There are always multiple surprise teams that make the NFL playoffs every season. With so much parity in the league, there are bound to be more surprise teams to make the playoffs this season.
Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor has six new playoff teams projected for the 2024 season. Even as playoff perennials like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers project to play in mid-January once again, newcomers will also make up the 14-team field on the road to Super Bowl 59.
Kansas City is projected to reclaim the No. 1 seed in the AFC, their third in the last seven seasons. What else did PFN’s Playoff Predictor reveal about this upcoming season, including who claims the NFC’s top seed? From final division standings to playoff seeds, here are its 2024 NFL season predictions.
Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the AFC
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills (12-5)
- Miami Dolphins (11-6)
- New York Jets (10-7)
- New England Patriots (6-11)
Aaron Rodgers returning to the Jets makes them a playoff team for the first time in 14 years, ending the longest active NFL drought without a playoff appearance.
But there are still two teams in front of the Jets that will battle for the AFC East title. The Bills and Dolphins battled all the way to the 272nd game of the regular season in 2023 for supremacy in the AFC East, with Buffalo beating Miami on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 to win the division by virtue of the season sweep.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor projects the AFC East to come down to the Bills and Dolphins again in 2024. But once again — and for the fifth straight season — Buffalo will win the AFC East, with Miami finishing one game behind and settling for a Wild Card spot.
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
- Cincinnati (12-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)
- Cleveland Browns (6-11)
Joe Burrow returning is enough to give the Bengals three more wins than a year ago, and a 12-5 record gets them back to the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. However, the addition of running back Derrick Henry in Baltimore is enough to keep the Ravens atop the AFC North at 13-4 for the second straight season.
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Another notable projection is the Steelers finishing 7-10. Mike Tomlin is going into his 18th season as Pittsburgh’s head coach and has never had a losing season. That changes this season, with the potential for chaos at quarterback and an offense with multiple deficiencies being the reason for the first sub-.500 season in Pittsburgh since 2003.
AFC South
- Indianapolis Colts (10-7)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
- Houston Texans (8-9)
- Tennessee Titans (6-11)
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson remains one of the biggest mysteries going into 2024. Who is he, exactly? Is he accurate enough to play quarterback in the NFL? Several questions remain about Richardson after he only played and started in four games last year.
Nevertheless, PFN’s Playoff Predictor projects the Colts to win the AFC South at 10-7, their first division title in 10 years. Richardson would be a big reason why Indianapolis wins the division, assuming he stays healthy this season. Then again, the Colts do have Joe Flacco as their backup. In 2023, Flacco came off the couch (literally) to take the Browns to the playoffs.
Indianapolis is the only AFC South team to make the playoffs despite Jacksonville finishing with a winning record for a third straight season. Houston takes a step back and finishes below .500, despite adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to their offense and Danielle Hunter to the defense this offseason.
AFC West
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-9)
- Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
- Denver Broncos (3-14)
Forget about the Chiefs winning three Super Bowls in the last five seasons; they’ve won eight straight AFC West titles.
That’s why Kansas City is a current dynasty. Winning eight straight division titles gives them, more often than not, a favorable road to the Super Bowl, where they’ve won three of their last four outings.
Despite several changes made by the other three AFC West teams this offseason, the Chiefs are projected to run away with the division at 14-3. That’s a five-game gap between them and the Chargers and Raiders.
Speaking of which, Los Angeles is projected to finish just a tick under .500 in Jim Harbaugh’s first season as head coach. But that could set a foundation and create momentum going into 2025. The Raiders, in their first season with Antonio Pierce as their full-time HC, are projected to finish at 8-9 for a second straight season.
Denver doesn’t have a new head coach, but they do have a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. Despite entering with 61 college starts and having Sean Payton at the helm, the Broncos are projected to finish with the worst record in the NFL in 2024.
Projecting the AFC Playoff Picture
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Indianapolis Colts
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets
After only hosting one playoff game in 2023, Arrowhead Stadium will reestablish itself as the venue where the road to Super Bowl 59 runs through for the AFC in 2024.
Three division winners from last year are projected to repeat, but the seeds are shuffled around. Baltimore and Buffalo each drop a seed to No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, while Kansas City leapfrogs both of them to No. 1.
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As a Wild Card, Cincinnati would travel to Indianapolis, despite having a better record than the Colts.
Miami and Buffalo project to meet for a third time in 2024. It’s the third straight season the Dolphins are going on the road for Wild Card Weekend — to a cold-weather city, no less. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have yet to prove they can win in cold-weather cities against teams a tier above them.
