The first significant domino of NFL trade deadline season fell.
After losing to the Buffalo Bills, the New York Jets have agreed to acquire wide receiver Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders. The trade will end the drama surrounding the three-time All-Pro’s status on the trade block and reunite Adams with Aaron Rodgers, his longtime teammate with the Green Bay Packers.
Adams, who was involved in another mega-trade that sent him from Green Bay to the Raiders in 2022, is among the most high-profile NFL players to be moved via an in-season trade in recent memory.
What does Adams bring to the table for Rodgers and the Jets? What’s left behind in Las Vegas? Let’s break down every aspect of today’s Adams trade.
Jets Trade For Raiders WR Davante Adams
Adams formally requested a trade from the Raiders at the beginning of October, and Las Vegas immediately seemed willing to move the 31-year-old before the NFL’s Nov. 5 trade deadline.
While the Bills, Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, and Pittsburgh Steelers were all linked to Adams, the Jets got a deal done.
Here are the full details of today’s trade via NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport:
- Jets acquire: WR Davante Adams
- Raiders acquire: Conditional 2025 third-round pick
- Pick can be upgraded to a second-round pick based on Adams’ performance.
In order for the third-round choice to be upgraded to a second, Adams must finish the season as either a first- or second-team All-Pro and be on New York’s active roster for either the AFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl.
The Jets had already tried other moves to shake up the state of their roster. Owner Woody Johnson fired head coach Robert Saleh after New York’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5 dropped Gang Green to 2-3.
Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich made his own changes this week, demoting offensive coordinator and Rodgers confidant Nathaniel Hackett while installing passing game coordinator Todd Downing as the Jets’ new play-caller.
After falling to 2-4 after Monday night’s loss to Buffalo, New York decided to go all-in and acquire Rodgers’ favorite pass catcher.
Who stops the Jets' new offense? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/tWXt1FTbT9
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2024
Rodgers and Adams were electric during their time with the Packers, connecting for 622 receptions, 7,590 receiving yards, and 69 touchdowns. While Adams is no longer the same player he was during his heyday with Rodgers in Green Bay, he’ll still be a welcomed addition to the Jets’ passing offense, which ranks 20th in EPA per dropback through six weeks.
For the Raiders, this certainly wasn’t the ending owner Mark Davis had in mind when he approved then-head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler to trade first- and second-round picks for Adams in 2022.
Adams thrived in his first season in black and silver. Reunited with Derek Carr, his college quarterback at Fresno State, Adams earned his third consecutive Pro Bowl nod after posting 100 catches for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns.
However, the Raiders benched Carr near the end of the 2022 campaign and released him during the 2023 offseason. Adams put up 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns last year — a down season by his standards — and was repeatedly frustrated by Carr’s replacement under center, free agent addition Jimmy Garoppolo.
Adams pushed for the Raiders to hire 2023 interim head coach Antonio Pierce on a full-time basis, which Davis eventually did. However, Adams and Pierce’s relationship appeared to sour at some point this year.
In late September, Pierce’s verified Instagram account liked a post suggesting that Adams had played his last snap for Las Vegas. Later that week, Kay Adams of the “Up & Adams Show” asked Adams about his communication with Pierce.
“I haven’t heard from him. I haven’t talked to him,” Adams said. “… Social media is a beast, so it’s a lot of people out there that saw it and wondering what’s going on and reaching out.”
Adams’ Contract Details
Adams is earning $16.89 million in base salary this season. The Jets are taking on all of his remaining salary, which comes out to roughly $11.26 million.
New York will also pay the rest of Adams’ per-game roster bonuses. Assuming he plays in the rest of the Jets’ games, he’ll earn $330,000 in per-game bonuses to close the season.
All told, New York is on the hook for $11.59 million after acquiring Adams.
Adams is technically under contract through the 2026 campaign under the terms of the five-year, $140 million extension he signed with the Raiders in 2022. However, none of Adams’ earnings are guaranteed beyond this season.
There’s almost no chance the Jets will be willing to pay Adams his scheduled $35.7 million and $36.6 million base salaries in 2025 and 2026. Instead, he’ll likely rework his deal to stick with the New York heading into next year, or Gang Green will cut him next offseason.
