This game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins has the feel of one that should be high-scoring, but historically, the under has prevailed in these matchups.
That makes this one a tough one for fantasy managers to judge entering Week 2, especially with Raheem Mostert ruled out and De’Von Achane questionable in the Dolphins’ backfield.
Let’s break down the game and look at the main fantasy options managers should be starting and sitting on this week.
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- Total: 48.5
- Bills implied points: 23
- Dolphins implied points: 25.5
Is De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright, or Jeff Wilson Jr. the Dolphins RB to Start in Week 2?
De’Von Achane: After Raheem Mostert got the first carry, Achane got the next two and picked up 39 yards in the process. I liked seeing him cash in a goal-line carry, but it was the paying off of preseason hype in terms of pass-game usage that caught my attention.
Achane caught seven passes in the season opener after seeing 5+ targets just once as a rookie. The snap share (53.8%) has room to grow, though if it didn’t happen last week with Jaylen Wright inactive, I don’t know how you can realistically count on that.
First 113 career carries:
- LaDainian Tomlinson: 441 yards and six TDs
- Achane: 824 yards and nine TDs
Raheem Mostert: The Dolphins RB has been ruled out of Week 2.
Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson Jr.: The absence of Mostert alone puts both of these running backs on the Flex radar and should Achane even be limited, the push for a top 30 ranking will begin.
My lean is to favor the rookie in this situation, as he is the more explosive player that gives this offense the versatility it thrives on. Wilson is a steadying force and would likely split the available work with Wright, but I’m confident that the per touch production will slant in Wright’s favor.
The Bills have allowed the third most yards per carry after contact to opposing running backs since the beginning of last season — if they can’t wrap up Wright, we could see glimpses of rookie Achane in a different jersey number.
Is it the James Cook Show for Fantasy Managers, or can Ray Davis Have Week 2 Value?
James Cook: Since Brady took over this offense, Cook has 64.8% of running back carries, 67.8% of running back rushing yards, and 68.9% of running back receiving yards. He may not hold the scoring equity that we all want (six straight scoreless games, including the playoffs), but he checks every other box.
And in a world where committees are in vogue, that locks Cook into lineups across the board.
Given Allen’s level of success in this spot, Cook is an RB1 for me, ranking ahead of a Week 1 star in Joe Mixon.
Ray Davis: It’s too early to outright dismiss Davis, but the odds of him holding stand-alone value appear to be an even longer shot now than it was a week ago (10.3% snap share in Week 1).
I thought Davis showed well for himself when given the opportunity. He picked up 14 yards on a play where he was featured in play-action and followed it up with a 13-yard rush. But without volume or a projectable role on the goal line, he’s a luxury roster stash more than a must-hold.
Should Fantasy Managers Have Any Doubts Over Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle This Week?
Tyreek Hill: He’s inevitable, it really is just that simple.
Tyreek Hill was detained pregame and missed on a potential 51-yard touchdown in the early going. With the Jags playing well, it seemed like the season opener was going to be a dud.
If you blinked, you missed Hill running a crosser and running away from every Jaguar for an 80-yard touchdown. Steph Curry doesn’t make every shot, and Scottie Scheffler doesn’t hit every fairway, but over the course of a game/tournament, they get there.
Hill is that, and when weather isn’t an issue, this Miami offense is as reliable as any in the league.
Everyone knows where the targets are going in this offense, and they simply can’t stop it. You should never hesitate to play your Dolphins, especially in a game that is expected to be tight and in front of the Miami faithful.
Jaylen Waddle: I was hopeful that Jaylen Waddle’s speed would take away the defender’s angle on his 63-yard reception last week. He was unable to find paydirt, though the ability to land a splash play was a good reminder that this is a WR1 in a WR2’s role.
Waddle was dinged up early and only managed a 13.9% target share last week. Things went as poorly as they could for him, and he was still fine. You’re playing him as a WR2 in all formats every single week.
Can Fantasy Managers Trust Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, or Curtis Samuel?
