Betting on NFL win totals is a bit tricky since we’re operating without a full picture. We have no way of knowing if the team we like in September will be the version that is on the field in November, but neither do the sportsbooks.
That’s why I like to mold player/team takes with historic trends when building out my futures card. With that in mind, here are the bets I’ve locked in, by way of our PFN Analytics, as the season fast approaches.
What Are the Current NFL Win Totals for 2024?
- Arizona Cardinals 6.5
Over -150; Under +125 - Atlanta Falcons 9.5
Over -150; Under +125 - Baltimore Ravens 10.5
Over -120; Under +100 - Buffalo Bills 9.5
Over -145; Under +120 - Carolina Panthers 5.5
Over -115; Under -105 - Chicago Bears 9.5
Over +120; Under -150 - Cincinnati Bengals 10.5
Over -125; Under +100 - Cleveland Browns 8.5
Over -135; Under +115 - Dallas Cowboys 9.5
Over -145; Under +120 - Detroit Lions 10.5
Over -135; Under +110 - Denver Broncos 5.5
Over -140; Under +120 - Green Bay Packers 9.5
Over -135; Under +115 - Houston Texans 9.5
Over -140; Under +120 - Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Over +110; Under -130 - Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5
Over -120; Under +100 - Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
Over -115; Under -105 - Las Vegas Raiders 6.5
Over -130; Under +110 - Los Angeles Chargers 8.5
Over -155; Under +130 - Los Angeles Rams 8.5
Over -160; Under +135 - Miami Dolphins 9.5
Over -135; Under +115 - Minnesota Vikings 6.5
Over -140; Under +120 - New England Patriots 4.5
Over -135; Under +110 - New Orleans Saints 7.5
Over -120; Under +100 - New York Giants 6.5
Over +115; Under -135 - New York Jets 10.5
Over +115; Under -145 - Philadelphia Eagles 10.5
Over -130; Under +110 - Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5
Over -155; Under +125 - San Francisco 49ers 11.5
Over +125; Under -145 - Seattle Seahawks 7.5
Over -150; Under +130 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5
Over -135; Under +115 - Tennessee Titans 6.5
Over +110; Under -135 - Washington Commanders 6.5
Over -130; Under +110
Top Picks for NFL Win Totals Ahead of Week 1
Houston Texans Under 9.5 Wins
- Projection: 9.1 wins
The Texans are the popular team to back coming into the season, and that makes plenty of sense…but I’m comfortable in fading the public in this spot.
Houston has two games most would label as “layups,” and while I’m not projecting them to lose to either the Vikings or Patriots, it should be noted that both games come on the road against a team that played the week prior at home.
The Texans would need to reach double figures in wins to cost us this ticket, and when aiming that high, I typically look to avoid a reasonable losing streak. That’s obviously not rocket science, but can Houston do that?
- Weeks 9-11: at NYJ, vs. DET, at DAL
- Weeks 15-17: vs. MIA, at KC, vs. BAL
Even if the Texans were to avoid a “losing streak,” they could easily go 2-4 across these games, which would mean an 8-3 record otherwise at minimum. Now, they could do that, but with all of their divisional games left, not to mention three other games against teams that DraftKings has marked as favorites to make the postseason, I have a hard time seeing that happen.
I also love the late bye when fading a team. Fatigue has a way of setting in and leading to the giving away of a game. In the previous season, the Bills struggled before their late bye week, losing three out of four games after starting 5-3. In 2021, both the Packers (2-2 before the bye week after starting 7-1) and the Titans (0-2 before the bye after starting 8-2) had a tough time leading up to their late byes.
Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 Wins
- Projection: 8.8 wins
If I’m going to go under on the favorite in a division, I better be assigning those vacated wins somewhere!
I like the potential for the Colts to close with a bang (Patriots-Broncos-Titans-Giants-Jaguars), which should help us get to the finish line, even if the beginning of the season isn’t anything special. A 2-2 September would be a win, and I think that’s all we need.
Any positive bet on the 2024 Colts boils down to Anthony Richardson. This isn’t the NBA, where a single player makes all the difference. But Richardson’s unique skill set is valuable, especially with this team tailored around his strengths. That’s a bet I’m willing to make, given his stature and the track record of such a QB staying on the field.
Speaking of Richardson’s physical makeup, Cam Newton and Josh Allen are the names that most often get mentioned. What do those two have in common?
