We made it. The first week of the season is here, and that means NFL picks and predictions from the PFN panel. We have an internal moneyline pick pool — we are invested in these picks and plenty motivated to offer you the best insight we have.
Within each game, you get our staff picks and my recap. Make it through the entire article, and you’ll get my best ATS/Total pick for each game!
Pro Football Network’s Week 1 Predictions
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Chiefs
- Dallas Robinson: Chiefs
- Jay Morrison: Ravens
- Dakota Randall: Ravens
The Chiefs are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) over the past three seasons in September, while the Ravens are 13-2 ATS (10-5 outright) under Lamar Jackson when filling the underdog role.
Kansas City is without Hollywood Brown, one of their primary offseason acquisitions, while it’s full steam ahead for Baltimore with their new bell cow. Derrick Henry prepares to take on not only the fifth-worst defense in terms of running back yards per carry but the fifth-worst defense in terms of RB ypc that lost their shutdown corner L’Jarius Sneed this offseason.
Betting against Andy Reid and what amounts to be a seven-month bye isn’t the most comfortable feeling, but these Ravens have advanced past the Divisional Round of the playoffs when not winning the division just once since 2000.
I can’t sell you on any one team trying harder than the other, but if I’m getting points in what projects to be a low-scoring environment, I’ll take the team that is more than likely to prioritize the regular season.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Brazil)
Moneyline Picks
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- Soppe: Eagles
- Beasley: Packers
- Robinson: Eagles
- Morrison: Packers
- Randall: Eagles
We are often influenced most by what we last saw. It’s called recency bias, and the sportsbooks are well aware of this. I believe the game could have been made a pick’em and would have done just fine, but instead, the Packers are getting a field goal and will be a popular choice considering how last season ended.
While Jordan Love was busy adding zeros to his future (and now current) contract last winter, the Eagles plummeted. They lost five of six to close the regular season and were handled by the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round of the postseason.
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Philadelphia was a mess, there are no two ways about it. But was Jalen Hurts healthy? I don’t think he was, and I don’t know if he will be this winter, either. But he is right now, and the Eagles thrive this time of year.
Over the past two seasons, Philadelphia is 20-2 in their first 11 games of the season, three games clear of any other team during that stretch.
While Philly has a good feel as to who they are (adding an All-Pro running back to a team that ranks second in rush rate over the past three seasons shouldn’t be difficult), Green Bay has less locked into place. For me, the Packers are like an awkward teenager — they could grow into George Clooney, but they aren’t there yet.
In addition to overhauling the defensive scheme, Green Bay is also welcoming in a new bell cow, but one with efficiency concerns. Matt LaFleur expressed the desire to operate a committee situation in his backfield, but with injuries ravaging Green Bay’s secondary RBs, that might not be an option. That could put a lot on the shoulders of Love, and I’m not sure that’s a path to victory in this matchup.
Over the past two seasons, the Eagles have the second-highest pressure rate when not blitzing. Love was great when feeling the heat last season, but mainly when an extra defender was sent.
Love vs. Pressure
When Blitzed: Ninth in passer rating (ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson)
When Not Blitzed: 15th in passer rating (behind Justin Fields and Gardner Minshew)
Amidst a Love breakout, the Packers failed to cover three of five games to close last regular season, and I think they open the new year at 0-1.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Falcons
- Beasley: Steelers
- Robinson: Falcons
- Morrison: Falcons
- Randall: Steelers
Kirk Cousins was brought into Atlanta to elevate the offensive weapons on this roster, and we might see that impact right out of the gates. Cousins is 20-10-1 ATS over his past 31 games as a favorite by less than four points, a trend I’m willing to take to the bank against a Pittsburgh team that tends to trend up as the season progresses.
2018-23 Steelers
- 40.9% cover rate through Week 4
- 61.3% cover rate in Weeks 5-18
I have this season pegged as the year that ends the historic Mike Tomlin streak, and it all starts this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Bills
- Beasley: Bills
- Robinson: Bills
- Morrison: Bills
- Randall: Bills
Could this be the season in which the Bills take home their first Lombardi Trophy? I think it’s certainly possible for a team that has won four straight divisional titles, but the trends are working away from them to cover this large number.
The league as a whole has been working away from 6+ point favorites (46.2% cover rate over the past two seasons, down from 50.9% from 2016-21), something that I suspect will continue given the depth of talent at the quarterback position.
When Allen is in that spot as a 6+ point favorite, he’s just 20-23-2 ATS. That’s not a must-fade rate by any means, but when it’s juxtaposed to Kyler Murray being 25-15-2 ATS as an underdog, it’s a data point worth considering.
