As soon as Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opted out of the 2019 NFL season, Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki became an instant late-round value in 2020 fantasy drafts. Already on my radar as a potential third-year tight end breakout, Gesicki is now in line to see even more volume from the slot during the 2020 season.
Investing an early-round pick on the Travis Kelce and George Kittle’s of the world can give you a huge advantage at the position, but the best values at the tight end position can often be found in the later rounds. In this article, we’ll look at why Gesicki’s fantasy value is just too good to pass up at his current 125.7 FleaFlicker PPR ADP.
Before we look ahead to the 2020 NFL season, we must first look at the process of how we got here. Along with using Consistency Score (CS) to look at Gesicki’s two years in the NFL, we’ll also use Relative Athletic Score (RAS) for a peek at the former Penn State standout’s athletic traits.
Mike Gesicki’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS)
After leaving Penn State as one of the most productive tight end’s in program history, Gesicki turned heads with a sensational 2018 NFL Combine performance. Not a lot of people were questioning Gesicki’s athletic traits, but there was little doubt about it following his showing in Indianapolis.
As you can see, Gesicki earned himself an impressive 9.95 RAS after his sensational Combine. Even though he lacked ideal weight for the position, Gesicki graded out as elite in explosion, speed, and agility. That’s transitioned to the next level, with Miami often using Gesicki in the slot to overcome his smaller frame.
Gesicki’s Consistency Score (CS)
As noted in my Daniel Jones article, Consistency Score doesn’t look at overall points scored but instead looks at how consistent each player is throughout the season. More consistent fantasy-producers are better investments than those that boom or bust from week-to-week.
Despite a slow start to his 2019 season, Gesicki ended the year as TE14 with a 2.36 Consistency Score. Gesicki finished as a TE1 and TE2 on an equal amount (27%) of games in 2019, putting the tight end with a solid floor but lacking the ceiling needed to be a true difference-maker. With Wilson and Hurns opting out, does Gesicki get the volume to catapult into that stratosphere of fantasy value at the tight end position?
Gesicki’s 2019 fantasy season started slow but picked up
After starting slow like the majority of Dolphins players in 2019, Gesicki became much more involved after Preston Williams’ season-ending ACL injury. Gesicki was floundering as TE28 in PPR leagues from Weeks 1-9, but he finished strong with a TE8 finish down the stretch of the season (Weeks 10-17).
Gesicki’s 910 air-yards in 2019 were fourth-highest at the tight-end position, behind only fantasy stalwarts Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Mark Andrews. Gesicki also finished with an impressive 10.2 aDot, which put him at TE4 on the season (min. 50 targets).
Was Gesicki’s 2019 second-half success a sign of things to come, or a mirage after the loss of the impressive Williams? One thing is for sure, the loss of Miami’s slot specialists boosts Gesicki’s fantasy value up a tier from where it was a month ago.
Mike Gesicki’s 2020 fantasy value
When I mention Gesicki taking over in the slot, it’s not me talking out of the side of my mouth or projecting. The Dolphins tight end did his best work there during the 2019 season, and now Miami faces the challenge of replacing two of their best producers inside.
With Wilson and Hurns opting out, Miami loses two players that accounted for 54% of their slot routes during the 2019 season. We also know that Gesicki shines there, as evidenced by his 71.8% slot rate last season.
Just how slot-dependent was Gesicki in 2019? Not only did Gesicki lead his position in slot routes in 2019, but he dominated his competition with 131 more slot routes than any other tight end in the league. It’s a logical conclusion to assume that the increased volume leads to more fantasy value for Gesicki in 2020.
Other late-round tight end options besides Gesicki
If you miss out on Gesicki or aren’t willing to fully invest, there are plenty of other late-round values available in 2020 fantasy drafts. Other value tight ends include Austin Hooper, Dallas Goedert, Jonnu Smith, Blake Jarwin, T.J. Hockenson, and Ian Thomas.
For the second consecutive year, Hooper is a nice value at his current 108.3 FleaFlicker PPR ADP. A lot of analysts point to Hooper’s move from the Atlanta Falcons to the Cleveland Browns as a reason to downgrade him, but they also questioned him last off-season. All he did was follow up on his TE6 performance in 2018 with a repeat of the same finish in 2019.