The Washington Commanders parted ways with Antonio Gibson only to bring in former fantasy football darling Austin Ekeler to join forces with Brian Robinson Jr. in a new-look offense with a rookie quarterback under center and a brand new offensive scheme in Kliff Kingsbury.
Entering a Week 1 showdown against a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense, should you start Robinson or Ekeler in fantasy football this week?
Should You Start Brian Robinson or Austin Ekeler This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Robinson is the player to start. His projected 9.1 points include a projection of 46 rushing yards and one reception for 12 yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Ekeler (7.6 points).
My ranking for the two Commanders running backs aligns with the consensus when looking at this Week 1 matchup against Tampa Bay.
Let’s start here by taking a closer look at this matchup against the Bucs’ defense.
The Tampa Bay defense was stout once again when facing opposing rushing attacks in 2023, finishing with the third-lowest rushing yards per game allowed at just 93.5 last year. In contrast, Washington ranked 26th in rushing yards per game at 93.6 last season while operating behind a struggling offensive line in a pass-happy offense.
The team did address the offensive line this offseason by signing center Tyler Biadasz in free agency and selecting Brandon Coleman with the No. 67 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Coleman should factor into the left tackle equation during his rookie year.
Yet, I’m not sure these moves are enough to move the needle and project a big rushing performance from either Robinson or Ekeler in Week 1.
From an efficiency perspective, Robinson improved in 2023 with 4.12 yards per carry, while Ekeler posted a career-low mark of 3.51 in that same category. Ekeler’s other advanced metrics, like yards after contact per attempt (2.64), fantasy points per opportunity (0.40), and explosive rushing plays, all suggest he showed significant signs of reduced efficiency last year.
That’s not a good sign for a 29-year-old running back.
In this matchup against a stout rushing defense, one could certainly argue that Ekeler could see more work in the passing game to attack the Bucs’ weaknesses against opposing passing attacks, especially when you factor in the lack of proven playmakers on the perimeter outside of Terry McLaurin.
Additionally, no team gave up more yards after catch (YAC) last season than the Bucs, which certainly provides Ekeler a path to a productive day through the air if he returns to his 2022 efficiency.
Yet, relying on a rookie quarterback making his starting debut against an aggressive blitzing defense isn’t exactly a promising prospect.
Ultimately, Robinson and Ekeler’s fantasy outlooks present more questions than answers, with a new quarterback, new coaching scheme, and new moving pieces along the offensive line entering a matchup against one of the best run defenses in the league.
In this situation, I am going to lean towards starting the player who I simply believe will have more total touches and projects as the preferred short-yardage option in goal-line situations, which makes me want to start Robinson over Ekeler in Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Robinson and Ekeler in Week 1
Brian Robinson Jr.: I like Robinson this season more than most, but the optimism doesn’t carry over to the season opener. If Austin Ekeler is ever going to consistently cut into his touch count, it’ll come early in the season, thus making an 18+ touch afternoon somewhat of a longshot.
I think we see the volume turn in his favor before long, but without it, the ceiling isn’t that high. Only once last season did an RB reach 20 PPR points against the Bucs without having 24+ touches (Jonathan Taylor in Week 12; I like Robinson as much as anyone, and I think we can agree he’s no J.T.) With the third-best red-zone defense on the other end, this isn’t as favorable of a matchup as you might assume.
I’m Flexing Robinson in a few spots (ahead of Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard in my ranks) this week with the expectation of 10-12 PPR points. The logic behind the love for him this season was a cheap bet on an offense that could overachieve and his continued development as a pass catcher. I remain bullish on the player for the marathon that is the fantasy season, even if the first sprint isn’t an impressive one.
Austin Ekeler: I was vocal in my support of Robinson this offseason and that, naturally, comes layered with a bet against Ekeler. The one-time fantasy god came in 21.1% below fantasy expectations last season, a bad mark for anyone, let alone someone whose baseline was 17.7% over expectation.
The Buccaneers excelled in a few areas on the defensive side of the ball last season, but they were top six in both opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion to running backs. Ekeler, in my opinion, has a thin path to fantasy upside; if the production in the passing game is at all limited, he’s poised to hurt you more often than help.
Keep him rostered, but try not to get sucked in by the value that this name has held in the past.