Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Sunday’s and Monday’s Matchups

You’ve put together a powerhouse team, now what?

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try – @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready – this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Falcons -3
• Total: 41
• Steelers implied points: 19
• Falcons implied points: 22

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Would you believe me if I told you that, of all of the featured games this week, this is the one that features the two best quarterbacks who paid off best, on a per-pass attempt basis, against pressure last year?

It’s true. Both are obviously on different teams now, but the point remains that these two wily veterans can still find holes in defenses.

Wilson was conservative in these spots (13.1% fewer attempts downfield than league average when pressured), but that has the potential to keep him as a viable QB2/Superflex option because it elevates his floor.

There’s some upside layered into his profile given the soft deep touch he has showcased throughout his career and the physical gifts of George Pickens. I’m not ranking Wilson as a top-15 signal-caller this week, but if you squint hard enough, a vintage performance is within the range of realistic outcomes.

Kirk Cousins: In his Atlanta debut, I have Cousins pegged as QB16, though he is smack dab in the middle of a tier that extends up to QB11, making him a viable DFS option if ownership projections have him as a contrarian play.

His aDOT has dipped in consecutive seasons. While a new team could reverse that trend, I’m not sold that it will be necessary for him to produce viable numbers this week against a Steelers defense that allowed the seventh-most yards per reception after the catch last season.

2023 Pass Rate Over Expectation:

• Vikings: sixth
• Falcons: 32nd

It’s safe to project the 2024 Falcons to rank somewhere in the middle third of the league with his weekly upside relying on this team trending closer to last season’s Vikings. It wouldn’t shock me if this unit gets to the top 10 in pass rate, but it’ll require time and comfort.

Pittsburgh ranked 10th in blitz rate and opponent passer rating a season ago. It is a viable defense that figures to give Cousins problems (since 2022: second in completion percentage when not blitzed, 22nd when blitzed) out of the gate.

Anything can happen, but I expect to be relatively off of Cousins for the first month of the season before exploring DFS options in October, when the Falcons face the Bucs (twice), Panthers, and Seahawks.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring during the preseason, and while he looks set to be playing, I’m not using Harris in Week 1 if I can avoid it.

The story behind Harris has been pretty simple through three seasons – limited efficiency and a reliance on volume and touchdowns. The volume could remain, especially should Warren be a surprise inactive, but this profiles as an empty-calorie situation.

Last season, the Falcons (first in defensive rush EPA on first down) owned the fourth-best red-zone defense and coughed up just five scores on 390 running back carries; not only the lowest rate in the NFL but the lowest by an NFC team over the past decade.

A Harris manager is swimming upstream if these rates prove stable. He averaged just 6.7 PPR points per game a season ago when held out of the end zone.

Toss in the fact that this Atlanta offense should stay on the field more than it did in 2023 (25th in time of possession) now that Cousins is under center, and we could be looking at a low drive count for the Steelers.

If you have the luxury, I’d rather count on players like David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert – running backs on potent offenses with a well-defined red-zone role.

Jaylen Warren: The hamstring injury during the second week of the preseason wasn’t as serious as we had feared, and Warren seems to be in a good health spot entering this game.

On the bright side, we saw his snap share rise from 31.7% in 2022 to 48.5% last season, and it’s reasonable to think that Warren eventually leads this backfield in opportunities.

Key word: Eventually.

The injury set that timeline back a bit, and considering he has never played the majority of snaps in a September game (only one career September game with even 8.5 PPR points), Warren is not of interest to me this week. For reference, 10 PPR points were needed to be on the Flex radar last season.

I wouldn’t punt on Warren if this week is discouraging. At the very least, if he can separate himself in this passing game, he could see his highest usage games come late in the season when the Steelers close the fantasy season with games against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs – spots where the game script is likely to favor his skill set.

Bijan Robinson: The only decision to be made with Robinson is if I rank him as the top overall running back on the slate this week – and I did! The Steelers gave up at least 22 PPR points to a running back on five different occasions last season, and of the seven running backs that saw elite usage against them (20+ touches), the majority exceeded fantasy expectations by over 12%.

I’ll be watching this game to confirm that Robinson’s usage matches with the preseason suggestions. If it is, he’s a threat to lead skill position players in scoring this season.

Buckle up!

Tyler Allgeier: I have some shares of Allgeier with the thought that he could potentially carve out a nice niche by the time bye weeks come about, but banking on standalone value out of the gate is far too optimistic for me.

Just once during the second half of last season did Allgeier reach a 36% snap share. And with talks of Robinson being used in a Christian McCaffrey-like manner, it’s tough to project much change on that front.

The contingent value keeps Allgeier on your roster, but there’s no reason to get cute to open the season against 2023’s ninth-best defense in terms of rushing success rate.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens: This game could very well be a perfect snapshot of what 2024 as a whole looks like.

