The Cincinnati Bengals’ upset loss to the New England Patriots likely eliminated over 30% of survivor league teams in Week 1, which gives you an opportunity to capitalize on the thousands of entries that failed to make it out of the opening week of the 2024 NFL season.
Here’s a closer look at my survivor picks for Week 2 with some additional strategy over the next month of the season.
Survivor Picks Strategy for NFL Week 2
In case this is your first time playing in a survivor league, the Bengals’ upset loss at the hands of the Patriots is a reminder of the madness that can take place in this contest on a weekly basis.
Sure, the late-week hamstring injury Tee Higgins suffered, coupled with Ja’Marr Chase dealing with an illness, made this game a bit riskier than originally anticipated. Still, few NFL pundits gave New England a chance to win on the road against a potential Super Bowl contender with Jacoby Brissett under center and Jerod Mayo making his head coaching debut.
Nevertheless, this upset was a perfect reminder that this is the NFL, where anything can happen on any given Sunday.
As mentioned last week, simply picking the biggest favorite on a weekly basis — which will normally include some of the best teams in the league — might feel like a safe strategy, but it doesn’t exactly guarantee you’re going to advance.
In fact, picking another team with a favorable matchup but a slightly lower spread could greatly position you to capitalize in your survivor league if a major upset happens, like it did on Sunday.
This is why I’m here to provide you with some additional long-term strategies to help optimize your weekly picks, position yourself to win now and later, and, ultimately, hoist your survivor league championship trophy.
I don’t particularly have any unbreakable rules when selecting games, but I have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
I want to be clear, these rules aren’t gospel. This doesn’t mean you can’t pick a divisional matchup when making your weekly selection. Just be cognizant of the fact that opponents who are very familiar with one another could play out a bit differently than you expect if you’re just looking at team records.
Additionally, we really want to do everything within our power to avoid using teams that hold significant future value through the first five weeks of the NFL season.
For example, since the Seattle Seahawks were the most selected team that won in Week 1, I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.
If you have any survivor questions specific to your league, please don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel so we can talk on that platform.
This appropriately brings us to the section where we start laying out our battle plan for the first month of the season. To accomplish that objective, here are two sets of strategies you could deploy to keep those teams available heading into October.
Strategy 1
Week 2: Baltimore Ravens (vs. LV)
Week 3: Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (vs. NE)
Week 5: Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BUF, DAL, MIA, HOU, DAL
Strategy 2
Week 2: Houston Texans (vs. CHI)
Week 3: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. WAS)
Week 4: New York Jets (vs. DEN)
Week 5: Los Angeles Rams (vs. GB)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BAL, SF, MIA, BUF, DAL
In both strategies, you get to keep more than a handful of projected playoff teams with some elite options at quarterback available after the first month of the season, which really comes into play once bye weeks begin in Week 5.
Another popular strategy is to simply tail a terrible football team. I’m completely on board with this strategy, which means targeting teams we expect to struggle. This strategy could work out very well, but I would advise waiting until we get to Week 3 to deploy it.
If you recall, most NFL pundits didn’t expect the Houston Texans to be a playoff team last year — which means they eliminated many survivor league participants in 2023 when they turned out to be far better than expected.
Sure, we expect teams like the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans to struggle this year. But I would still exercise a bit of caution early on before assuming these teams will be awful in 2024. After all, the Patriots proved in Week 1 that these teams don’t always live up to their low expectations early in the season.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is expected to miss the next 3-6 weeks while dealing with a knee injury, which could make them a viable candidate to target if they struggle with Malik Willis or Sean Clifford under center.
During that stretch, the Packers will play the Indianapolis Colts, Titans, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, and Texans. Personally, I would feel comfortable utilizing the Colts during this time and would consider the Rams, Cardinals, and Texans if Love’s injury keeps him on the shelf for the entire six-week timetable and the Packers’ offense looks rough with a backup quarterback under center.