Khalil Shakir: I maintain my thought that this is the Buffalo receiver to roster. He showcased a nose for the end zone on a nice 11-yard catch-and-run against Arizona, a play set up by Cook going in motion to help Allen identify single coverage on Shakir.
The ability to scheme advantageous spots is massive, but those reads aren’t always going to go to the slot savant. Two of Shakir’s three catches in Week 1 came on third down, another positive development, though the volume of this passing game is going to make a low aDOT player like this a longshot to crack my top-30 until byes/injuries subtract from the positional player pool.
Curtis Samuel: The turf toe injury pretty clearly limited Samuel (30% route participation), and while he was able to haul in both of his targets, the ease with which the Bills worked in Mack Hollins (25 yards, TD) suggests that a rotation at the position is likely moving forward.
Samuel is not a must-roster player, but if you want to hold, understand that you are playing the long game and not likely to get any meaningful production while he rehabs on the fly.
Keon Coleman: The rookie led the Bills in catches (four), targets (five), and receiving yards (51) in his NFL debut, with a 28-yard grab highlighting his afternoon against the Cardinals.
Coleman was fine, but with Samuel compromised and Dalton Kincaid hardly used for some reason, this was an opportunity for Coleman to be better than “fine.”
The 90% route participation (Shakir: 70%) was encouraging, and if you want to bet on those Allen trends resulting in a breakout performance, I get it. But when you consider that, against an underwhelming defense, Buffalo spread out 2-5 targets to eight different players, I’m in no hurry to play any of these receivers.
Are Both Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa Must-Starts in Week 2?
Josh Allen: Zero is the number for the week.
Zero times has Allen failed to throw multiple TD passes against Miami.
Zero players have more rushing TDs than Allen since Joe Brady took over as Bills OC.
Zero QBs should be ranked ahead of Allen this week.
In his first game of his seventh season, Josh Allen is now tied for the second-most TDs in a player's first seven seasons:
1. Patrick Mahomes – 231
2t. Josh Allen – 225
2t. Dan Marino – 225
2t. Peyton Manning – 225— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) September 8, 2024
For his career, Allen averages 28.9 PPG career vs. Miami (12 games) with 72.9% of points coming via the pass (34.8% of those points being scored on the deep pass). Add in the rushing TD equity with Brady calling the plays (as it is, Allen has 30+ rushing yards in nine of those games) and you’re going to have a hard time projecting any player in the sport to top Buffalo’s lead man in Week 2.
Tua Tagovailoa: No team gave the opposing QB more time to throw last week than the Bills, and if they deploy a similar strategy this week, Tagovailoa could correct some of his historical struggles against the divisional rival. He’s never scored more than 18.1 fantasy points against the Bills and averages roughly 30% fewer points per pass in those spots than his career norm.
This offense remains a concentrated one (66.7% of Tagovailoa’s targets went to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or De’Von Achane) and that makes Tagovailoa a top-10 signal-caller this week.
Can Jonnu Smith Join Dalton Kincaid as a Fantasy Option in Week 2?
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: The list of players more disappointing than Kincaid in Week 1 wasn’t long, as he had just one catch on two targets for 11 yards. Buffalo hardly threw the ball in the first half, and no Bill went into halftime with multiple targets. And even when things opened up a bit late, their star tight end was nowhere to be found.
I’m annoyed, but I’m not worried.
Kincaid was on the field for 87.9% of snaps (Dawson Knox: 55.2%), and that is all we can ask for. His target that hit the ground came in the red zone, so there’s a world in which he saves what might be his lowest usage game of the season with a score.
To my eye, no receiver established himself as the alpha target earner in this top-10 offense last week, and that is why I continue to believe that Kincaid will lead this team in targets.
Hang in there – he’s still a top-five player at the position for me, and I expect him to showcase the potential we saw last season in this high-scoring game.
Jonnu Smith: Does it matter if a steak place offers above-average pasta? Not really – you’re never ordering it. You want to go to what the restaurant does well, and I can’t blame you.
Smith is Miami’s pasta while its star receivers are the steak. Smith saw just two targets on Sunday, and while his athletic profile is interesting in an offense that is going to put points on the board, the risk simply isn’t worth it.