Fantasy Winners and Losers From the Adams Trade
This move felt close to inevitable and is now official. We will get news on where Adams’ recovery from his hamstring injury sits, but it stands to reason that the Raiders were cautious with their star not to put him in harm’s way and lessen their return in a deal.
So, let’s assume Adams is good to go from a health perspective. Now what?
Adams was considered a top-15 receiver entering the season as the focal point of a questionable offense. Now, he’s the focal point of a dubious offense with some upside.
Adams’ history with Rodgers is impossible to ignore. Considering that Adams opened the season with production rates of +14.5% and +14.8% over expectation (despite iffy QB play in Las Vegas), it’s safe to say that there is plenty of gas left in the tank.
Rodgers has struggled with the deep ball recently. Remove last night’s Hail Mary, and he’s 9 of 31 with no scores and three picks during this three-game skid when throwing the ball 15+ yards down the field.
But with the non-verbal communication portion of his timing-oriented game now set, logic would state that a bounce back will be expected in relatively short order.
The Jets are on short rest this week and face an elite defense in Pittsburgh. After that, the schedule runs out nicely for Rodgers to push as a fantasy starter, with Adams safely inside the top 10 at the position in all formats, assuming health:
- Week 8: at New England Patriots
- Week 9: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 10: at Arizona Cardinals
- Week 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts
New York then goes on bye, and the schedule gets even more friendly to close out the fantasy season (Seahawks-Dolphins-Jaguars-Rams-Bills). This move might put the Jets into the playoffs and certainly could vault your fantasy team up the standings if you were holding tight on either former Packer.
As for the surrounding pieces …
Garrett Wilson is the significant loser of this deal. He’ll remain fantasy viable, but his path to stardom has been put on hold while the Jets try to salvage this win-now window.
SPOILER: it's a @GarrettWilson_V touchdown!!!#BUFvsNYJ on ESPN pic.twitter.com/jjvYKJ7X8Q
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 15, 2024
Wilson’s average depth of target (aDOT) this season is down 26.7% from last season, seemingly because he and Rodgers couldn’t connect the way the future Hall of Famer could with Adams in the past. Re-inserting the star receiver into the mix only solidifies the more conservative route tree while capping his number of looks in what should still be a slow offense.
Wilson ranks second in the NFL behind Chris Godwin with 41 targets, while his 30.3% target share trails only Justin Jefferson. The former first-round pick probably won’t keep getting looks at that rate now that Adams is in town.
As for the juice you’ve squeezed out of Allen Lazard up to this point, those days are likely gone.
Though Rodgers has occasionally supported a third pass catcher, even in his prime, it’s been more at the tight end position than anything. Richard Rodgers scored eight times in 2015, and who can forget Robert Tonyan’s 11 TDs in 2020?
Randall Cobb was able to scratch across limited PPR appeal, but Lazard’s profile was thin to begin with, and it only seems like a matter of time until you decide to move on. He’s been able to thrive thanks to clearing 100 air yards and seeing multiple end-zone looks in each of the past two weeks. I’m not sure he has two such games for the rest of the season, and that will land him outside of my top 45 receivers consistently moving forward.
Left in Adams’ wake in Las Vegas is a limited offense that can’t move the ball regularly.
After playing in 11 personnel (three WRs) on 74.2% of their snaps in Weeks 1-3 (NFL average: 61.7%), Las Vegas dropped to 55% without Adams in Weeks 4-6. Only 11 other teams played fewer three-WR sets during that span.
Instead, the Raiders leaned into two-TE looks, deploying 12 personnel at the NFL’s fifth-highest rate in Weeks 4-6 (33.9%). They did that even without 2023 second-round tight end Michael Mayer, who was sidelined by a personal issue.
Brock Bowers proved last week that he is talented enough to win no matter the coverage schemes, locking in his status as a top-six player at the position moving forward. Outside of him, there’s no one on Vegas’ roster to be excited about.
A currently banged-up Jakobi Meyers is now their WR1 and should be rostered, but he’s more depth than a player you plan on using weekly. The Raiders have been and will continue to be an offense you can stream defenses against confidently, making the Falcons’ defense an interesting add once we hit December (Weeks 13-16: Chargers, Vikings, Raiders, and Giants).