This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants features one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in CeeDee Lamb, as well as an emerging superstar in Malik Nabers.
For tonight’s game, should you be targeting each of their player props in a divisional matchup? Lets dive into my most recommended Thursday Night Football prop bets, with advanced statistics and analysis to back up each pick.
Recommended Prop Bets for Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
CeeDee Lamb Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
While Lamb has had a productive start to this season, he has been performing below his lofty expectations.
Tonight, however, Lamb could be in for a big game.
Last season, out of 42 wide receivers with 100+ targets, Lamb had the fourth-highest target percentage vs. man coverage at 36.0%. So far this season the Giants have run man coverage at the fourth-highest rate.
motivated to move forward#DALvsNYG | @pepsi pic.twitter.com/59gMV73UiE
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) September 25, 2024
This is a number he has only cleared once so far this season, and that came against the Saints, another man coverage-heavy team.
Daniel Jones Longest Completion Under 32.5 Yards (-115)
It seems like Giants head coach Brian Daboll is trying to replicate the same strategy with Daniel Jones in 2024 that worked well in 2022 — a conservative, ball-control passing attack.
While Jones has a very low 1.6% of turnover-worthy plays according to PFF, he ranks just 23rd in percentage of explosive pass attempts (16+ yards) out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks.
In fact, so far this season, Jones hasn’t completed a pass of greater than 30 yards, and this line is set at 32.5.
Considering the Giants could fall behind early and find themselves in a negative game script, I feel more comfortable taking this bet instead of the under on his total passing yards for the game.
Devin Singletary Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
This feels like a similar situation to what we witnessed with Rhamondre Stevenson on Thursday Night Football last week.
In that matchup, the Patriots were six-point underdogs and Stevenson had a matchup against a poor Jets run defense.
Stevenson, whose over/under for rushing yards was 64.5, finished the game with just six carries for 23 yards.
Tonight, Singletary’s team is also a six-point underdog, and his rushing prop is very close to the same line Stevenson had a week ago.
While the Cowboys have been the league’s worst run defense so far this season, they have faced Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry in consecutive weeks — two running backs far superior to Singletary.
For this prop to hit, it would most likely require the Giants to make this a very competitive game, which I don’t foresee happening. For what it’s worth, in the Cowboys’ lone win this season, a 33-17 victory over the Browns, Cleveland’s running backs combined for 54 rushing yards on 14 carries.