NFL underdogs continued their dominance against the spread in Week 3, and that carried over in Thursday Night Football when the New York Giants covered as 5.5-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys.
For the season, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 15-2 ATS and 10-5 SU.
With the success of heavy underdogs this season, how should that impact your approach towards making your NFL picks this week? We break it all down for you in our Week 4 NFL predictions.
Breaking Down Latest NFL Week 4 Odds and Game Previews
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 27.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
- Moneyline: Steelers -125, Colts +105
- Total: 40
On the surface, it’s hard to trust Anthony Richardson against this Steelers defense. But on Sunday, they’ll be without Alex Highsmith, their second-best pass rusher after T.J. Watt.
Considering they’ll be matching up against a very good Colts offensive line, their pass rush will certainly be at a disadvantage compared to the previous three weeks.
I’m also not buying into the Steelers despite their 3-0 start. They have had a fortunate schedule of opposing quarterbacks so far, and despite Justin Fields’ improvement, they have still been a bottom-10 offense in yards and success rate.
Prediction: Colts 20, Steelers 18
Pick: Colts ML (+105)
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-8)
- Moneyline: Broncos +350, Jets -455
- Total: 39.5
Bo Nix picked up his first career win last week against a depleted Buccaneers defense. This week, however, he’ll have a much greater test against a very strong Jets defense, similar to the first two matchups of his career against the Seahawks and Steelers.
After a rough Week 1 outing against the 49ers, the Jets’ defense has feasted on bad quarterbacks two weeks in a row in Will Levis and Jacoby Brissett. At this stage of his rookie season, I think Nix still falls into that category.
Although the Broncos scored 26 points and generated 352 yards of offense last week, I think they will fall back down to Earth on Sunday.
Prediction: Jets 21, Broncos 13
Pick: Broncos under 15.5 (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Bengals -205, Panthers +170
- Total: 47
Watch out for the Panthers!
Although it was just one game, so far it has become abundantly clear that Bryce Young was holding back the Panthers’ offense, as they put up 36 points and 437 yards of offense in their win over the Raiders last week.
Although the Panthers will be without Adam Thielen, I still have enough faith in this offense against a very poor Bengals defense that is 30th in EPA per drive allowed.
While the Bengals are 0-3, the problem hasn’t been their offense. After a poor Week 1 outing, Joe Burrow has been playing very well, and the ceiling of this offense increased with Tee Higgins’ return last week.
I’m expecting both teams to put up a lot of points here.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Panthers 24
Pick: Over 47 (-112)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
- Moneyline: Vikings +124, Packers -148
- Total: 44
As of this writing, we don’t know if Jordan Love will be making his return this week.
While Malik Willis has done a fantastic job filling in for Love, going against this Brian Flores-coordinated Vikings defense would be his biggest test yet.
Because of the uncertainty there, I’m going to pass on making a pick on this game, even if the point spread indicates that the oddsmakers expect Love to play.
Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 21
Pick: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +220, Texans -270
- Total: 45.5
Nobody wants to bet on the Jaguars after their embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football last week, meaning you’re getting value here against a Texans team that has looked a bit underwhelming so far.
After entering this season with much higher expectations, the Texans are 2-1 but it hasn’t looked pretty, especially on offense. For the season, they’re just 22nd in EPA per drive and 30th in success rate.
Injuries at running back are certainly a factor, and it looks like they’ll be without Joe Mixon for a second consecutive week.
According to Action Network, teams that lose by 35+ points are 76-47-6 ATS the following week, and when they’re getting four or more points, they’re 50-19-2 ATS.
Let’s roll the dice with the Jaguars.
Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 20
Pick: Jaguars +6.5 (-112)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Moneyline: Eagles -125, Buccaneers +105
- Total: 42.5
There are a lot of injury questions going into this matchup, so I’m going to go with a player prop instead.
Before last week, the two biggest problems with the Eagles’ defense were its inability to stop the run or to pressure the quarterback. In the Eagles’ Week 3 win over the Saints, they improved in both areas.
One weakness for them that remains, however, is their effectiveness in defending opposing slot receivers. For the season, the Eagles are 31st in EPA per play in defending the slot, only better than the Commanders.
Who is the beneficiary here on the Buccaneers? It’s Chris Godwin.
Chris Godwin's Receiving Rankings Through Week 3:
Receiving Yards from the Slot – 1st (197)
Receiving 1st Downs – 1st (17)
Receiving TD – t-1st (3)
Receptions – t-3rd (21)
Passer Rating When Targeted – 4th (148.4)
Total Receiving Yards – 7th (253) pic.twitter.com/Amp6wrWV9d— Buccaneers Communications (@BuccaneersComms) September 27, 2024
Considering the Buccaneers have one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, and rookie Bucky Irving is banged up, I’m expecting them to rely heavily on their passing attack against the Eagles and exploit Avonte Maddox in the slot against Godwin.
Prediction: Eagles 21, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Chris Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Saints +114, Falcons -135
- Total: 42
Did the Eagles figure out the formula for stopping the Saints’ offense?
After looking like the reincarnation of the Greatest Show on Turf, the Saints scored just one touchdown and generated only 219 yards of offense last week. To sum it up, they couldn’t replicate the explosive plays they had in Weeks 1-2 because they were ineffective running the football and Derek Carr struggled under pressure.
Now, they enter this matchup with Cesar Ruiz expected to be out after leaving last week’s game with a knee injury.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have been an average offense so far, ranking 16th in EPA per drive and 20th in yards per game.
This is a divisional matchup where I’ll be fading both offenses.
Prediction: Falcons 21, Saints 17
Pick: Under 42 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3)
- Moneyline: Rams +130, Bears -155
- Total: 40.5
The Rams had a very gritty comeback win last week, but I think their depleted offense will struggle on the road against a dominant Bears defense.