Pickens is going to earn targets at bulk in an offense that is void of pass-catching options, and he’s paid off elite usage up to this point in his career.

Career when seeing 8+ targets:

• 19.3 PPR PPG
• 32.3% fantasy production over expectation

There will certainly be some peaks and valleys this year – and in this game. The Falcons were a top-10 defense in terms of deep pass yards per attempt and completion percentage, but well below average on those throws in passer rating and TD rate.

In short, Atlanta defends the deep ball well, but when they get gashed, it’s in a big way.

Pickens is a low-end WR2 for me this week with the thought being that, with enough bites at the apple, he makes at least one splash play to justify being in starting lineups.

I expect Pittsburgh’s WR1 to be a headache this season, and that is why I don’t have a ton of shares. Still, I do think he can give managers a strong week to open the season.

Drake London: This new-look offense figures to feature London in a big way, though it might take some time for him to move into the WR1 conversation. The Steelers were the fifth-best red-zone defense in 2023, and if Robinson is truly the focal point of the offense, that puts London’s scoring equity in question to a degree.

That’s about it when it comes to my concerns. London is a top-20 option for me this week with the thought being that if he can sustain his volume (7+ targets in 10 games last season), the increased quality of those looks will carry him to strong numbers.

I want to see a nice connection with Cousins before going all-in on London, but I anticipate this duo developing chemistry in short order. That’ll result in London pushing into my top 15 at the position before long.

Darnell Mooney: I’m open to the idea of Mooney providing bye week value at some point this season, but with him catching just 71 passes over the past two years (across 27 games), and with three high-usage players ahead of him in Atlanta’s offense, I’m very much going to need to see it before betting on it.

I wouldn’t worry about rostering him now. I would, however, keep an eye on his usage given how positive the Falcons’ schedule is to end the fantasy season:

• Week 13 vs. Chargers
• Week 14 at Vikings
• Week 15 at Raiders
• Week 16 vs. Giants
• Week 17 at Commanders

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: I’m cautiously optimistic about Freiermuth. With just four touchdown catches over the past two seasons, the former Nittany Lion hasn’t cashed in on the promise he showed as a rookie when he caught seven scores. But with Diontae Johnson now a Panther, there are plenty of targets available for a career year to occur.

When running 30+ routes, Freiermuth has averaged 11 PPR points per game. Freiermuth reached double figures in 10 of those 12 games with 30+ routes run. In games with fewer than 30 routes run, he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game.

I can’t say with certainty that Freiermuth will be unleashed in that manner this season, but it’s within the range of outcomes, and that is why he’s in my top 15.

There is only so much upward mobility at tight end due to the increase in depth, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Freiermuth proves to be a very viable option for those who punted on the position.

Kyle Pitts: Is this the year? We have four months to figure that out, but the Steelers holding opponents to the second-lowest red-zone completion percentage certainly isn’t ideal.

That said, even in a vanilla offense, we’ve seen Pitts’ athletic profile be used downfield in a significant way, and that is how you beat Pittsburgh, which allowed the seventh-highest deep completion percentage in 2023.

Due to the price you paid on draft day, you’re not afforded the time to wait and see like someone considering Freiermuth.

Pitts is my TE9 this week, and that makes him a starter in most formats. I could see him climbing as high as TE7 as soon as next week (MNF at Philadelphia) if he checks the usage boxes I need to see in Cousins’ debut.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -6
• Total: 48
• Cardinals implied points: 21
• Bills implied points: 27

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: I’m very excited about Murray’s ceiling this season, but I only have him as a fringe QB1 this week due to some matchup concerns as well as the time it could take for him to maximize the weapons at his disposal.

Splash plays are going to be Murray’s hallmark in 2024. Whether they are chunk runs or big gains through the air, Murray is unlikely to post a big fantasy number based on raw volume, but rather his unique ability for quick strikes. I anticipate we see plenty of that upside as the season progresses, but probably not to open the year.

2023 Buffalo Bills:

• Eighth-highest non-blitz pressure rate
• Fourth-lowest opponent deep pass TD rate
• Fewest yards allowed per deep completion

That profile doesn’t play favorably when it comes to evaluating Murray’s range of outcomes. I said it earlier about the big plays, but allow me to put some context to it.

In Murray’s 11 best fantasy games of his career, 41.8% of passing fantasy points came on deep passes (career: 28.2%), and 35.9% of his fantasy points came on the ground (career: 29.3%).

Be patient. The Cards get the Rams, Lions, and Commanders after this week. You’re going to be happy to have Murray on your roster before long.

For Week 1, however, I have him checking in just behind the two dynamic rookie quarterbacks and as my QB9.

Josh Allen: No surprise here – Allen was a Tier-1 quarterback during the draft process, and he profiles as such this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the highest deep completion percentage (55.8%, NFL average: 43.4%) and the second-most yards per drive (34.8).