Six of Buffalo’s past nine September games have come in under the projected total. If we see that again in Week 1, the points we are being given only gain in value.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Bears
- Beasley: Bears
- Robinson: Bears
- Morrison: Bears
- Randall: Bears
Have sportsbooks overcorrected? After a stretch in which rookie quarterbacks were 8-12 ATS (overs: 13-7) when facing second-year signal-callers, they are 13-7 ATS in their last 20, with 14 of those games going under the total.
We all know the potential that Caleb Williams brings to the table, and first-year signal-callers (even the best) have a way of being underrated (30-19 ATS when favored over the past three seasons).
My siding with Da Bears, however, has as much to do with the growth they showed on the other side of the ball as anything. Over the final nine weeks of last season:
- Ninth in yards allowed
- Fourth in first downs allowed
- First in interception rate
That’s not bad for a defense that ranked no better than 14th in any of those categories through nine weeks. With Montez Sweat fully up to speed on this system, those gains figure to be here to stay (if not improve further).
The Titans are opening up their offense and may throw a punch or two, but NFL games are a marathon more than a sprint, and I’ll happily side with the team I expect to be more consistent on both sides of the ball.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Bengals
- Beasley: Bengals
- Robinson: Bengals
- Morrison: Bengals
- Randall: Bengals
The emotional gambler will continuously back the teams they like. The sharp gambler will be price-sensitive and admit that any team, literally any team, has a buying point. Which one are you?
If you’re the former, close out and check back for another Week 1 pick tomorrow. If you’re the latter, hold your breath — here we go.
Over the past decade, teams catching more than seven points in the season opener are 11-5 ATS (10-3 when their quarterback has at least two years of NFL experience under his belt, a note worth storing if you think Jacoby Brissett holds onto this job for the short term).
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The window to take advantage of a big number doesn’t last long as betting lines sharpen with time — such underdogs over that stretch are 21-30 ATS (41.2%) in Weeks 2-3.
If we’re going to keep pulling on this thread, Joe Burrow is 0-3 ATS when giving over seven points. Not a large sample, but something I found interesting with rumors swirling that he will still be at less than full strength when this game kicks off.
To cover this number, Cincinnati will need to score with regularity, and while New England has its flaws, they can buckle down when needed on the defensive end (sixth-best defense on third down and inside the red zone).
During Zac Taylor’s time with the Bengals, his offense ranks 26th in pace of play (slow), another damning trend given that covering a big number often requires maximizing possession count.
It’s possible that the Patriots are never competitive in this game and still get this bet to the finish line. Over the past decade, teams trailing by double digits entering the fourth quarter win the final 20 minutes by 1.5 points per game.
That’s obviously not the situation you want to find yourself in, but it’s another out that is possible. This game has a 42-point projection; if New England can get 10 points early and a garbage-time touchdown, they might well get us to the finish line.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Colts
- Beasley: Texans
- Robinson: Texans
- Morrison: Texans
- Randall: Texans
Are the Texans ready to take that next step? Is C.J. Stroud going to take the world by storm and have a Year 2 that resembled that of Patrick Mahomes?
I’m not here to say he won’t, but road favorites are an iffy bet at best in September if you’re willing to label last season as an outlier.
September Home Underdogs
- 2023: 6-10-2 ATS (37.5% cover rate)
- 2013-22: 103-81-2 ATS (56% cover rate)
The Colts are one of two home ‘dogs on the Week 1 slate (the Giants are getting a point with the Vikings coming to town). There’s no denying that sportsbooks have taken a conservative approach in evaluating them, with Anthony Richardson carrying a wide range of outcomes.
This game is expected to be one of the higher-scoring contests of Week 1 (not a bad bet if your book offers it). With that, consistency on the offensive end is going to be required.
Rushing quarterbacks have a way of moving the sticks, and while Stroud checked every box as a rookie that you could possibly ask, I don’t think it was a mistake that Houston mustered “only” 43 points in two games against Indy last season.
In 2023, the Colts ranked 30th in blitz rate. At first blush, I thought that may result in a heightened Stroud projection, but not so much.
Last season, he ranked 28th in completion percentage when not blitzed. Stroud’s processing power was a calling card of his first season (23.6% better than league average in yards per attempt when blitzed), but when defenses sat back in coverage, they had more success.
If you’re chasing plus-money, home underdogs catching less than three points have been basically a coin flip on the moneyline over the past decade (28-29-2).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Dolphins
- Beasley: Dolphins
- Robinson: Dolphins
- Morrison: Dolphins
- Randall: Dolphins
Just because it’s chalky doesn’t (always) make it wrong. This matchup is the third favorite in the “highest-scoring Sunday game” market, and there’s no reason to overthink this.
