The NFL coaching carousel never stops spinning, and some seats are growing hotter by the week. While Week 3 is early for any coaching change to occur, several situations are worth monitoring as we approach midseason and cold starts turn into lost seasons.
Below we analyze the situations for five head coaches who could be on the hot seat.
Could Kevin Stefanski Be Fired in 2024?
The two-time AP Coach of the Year would seem like an unlikely candidate to lose his job, but Kevin Stefanski is likely facing some heat after a shocking home upset loss to the Giants. The struggles of the Deshaun Watson-led offense persisted, as the Browns have yet to score 20 points in any game this season. Cleveland is averaging 16.7 PPG through three games, nearly a touchdown below last year’s average (23.3).
Stefanski has led enough competent offenses without superstar QBs in Cleveland to deserve some benefit of the doubt, but some personnel changes could be necessary. Watson’s contract puts the Browns in an impossible bind, but Cleveland invested heavily in backup quarterbacks this offseason and has Jameis Winston sitting on the bench.
While Winston’s volatility could lead to more frustrating losses, Watson is running out of time to prove he deserves to maintain the starting job for any reason apart from his salary.
Does Caleb Williams’ Struggles Put Matt Eberflus on the Hot Seat?
First overall pick Caleb Williams had another frustrating outing in Chicago’s loss at Indianapolis. Williams did throw a pair of fourth-quarter TDs, the first two of his career, but also threw two more mystifying interceptions in an uneven game. For the season, Williams is averaging -0.27 EPA per dropback, fourth worst ahead of only Bryce Young, Will Levis and Deshaun Watson.
Laiatu Latu with the clutch strip sack on Caleb Williams!
📺: #CHIvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Anihnys69N— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
There were already questions whether Eberflus would maintain his job after the Bears moved on from Justin Fields in the offseason, with some advocating for an offensive-minded head coach to pair with Williams. Instead, they brought in offensive coordinator Shane Waldron from Seattle, despite the Seahawks regressing from 9th to 17th in PPG last season.
Eberflus will likely receive some patience from ownership, particularly with veteran receiver Keenan Allen out the last two games. But without significant progress by midseason, Eberflus seems unlikely to see a fourth season in Chicago.
How Much Did a Week 3 Win Help Nick Sirianni?
Coming off a stunning MNF loss, the Eagles cooled the hubbub surrounding Sirianni with a comeback win over the Saints. But Philly’s coach found himself embroiled in more fourth down controversy, with the Eagles going 1-3 in the game. The two failures came in Saints territory and took points off the board:
- The Eagles failed on 4th-and-1 at the Saints’ 15-yard line with 14 seconds left in the 2nd quarter. With only 1 timeout remaining, the Eagles would have had to burn their last timeout and likely had time for just one throw into the end zone.
- The Eagles also failed on 4th-and-3 at the Saints’ 34-yard line, trailing 3-0 at the time. With A.J. Brown out and DeVonta Smith injured earlier in the game, Jalen Hurts took a sack and the possession ended in lieu of a potential 52-yard field goal.
With Philadelphia improving to 2-1 in a struggling division, it seems unlikely the Eagles would do anything rash with Sirianni. But with Hurts continuing to struggle with turnovers, any regression that leads to more close losses rather than wins could put Sirianni’s job security back in the spotlight.
Can Mike McCarthy Turn the Cowboys’ Season Around?
The Eagles’ NFC East rivals were not as fortunate on Sunday, with the Cowboys’ furious fourth-quarter comeback falling short against the Ravens. Dallas has lost three straight home games (including the Wild Card loss to the Packers), allowing 40 points per game in those losses.
Given that McCarthy’s job security was the source of open speculation throughout the offseason, it seems unlikely that he could survive another disappointing end to the season. Another one-and-done playoff exit — to say nothing of missing the postseason altogether — would seemingly spell doom for McCarthy’s Dallas tenure.
To save his job, McCarthy needs to find a way to get the Cowboys to start faster. Over the last two games, Dallas has been outscored 56-22 in the first half. As a result, Dallas has not led at all in either game, and it has trailed for over 92 percent of game time.
Playing from behind doesn’t allow Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ pass rush to work in favorable situations, and Dallas has just one sack over those two games as a result. With the offense getting exposed for lacking weapons beyond CeeDee Lamb, it’s up to McCarthy to generate better early-game production that doesn’t force the Cowboys into playing through unfavorable game scripts.
Is Doug Pederson Facing a Must-Win on Monday?
The Jaguars play on Monday Night Football and are staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start. Since racing out to an 8-3 start last season, the Jaguars are just 1-7. Entering Week 3 that was tied with the lowly Panthers for the NFL’s worst record over that span.
With the AFC South-leading Texans suffering a loss on Sunday in Minnesota, it’s too early to say that an 0-3 start would definitely extinguish the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. But Trevor Lawrence’s regression remains a significant concern, as the former No. 1 overall pick has posted a negative EPA per play in six straight starts. Another disappointing season after reaching the Divisional Round in 2022 could put Pederson’s job in jeopardy by season’s end.
Can Zac Taylor Turn the Bengals Around Yet Again?
The Bengals have started 0-2 for the third straight season, putting one of the AFC’s top contenders in early peril yet again. Cincinnati does have experience bouncing back from slow starts – the 2022 team won its final eight games and reached the AFC Championship, while last year’s team won five out of six games until Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury.
A soft fourth-place schedule puts the Bengals in position to rebound yet again. All of Cincinnati’s next five games are against teams currently below .500, and a Week 5 home game vs. the Ravens is the only likely contest where the Bengals will not be significant favorites. But that easy strength of schedule could also put Taylor’s job in danger if Cincy suffers more confounding losses similar to the Week 1 loss vs. New England.
Recent history suggests that Burrow and the Bengals will keep Taylor’s job safe. However, his seat is worth watching in the event that the Bengals suffer any more shocking losses, starting with Monday night’s home game against the Commanders.