Last week, the Atlanta Falcons defeated the New Orleans Saints despite being out-gained 366 to 315, earning more penalties, and failing to score inside the red zone. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, dominated the Philadelphia Eagles while totaling seven drives with over 70 yards and three drives with over a 5% win probability added out of 11 total drives.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Falcons -1.5 - Moneyline
Falcons (-125); Bucs (+105) - Over/Under
43.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Preview and Prediction
Sportfolio Kings has created a metric called EDP (earned drive points) that provides an alternative to your typical EPA (expected points added) metric. The basic premise focuses on capturing the efficacy, durability, and reproducibility of drive-level performance in the NFL. This model helps identify buy-low and sell-high spots for teams because it removes much of the variance involved with actual outcomes in scoring and winning.
Despite not “earning” the win, the Falcons go into this matchup at 2-2. They didn’t earn the win because the Falcons scored after a muffed Saints punt and failed to put together many drives where they showed anything of value.
Muffed punt! Touchdown!
The @AtlantaFalcons recover the loose ball for SIX!
📺: #NOvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/DIgHsXa0vp— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
According to TruMedia, the Buccaneers’ defense has struggled against the run this season, ranking 31st in EPA. In contrast, they rank 14th against the pass, which aligns with how their defense typically functions. Analyzing play by play data, I calculated the top pass-funnel defenses in the NFL, and the Bucs ranked No. 6.
This indicates that, in neutral and positive-game script situations, teams are expected to pass the ball more frequently against the Bucs’ defense than most defenses in the league.
The Falcons’ offense has faced three teams within the top 10, plus the Pittsburgh Steelers who are sixth in forcing teams to run the ball. Breaking down their pass rate over expected by the week, we can see they only had a positive number against the Chiefs in Week 3.
In summary, the Falcons are effective and successful when they run the ball against teams that are attempting to force them to pass and vice versa. Bijan Robinson and the offensive line will be the key to a Falcons victory on offense.
The Bucs’ offense ranks eighth in overall EPA (sixth in passing, 16th in rushing), with Baker Mayfield ranking 13th in EPA per dropback among QBs with over 60 attempts. Mayfield has been pretty consistent, ranking around the top 10-15 quarterbacks when considering several different important splits like performance under pressure, against the blitz, in play-action, against different coverages, etc.
The one knock you can find is that he ranks 24th of 32 qualifiers in EPA on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds. His mobility and play-making might not be what it once was.
Luckily, they face a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in pass EPA and is only slightly above average at holding coverage in terms of forcing the time to throw above 2.5 seconds. They also don’t generate lots of pressure, ranking 24th in the league.
As referenced before, the Falcons need to establish the run if they want a fighter’s chance in this one. They currently rank 16th in rush EPA against boxes with eight or more defenders, something the Bucs have done the fourth most of anyone. I also assume the bad Bucs run defense will only be better as Vita Vea and Antoine Winifield Jr. get healthy and play more.
My pick: Bucs +1.5, Bucs ML (+105)
Alternate picks: Bijan Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards (+115), Kirk Cousins Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)