Joe Brady’s offense revolved around Allen last season, and while I expect the new pieces to need time to gel, facing a defense with limited talent and the league’s lowest blitz rate a season ago should help mask any learning curve in this matchup.

Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in six of his past seven September games and is averaging 28.2 PPG in his last nine September victories. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite this week.

Running Backs

James Conner: Conner wasn’t a sexy pick during the draft process this summer because he is a veteran and the passing game in Arizona got plenty of steam. You, the savvy manager, took advantage of the market to get a nice price. Well done!

I think your sharp approach is rewarded right out of the gates against a Bills defense that allowed the third-most yards per carry to running backs after contact in 2023.

The age curve could catch up to Conner as this season wears on, but he is as healthy as he’ll be at any point this season, and that’s an appealing profile for the RB who led the league in carries of 20+ yards last season (11).

Conner is flirting with RB1 status this week for me and should be locked in across the board, no matter your league roster requirements.

Trey Benson: Conner played north of 58% of the offensive snaps in 10 of his 13 games last season, reaching two-thirds on six occasions. I’m not against the idea of holding Benson as a handcuff behind a fragile back in a potentially explosive offense, but standalone value is a long shot. I certainly wouldn’t be banking on it in Week 1 with a healthy Conner in front of him.

James Cook: By success rate, the Cardinals were the worst running back defense in the league last season, something their 4.6 yards per carry against (second-worst mark) supports.

I’m an optimist at heart, and maybe that is why I have a different view on Cook than the rest of the industry (I have a standing bet with Derek Tate that Cook will outscore Josh Jacobs).

Instead of focusing on some of the scoring and short-yardage concerns, how about we look at his usage and production under Brady?

Think about it this way: Would you rather have proven talent and hope to run hot with scoring, or have the scoring role and hope to run hot on talent?

It’s not close for me – running hot on talent doesn’t happen much, but a player can fall into positive touchdown variance.

MORE: Try PFN’s Free Fantasy Trade Analyzer

In 2023, Cook had five games with 20+ touches, and four of them came after Brady took over the controls of this offense. Dig deeper and you’ll notice that Cook’s two most efficient games in terms of PPR points over expectation came in the Brady era, too.

I have Buffalo’s RB1 ranked in the same tier as Conner, and thus a lineup staple (maybe even a DFS piece if the field is going elsewhere).

Ray Davis: We get a “show me” week out of the gates with Davis and how he is used.

Buffalo is heavily favored to win this game, and Arizona was a bottom-10 red-zone defense in 2023, making this, in theory, the exact spot we want to feel good about plugging Davis in as a Flex down the road.

That’s the key – “down the road.”

As injuries and byes come into the picture, this pseudo-goal line vulture role stands to hold value, but I’d very much caution against assuming as much.

I think there’s more than just contingent value potential in Davis’ profile, but I need to see proof of concept (probably multiple times), before he gets lineup consideration, even in deeper and/or DFS formats.

Wide Receivers

Marvin Harrison Jr.: He’s a rookie, I get it. We haven’t seen him beat professionals yet, and I understand that causes some hesitancy.

Relax.

No matter where you stand on rookie receivers, can we not agree that both Harrison and New York’s Malik Nabers should walk into high-volume roles?

Over the past five seasons, a first-round receiver has seen 7+ targets in his first NFL start 11 times:

• 18.6 PPR PPG
• 29.3% target share
• +12.8% production over expectation

The Bills allowed the third-highest end-zone completion percentage last season at 44.8% (the NFL average was 35%), and I fully expect Harrison to be featured in close.

You drafted this kid as your WR1, and I think you see immediate returns on that investment.

Michael Wilson: Wilson’s size profile will have me buying in when the situation is just right, but I need some time to determine what type of matchup profiles as such.

Wilson is facing the defense that allowed just 17 completions of 25+ yards a season ago, easily the top prevention unit in the league. Every other defense allowed at least 22 such plays in 2023.

I think Wilson can assume a valuable role, and that warrants a roster spot, though we have to admit that the target ceiling isn’t high. Thus we must be patient.

Curtis Samuel: The veteran receiver suffered a turf toe injury in mid-August and was immediately labeled as “week-to-week,” bringing his Week 1 status into question.

Samuel turned 28 this offseason and only has one 700-yard season on his resume, though it did come with Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers.

For now, Samuel is a stash because of the uncertainty of target distribution in this above-average offense, but I have his ceiling ranked third among the trio of Bills vying for targets. Being less than 100% isn’t going to change that stance.

Khalil Shakir: In theory, the Shakir case is simple – he was insanely efficient in a small sample size and now he is being asked to do more.

My initial reaction was to use Shakir’s 2023 stat line as a reason to watch him this season. But am I giving him enough credit?