Last season, the Dolphins ranked third in offensive success rate while checking in second in both play-action rate and yards per pass. They are as good as anyone in the NFL at getting their playmakers in space, and their roster is faster now than it was 12 months ago.
The Jaguars don’t come with the same bells and whistles, but make no mistake about it, they can put points on the board. During the Trevor Lawrence era, they’re a top-10 unit in both pace and percentage of yards that come through the air, two major boxes to check when considering the over for a game with a high total.
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Of course, offensive firepower (both teams were top 10 in number of plays gaining 10+ yards last season) is only half of the equation. Last season, both defenses graded below average in opponent passer rating and red-zone defense.
They struggle to contain your run-of-the-mill offense. Why would a warm-weather game with seven months to prepare be any different for two units that operate with their foot on the gas at all times?
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Saints
- Beasley: Saints
- Robinson: Panthers
- Morrison: Saints
- Randall: Saints
There is one matchup on the board this week that features an offense that was top eight at preventing pressure to their quarterback facing a defense that was bottom eight in generating pressure.
I’m unable to formulate that as a trivia question due to the structure of this article, but yes, it’s Derek Carr and the Saints against the Panthers.
The Saints weren’t at full strength in the first meeting with the Panthers last season, and New Orleans had to ask for extra space on the injury report for their QB when these teams matched up for a second time last year, so I’m not reading too far into the underwhelming numbers of 2023 in this spot.
Instead, I’m focusing on what should be a clean pocket for Carr to operate from. Last season, of 30 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in fantasy points per pass when not pressured and 23rd when feeling the heat. Now that I’ve sold you (maybe) that he can be efficient, let’s address the upside.
Over the past five seasons, on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Carr has a …
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
Carr is 17-12 ATS at home against divisional opponents over the course of his career (overs: 15-14), a drastic improvement from his 14-14 ATS mark on the road against divisional opponents (overs: 7-20).
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Vikings
- Beasley: Giants
- Robinson: Vikings
- Morrison: Vikings
- Randall: Giants
Picking either of these teams to cover feels a little gross to open the season. But with the spread not on a full number, one of these teams will be a perfect 1-0 ATS!
So who’s it going to be? Well, Sam Darnold is 4-10 ATS as a favorite over the course of his career, while Daniel Jones is 26-20 ATS as an underdog. These are two of the blitz-happiest defenses in the NFL, which means this game could be as ugly as you’re thinking.
Last season, New York ranked second in sacks when bringing the heat, while Minnesota ranked 14th. A blitz-heavy team that doesn’t get home at a high rate? That sounds to me like a Danny Dash kind of day more than Danny Dimes, and that’ll work — the Giants are 7-3 ATS when he runs for 60+ yards.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Chargers
- Beasley: Chargers
- Robinson: Chargers
- Morrison: Chargers
- Randall: Chargers
I think the Jim Harbaugh era may have some peaks and valleys this season, but with an entire offseason to focus on a below-average opponent, his time in Los Angeles should get off to a good start.
The Chargers are the best Week 1 ATS team since 2012 (8-2-2), and while I don’t think that stat has much in the way of predictive power, it doesn’t hurt. More impactful is the fact that Justin Herbert is 7-4 ATS at home for his career when facing the division, a stark difference from his 7-13 ATS home record when playing outside of it.
I expect the Bolts to struggle when the other team constantly threatens to score. I’m not sure that’ll be the case in Week 1 against the 25th-ranked offense in points per drive.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Seahawks
- Beasley: Seahawks
- Robinson: Seahawks
- Morrison: Seahawks
- Randall: Seahawks
Geno Smith had one strong season under Dave Canales, but his career has otherwise been underwhelming. Asking him to win by this sort of margin is awfully optimistic against Year 2 Sean Payton, who appears comfortable with the team he has.
Smith is 4-8-1 ATS for his career when starting a game as a favorite by more than a field goal, and this game will certainly close with that being the case. I have the Seahawks projected to win this game by less than a field goal. I actually think there’s a better chance that Denver pulls off the upset outright than fails to cover.
Javonte Williams holds the key. He was phenomenal as a rookie, and I’m of the belief that, now that he is a year removed from being a year removed from the ACL tear, we will see more of that this season.
Seattle was the fifth-worst defense in rush EPA a season ago. If Williams is ripping off consistent gains, Bo Nix should be comfortable enough to get this ticket home.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Cowboys
- Beasley: Browns
- Robinson: Browns
- Morrison: Cowboys
- Randall: Cowboys
This is an interesting game, but I think it might be a reasonably straightforward handicap. Both defenses offer upside, and neither team projects as a strong unit on the ground. This is going to come down to the quarterback position and making the most of scoring chances.
