We have reached Sunday of Week 4, and there are 13 games for your viewing enjoyment across close to 12 hours of high-octane action. However, knowing which games to bet on is a completely different situation, and that is why our NFL Week 4 picks and predictions are here to help.
Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 4 betting lines and give our best bets for this week’s action around the league.
Week 4 NFL Betting Lines
- Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-8)
Broncos +330; Jets -425
Total: 39.5 - Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Carolina Panthers
Bengals -218; Panthers +180
Total: 47 - Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Vikings +120; Packers -142
Total: 44 - Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Eagles -120; Buccaneers +100
Total: 42 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5)
Jaguars +190; Texans -230
Total: 44.5 - Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Indianapolis Colts
Steelers -130; Colts +110
Total: 40 - New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Saints +124; Falcons -148
Total: 41 - Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3)
Rams +130; Bears -155
Total: 40.5 - New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
Patriots +410; 49ers -550
Total: 41 - Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Commanders +145; Cardinals -175
Total: 49 - Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers
Chiefs -340; Chargers +270
Total: 41.5 - Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Browns -135; Raiders +114
Total: 36.5 - Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Bills +120; Ravens -142
Total: 46.5 - Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Titans +114; Dolphins -135
Total: 37 - Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Seahawks +150; Lions -180
Total: 46.5
NFL Week 4 Top Picks and Predictions
Bearman: Packers -2.5
This game is a chance for both teams to show that they are for real. For me, the Packers are getting it done no matter who is at quarterback, and there’s a really good chance Jordan Love suits up for this one. Due to the uncertainty, we are getting a little bit of a discount on this price, but I might have liked it even with Malik Willis under center.
The Vikings are much better than anyone thought, but they also don’t do very well at Lambeau Field. Justin Jefferson is not involved most of the time, totaling only 99 yards in his three appearances. This will be an exciting division race with these two teams and the Lions, but I have the Packers winning Round 1.
Bearman: Broncos +7.5
This is not a play on how the Broncos did last week in Tampa. I’m still not buying them, but I also don’t believe the Jets are a 7.5-point favorite. Yes, they looked good last Thursday against the Patriots, but New England might be the worst (or second-worst) team in the league.
While I don’t think the Broncos are great, they are coming off their best game of the season, a smashing of the hometown Bucs. And keep in mind, it’s not like the Broncos were no-shows the first two weeks, losing by one score to two teams who are a combined 6-0 in the Steelers and Seahawks. A play here or there, and we may be looking at a 3-0 Broncos team instead of one that’s 1-2.
Until the Tampa game, the Broncos struggled to get much offense before putting up 26 points and 352 yards last week. The key has been the defense, which is third in the NFL in total defense and pass defense. Where did the Jets succeed in wins vs. the Patriots and Titans? Passing.
This will not be an easy one for Aaron Rodgers and company.
The Jets may be 2-1, but the wins were against teams now a combined 1-5 on the season. Are they closer to the team that got blown out by the Niners or the one we saw crush the Patriots last week?
Probably somewhere in between, but that’s not 7.5 points better than Denver.
Bearman: Steelers-Colts Under 40
The Colts and Steelers have both been in multiple of my under plays this season, and as long as their offenses continue to be poor, I will continue to bet on them. Congratulations to the Steelers on being 3-0, but it isn’t the offense that is carrying them.
Pittsburgh is 24th in yards per game, 28th in yards per play, 29th in pass yards per game, and 22nd in scoring — and its offensive EPA is -16.67, which is 20th. The Steelers are 3-0 because of a good defense, one total giveaway, and being second in Time of Possession; all three of those stats play into our under. The Steelers aren’t giving points away, are taking long possessions, and lead the NFL in allowing only 8.3 points per game.
On the Colts side, it’s Jonathan Taylor or bust, as Anthony Richardson has completed less than 50% of his passes with twice as many interceptions (6) than touchdowns (3). Outside of the Week 1 shootout with the Colts and Texans, neither the Colts nor Steelers games have come close to the opening total of 40.
Bearman: Commanders-Cardinals Over 50
So far this season, I have taken six totals in the first three weeks, and all have been unders. I gave out the Steelers/Colts under above, but for the first time this season, I am giving out an over! Simply put, neither one of these teams has a good defense, and they both sport good, young offenses with superstar players in Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jayden Daniels.
.@AZCardinals fans gotta be loving this duo 🤩 @K1 | @MarvHarrisonJr
📺: #DETvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Z5CgXJHaDP— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Taking a look at PFN’s brand new Defense+ metric, the Cardinals rank 31st and Commanders 32nd out of 32 teams. The metric takes into account many things, including yards per play, points per drive, sack percentage, success rate against run/pass, third-down conversions, etc.
The Cardinals are rated a D- with 63.6% red-zone efficiency and rank 23rd in generating pressure without blitzing.
The Commanders are also a D-, being bottom 10 in almost every single metric.
Both teams have cleared 50 total points in two of their three games with the only exceptions being the Cards last week vs. the Lions and Commanders in their field-goal fest where they scored seven times.
Blewis: Chris Godwin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Before last week, the two biggest problems with the Eagles’ defense were its inability to stop the run or to pressure the quarterback. In the Eagles’ Week 3 win over the Saints, they improved in both areas.
One weakness for them that remains, however, is their effectiveness in defending opposing slot receivers. For the season, the Eagles are 31st in EPA per play in defending the slot, only better than the Commanders.
Who is the beneficiary here on the Buccaneers? It’s Chris Godwin.