Here are the top receiver seasons over the past decade by players standing at least 6’0” before turning 25, in terms of production over expectation (minimum 40 targets):

• A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6% – current peak finish: WR7
• Shakir (2023:): +50.7%
• Martavis Bryant (2014): +46.1% – current peak finish: WR17
• JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR9
• Mike Williams (2018): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR13
• Will Fuller V (2018): +39.6% – current peak finish: WR8
• Nico Collins (2023): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR7
• Ja’Marr Chase (2021): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR5

That paints a pretty optimistic picture and we could get a glimpse of that this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-highest slot TD rate last season. For reference, Shakir had a 67.2% slot usage last year.

I’m not ready to assume greatness or anything like that after a strong 45-target 2023, but there is a positive track record for this sort of resume, and that means keeping a close eye on Shakir as the structure of this offense comes into focus.

Keon Coleman: We don’t know exactly what the target hierarchy will look like in Buffalo, but Coleman figures to be in the middle of things given the team used a second-round pick on him after punting away its top two receivers this offseason.

While Shakir and Samuel project more as the conservative pieces in this offense, the 6’3” Coleman owns a catch radius that Allen will certainly explore in valuable spots. The Cardinals allowed 15.9 yards per deep pass attempt last season, a rate that is hard to grapple with. It was 16.9% worse than any other unit in 2023, and the second-worst mark over the past decade.

We will learn together where Allen is most comfortable, but Coleman is my preferred option in Week 1 and in this matchup. He was able to sneak into my top 40 at the position despite a lack of clarity regarding his role.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Arizona’s standout had a touchdown or five-plus catches in eight straight games to close last season. While the volume of looks might dip a little bit with the presence of Harrison, the level of defensive attention likely will, too.

You drafted McBride as a weekly lineup lock and he deserves that title. At worst, he is the secondary target earner in an offense that we all like and in front of a defense that can’t stop anyone.

This game has two of the top-five tight ends for the week in my rankings.

Dalton Kincaid: If there is a tight end who is going to jump up a tier from where he was drafted to where he finishes this season, Kincaid would be my pick, and Week 1 could well prove to be a good example of why.

With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in town, is it not safe to pencil in Kincaid for an increase in route volume? As a rookie:

• Eight games with his highest route counts: 6.3 catches per game
• Eight games with his lowest route counts: 2.9 catches per game

There is no denying the opportunity that has presented itself for Kincaid, and the Cardinals don’t exactly profile as the type of defense that will stand in the way.

Last season, there were six instances in which a starter was targeted on at least 30% of his routes against Arizona, a rate that would land Kincaid’s projection among the very best in the game this week.

Included in that opponent list are alpha receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as a highly involved tight end in David Njoku.

Kincaid enters 2024 as Buffalo’s top target, and he should showcase his elite potential in this spot. He’s a strong DFS option and could well be the reason you earn a Week 1 win in your redraft league. I prefer Kincaid to Travis Kelce and have him labeled as TE2 for the week.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

• Spread: Bears -4.5
• Total: 45.5
• Titans implied points: 20.5
• Bears implied points: 25

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: We know that Levis was awfully uneven as a rookie and we are all expecting more of the same in Year 2. The Titans spent the offseason positioning themselves to throw more in 2024 and I’m buying it – but that doesn’t mean he is going to matter in Week 1 or on any sort of consistent basis in anything but Superflex leagues.

I’m sure he will suck me in for some DFS exposure at some point, but not this week. Not even close. DeAndre Hopkins is expected to be active, although I’m not sure he’ll be at full strength, and when you combine that with a Chicago defense that was better than good down the stretch of last season (top-3 in opponent passer rating, EPA, and red-zone trips allowed from Week 12-18), there’s no reason to get cute here.

Caleb Williams: Some high-pedigree options require time to find their groove at the professional level and some are named Caleb Williams.

The arm is what is praised and I have zero concerns about it. This is an offense that is going to work to highlight his strengths and with the Titans intercepting a league-low 1.1% of passes last season (league average: 2.3%), I’m comfortable with projecting a nice combination of aggression and volume in Williams’ debut.

Why I have him as my QB8 this week is a bet on versatility. The Titans ranked 28th in pressure rate last season and with a trio of strong receivers, I have no concerns that Williams can produce top-12 numbers through the air. That’s encouraging, but what has me playing him over QBs that have some MVP steam behind them in Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love is his ability to pick up yards on the ground.

Over the past 20 seasons, 11 rookie quarterbacks with first-round draft capital spent on them ran for over 25 yards in their first start – they averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game (for context, that would have been QB5 if extended for all of 2023).

That’s an impressive number at face value, but it’s even better when you consider that some of the quarterbacks in that sample (Christian Ponder, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater) weren’t exactly swimming in the same pool as Williams in terms of projected career arc.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: Was limited health to blame for Pollard falling flat in 2023? It’s either a Space Jam situation where the MonStars drained him of his talent, or he is destined for a complementary role.

