 49 rushing yards, two receptions, and 24 receiving yards).
My ranking of these two running backs aligns with the consensus. Although Brown continues to improve each week, he’s still sharing time with Zack Moss. Sermon, however, will likely be in the role typically designed for Taylor, which probably means more touches than what Brown will receive this week.
Sermon’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
Sermon’s production this season has been far from elite. He has just nine carries on the season and is averaging less than three yards per carry (2.7). In addition, he has been targeted just once out of the backfield on the year.
Perhaps the biggest reason for fantasy managers to consider Sermon is the Colts’ injury situation. Sermon is expected to be in the starting lineup because of Taylor’s ankle injury that occurred late in the Colts’ Week 4 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. As a result of the injury, Taylor has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Along with Taylor’s absence, Indianapolis is also dealing with injury problems at the quarterback position. Starter Anthony Richardson (oblique) is questionable, which could result in Joe Flacco being in his place for Week 5.
This all means that Sermon, who had a touchdown back in Week 3, should be able to top his total carries for the season (nine) on Sunday. And the fact that he averages over four yards per carry for his career (4.3) should allow fantasy managers to be optimistic about his production for Week 5.
Brown’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
Brown is an enticing option for fantasy managers because he continues to be more productive each week. He went from 11 rushing yards in Week 1, to 31, to 62, and to a career-high 80 last week vs. the Carolina Panthers.
In fact, each of Brown’s last two games has been the two highest rushing games of his career. The key to his production last week, from a fantasy standpoint, came from the touchdowns. Brown, who had one TD over his first 15 career games, had two last Sunday.
Chase Brown excited for the future of the Bengals run game and getting a drink dumped on him. pic.twitter.com/pGc3aSoUHU
— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) September 30, 2024
Nevertheless, while Brown is certainly riding a wave of successful production, and there is the possibility he could take over the leading role in the Bengals’ backfield, he’s still sharing time with Zack Moss.
For this week, I’m interested to see how getting starters’ minutes and touches will work for Sermon.