For the second straight week, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill had a quiet first-half performance in Thursday’s matchup with the Buffalo Bills. Things did not get much better in the second half. On top of that, we saw Tua Tagovailoa leave the game with a concussion, creating uncertainty over his status going forward. Let’s examine what all of this means for fantasy football managers who are relying on Hill in their lineups.
What Happened to Tyreek Hill vs. the Bills?
Hill managed just two receptions (on four targets) for 16 yards in the first half, which was one reason why the Dolphins found themselves down by 14 points midway Thursday. He did have a 12-yard run in the first half.
Hill finished with three receptions (on six targets) for 24 yards. After racking up 26 fantasy points in Week 1, Hill had only 6.6 fantasy points on Thursday, the first time he failed to score at least 10 fantasy points in a game since Week 18 of the 2022 season vs. the New York Jets (4.3 fantasy points).
It was the second straight week to start the season that Hill came out of the gate slow. Last week vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, Hill had only four receptions for 32 yards, an average of 8.0 yards per reception.
He came up big in the second half, with 98 receiving yards on three receptions, as Miami came back to beat Jacksonville. But almost all of those 98 second-half yards came on one play, an 80-yard touchdown reception.
Impact on Hill’s Fantasy Value Coming Out of Thursday Night Football
There is a lot to unpack here with Tua’s injury also adding to the concerns around Hill’s value. Let’s start with Hill himself.
One bad game for Hill should not immediately create panic for fantasy managers. We have seen this before during his time with the Dolphins, but it has been rare. Three times in his Dolphins career, Hill scored less than 10 fantasy points in PPR scoring, and he scored fewer than 13 fantasy points just six times.
Last night’s game falls into both categories. It was the third time it has happened against the Bills, two of which have been at home. He has broken out for two 20-fantasy-point performances, but he has struggled from a fantasy perspective in 60% of the games he has played against Buffalo as a member of the Dolphins.
Hill averages just 13.04 fantasy points per game when facing Buffalo compared to 21.6 during his time in Miami. That is likely a product of the way the Bills scheme their defense against the Dolphins. The Bills have relied on a split-safety coverage scheme heavily in the majority of their games against the Dolphins since 2022.
Looking to neutralize the Dolphins big-play offense, the Bills featured split-safety coverage on 31 of 43 dropbacks (72%), their 4th-highest mark in a game since 2018.
Out of the top 8 games in split-safety usage by the Bills, four have come against the Dolphins since 2022.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 13, 2024
Under normal circumstances, we would just shrug this performance off, but these are not normal circumstances.
The issue here is that it looks like Tua might be missing at least a few weeks, if not longer. Hill’s record with the Dolphins’ QBs not named Tua is not pretty. With Skylar Thompson throwing him the ball, he averages 1.24 yards per route and 1.66 PPR fantasy points per target. With Tua, those numbers are 3.75 yards per route and 2.12 PPR fantasy points per target.
Hill’s target share with Thompson is just 24.4%, compared to 36.3% with Tua throwing him the ball. Naturally, the Dolphins will tend to play more conservatively without Tua — and conservatively does not suit the game of a deep-threat speedster like Hill. Of course, he can do more, but it severely caps his upside.
One glimmer of hope may be that Hill had solid numbers with Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball. He averaged 4.01 yards per route and 2.04 PPR fantasy points per target. Bridgewater is likely not coming back, but the Dolphins could go out and sign free agent quarterback Ryan Tannehill or trade for another veteran quarterback. That would be the best-case scenario for Hill’s fantasy managers.
Ultimately, this is a tough spot if you drafted Hill this year. There is very little value in trading him because, at best, you are going to get 50 cents on the dollar, most likely a lot less. If I am a manager who does not roster Hill, I am throwing Flex-level starters at his manager in trade offers this morning.
If you have Hill on your roster, it would make sense to sit tight. Thompson is the floor, and while it’s not pretty, it is not a total disaster. Hill likely still has Flex starting value on a week-to-week basis. You would be hard-pressed to get that in a trade right now. Hold on tight and hope that Tua is back this season or a veteran quarterback rides to the safety.