Soppe’s Week 5 NFL Picks and Predictions: Cowboys in Trouble While Packers and 49ers Are Well Positioned

As we begin the month of October, the weekly NFL picks become a different exercise. Early on, there’s a bunch of guesswork and attempts to project the unknown. Now, we are approaching the information evaluation portion of the season as we look to make the most of the data points provided to us and beat the books.

You up for it?

Within each game, you get our staff picks and my official Week 5 play for the game. Make it through the entire article, and you’ll get my best ATS/total pick for each game!

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Pro Football Network’s Week 5 Predictions

All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.

Moneyline Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

• David Bearman: Buccaneers
• Adam Beasley: Buccaneers
• Dallas Robinson: Falcons
• Kyle Soppe: Falcons

The Falcons are 2-2 this season, with both losses coming against defenses that rank in the top quarter of the league in rush EPA (expected points added) and two wins against defenses checking in below average in that metric.

There’s a little bit of chicken-and-egg to that note through four weeks, but with the Buccaneers ranking as the worst run defense in the league through September, they are vulnerable to a special talent like Bijan Robinson.

Assuming the star RB clears the minor health issues leading into this game, the Falcons are in a great spot to further an interesting trend — favorites have covered 17 of the past 25 divisional games played on short rest.

Pick: Falcons -1.5

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (London)

• Bearman: Vikings
• Beasley: Vikings
• Robinson: Vikings
• Soppe: Jets

Per the Week 5 Stats and Insights Packet, seven straight Sunday morning London games have gone under the total. The last two games (Colts/Patriots and Dolphins/Chiefs) in this window saw a total of 51 points scored — the cumulative projected total for those games was 94 points.

Both of these teams operate at a below-average pace on the offensive end and rank top 12 in third-down defense. Worrying about the quality and quantity of drives in this game is plenty fair, not to mention everything else that comes with playing abroad.

Pick: Under 40

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

• Bearman: Bears
• Beasley: Bears
• Robinson: Bears
• Soppe: Bears

Jayden Daniels stole the show in September, but I thought Caleb Williams made less flashy gains that can be leveraged in the betting markets since the public isn’t sprinting to the window to back the Bears.

Since 2021, rookie quarterbacks are 28-15 against the spread (65.1%) when favored; not bad when you consider they are 46-51-3 ATS (47.4%) over that stretch when labeled as an underdog.

Andy Dalton is exciting, but Chicago’s defense is the best unit in this game, and it’s not all that close.

Pick: Bears -3.5

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

• Bearman: Ravens
• Beasley: Bengals
• Robinson: Ravens
• Soppe: Ravens

An intense AFC North game could easily be the best game of the week and have serious playoff ramifications. The Ravens are coming off of an impressive beatdown of the Bills on national television, while the Bengals’ offense has been trending up for a few weeks now, giving this team the ability to recover from their slow start.

Since 2022, unders are 28-11-1 (71.8%) when the projected total reaches 50 points. It’s easy to look at these rosters and assume that points are going to be put up in bunches, but with the Ravens playing at the ninth-slowest pace and both defenses ranking in the bottom seven in blitz rate, be careful.

Without these defenses taking significant risks, a physical fight could break out this week. Those games struggle to get to 45 points, let alone 51.

Pick: Under 50.5

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

• Bearman: Patriots
• Beasley: Dolphins
• Robinson: Patriots
• Soppe: Dolphins

Offensive expectations are as low for this game as any we’ve seen this season, and I’m not sure there’s much that either team can do about it.

New England is led by a running back who has fumbled in every game this season, while Miami failed to throw for 100 yards on Monday night despite all of their pass catchers being at full strength.

Since 2020, unders are 26-8-1 (76.5%) when the closing total is under 37 points. Sportsbooks take a lot of public money on overs, which prevents them from lining these ugly games as low as they should.

Pick: Under 35.5

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders

• Bearman: Commanders
• Beasley: Commanders
• Robinson: Commanders
• Soppe: Browns

The Commanders were one of the lowest power-ranked teams entering this season, but Daniels has burst onto the scene and given the franchise something they’ve lacked for a long time: hope.

Jayden Daniels throws a dart to Scary Terry for the TD!

📺: #WASvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/txEwSyl2Se

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

The vibes aren’t quite as strong in Cleveland, where the Browns aren’t confident in a quarterback who is signed to a contract worth nearly a quarter of a billion dollars.

This line could move through a key number, so I’m waiting to lock in my wager. Yet, I’m okay fading what I expect to be a very public Washington team this week.

Deshaun Watson is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in which he’s been given at least three points, and putting points on the board against the Commanders hasn’t exactly been a struggle through four weeks.

The Browns own the 10th-best rush defense and have excelled at creating pressure (38.5% of dropbacks, sixth highest in the NFL).

Washington’s defense doesn’t leave its offense much room for error. If Cleveland can throw the first punch, this could be a come-back-to-earth week for the most fun story coming out of September.

Pick: Browns +3

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bearman: Colts
• Beasley: Colts
• Robinson: Jaguars
• Soppe: Colts

Over tickets have come through in five of Jacksonville’s past six divisional games in which they were favored. All signs point to Anthony Richardson being active for the Colts, and assuming that’s the case, I like this trend to continue.

