The 2024 NFL season gets underway on Thursday night with a battle between the three-peat-seeking Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
It’s a rematch from the 2023 AFC Championship that is sure to kick off the year on the right foot.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -3 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-155); Ravens (+130) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Arrowhead Stadium
Chiefs vs. Ravens Preview and Prediction
Patrick Mahomes ranked 19th among 35 quarterbacks last season with over 200 attempts in EPA (expected points added) per dropback when facing Cover 6. He also ranked 21st of 35 against Cover 4, despite having the second-most attempts against it last season.
The Ravens ranked in the top 10 in defensive EPA for both of those coverages, using Cover 4 the 10th-most times in the NFL (and Cover 6 the fifth-most).
Despite Hollywood Brown being unavailable for this game, the Chiefs also added Xavier Worthy, who should help stretch the field and attack these coverages.
Defensively, the Chiefs were 25th in the league in defensive rushing EPA. While this would be quite alarming against a team that employs Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens’ offensive line is quite shaky. Baltimore will be relying on Andrew Vorhees and Ben Cleveland to help out Tyler Linderbaum against Chris Jones.
My prediction is that the Chiefs will have success attacking this unknown offensive line with lots of interior pressure from Jones, and they will look to blitz a lot. Jackson averages -2.55 EPA on dropbacks against the Chiefs’ defense when being blitzed and -0.42 EPA on dropbacks when being pressured.
The loss of L’Jarius Sneed and an overall weaker secondary this season shouldn’t impact Kansas City much in this game; the Ravens’ wide receivers are below average, and Trent McDuffie matches up well with Zay Flowers.
The Ravens were among the top in the league defensively last year, doing especially well disguising coverages. With Mike Macdonald out of the picture (now the head coach in Seattle) and the Chiefs’ significantly upgraded WR room, I fully expect Mahomes to be able to take advantage of mismatches and win them this game.
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Jackson has averaged 218.75 yards per game against the Chiefs in his career, and his over/under is set at 219.5.
Since Jackson joined the league, Mahomes has averaged 335.75 yards per game against the Ravens, and his over/under is set at 264.5.
The implied probability on Mahomes’ over is 52.38%, and Jackson’s under is 53.49%.
I would still take the Mahomes over despite there not being a statistically significant difference compared to his average against all teams.
Prediction: Chiefs -3, Chiefs ML, and Under 46.5
Thursday Night Football Picks from PFN’s Other Betting Analysts
David Bearman: Ravens +3, under 47.5
At the end of the season, the Chiefs will likely be standing with the trophy, not the Ravens, but I like Baltimore for this spot.
For one, they’ve had all offseason to stew about losing the AFC title game, a game they absolutely could’ve won. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have historically been great in this spot, with Jackson going 12-1-1 ATS as a dog and covering in six straight primetime games, regardless of favorite or dog. The Ravens have covered in seven of the last eight openers under Harbaugh and were one of the best against the number last season.
Now, the Chiefs are the champs and were victorious in this matchup last year. But they also have been part of the recent trend of defending champs not covering in Week 1. That streak is now three straight, including the Chiefs losing on banner night last year to the Lions.
I also project it to be a low-scoring affair, much like last year’s 17-10 matchup, with both teams limiting the big plays. Yes, both teams are explosive, but we are also talking about two top-5 defenses as well. I think the score will be similar, and I would not be shocked to see Baltimore win.
Kyle Soppe: Ravens +3
The Chiefs are 3-6 ATS over the past three seasons in September while the Ravens are 13-2 ATS (10-5 outright) under Lamar Jackson when filling the underdog role.
Kansas City is without Marquise Brown, one of their primary offseason acquisitions while it’s full steam ahead for Baltimore with their new bellcow. Derrick Henry prepares to take on not only the fifth worst defense in terms of RB yards per carry but the fifth worst defense in terms of RB yards per carry that lost their shutdown corner L’Jarius Snead this offseason.
Soppe: Derrick Henry First TD (+650 at DraftKings)
Did you know that no team in the NFL had the ball for fewer first-quarter minutes last season than the Chiefs? It’s true, and considering that they have a bottom-10 red-zone defense, on average, since Steve Spagnuolo took the reins of this defense, my initial lean was toward the road team.
That “lean” developed into conviction as I dove into the Ravens’ scoring data. In their first season under OC Todd Monken, Baltimore scored the first touchdown in 14 of 17 regular-season games. Moreover, one of those three failures came in a Week 18 loss in which the Ravens rested their regulars.
In nine of the 14 games last season in which the Ravens were responsible for the first TD, the score came on the ground with an average distance of under five yards. That matches up well with Henry being used as a battering ram early in games (20 of 25 rush TDs over the past two seasons have come in the first half), and I’m looking to cash a nice ticket with the first score of the 2024 season!
Brian Blewis: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-120 at DraftKings)
Gus Edwards tied with Raheem Mostert for most carries inside the 5-yard line last season, and he left the Baltimore Ravens in free agency for the Los Angeles Chargers.
His replacement? None other than Derrick Henry himself.
The Ravens signed Henry to a 2-year, $16 million contract this offseason, signaling that the 30-year-old running back should have a prominent role in their offense.
While Henry is coming off his lowest average yards per carry (4.2) last season, he at the very least should be the Edwards replacement near the goal line.
Although Lamar Jackson is the most effective quarterback with his legs in the league, the Ravens don’t utilize him as a runner in the red zone like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts’ teams do.
Last season, Jackson had only five total carries inside the five-yard line, 14 less than Edwards. Now, with the upgrade from Edwards to Henry, I expect the Ravens to lean on Jackson even less in these situations, as they would prefer to preserve their semi-injury-prone quarterback.
Blewis: Ravens +9, Packers +8.5 in a 6-point tease (-120 at DraftKings)
We have two matchups to start the season in which I can’t see either underdog losing by more than a touchdown.
Lets start with the Ravens, who were 3.5-point home favorites that last time these two teams played in the AFC Championship Game. We all know the Chiefs won that game 17-10, but the Ravens actually outgained them by total yards and average yards per play.
The issue for the Ravens, however, was their three turnovers—one inside their own 40-yard line and two in or near the end zone. If not for bad turnover luck, perhaps the Ravens would have advanced to the Super Bowl, and this game is being played in Baltimore, where they are the reigning champions.
While it’s an entirely new season, and the Ravens lost key pieces on both sides of the ball as well as their defensive coordinator, a shift of 6.5 points seems like an awful lot from their last meeting, even factoring in the change in home field advantage.
Rather than taking +3, I figured to pair them with what appears to be an easy teaser leg — Packers +8.5.
This matchup in Brazil features Jordan Love, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the second half of last season, going against a pass defense that ranked bottom-five in dropback EPA allowed in the final six weeks.
While the Eagles underwent many changes on defense this offseason, especially in the secondary, I need to see them before I fully buy into this being a much-improved unit. Also, there could be a learning curve under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and getting the Packers up to +8.5 seems like too many points in a volatile environment—an international game in Week 1.
Jason Katz: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions (-120 at Bet365)
Rashee Rice started to become more integrated into the Chiefs’ offense around Week 12 last season. From that point forward, he caught at least six balls in eight of his last 10 games, including the playoffs. Rice is Patrick Mahomes’ clear WR1. With no Hollywood Brown and the team looking to keep Travis Kelce fresh, Rice should be treated like the alpha WR1 he is. This is a volume play.