The Cleveland Browns will start the 2024 season much like they finished the 2023 campaign — with Jerome Ford as the offense’s RB1.
With Nick Chubb officially unavailable for the season-opening matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, should you start or sit Ford in fantasy football in Week 1?
Fantasy Outlook for Jerome Ford vs. Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy managers have become accustomed to Chubb being one of the most consistent fantasy producers at the running back position since he entered the league back in 2018.
Entering last season, Chubb managed to rattle five consecutive seasons with 995+ rushing yards and 8+ TDs. No matter how you slice it, Chubb was rightfully considered an elite ball carrier running behind one of the best offensive line units in the league.
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Unfortunately, tragedy struck the talented ball carrier in the form of a torn ACL and MCL in Week 2 of the 2023 season, which paved the way for Ford to have an expanded role in this offense.
The results were a bit inconsistent, but Ford managed to produce 813 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and nine scores on 248 total touches, which led to a solid RB16 overall finish in full-PPR formats in 2023.
So, why does this matter regarding Ford’s outlook for Week 1 of the season against the Cowboys?
For starters, Ford is certainly positioned to be the leading ball carrier. The team lacked enough conviction in backup RB D’Onta Foreman and actually released him prior to the 53-man roster deadline over a week ago — only to re-sign him after parting ways with QB Tyler Huntley.
Ford is expected to have another busy year with recent reports even suggesting that Chubb may not return until the middle of the season.
This Dallas defense does have a handful of very talented players both up front and in the secondary, headlined by Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and Trevon Diggs.
Yet, this is the same Cowboys defensive unit that got steamrolled up front by the Green Bay Packers to the tune of 118 rushing yards and three scores by Aaron Jones in the 48-32 loss in the Wild Card Round of the 2023 NFL postseason.
This Browns offensive line still features an incredibly formidable unit with Jack Conklin, Wyatt Teller, Ethan Pocic, Joel Bitonio, and Jedrick Wills Jr. up front, which could certainly create some rushing lanes if the defense doesn’t see improved play from Mazi Smith in Year 2.
Ford did experience some efficiency issues last year with an insanely high 27.5% of his carries resulting in either no gain or negative yardage.
Yet, Ford’s negative plays were offset by the explosive plays he generated in the ground attack. He gained 10+ yards on 23 of his carries, which ranked 14th at the position. This made Ford a bit of a boom-or-bust option.
Unless the Browns unexpectedly use Foreman in a similar manner to that of Kareem Hunt from last year — who plodded his way to 411 rushing yards on 135 carries at a 3.04 yards per carry average while stealing nine rushing scores away from Ford — then Ford is an RB2 option and should be in your starting lineup for Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Ford in Week 1
This spot isn’t much different than the one Chuba Hubbard finds himself in with the Panthers – the bellcow on an iffy offense with the starter out for at least the first month. I prefer him by two spots to Carolina’s backup option, and that lands him inside my top 30 running backs for Week 1. Barely.
Ford is strictly a volume play. There were 35 qualified running backs last season, and Ford finished 35th in the percentage of carries that gained yardage (72.5%). It’s natural to remember the big run in a prime-time spot after Chubb’s injury, but the fact of the matter is that Ford was very ordinary in his extended work last season; expecting more than that to open 2024 is a bit misguided.
The Cowboys were the best first-down run defense a season ago and allowed only three running backs to reach 14 PPR points in a game. The ceiling is low, but much like Hubbard, the known volume earns him Flex consideration with many backfields not offering that.
Ford is not a target of mine in DFS and isn’t someone I’d be thrilled with rostering in a Guillotine league, but in a redraft setting, if you spent early-round draft capital on the onesie positions, I could see a situation where you’re backed into a corner. He’s viable in a spot like that, though I’d still lean on slotting a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba into your Flex if you have the option.