We enter Week 1 with a battle between the Baltimore Ravens and the defending Kansas City Chiefs. There are some fun new names on both sides of the ball in this Thursday Night Football matchup, but running back Justice Hill is a returner to this rivalry.
Hill enters 2024 as Derrick Henry’s backup after showing signs of a promising future last season. However, Hill only recorded 387 rushing yards last and three touchdowns in 2023 and was by no means a juggernaut for Baltimore’s offense.
Fantasy Outlook for Justice Hill vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If you look between the lines, you can see some signs of promise within Hill’s game. According to Trumedia, he ranked 11th-highest in yards per rush last season. He also scored a touchdown, on average, every 28 rushing attempts.
This total ranked Hill 13th overall in the NFL last season, producing in a Ravens RB room looking for a beat of life from anybody willing to step up for the team.
Hill was also productive for Baltimore in the passing game. The team utilized him on the 28th most routes for a running back last year, with 233 total. He turned those routes into 28 receptions, 206 yards, and one touchdown. Hill produced 7.4 yards per reception, ranking him the 13th-best receiving running back in this statistic.
We saw glimmers of hope within his game, and now, this year, we no longer have to worry about undrafted Keaton Mitchell due to injury. However, we do have to focus on Henry destroying Hill’s snap-share opportunities.
We have to explore the game narrative within this matchup to correctly identify if the Ravens’ backup RB could enter our fantasy football lineups and provide quality value.
The Ravens had a lead in all but 19% of their offensive snaps last season. This stat suggests that Henry has a more solid game script than Hill.
We must also look across the field at the other team’s running back to help identify if Hill will be used. If Isiah Pacheco will be utilized to his fullest potential, we are predicting a winning game script for the Chiefs. This would mean that Hill would enter the game to become the pass-catching RB for Lamar Jackson and allow for a higher snap percentage.
When analyzing this game, the Chiefs could be leading the whole game. However, the Ravens are no easy team to knock down, as Vegas agrees with only a +3 attached to the underdogs.
This Vegas line also shows that they believe Henry should stay within the game script for the entire game. Unfortunately, a script that leans into Henry completely fades Hill’s fantasy outlook.
You will have better options within our rankings than Baltimore’s backup against a Kansas City defense that allowed the seventh-fewest amount of fantasy points per game to the position.