Well, that happens to be a position where the Cowboys should be comfortable. No team traveled inside the opponent’s 20-yard line more consistently last season, and that was the primary weakness of the stout Browns — they were the worst red-zone defense in 2023.
Over the past two seasons, Dallas has been the best team in terms of average points above the spread (+4.46; only two other teams are even at +3). No small accomplishment, given the public attention they get.
I suspect this game comes down to the wire, and I wouldn’t blame you for taking the points. Give me the significant advantage under center to turn scoring drives into seven points instead of three and cash this plus-money ticket.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Commanders
- Beasley: Buccaneers
- Robinson: Commanders
- Morrison: Buccaneers
- Randall: Buccaneers
Is the league ready for Jayden Daniels?
I’m not sold. His athleticism is next-level, and I’ll get to that in a minute, but his take-over spots as a rookie will be the ones in which he has success through the air.
That could be the case to open his career — the Bucs ranked 25th in opponent yards per pass last season, checking in at 29th in terms of creating pressure when not blitzing.
Average starting field position this preseason off of kickoffs: 28.7
Average over the past 5 regular seasons: 25.5
How impactful is 3 yards?
Might we be too low on the players on bad teams?#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/orYDUgcAg9
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 3, 2024
If Daniels is comfortable in the pocket, this game might be over before it starts. His rushing production feels inevitable, and that puts Washington in a position to clear its implied total.
Since 2000, first-round QBs with 20+ rushing yards in their debut have seen their offense average 21.9 ppg. That number jumps to 23.5 if we move the goalposts and require more than 25 rushing yards in that spot.
Washington’s defense is going to slow very few teams this season. While I don’t think they shut down the Bucs, Tampa Bay projects as one of the most likely offenses to take a step back this season. If the Commanders succeed at the level I think they can, a tiny bit of regression on the other sideline is all it’ll take to get us home.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Robinson: Lions
- Morrison: Lions
- Randall: Lions
The Lions won the playoff meeting by a point thanks to winning the first 13.5 minutes by 11 points. They were able to stave off a near-perfect performance from the man for whom they will one day build a statue for (25 of 36 for 367 yards and two touchdowns) by holding the Rams out of the end zone on all three of their red-zone trips (three field goals made from under 30 yards).
We were close to seeing a shootout in that spot, and I have confidence in both of these offenses’ success (especially after you factor in the likely increase in starting field position this season). That said, my confidence for the entirety of a 60-minute game is far greater for the home team in this spot.
Over the past two seasons, with the wrecking ball known as Aaron Donald, the Rams ranked 28th in pressure rate. There’s not much room to get worse, but they could well pull it off — and that’s a problem.
2023 Jared Goff
- Passer rating rank when not pressured: Second
- Passer rating rank when pressured: 22nd
Seven of Goff’s nine highest aDOT (average depth of throw) games last season came after Week 9, as Jameson Williams saw his role expanded, this offense got a little more vertical. Look for that to continue, and if my assumption that he is comfortable in the pocket for most of the night, Detroit is live to be the highest-scoring team in Week 1 and a solid bet to cover this number.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Moneyline Picks
- Soppe: 49ers
- Beasley: 49ers
- Robinson: 49ers
- Morrison: 49ers
- Randall: Jets
The week wraps with a game that isn’t lacking in storylines. This will be a fascinating game to watch, and while my instinct was to auto-back the stable franchise over the one that struggles to stay out of the news for consecutive days — not so fast.
It’s easy to understand why the projected total for this game is so low despite some of fantasy football’s best. The 49ers were the slowest operating offense a season ago, taking a page out of the Aaron Rodgers playbook (GB: slowest offense during Rodgers’ final two seasons in town) in assuming that their opponent can’t match their efficiency.
Cover % for favorites when the total is under 45 and the spread is over 4.0
- 2022-23: 44.5%
- 2016-21: 50.5%
The possession count is going to be held in check, and there are simply too many moving pieces on these offenses — Christian McCaffrey was dinged up for part of camp, Brandon Aiyuk had the contract situation, Mike Williams is going to be limited, etc. — to think that either team puts a ton of points on the board.
Soppe’s NFL Week 1 Best Bets
Where did I land when all was said and done?
- Pick: Ravens +3
- Pick: Eagles -3
- Pick: Falcons -3
- Pick: Cardinals +6
- Pick: Bears -3.5, under 45
- Pick: Patriots +9.5
- Pick: Colts +2.5
- Pick: Jaguars/Dolphins over 49 points
- Pick: Saints -4, Saints over 22.5 points
- Pick: Giants +1.5
- Pick: Chargers -3
- Pick: Broncos +6
- Pick: Cowboys ML
- Pick: Commanders +3, Commanders over 20.5 points
- Pick: Lions -3.5
- Pick: Jets +4.5, under 43