For this week’s Thursday Night Football game, we have one of the NFL‘s best wide receivers along with an up-and-comer at the position to choose from as our captain in daily fantasy lineups.
However, in our DFS picks for Cowboys vs. Giants, which premier wide receiver are we building our lineup around? Let’s get into our top DFS Thursday Night Football picks, using a variety of advanced statistics to help put our best lineup together.
Cowboys vs. Giants Top TNF Picks on DraftKings
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants ($16,200) – Captain
Malik Nabers has been everything both Giants fans and his fantasy managers could have hoped for to start this season.
So far this season, almost no wide receiver has matched Nabers’ usage, as he leads all players in targets and trails only Rashee Rice in receptions.
The projected negative game script makes Nabers an easy call in this matchup, in which the Giants are sizable home underdogs.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($11,800)
So far this season, CeeDee Lamb’s target on-field target share has dropped from 29.0% to 20.9%, which is a big reason why his production hasn’t been on par with last season. That’s the difference between deciding between him and Nabers for the Captain spot.
However, Lamb’s floor remains too high on a weekly basis to not roster him in standalone DFS slates. Even with a dip in production, Lamb has still been a top-20 wide receiver in PPR formats.
It’s only a matter of time until Lamb has a monster performance that reminds us why he was in contention for Offensive Player of the Year in 2023, and it could come against a team he went off for 11 receptions, 151 yards, and a touchdown the last time he faced them.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($6,200)
So far this season, the Cowboys have had one of the least efficient rushing attacks in the NFL. Through three weeks, they’re in the bottom five in both yards per carry and average yards after contact.
Between their two main running backs, Rico Dowdle has been much more efficient than Ezekiel Elliott. He is outperforming the veteran in yards per carry, average yards after contact, and success rate.
Dowdle has also seen greater usage than Elliott, with 18 more snaps on the season. In a positive game script as road favorites against the Giants, they could likely continue to lean on him to effectively run out the clock late in the game.
Dallas Cowboys Defense ($5,400)
The Cowboys’ defense has been a disaster so far this season, but this is a favorable matchup for them.
Why? Because they have been one of the best units at creating takeaways the past couple seasons, and are facing one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the NFL in Daniel Jones.
The last time the Cowboys faced Jones, he threw two interceptions (including one that was returned for a touchdown) and was sacked seven times. That was over a year ago now, and while the chances of repeating that performance are unlikely, I’m still expecting the Cowboys’ defense to have a bounce-back performance.
Brandon Aubrey, K, Dallas Cowboys ($5,000)
Brandon Aubrey has officially dethroned Justin Tucker as the best kicker in the NFL. I mean look at how dominant he has been from a fantasy perspective so far this season.
Brandon Aubrey would be the…
WR4
TE1
RB6
QB16 pic.twitter.com/ZVQotE5HWQ— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) September 24, 2024
Considering Aubrey has already made five field goals from 50+ yards this season, and at a perfect percentage to boot, it’s hard not to put him in your lineups tonight.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants ($4,800)
While Nabers has significantly more targets than any other Giants receiver, the gap between Wan’Dale Robinson and the next-closest player on the team is even greater.
Robinson’s issue is that he is a low aDOT receiver, averaging just 8.2 yards per reception and 4.33 air yards per target, which is the third lowest of all players at the position with 10 or more targets.
However, daily fantasy scoring is in a PPR format, and the game script should work in our favor if the Giants fall behind early.