Chalk Picks for Week 2
A popular strategy survivor players love to use in larger leagues is picking against the “chalk” (code for choosing a significant favorite) to help maximize your chances of winning if a big upset takes place — just like it did on Sunday with the Bengals losing to the Patriots.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 2, according to Numberfire.com.
Here are the “chalk” picks that have my stamp of approval for Week 2.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. LV)
The Baltimore Ravens starting the year 0-1 shouldn’t be a concern when you take into consideration they barely lost to the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on their home turf.
Lamar Jackson decided to put the team on his shoulders in the opener and logged 16 carries for 122 yards to go along with 273 yards and a score through the air. For some additional context, his 16 Week 1 rushing attempts were higher than any game he played last season during his MVP campaign.
Some survivor league players may have concerns about Derrick Henry’s lackluster debut in a Ravens uniform. His 46 rushing yards on just 13 carries did feel a bit disappointing, but this performance did come against one of the stingier defensive units in the league with a game script that didn’t exactly favor a back devoid of a dynamic pass-catching skill set.
Fortunately, the Ravens are set to face off against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that just gave up 176 rushing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers — who are led by J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
The Raiders’ rush defense allowed a healthy 2.81 yards before contact per attempt in Week 1, which should have Baltimore’s offense salivating at the chance to impose its will on the ground against a unit that gave up 6.5 yards per carry in the season opener.
Additionally, Gardnew Minshew squaring off against this Ravens defense isn’t exactly the same level of quarterback play Baltimore faced in Week 1 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Don’t overthink this. If you want to go with a safer play in Week 2, the Ravens should be your pick.
Houston Texans (vs. CHI)
C.J. Stroud did very little to suggest his outstanding rookie season was a fluke with his Week 1 performance against the Colts. His 234 yards and two scores against a division rival were enough to complement an impressive debut from Joe Mixon on the ground, making this offense feel like a potentially elite unit through the first week of action.
The Chicago Bears’ defense and special-teams units both scored touchdowns, helping the franchise steal a victory against the Titans in their home opener. However, I don’t see that being the case on the road against a significantly better Texans franchise.
Caleb Williams was objectively poor in his starting debut with just 93 passing yards and no scores on 29 passing attempts in Week 1. Additionally, the talented rookie was sacked twice, fumbled, and didn’t lead a single touchdown drive in his NFL debut.
To make matters worse, Williams could be without talented rookie WR Rome Odunze against Houston after picking up an MCL sprain against Tennessee.
Williams is going to be expected to do more in order to come away with a win on the road against a quality opponent. While I believe he’s going to have a nice career, I see Week 2 being another growing pain opportunity for a rookie making the first road start of his NFL journey against a potential Super Bow contender.
Contrarian Pick for Week 2
Indianapolis Colts (at GB)
The Colts came up just short against the aforementioned Texans in the season opener, but the signs we saw from Anthony Richardson in the vertical passing game were very, very encouraging.
Richardson’s Week 1 Stats (Positional Rank):
- Air Yards per Attempt: 16.4 (first)
- Air Yards per Completion: 17.9 (first)
- Total Air Yards: 163 (second)
- EPA per Dropback: 0.22 (sixth)
- 50+ Yard Passing Completions: three (first)
Richardson’s number actually left a bit of meat on the bone with a couple of misses down the field to rookie Adonai Mitchell. That makes Indianapolis’ offense an intriguing one entering their matchup against Green Bay — who gave up the fourth-most total yards (410) to start the season.
The Packers’ defense allowed 144 yards on the ground, which included 100+ rushing yards from Saquon Barkley in his Philadelphia Eagles debut. This is particularly concerning for Green Bay, who will be tasked with slowing down both Richardson and Jonathan Taylor in Week 2.
Additionally, losing Love means the Packers will have to rely on either Willis or Clifford to orchestrate the offense, which likely isn’t going to strike fear into the heart of the Colts’ defense.
If Green Bay continues to run Cover 0 (all-out blitz) at the fourth-highest rate in the league (8.1%) and dare Richardson to punish them vertically, they could be in for an unpleasant surprise if they fail to get home or the talented second-year QB continues to connect on these deep vertical shots.