The Jets facing the Ravens would be a really good matchup on Wild Card Weekend. Both teams are extremely physical on defense, which could make this a low-scoring game and exactly how playoff football should be.
Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the NFC
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (11-6)
- Washington Commanders (6-11)
- New York Giants (4-13)
Once again, the NFC East will feature Philadelphia and Dallas at the top. But for the 20th straight season, there won’t be a repeat NFC East champion. The Eagles, after losing five of six to end the 2023 regular season, will finish at 14-3 for the second time in three seasons.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor still projects Dallas to make the playoffs at 11-6, despite losing running back Tony Pollard in free agency this offseason. As always with the Cowboys, though, it’s what they do in the playoffs that will ultimately define their season.
Led by rookie quarterback and No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels, the Commanders will finish with two more wins in 2024 at 6-11 than they did a year ago. That projection is much more promising than Daniel Jones and the Giants, who the predictor has at 4-13. That could make for a long and pivotal offseason for the Giants.
NFC North
- Chicago Bears (10-7)
- Detroit Lions (9-8)
- Green Bay Packers (7-10)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
This may be the most surprising projection, with the Bears winning the NFC North. But it’s not just No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams who makes Chicago an intriguing dark-horse contender.
But what’s more of a surprising projection is the Lions and Packers taking steps back this season. Even though Detroit still projects to be a playoff team, they’re only a seventh seed. That means they barely get in just a year after leading the 49ers 24-7 at halftime in the NFC Championship Game.
And after Green Bay upset Dallas and nearly beat San Francisco in last year’s Divisional Round, they’re projected to finish with the same 7-10 record as Sam Darnold and the Vikings in 2024.
NFC South
- Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
- Carolina Panthers (6-11)
- New Orleans Saints (5-12)
After accumulating all the talent the Falcons have at their offensive skill positions, Kirk Cousins will finally be the quarterback that gets Atlanta to the playoffs and win the NFC South. Cousins helped make Washington and Minnesota perennial playoff contenders, and he’s projected to do the same for Atlanta in 2024.
The Buccaneers are projected to finish 8-9 this season, but there won’t be a playoff appearance in spite of it this time like there was when they finished with the same record in 2022. That will end Tampa Bay’s run of four straight seasons with a playoff appearance and three straight with an NFC South title.
Meanwhile, Carolina is projected to triple its win total from a year ago with their new roster additions and first-year head coach Dave Canales. They’re projected to improve so much that they won’t even finish in last place. The division cellar belongs to the Saints, which could put head coach Dennis Allen firmly on the hot seat come early January.
NFC West
- San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
- Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
- Los Angeles Rams (7-10)
- Arizona Cardinals (6-11)
The 49ers have run away with the NFC West the past two seasons, but PFN’s Playoff Predictor projects a much closer race in 2024. San Francisco will still win it at 10-7, but Seattle projects to finish close behind at 9-8.
Despite an impressive bounce-back season in 2023, the Rams are projected to take a step back this season at 7-10. That could raise questions about the futures of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in Los Angeles. Even more jarring about the projected 7-10 finish is that it’s just one game above the 6-11 Cardinals, who are still kind of in a rebuild entering this season.
Projecting the NFC Playoff Picture
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Chicago Bears
- San Francisco 49ers
- Atlanta Falcons
- Dallas Cowboys
- Detroit Lions
- Seattle Seahawks
The NFC is getting stronger. Sure, it’s still a wide-open conference, but it’s going to be tougher than it has been in a long time to win the conference.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor has three new teams in the NFC playoffs. The most notable of those new teams is the Bears, with the No. 2 seed.
But consider that the 2-7 seeds are all projected to have 9-11 wins. That means the No. 1 seeded Eagles project to finish three wins above the next-highest team.
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Philadelphia has had a great offseason with free agent additions and contract extensions, but they’re coming off a season where, including the playoffs, they lost six of their last seven games. Nonetheless, a big bounce-back season is coming.
A rematch of the NFC Championship Game this past January highlights the projected Wild Card matchups this season. The Lions had the 49ers on the ropes last year, and they know they can beat the reigning NFC champions.
Seahawks-Bears would be the second time in three weeks the two teams would match up in Chicago, with Seattle and Chicago playing on Thursday Night Football in the Windy City in Week 17. Cowboys-Falcons would be a playoff matchup for the first time in 44 seasons.