Overachieving.
Career Cover Rate as an Underdog (regular season)
- Cam Newton:58.7%
- Josh Allen: 65.4%
I think we are again seeing the sportsbooks underrate the impact of a rare player like this, and I have no problem in investing accordingly.
Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 Wins
- Projection: 8.3 wins
For a team that plays more close games than anyone on the planet (five more games decided by three or fewer points over the past five seasons than any other team), does it stand to reason that it might take time to welcome in a new coach/system?
Los Angeles doesn’t get that luxury. For the 2024 Bolts to go over their win total, they’re going to have to take full advantage of a Raiders-Panthers-Steelers stretch to open.
Looking down the schedule further, they have a tough go of it. Not only do the Chargers have four different instances in which they play consecutive road games, they also have a Week 5 bye. Is it possible that they run out of gas as a result of the early off week and fail to take full advantage of a favorable closing run (Broncos-Patriots-Raiders)?
Los Angeles plays what could be six playoff teams in a seven-game stretch during the meat of their schedule. If you’re pessimistic that the Chargers fly out of the gates or finish their season in strong form, my win total might be too high.
Denver Broncos Over 5.5 Wins
- Projection: 6.4 wins
Bo Nix isn’t the flashiest rookie in this class, and that is reflected in a win total that checks in a bit low.
Based on lookahead lines, the Broncos have 10 games this season with a spread under four points. Last season was abbrational in the sense that, in those games, the favorite won 68.5% of the time. From 2019-22, these contests were essentially coin-toss situations, with the favorite winning just 52.8% of the time.
If the coin lands on Denver 47.2% of the time, we already have 4-5 wins penciled in. They also have two games that currently have exactly a four-point spread, landing just outside of the range mentioned above but do carry decent win equity (I have them projected to split those games).
Denver opens the season as a six-point underdog in Seattle, a game in which my numbers suggest is much closer than that (Seahawks by 1.3 points). I only play future bets when I believe I have multiple outs, and this is one of those situations.
The Broncos could win six of those sub-four-point spread games OR take one (or both!) of those four-point spread games OR open the season with a win.
I’ll take my chances. The home-field advantage is real at altitude (Denver is 7.5 games better at home than on the road over the past five seasons).
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 7.5 Wins
- Projection: 6.7 wins
From a narrative standpoint, this total is an easy over.
“Mike Tomlin”
I get it, but it should be alarming that the line is this low, even with the most widely known fact being that “he’s never had a losing season.” That said, I have a trend I’d rather invest in.
Part of the Tomlin genius is his ability to adapt. Few teams have to truly pivot in the early going, thus giving the Steelers the ability to overachieve later than sooner.
2018-23 Steelers
- 40.9% cover rate through Week 4
- 61.3% cover rate in Weeks 5-18
Without a schedule in our hands, I’d back that trend and trust Tomlin to get Pittsburgh to at least eight wins. Fortunately, we have access to a schedule, and it runs out about as poorly as possible for a team that looks to gain an edge with time.
How many wins after playing at Washington in Week 10?
- Week 11 vs. BAL
- Week 12 at CLE
- Week 13 at CIN
- Week 14 vs. CLE
- Week 15 at PHI
- Week 16 at BAL
- Week 17 vs. KC
- Week 18 vs. CIN
I don’t think they go winless during this stretch, but multiple wins looks like an uphill battle, meaning they’d have to open the season 6-3. I’m happy to bet against that — DraftKings has them scoring and allowing the exact same number of points through Week 7.
The run ends this season.
New York Giants Under 6.5 Wins
- Projection: 4.8 wins
The Giants came in just under this number a season ago, a year in which they recorded their most wins in games decided by three points or less since 2016 and pulled off a pair of upsets against playoff teams.
Like the Chargers, this is a below-average team that needs to peak early, but can they? The next point they score in the first half of a Week 1 game under Brian Daboll will be the first, so excuse me if I’m skeptical about a team that is going to have to win one, if not both, of its first two games this season to turn this ticket into a loser (vs. MIN, at WAS).
I have New York losing both of those first two games over 35% of the time. If that happens, I’m considering this ticket a winner. Even if it doesn’t, I think it’s possible the Giants won’t win a game after their Week 11 bye. And with this team losing a home game to Germany, seven wins appears to be more of a ceiling than a realistic expectation.