Richardson and Trevor Lawrence are two of the top three quarterbacks in terms of average depth of throw this season. This is great news for over bettors, as those long passes often result in scoring chances or stop the clock as they hit the turf.

I like one of these teams to reach 30 points. If that occurs, the over is in great shape.

Pick: Over 46.5

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

• Bearman: Bills
• Beasley: Texans
• Robinson: Bills
• Soppe: Texans

This is another game with plenty of offensive firepower and fantasy football assets. That train of thought tracks, but I’d caution against assuming that we get a shootout.

The Bills are among the best perimeter pass defenses in the NFL, which could limit Nico Collins’ impact, and the Texans allow the 10th-fewest red-zone drives, a strength that could limit the superpowers of Josh Allen.

Speaking of Allen, unders are 11-3 (78.6%) in his past 14 games as a road favorite. This will be an exciting game in that I like it to be nip and tuck; I’m just not sure we see touchdowns in bunches.

Pick: Under 47.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

• Bearman: Broncos
• Beasley: Broncos
• Robinson: Broncos
• Soppe: Broncos

Since the start of 2022, home teams are 64-47-6 (57.7%) when the total closes under 40 points (48.3% cover rate when the total settles over 40 points).

The Bo Nix experience is a unique one that can be difficult to watch, but this is the spot where I want to back him. No, not because I trust Nix in a major way, but because this is projected to be a low-scoring game where his good plays have more value than in a game with a high-scoring projection.

The Raiders have an underwhelming running game behind Zamir White and will try to navigate gaining yards through the air without their WR1 while facing one of the very best cover corners in the NFL.

The Broncos have faced two elite defenses (Jets and Steelers) this season. They totaled 46 points in their other two games; if they get close to 23 points, I think we’re cashing this ticket.

Pick: Broncos -2.5

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

• Bearman: 49ers
• Beasley: 49ers
• Robinson: 49ers
• Soppe: 49ers

Generally speaking, laying several points in divisional games feels scary. When teams are familiar with one another, the initial reaction is to assume that the game will be decided in the final 15 minutes. But that’s not likely to be the case here.

Since 2022, the 49ers are the best in-division ATS team (9-3-1, 75%), and the Cardinals are the worst (3-10, 23.1%). Both teams have played to the overs (SF: 9-3-1, AZ: 8-5) in such spots, so if you prefer to play the total over the spread, you have the green light.

We saw signs of this 49ers team finding a groove last week (30 points against the Patriots), and I think there’s a good chance we see more of the same against the fifth-worst EPA defense in the NFL.

Pick: 49ers -7.5

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams

• Bearman: Rams
• Beasley: Packers
• Robinson: Packers
• Soppe: Packers

The Packers are 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since the start of 2015 when facing an NFC West opponent during the regular season with an average cover margin of 3.1 points per game.

Jordan Love returned to the field last week and nearly led a historic fourth-quarter comeback after knocking off the rust.

The Commanders are the only defense that grades out worse than the Rams this season. If we get the Week 4 fourth-quarter version of Love for a half, Green Bay should clear their 25.5 implied point total and cover with ease.

Pick: Packers -3

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

• Bearman: Seahawks
• Beasley: Seahawks
• Robinson: Seahawks
• Soppe: Seahawks

Sometimes you bet players. Other times, you bet teams. And once in a while, you make a spot play.

Underdogs of over five points with a total of under 45 points are 78-62-4 ATS (55.7%) in the last 144 such instances.

The Giants own the sixth-best red-zone defense in the league thus far and get an extended week to prepare for a Seahawks team that was busy chasing the Lions’ up and down the field for 60 minutes on Monday night.

Pick: Giants +6

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Bearman: Cowboys
• Beasley: Cowboys
• Robinson: Steelers
• Soppe: Steelers

This is an interesting game that I’ll be live betting on. Whichever team can establish the tempo of this game early is going to be sitting pretty. The Steelers want to beat you up, while the Cowboys prefer to spread you out and put points on the board.

Dallas is more banged up on the defensive side than they have been for any other game this season, a terrible sign for a unit that is already the third worst in the red zone.

On the flip side, the Steelers are the fourth-best red-zone unit. If the Cowboys can’t get into the end zone with regularity, Justin Fields’ increase in efficiency puts Pittsburgh in a good spot to control this game.

Dak Prescott has failed to cover eight of his past nine games as an underdog (average cover margin: -6.4 points per game), a trend that could easily continue against, for my money, the best defense in the league.

Pick: Steelers -2.5

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

• Bearman: Chiefs
• Beasley: Chiefs
• Robinson: Chiefs
• Soppe: Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is 8-5-2 ATS (61.5%) in his last 15 games as a favorite of more than a field goal (he was just 11-26 ATS, 29.7%, in the 37 such games prior). Kansas City is off to the most uninspiring 4-0 start of recent memory, winning three of four games by at least five points.

I’m comfortable with the Mahomes/Andy Reid duo holding my money on a long work week with the bye week looming.

Pick: Chiefs -5

Soppe’s Week 5 Betting Card

• Falcons -1.5
• Jets/Vikings under 40
• Bears -3.5
• Ravens/Bengals under 50.5
• Dolphins/Patriots under 35.5
• Browns +3
• Colts/Jaguars over 46.5
• Bills/Texans under 47.5
• Broncos -2.5
• 49ers -7.5
• Packers -3
• Giants +6
• Steelers -2.5
• Chiefs -5