The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams were competitors in the NFC playoffs, facing off in the Wild Card Round, where the Lions came away with a narrow win before ultimately falling just a few plays short of a Super Bowl appearance.
Many blame Sean McVay’s game management decisions for the Rams’ loss to the Lions in the playoffs last year. To add to the fire, the Lions and Rams are still a few years removed from a blockbuster trade that resulted in a quarterback swap (among other things) and a Rams Super Bowl victory.
This rematch just means more.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Lions -4.5 - Moneyline
Lions (-205); Rams (+170) - Over/Under
52 total points - Game time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Ford Field (Detroit)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Preview and Prediction
Adding Kevin Dotson paid off for the Rams last season, and I think signing Jonah Jackson will, as well. That being said, this offensive line will have a full plate going up against the Lions’ defensive line.
Aidan Hutchinson had a pass-rush win rate of 21.3% last year, earning a 91.4 pass-rush grade, per PFF. Of 102 offensive linemen with over 500 pass-blocking snaps, tackle Alaric Jackson had the 16th-most pressures allowed per game.
Yet, I fully McVay’s play-calling to mitigate this potential mismatch. Quarterback Matthew Stafford ranked seventh among qualified quarterbacks in time to throw last season, and that’s with an average depth of target higher than all but one of the six ranked ahead of him.
McVay and Stafford work together seamlessly to prevent pressures by getting the ball out early. Add this to a ground game that ranked second in the league last year, and we will have quite the matchup on our hands.
The Rams added Tre’Davious White and Kamren Curl to the defense while losing Aaron Donald, the greatest defensive player of this generation.
White was once a solid corner, but only time will tell if he can come back from a combination of his age and injury history. Curl ranked 46th of 103 safeties in yards allowed per reception and 39th in PFF coverage grade.
These are particularly important additions to a defense that ranked 23rd in defensive pass EPA (expected points added) in 2023.
Rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske will be expected to help Kobie Turner replace Donald’s production on the defensive line.
While I am very impressed with this trio’s potential, they’re facing arguably the best offensive line in the NFL.
Arguably the scariest parts of the Lions’ offense this year is the fact that Ben Johnson has returned to call plays and Jameson Williams has still not reached his potential. If Detroit can get Williams to showcase the talent he had at Alabama, it will add an element to this offense that will be nearly impossible to stop. As is, the Lions’ offense ranked fifth in EPA in 2023.
The Rams’ defense last year ranked 12th in defensive pass EPA in Cover 2 but only used it at the 30th-highest rate in the league. This is important because Cover 2 is, by far, quarterback Jared Goff’s biggest weakness.
In 2023, Goff averaged 0.09 EPA per dropback or better against Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6. Against Cover 2, however, Goff averaged minus-0.32 EPA per dropback.
I think 4.5 points is a tough spot to be in, but the Lions match up well and should be able to cover this spread.
I like both offenses to score a lot of points, but a 52-point total with a 4.5-point spread gives us an implied score of 28.25 to 23.75. At your typical odds of -110, I would stay away, even though I know both teams are more than capable of achieving this.
My Picks: Lions -4.5