The Dallas Cowboys defeated the New York Giants last Thursday, but it cost them more than they could have ever imagined.
Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Brandin Cooks are all expected to miss their Sunday night matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. This comes at a time when the Philadelphia Eagles are tied with them at 2-2, and the Washington Commanders have the NFC East Division lead at 3-1.
The Steelers lost their undefeated record at the hands of a familiar foe in Joe Flacco, as he came in for an injured Anthony Richardson to lead the Indianapolis Colts to victory.
Pittsburgh will start Justin Fields for the fifth straight game, but head coach Mike Tomlin has made no promises about whether he will remain the starter when Russell Wilson is ready to go.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Steelers -2.5 - Moneyline
Steelers (-142); Cowboys (+120) - Over/Under
44 - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
Cowboys vs. Steelers Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Cowboys are the No. 1 team in the league at generating pressure since drafting Parsons in 2021. In that time, Parsons and Lawrence have accounted for 37.9% of those pressures.
It will be a tall task for the Cowboys to try to replace this kind of production. This is a relieving turn of events considering the Steelers have lost both Troy Fautanu and James Daniels for the remainder of the season.
Sadly, this is the play that James Daniels tore his Achilles on #Steelers #NFL 🙏 pic.twitter.com/y4HFSc0B0R
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) September 30, 2024
The Steelers allowed 18 pressures and were sacked four times against the Colts last Sunday. This season, their offensive line has allowed the 13th most pressures generated per dropback; that’s not terrible considering their injuries and Pittsburgh’s eighth-longest average pass time in the league.
If you consider just quick pressures (time to throw under 2.5 seconds), the Steelers have given up the seventh-least amount of pressures.
The Steelers are also ranked sixth in the league in EPA (expected points added) when pressured. The Cowboys’ run defense is ranked 28th in the league in EPA, 26th in success rate (stopping the run consistently), and 27th in runs of 10 or more yards given up. That should balance out a Steelers ground attack that has been abysmal this year, one that ranks 31st in the NFL in rush EPA.
The Steelers’ defense ranks second in rush EPA and 13th in pass EPA, showing that it stops both at a solid level. This lines up well with the Cowboys’ offensive strengths, which rank 12th in rush EPA and 23rd in pass EPA.
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Oddly, you cannot chalk up the Cowboys’ offensive woes to struggling under pressure; Dallas is the fourth-best team this year when pressured. The team’s main issue has been penalties, as it ranks third in EPA lost due to penalties.
(A quick side note: I choose EPA because it measures the impact of each play on a team’s chances of scoring while accounting for down, distance, field position, and game situation. Unlike raw yardage, EPA adjusts for how valuable those yards are based on when and where they occur in a game. Think of EPA as if it is yards with context.)
Vegas already favors the Steelers by 2.5 points, which means oddsmakers are already baking in the adjustments from injuries to the Cowboys’ defensive line. The Steelers are in the same boat as the New York Giants last week, where they don’t have the play style or skill set to take advantage of key weaknesses in the Cowboys’ run game.
The big difference is that the Steelers’ pass game and defense are much, much tougher than the Giants’.
Pick: Cowboys alternate spread +3 (-122)
Give yourself the extra half-point in a game-winning field goal situation.
Alternate Pick: CeeDee Lamb 90+ receiving yards (+145)
CeeDee Lamb is averaging 79 receiving yards per game, posting 90 or more against both the Giants and New Orleans Saints’ secondaries. DraftKings is giving 90 or more yards at +145 in odds, which equates to a 42.55% implied probability.