I’m not sure which of those three options is most likely, but we do know that this franchise thought highly enough of Tyjae Spears to take Derrick Henry off the field at times last season in favor of him. This leaves us with plenty of questions when trying to label Pollard’s true ceiling outcome.

The Bears were terrible in the red zone last season (31st), but so was Pollard, making it very possible that Spears gets the first crack inside the 20. Chicago did round into form down the stretch of 2023 and finished with the fifth-lowest mark in opposing running back yards per carry after first contact.

The concern here is obvious: volume. Henry was handed the ball on an absurd 52.5% of his snaps last season, and that is how he paid off fantasy managers. The league average for a running back hovers around 34% and if we give Pollard that rate along with Henry’s snap share, the mean projection comes out to 10.7 carries.

Is that enough? Is that enough behind an offensive line that was one of just six that failed to clear, on average, even three FEET of room for their running backs before contact? I don’t feel great about the Tennessee RB role as a whole being all that valuable this week and my confidence only dips further if we are looking at 10-14 touches apiece.

Tyjae Spears: As a rookie, Spears showed well for himself in the passing game, hauling in 52 of 70 targets and threatening defenses in space. Pollard can do some of that too, but considering that this franchise saw Spears do it, I think it’s reasonable to make him the favorite in the passing game, and that role could see some value against a Bears defense that had the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT a season ago.

I don’t have either Titans RB inside my top-30 at the position this week, but I do have Spears a few pots higher based almost entirely on the idea that this team put him on the field for the majority of their offensive snaps 12 times last season with Henry on the roster.

I’d wager that this backfield will have an alpha by the middle of October — I’m just not jumping the gun and assuming I can project who that’ll be in Week 1 against an improving defense.

D’Andre Swift: The Bears’ new RB1 is my favorite running back in this game, but I’m struggling with assigning him anything more than a low-end RB2, high-end Flex grade. The Titans allowed the eighth fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs last season, and that was where Swift thrived as a Philadelphia Eagle.

Leaders in carries with 5+ yards gained before contact, 2023:

• Lamar Jackson: 47
• Christian McCaffrey: 42
• Swift: 39

Tennessee also owned the best red-zone defense in all the land a season ago, making a bailout touchdown a tough bet. I think Swift is more dynamic than the Zamir White/Devin Singletary tier that I have ahead of him, but the touchdown equity of options like Raheem Mostert/David Montgomery keeps them ahead.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: At the beginning of August, we feared that a knee sprain would result in missed time to start the season, but he should be on the field, and if history holds, he might just post Flex-worthy numbers.

Hopkins has cleared 15 PPR points in eight of nine Week 1’s during his career (22.4 PPG), and while the exception did come last season (13.5 points), his 36.1% target share in that contest suggests that it wasn’t for a lack of trying (21.8 expected points). It wasn’t Week 1 last season, but it was Levis’ Week 1 in which Hopkins turned six targets into 34.8 fantasy points.

For the record, I have him ranked outside of my top 35 at the position. The missed time this preseason is concerning, and I just can’t wrap my head around playing a Levis target at less than full strength with the entire league at my disposal. If you squint, you could get there, and maybe there’s a DFS build worth exploring with him as the bring-back on a Chicago stack – it’s just not for me in redraft.

Calvin Ridley: If you have two, you have none. Hopkins ranked fourth in deep targets a season ago, while Ridley checked in at fifth. These two players aren’t identical, but there certainly is some skill duplication in Tennessee’s developing pass game and that has resulted in me trusting neither to open the season (both outside of my top-30 receivers).

With time, the hope is that either Levis looks like a franchise QB and can stabilize both of these playmakers or he latches onto his favorite of these two and elevates him to a top-25 producer.

I’d slightly favor Ridley in that race, though I’m not arrogant enough to bet on my initial feel given the depth at the receiver position. I’d rather play a stable skill set like Chris Godwin/Christian Kirk or swing bigger in a Jayden Reed/Tank Dell kind of way than gamble on the Titans’ unclear situation.

DJ Moore: This is a loaded offense, but the competition for looks seems destined to be at the WR2 role. Moore came to Chicago last season and earned targets at an elite rate in an offense that carried significant aerial risk – why can’t he excel again this season now that he has a year of experience under his belt and is paired with a better thrower of the football?

Moore is unlikely to dominate the target share the way he did last season due to the increase in talent around him, though I don’t think it’s risky to label him as the top earner. The Titans allowed the ninth-most yards per pass last season, and that’s more than enough to land Moore as a rock-solid WR2.

Keenan Allen: The 32-year-old has had a weird offseason. For the first time in his career, he has switched teams, and, likely, for the first time in his life, his athletic ability is being questioned. I’m not overweighing the #FatKeenan narrative, but there is no denying that Rome Odunze has looked quick this summer or that Allen has missed 11 games over the past two seasons.

