Some second-running-back decisions become much clearer for fantasy football managers after the start of the NFL season. Other choices can be a bit trickier, especially when lead backs on struggling offenses are your best options.
Who should you start between D’Andre Swift and Jerome Ford in your fantasy lineup entering Week 2?
Should You Start D’Andre Swift or Jerome Ford This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Swift is the player to start. His projected 10.4 points include 37 rushing yards, three catches, and 19 receiving yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Ford (10.2 points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Ford outperforming Swift for a multitude of reasons — mainly because Ford has secured the goal line role in Cleveland. Plus, the Chicago Bears offense actually struggled more than the Cleveland Browns‘ did in the season opener.
Swift’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
A brutal Bears offensive display in Caleb Williams’ NFL debut had a profound impact on Swift’s fantasy production in Week 1.
Swift’s 5.0 fantasy points in full-PPR formats (30 rushing yards on 10 carries, no receptions, and a successful two-point conversion) was not an encouraging debut.
Swift’s one target in the passing game is highly concerning considering one of his best fantasy traits over his NFL career has been his production as a receiving threat. He was a complete non-factor in this regard in Week 1.
Making matters worse was the terrible offensive line play, in which Tennessee rookie defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat absolutely abused the interior of the team’s offensive line unit. That isn’t encouraging when trying to project the team’s rushing attack moving forward.
Fortunately, Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer were equally ineffective with their combined four carries for 14 yards, but they did manage to steal 32.1% of the offensive snaps from Swift in their complementary roles.
Swift does look like the Bears’ lead back for now, but I would temper my expectations from a fantasy lens entering a matchup against the Houston Texans until that offense shows us signs of life with a rookie quarterback under center.
Ford’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
It wasn’t very pretty at times, but volume and a garbage-time touchdown managed to make Ford the RB10 overall in full-PPR formats with 69 total yards on 18 touches in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys.
Fortunately for fantasy managers, six of those touches came in the form of checkdown receptions, which suggests Ford could have a reliable fantasy floor in full-PPR formats in negative game scripts.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
Another encouraging takeaway we have from Week 1 was Ford’s dominant usage compared to that of Pierre Strong Jr.’s, who saw just five total opportunities to Ford’s 19 against Dallas. Ford saw 72.9% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, which makes him the expected leading ball carrier for Cleveland while Nick Chubb is unavailable.
Ford could have tough sledding on the ground again while facing off against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that held the Miami Dolphins’ duo of De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert to just 33 yards on 16 carries in Week 1.
Fortunately, this same Jags defense allowed Achane to catch seven passes for 76 yards; that does give Ford some upside in the passing game.
Ultimately, Ford is still a solid RB2 option in Week 2.
Kyle Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Outlook for Swift and Ford
D’Andre Swift: The receivers obviously have value to gain as Williams finds his NFL legs, but Swift’s stock might have the most room to grow as the rookie quarterback develops.
In the season opener, there was nothing in the way of competition for Swift managers to sweat (67.9% snap share, the only Chicago RB to reach even 21%).
The zero receiving yards last week sticks out, but the fact that Swift ran 20 routes provides me with long-term hope. He’ll be better in that regard, likely sooner than later, and I expect his rushing success rate to also correlate with Williams’ comfort level.
Swift’s Week 1 breakdown:
- His 20-yard carry: seven yards gained before contact
- Other 10 rush attempts: negative-one yard before contact
Hang in there. Bell-cow roles don’t grow on trees in 2024, and, at the very least, we know Swift has that.
The Texans were the best defense last season in terms of limiting yards per carry, so I’m not sure this is a spot for Swift to live up to the potential I think he will eventually have access to.
Be patient. Or buy low after this week. Better days are ahead of Swift – likely over the next few weeks (IND-LAR-CAR in Weeks 3-5).
Jerome Ford: Are we sure Ford is even an average NFL running back? Or is he Rachaad White with less stability under center?
In 2023, no qualified running back gained yardage at a lower rate than Ford, and his 69-yard, 18-touch performance against the Cowboys last week wasn’t exactly inspiring. In keeping with the White comparison, he’s doing enough to justify starting him – he played 72.9% of the snaps and is versatile enough to bail you out with six short-yardage receptions.
The touch count seems to be safe as long as Nick Chubb is on the shelf, and that lands him in the Flex discussion. But with rushing efficiency a long shot and limited scoring equity, I think there’s a better shot he finishes outside of the top 35 running backs this weekend than inside the top 20.