The Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots is somewhat strange. Entering the season, the Jets were expected to be playoff challenges, while the Patriots were candidates for the No. 1 pick. However, New York has looked sluggish to open the season, while New England could easily be 2-0.
With the game itself being tough to call, betting on the prop market may be the best way to attack this Patriots vs. Jets matchup. Let’s examine how our NFL betting experts view the game tonight and their recommended Thursday Night Football prop bets.
Recommended Prop Bets for New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 18, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Breece Hall Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-125) | Ben Rolfe
Through the season’s first two games, the Patriots have allowed an average of 58 rushing yards per game. Similarly, Breece Hall has yet to top this number in either of the first two weeks, and he saw rookie RB Braelon Allen take seven carries in Week 2.
Hall has a success rate of just 36.7% this season, and the New England defense does not appear to be the type for that to suddenly change against. Hall is still the Jets’ lead back, but on a short week, when he has been listed on the injury report (albeit as a full participant) is a time I could see the team being cautious with him.
Joey Slye Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-115) | Rolfe
Through two weeks, Joey Slye has attempted six field goals and made five. He has kicked at least two field goals in each game and had three attempts in both. The Patriots’ offense will take what the defense gives them and is not one that will look to force things. That plays perfectly into a field goal market.
Through the first two weeks, the Jets have allowed eight field goals, seven of which came from Jake Moody’s boot in Week 1. They are 24th in the league in yards allowed but have only given up four touchdowns, so they have been good at preventing teams from getting into the end zone. New England should be able to move the ball, but I am not expecting many touchdowns.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+125) | Brian Blewis
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored touchdowns in consecutive games to start the season. Both of his touchdowns came on the ground and inside the five-yard line as well.
Stevenson’s usage has been very high to start the season, especially in the red zone. His 10 red-zone touches are the third-most in the NFL, and all other Patriots running backs have two combined.
The risk here is that New England might have difficulty moving the ball against this New York defense and putting Stevenson in position to score, but I like the value at plus money.
Jacoby Brissett Under 164.5 Passing Yards (-120) | Blewis
Passing yards are very down across the NFL right now. Through two weeks, only 18 starting quarterbacks are averaging 200 or more passing yards per game.
Of the 32 quarterbacks who have started in Weeks 1-2, only Caleb Williams and Bryce Young threw for fewer yards than Jacoby Brissett. So far this season, Brissett has thrown for 270 total passing yards on an average of 5.3 yards per attempt.
Brissett is not a high-level starter, but his lack of supporting cast at wide receiver and the Patriots’ run-first offense (eighth-lowest pass rate over expectation) are also heavy factors here in his low passing numbers.
Tonight, against the Jets’ secondary, I’m not expecting much to change, even as heavy underdogs.