Allen thrived last season thanks to catching a pass on a career-high 20.6% of his routes. He benefited from the extreme volume, which I think has virtually no chance of repeating this season. I’m taking the patient approach with the non-Moore receivers in Chicago. This offense should be strong enough to support two pass catchers; we just need proof of who that second man is going to be.

By the time bye weeks roll around, I suspect we will have a pretty clear picture of where the targets are going, which will land two Bear WRs inside my top 30 instead of two outside my top 35.

Rome Odunze: This rookie class has a chance to be remembered as one of the best, and I expect Odunze to post a few ceiling weeks. The question coming into the season is that of a floor — will he be the odd man out on a consistent basis, or can he develop a connection with Williams from the jump?

Fantasy is a game that sometimes rewards the aggressive and sometimes the conservative. You have the opportunity to be both when it comes to Odunze – you stuck your neck out to draft him, and now you can wait to cash in on your bet without taking the lumps along the way.

Maybe by Week 2, he’s locked in. Maybe not. I’m willing to miss one good week of production before plugging him in as opposed to chasing the breakout and risking multiple dud weeks in the process.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Punting the tight end position is dangerous these days with the deepening of the talent pool, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be pulled off. That said, if you’re going to execute this strategy, you have to do it in a smart way – Kmet doesn’t open the season as such.

In piecing together the position, you want upside in role or matchup and I’m fairly confident that Kmet offers neither. Last season, the Titans were a top-10 defense in terms of tight end receptions allowed, and only the Patriots allowed fewer scores to the position.

That lowers the opportunity count for a tight end that was already at risk in that department and subtracts from scoring equity that was already a weakness (Tennessee allowed the lowest red-zone completion percentage last season at 43.5%).

No matter what you think about the Keenan Allen weight situation, the veteran receiver is a proven target earner who, along with the other two primary WRs in this offense, ranks ahead of Kmet in the hierarchy of this offense.

Add in the fact that we appear destined for Shane Waldron to implement his TE committee situation with Gerald Everett and this is far too thin of a situation to bet on in Week 1. Maybe that changes with time and if it does, we can always adjust, but at the moment, it would be irresponsible to start a player that is unlikely to rank better than fourth (and maybe even sixth) in routes run.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Bengals -8.5
• Total: 41
• Patriots implied points: 16.3
• Bengals implied points: 24.8

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Sitting Burrow is a viable move for fantasy managers to open this season. I have him just inside my top 12 at the position, so I’m not writing him off, but you need to be aware that he is sitting atop a tier that extends all the way down to QB20 – those 10 quarterbacks are separated by very little, and he is at risk of underwhelming.

First and foremost, we aren’t sure how healthy he is. The great Stephania Bell has been cautioning against labeling a return to practice and a return to form as anything but two different things – Burrow is going to play this week, but he’s been managed all offseason long and could certainly be limited.

As concerning as it is, it gets worse when you look back at slow season openers for Burrow in each of the past two seasons (cumulative Week 1 stats: 84 pass attempts, two touchdowns, and four interceptions). Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase had loud offseasons while Joe Mixon moved on – this offense should still be good, but it might require time.

That’s a lot of moving pieces to take into a game against a Patriots team that excelled on the defensive side of the ball:

• Third-fewest yards per drive
• Fourth-lowest touchdown rate
• Sixth-best red-zone defense
• Seventh in blitz rate

I’m playing both of the primary rookie QBs over Burrow this week if I have the chance, and I think it’s within the range of outcomes for a veteran like Derek Carr (vs. WAS) or Matthew Stafford (at DET) to post a better total to open the season.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: Some players are gifted enough to rise above an offensive environment that offers support, but most fall victim to such situations and Stevenson seems to be falling into that bucket.

Last season, just 6.4% of his carries produced 10+ yards (31st of 35 qualified RBs). I don’t think he is most to blame for that. It’s tough when 60.9% of your carries come with 7+ defenders in the box, but the situation projects no different this year than last, and that has him sitting outside of my top-20 at the position, a spot in the ranks I expect him to occupy all season long.

If you drafted him as something of a Zero-RB build, he’s fine. He’ll get his fair share of touches, and the Bengals were the second worst first down rush defense of the past decade last season by EPA. It’s not likely to be an exciting day at the office, though his role does carry enough of a floor if you hammered the other positions early.

Zack Moss and Chase Brown: Depending on which way the wind blows, you’ll get a different answer as to who the best play in this backfield will be this season. Could Brown lead in touches but Moss get the touches of value? Will this offense lean heavily on Burrow and leave the backfield without any consistent value?

We are entering the season with more questions than answers, which is why neither of them is a Flex play for me this week against the best per-carry rush defense in the league.

Even if you feel like you have a good read on this offense, will it matter in Week 1? New England allowed a touchdown at the fourth-lowest rate last season and was the sixth-best red-zone unit. Use the first week, and maybe the first month, as a time to learn.

