The Cincinnati Bengals‘ backfield is going to have a significantly different look after the departure of Joe Mixon this offseason. This leaves the duo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown splitting work amongst one another in this potentially high-scoring offense entering the 2024 NFL season.
Should you start Moss or Brown in fantasy football for their Week 1 matchup against the New England Patriots?
Should You Start Zack Moss or Chase Brown This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings say that Moss is the player to start. His projected 9.9 points include 46 rushing yards, two receptions, and 12 yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Brown (8.5 points).
My ranking for the two Bengals running backs aligns with the consensus based on this Week 1 matchup against the Patriots.
The buzz around who the leading back in Cincy is has been a hot topic in the fantasy football community. The signing of Moss this offseason got many fantasy managers to jump on board with his potential leading ball-carrier role in this Bengals offense after a very encouraging and productive season with the Indianapolis Colts last year.
Then the buzz began to shift when Brown started to make a handful of splash plays early in training camp. That made the fantasy outlook far more cloudy regarding which back you should select in your fantasy draft.
Well, fantasy managers got one last bit of information regarding this backfield entering the 2024 NFL season when the Bengals released their first official depth chart entering Week 1.
It listed Moss as the starting running back and Brown as the starting kick returner.
#Bengals first official depth chart:
A few notes:
TE1: Sample (11 personnel staple?)
WR3: Iosivas (🚀)
RB1: Moss (still expect split)
KR: Brown, Williams (over Jones?)
Backup NCB: Hill (if Hilton hurt, Dax kicks inside, Turner to outside) pic.twitter.com/aQdnQkfmrd— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) September 3, 2024
Does this give fantasy managers a definitive answer regarding who will be the highest-scoring fantasy back in 2024? No, I don’t believe so.
Most assumed the work from this backfield is likely to be split between these two players. Brown being listed as the starting kick returner isn’t enough to scare me away from believing he’s going to have a significant role in Cincinnati’s offense.
Yet, I do believe the more appealing fantasy role will fall with Moss in 2024.
Moss’ ability to handle bell-cow duties was on display with the Colts last year. He was the RB8 overall in full-PPR formats from Weeks 2-4, with 66 rushing attempts, 280 yards, and two scores. For some context, that topped Brown’s entire rushing production from his rookie year.
Additionally, Moss projects as the better short-yardage option near the goal line. He converted three of his nine carries into scores from inside the 5-yard line last year. For some additional context, Brown’s red-zone rushing production was four carries for -13 yards — which is likely why he didn’t see a single carry inside the 5-yard line in 2023.
In a game that isn’t expected to be high scoring, I would much rather roll with the player who projects as the high-volume ball carrier with a potentially positive game script against a Patriots team that could struggle to score points in 2024.
That is why I would start Moss over Brown in Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Moss and Brown in Week 1
Depending on which way the wind blows, you’ll get a different answer as to who the best play in this backfield will be this season. Could Brown lead in touches but Moss get the touches of value? Will this offense lean heavily on Burrow and leave the backfield without any consistent value?
We are entering the season with more questions than answers, which is why neither of them is a Flex play for me this week against the best per-carry rush defense in the league.
Even if you feel like you have a good read on this offense, will it matter in Week 1? New England allowed a touchdown at the fourth-lowest rate last season and was the sixth-best red-zone unit. Use the first week, and maybe the first month, as a time to learn.
This backfield, in my opinion, is a good bet to produce a top-20 back. We just have to get a feel for who assumes the most advantageous role.