Chris Godwin's Receiving Rankings Through Week 3:
Receiving Yards from the Slot – 1st (197)
Receiving 1st Downs – 1st (17)
Receiving TD – t-1st (3)
Receptions – t-3rd (21)
Passer Rating When Targeted – 4th (148.4)
Total Receiving Yards – 7th (253) pic.twitter.com/Amp6wrWV9d— Buccaneers Communications (@BuccaneersComms) September 27, 2024
Considering the Buccaneers have one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, and rookie Bucky Irving is banged up, I’m expecting them to rely heavily on their passing attack against the Eagles and exploit Avonte Maddox in the slot against Godwin.
Blewis: Colts +2.5
On the surface, it’s hard to trust Anthony Richardson against this Steelers defense. But today, they’ll be without Alex Highsmith, their second-best pass rusher after T.J. Watt.
Considering they’ll be matching up against a very good Colts offensive line, their pass rush will certainly be at a disadvantage compared to the previous three weeks.
I’m also not buying into the Steelers despite their 3-0 start. They have had a fortunate schedule of opposing quarterbacks so far, and despite Justin Fields’ improvement, they have still been a bottom-10 offense in yards and success rate.
Blewis: Bears -3
The Rams had a very gritty comeback win last week, but I think their depleted offense will struggle on the road against a dominant Bears defense.
Through three weeks, the Bears’ improvement defensively from last season has carried over so far, as they’re a top-10 unit in yards allowed per game, EPA per drive, and success rate.
While it has been far from pretty, Caleb Williams has started to make strides after a very rough NFL debut. His EPA per dropback has increased each week, and he is coming off by far his best performance yet, throwing for 332 passing yards.
Soppe: Saints +3
These are two teams that are hard to feel good about analyzing through three weeks, as both have shown plenty of good and bad. That said, what this coin flip of a division has taught us in the past is that you take the points and be on your way.
Since 2020, when two NFC South teams face off and the spread is less than a field goal, underdogs are 10-2 ATS with unders also going 10-2 in those games. I don’t mind playing the ‘dog moneyline to get a little plus-money on your betting card, but I’m not ruling out a game that gets goofy late and leads to a situation where this game is decided by a single point.
Soppe: Bills-Ravens Over 46.5
What more could you ask for than two of the best quarterbacks in the game in an island spot?
The public wants to bet on fireworks in a spot like this and the trends suggest that they get their wish. Courtesy of our Week 4 Stats and Insights Packet, we know that overs are 8-3 in the past 11 games when Josh Allen is labeled as an underdog. Marry that with the fact that the Ravens put an average of 28.1 points on the board when Lamar Jackson starts in prime-time (their implied total this week: 24.5 points) and we could be in for a fun one.
Soppe: Pat Freiermuth-plus-Alec Pierce Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
What? You didn’t enter this week with this exotic prop on your radar? Shame on you!
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first — Pierce could hit this by himself on a single catch. Do I think that’ll be the case? No, but the Steelers do have the 11th highest opponent aDOT this season and with Anthony Richardson born ready to launch, a single bail out play is within the range of outcomes.
More likely is a few catches from both of them. Pierce averages 16,2 yards per catch, is playing on a fast track, and is a home underdog. I don’t think it’s too much to ask to get him 2-3 catches for in the range of 30-40 yards. That gets us the majority of the way there and I like Freiermuth to remain consistent in his unexciting but consistent role.
The Colts have allowed opponents to complete 81.5% of short passes this season (fourth highest) and with Justin Fields owning the third lowest aDOT, the short passing game could well supplement the ground game. That angle only gets stronger with Jaylen Warren sidelined — gone is the most explosive running back on this roster as well as a threat to soak up those short targets.
I stumbled upon this prop as I was combing through the menu for this game. I had both Pierce and Freiermuth circled as “overs” to explore in the yardage department (Pierce: 25.5, Freiermuth: 29.5) — this combination bet allows me to take more advantage of Pierce’s big play potential.
Katz: Aaron Rodgers Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards
It’s always possible for a receiver to break a tackle for a long gain or there to be blown coverage. That’s a risk any time we take an under. But based on the matchup, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets should continue doing what they’ve been doing — running the ball and dinking and dunking.
Rodgers has just a single completion over 35 yards this season, his 36-yard touchdown strike to Allen Lazard. Otherwise, everything is underneath.
With Pat Surtain locking down Garrett Wilson, I expect Rodgers to once again be throwing short passes to the likes of Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin. Rodgers is averaging just 6.5 air yards per attempt, 28th in the league. By way of comparison, back in 2016, for example, Rodgers averaged 8.8 air yards per attempt. He’s a different QB in his old age, and this is what the Jets need from him. I expect another week of mostly shortly passes, keeping Rodgers under this number.
Katz: Aaron Jones Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones revenge game! Isn’t that enough? Well, in case it isn’t, I’m really not sure why this number is so low. Jones has run for 94, 32, and 102 yards in his three games this season. That 32 came against the 49ers in a game where the Vikings dominated through the air, and also Jones got hurt.
The Packers’ quality run defense numbers are a bit skewed by them completely dominating the Titans last week. Immediately jumping out to positive game script forced the Titans to abandon the run, resulting in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears combining for a whopping eight carries. That is unlikely to happen against the undefeated Vikings in what should be a close, competitive contest.
In Weeks 1 and 2, the Packers faced two of the most talented running backs in the league. What happened? Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor ran for 109 and 103 yards, respectively. Jones should easily get to 60. If you really want to get beansy, you can take Jones 100+ rush yards alt line whenever it drops.