This backfield, in my opinion, is a good bet to produce a top-20 back. We just have to get a feel for who assumes the most advantageous role.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Lynn Polk: The encouraging second-round pick deserves to be rostered due to the lack of clarity in target distribution for this offense, but we are a ways away from playing a Patriot pass catcher in annual leagues with any degree of confidence.

The Bengals allowed a league-high 12.3 yards per completion in 2023, making them a defense to target, generally speaking, though this low-octane offense isn’t one that I’m comfortable betting on at the moment. With Kendrick Bourne (Week 8 ACL tear, PUP list) on the shelf, a high-volume DFS player might take a stab at the highest upside member of this receiving room, but for most of us, Polk is very much a wait-and-see prospect.

DeMario Douglas: Receivers with relatively “boring” skill sets need at least quality or quantity of targets to play in their favor, potentially both – I’m not sure Douglas opens the season with either.

After all, we had a hard time extracting value from Tyler Boyd while he was with the Bengals, and that is who Douglas is. However, Douglas is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field on a consistent basis in an offense that is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field.

Douglas averaged 8.6 YAC on balls thrown less than five yards last season, third-best among qualifiers (behind only Deebo Samuel Sr. and Rashee Rice), but this situation simply isn’t built for fantasy success.

I’d hang onto him for now if you don’t have a pressing, must-add on the wire and hope that he can earn a heavy target share, but I’m not optimistic that this offense supports a single pass catcher you have to roster.

Ja’Marr Chase: His status for this game has become a talking point, as he and head coach Zach Taylor are pretty clearly not on the same page.

Last week, Taylor indicated that Chase would be a full participant in practice despite a contract “hold in,” and less than 24 hours later, the team’s WR1 showed up late for practice wearing street clothes and not pads.

With two years left on his deal, this appears to be more of a power play by Chase than the use of much leverage, but the fact remains that his status is uncertain. If he plays, you play him. I hate to make it that simple, but he has seven of the top-10 WR games produced over the past two seasons when Burrow is under center, including four better than Higgins’ best over that stretch.

Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas should be added to the back end of your roster whether you roster Chase or not – free pieces of a Burrow-led offense are worth a roll of the dice should this situation get uglier.

Tee Higgins: And we all thought Higgins would be the most disgruntled Bengal receiver in Cincy entering the season. It hasn’t been a banner offseason for the Orange and Black, but Higgins has been with the team and, regardless of Chase’s status, might be most well-positioned to make a mark against a stingy Patriots defense.

Last season, 12 of the top 14 WR performances against New England saw that player post at least a 9.8 aDOT in that game, with the average being far higher than that (13.4).

Since the start of 2022 on passes from Joe Burrow:

• Higgins: 11.5 aDOT
• Chase: 9.5 aDOT

Higgins was viewed as the bottom of the “you’re very good, but you’re still the WR2 in your own offense” tier of receivers, getting picked up to two rounds after Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith. Even in a tough matchup, I have him ranked ahead of two of those three and believe he’s a locked-in WR2.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Henry scored twice in his first two games and three times in his final two – and once in between. With this team bringing in target competition without much promise in terms of significant offensive upside, this isn’t a unit I’m targeting if I’m streaming the tight end position.

If the scratch you need to itch is that of an AFC East waiver wire tight end, Tyler Conklin and Jonnu Smith have my attention more than Henry.

Mike Gesicki: There will be a time this season in which the stat “he runs a route on over 70% of his career snaps” will matter, and that is why I have him labeled as a Fantasy Football Tight End Sleeper, but in Week 1, there is no need to go to a thin option like this.

I believe there will be a third option in this passing game that will be of interest to fantasy managers and Gesicki is my bet. Add him to your watch list now and be patient.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

• Spread: Texans -2.5
• Total: 48.5
• Texans implied points: 25.5
• Colts implied points: 23

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: During his magical rookie season, Stroud threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions against this vulnerable Colts defense. Indy simply had no answer for Nico Collins in those games (he turned 18 targets into 16 catches for 341 yards and a pair of touchdowns), and you could easily argue that they will be even more difficult to stop this time around.

Not only does Stroud now have Stefon Diggs. Not only does Stroud likely have a more stable running game (in those two games, Houston’s leading rusher averaged just 2.4 yards per carry). Stroud also has a high likelihood of finding himself in a shootout environment.

Anthony Richardson was injured during the first meeting and missed the second, totaling just 10 pass attempts across the two contests. If the Colts are as potent on the offensive end as I believe they will be, this game could cruise into the 50s and produce two of the five highest-scoring signal callers for the week.

Anthony Richardson: Richardson’s stock was on the rise all summer long, so if you landed him, you’re a believer and playing him regardless of the words I put on paper.

You’re going to be right more often than not, and I think you hit it big in Week 1.

I’m of the belief that Richardson will get his rushing numbers regardless of the matchup. NBA teams can’t stop Steph Curry from launching 3s, and MLB teams can’t routinely retire Aaron Judge. Richardson’s physical profile creates, in my opinion, a similar level of inevitably. With that as a baseline, any week in which he projects as an asset throwing the ball, he’s a true threat to pace the position in fantasy production.