Through three weeks, the Bears’ improvement defensively from last season has carried over so far, as they’re a top-10 unit in yards allowed per game, EPA per drive, and success rate.
While it has been far from pretty, Caleb Williams has started to make strides after a very rough NFL debut. His EPA per dropback has increased each week, and he is coming off by far his best performance yet, throwing for 332 passing yards.
Prediction: Bears 20, Rams 15
Pick: Bears -3 (-105)
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
- Moneyline: Patriots +455, 49ers -625
- Total: 40.5
This is a very difficult game for me to pick because of the 10.5-point spread, the largest so far this season. The 49ers also enter this matchup with a ton of injuries, but their short-handed offense last week still scored 24 points and generated 425 yards.
While they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against a decimated Rams, the 49ers will be facing a Patriots team that reminded us who we thought they were in their 24-3 loss to the Jets on “Thursday Night Football.”
I would take the 49ers if this spread was under 10 points, but it’s just too high for me.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Patriots 14
Pick: Pass
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +145, Cardinals -175
- Total: 50
Everyone just watched Jayden Daniels put up a historic performance on “Monday Night Football” in the Commanders’ upset win over the Bengals. Yet, they’re underdogs of more than a field goal against the 1-2 Cardinals?
The problem for Washington is that they still have the NFL’s worst defense, and their offense took advantage of a Bengals unit that isn’t much better (30th in EPA per drive allowed).
Traveling to the West Coast on a short week, I believe the Commanders could be overvalued a bit here and that the Cardinals are better than their record indicates led by Kyler Murray’s stellar play so far.
I’ll wait for this line to potentially drop to three points before officially betting on it.
Prediction: Cardinals 30, Commanders 24
Pick: Cardinals -3.5 (-102)
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers
- Moneyline: Chiefs -325, Chargers +260
- Total: 40
The Chargers enter this game as one of the most-injured teams in the NFL.
Justin Herbert is banged up, their starting tackles aren’t expected to play, and Joey Bosa has been out of practice all week with a hip injury. To make matters worse, Derwin James Jr. is also suspended.
This would be an obvious spot to bet on the Chiefs, except they have been very underwhelming (for their standards) to start this season.
Even with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, their offense hasn’t looked right. While they’re great at extending drives (best in success rate), they have generated only 14 explosive plays (rushes of 12+ yards, passing plays of 16+ yards) all season. That’s less than the Raiders and Patriots and equal to the Browns and Panthers. Let that sink in.
So far this season, unders are 3-0 in Chargers games due to their slow tempo and ball-control offense. Let’s bet on their under streak extending to four games in a row.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 14
Pick: Under 40 (-110)
Cleveland Browns (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Browns -112, Raiders -108
- Total: 36.5
Deshaun Watson rightfully deserves much of the blame for the Browns’ struggles offensively, but their offensive line has been off to a rough start as well.
Looking at which QBs face the most pressure and how much they contribute to it themselves. Exhibit A on why Bryce Young was benched pic.twitter.com/0rKlLhgG82
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 26, 2024
But Maxx Crosby has been ruled out, which should be a huge sigh of relief for the Browns. Outside of Christian Wilkins, the Raiders don’t have much depth on the defensive line. After Watson was sacked eight times by the Giants last week, he should have a cleaner day against this short-handed Raiders defense.
Las Vegas will also be missing its best offensive player on Sunday, as Davante Adams was ruled out as well with a hamstring injury.
Watson and the Browns’ offensive line might be long-term areas of concern, but on Sunday, they should take care of business against a top-heavy Raiders team missing its two best players.
Prediction: Browns 20, Raiders 17
Pick: Browns -1 (-108)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Bills +110, Ravens -130
- Total: 46.5
Even with the Bills playing like the best team in the NFL so far, I’m taking the Ravens here as home favorites.
After three games against the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars, this will be a major step up in competition for the Bills, and that is especially the case on the road.
The Ravens meanwhile, are far better than their 1-2 record indicates and are just a couple of plays away from being 3-0. They also have by far the worst penalty-yardage differential in the NFL of -174 through three weeks, an area where they should see positive regression eventually.
In this spot historically, Lamar Jackson has had a lot of success as well — 6-3 ATS at home in prime time and 23-7 ATS in games with a point spread of three points or less.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bills 21
Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-1)
- Moneyline: Titans -102, Dolphins -118
- Total: 36.5
This is a very low total, and while I usually take the under in these spots, I’m taking a different approach here.
Even if he isn’t a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback, despite earning the nod two seasons ago, Snoop Huntley should be a big upgrade over Skylar Thompson, and all signs point to him starting for Miami on Sunday.
Tennessee meanwhile has Jeffery Simmons and Chidobe Awuzie dealing with injuries, which could be a massive blow to their defense.
Will Levis also continues to be a turnover machine, which could help us in hitting the over on such a low number if he is reckless with the football deep in his own territory.
Prediction: Dolphins 23, Titans 17
Pick: Over 36.5
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Seahawks +150, Lions -180
- Total: 46
The Seahawks are off to a surprising 3-0 start, but they haven’t really been tested yet. Their three wins so far have come against Bo Nix in his first career start and on the road, Jacoby Brissett, and home against Skylar Thompson.
While they might be an improved unit under new head coach Mike Macdonald, who has proven himself to be one of the smartest defensive minds in the NFL, it remains to be seen if this Seahawks defense is for real or not.
Additionally, they have a ton of injuries on that side of the ball, with five starters who are banged up.
Although the Lions are only 16th in points scored, their offense has been averaging the fourth-most yards per game and they are third in success rate.
Look for the Lions to take care of business at home.
Prediction: Lions 26, Seahawks 21
Pick: Lions -3.5 (-110)