Last season, the Texans allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and saw 70.8% of opponent yards come through the air (the fifth-highest rate). The injury to Josh Downs is less than ideal, but we did see Richardson execute the scripted offense at a high level this offseason. If there was ever a game where this coaching staff could plan out a large percentage of the game plan, it’s Week 1, with all the time in the world to prepare.

He’s a Tier 1 QB this week. The Richardson experience will include valleys, but I think you’re loving life with a big number to start his second season.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: We know who Mixon is as a player, and while the lack of upside is a pain, the reasonable stability to open the season slots him into fantasy lineups across the board.

Let the record show that I was lower on him than most coming into the season, and I stand by that (Houston saw their close-game run rate fall from 47.7% through eight weeks to 39.3% for the remainder of the fantasy season as Stroud’s star ascended), but I have him as RB16 this week against a Colts defense that allowed a touchdown once every 27.3 running back carries (fourth-highest).

Efficiency has never been Mixon’s calling card, and I worry about his work in the passing game when it comes to sustaining upside. It’s getting a little cute to get this far ahead of the trade market, but the Texans should score over 100 points on the field in September (Colts, Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars), potentially being a tide that lifts all boats in the short term.

Be careful. A late bye (Week 14), a tough finale (Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 16-17), and the AFC East gauntlet on the schedule all create a worrisome floor. There’s a world in which Mixon is an RB1 heading into October and creates a selling window to better your chances of winning a title; you heard it here first.

Jonathan Taylor: The Texans were stout against the run last season, allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs — numbers that are even more astounding when you remember that they were lit up by the Colts.

• Week 2, Zack Moss: 18 carries for 88 yards and one touchdown
• Week 18, Taylor: 30 carries for 188 yards and one touchdown

We enter this season with a healthy version of Taylor and if the past has taught us anything, that gives him a chance to pace the position in scoring. In his last two Week 1 games, he has averaged 31 opportunities (rushes + targets) and six red-zone touches.

You spent an early pick on Taylor, and even against a run defense trending in the right direction, you should feel good about getting RB1 returns.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: Collins is going to rank higher for me than for you most weeks – get used to it.

Collins was the second-most efficient receiver in yards per route run last season. Collins was the second-best receiver in terms of fantasy points over expectations last season. He gave us top-5 production at the position five times last season, a year in which he was working into his WR1 role with a rookie under center.

Now, his role is defined, and his QB is viewed as an MVP favorite and not an inexperienced prospect. I’ll step off my Collins soapbox, but the case is straightforward. As for this matchup, all he did was torch the Colts for 16 catches, 341 yards, and two touchdowns on his 18 targets.

The Colts were a bottom-10 team in defensive success rate, and they weren’t confident enough in the backend of their secondary to bring the heat and speed up opposing signal callers (third-lowest blitz rate). If you’re telling me that C.J. Stroud is going to be able to relax in the pocket in a game that is on my shortlist for bets when it comes to the highest-scoring contest of Week 1 – I’ll take my chances with his rising star.

You drafted Collins as a starter, and you’re starting him with confidence, There’s no news there. What I would caution against is the instinct to consider selling high should he post a big number – it won’t be the last time.

Stefon Diggs: Among the most interesting storylines of the first week (for that matter, the first month) of the season is the usage of Diggs. Will he be used as he was for the majority of his time in Buffalo? Will Houston elect to tier their receiver routes – Dell runs deep, Collins a mix of everything, and Diggs more shallow? Was the late-season decline in 2023 a blip on the radar or a red flag?

We will get those answers with time, and until then, he’s going to occupy my “you can Flex him, but he’s not a must-play” tier of receiver. Sorry for the long name and some fence-sitting, but I’m a straight shooter, and the honest truth is that we aren’t sure what his role is going to look like just yet.

Of course, I have my guesses. Last season, the Bills were beating their head against a wall with their WR1. Instead of adapting to what they saw on the field, they, more-or-less, kept his role the same and prayed the production would resurface. In the second half of the season, he didn’t stop running deeper routes (his aDOT dropped just 5.1%, well within the range of expected variance over a small sample) despite a lack of success on such plays.

• Weeks 1-10: 58.6% catch rate on deep passes
• Weeks 11-18: 20% catch rate on deep passes

We know Stroud wants to punish defenses down the field, and we know he had the weapons to do so before Diggs was acquired. If they elect to leverage his experience and route running, he could have a very successful season that mirrors something like peak Diontae Johnson. If not, we could be looking at a frustrating player who struggles to string productive weeks together on a weekly basis.

I have confidence that Houston will put the pieces together with time, but expecting another season with over 1,100 yards and at least eight touchdowns, something he did every season in Buffalo, is dangerous. Both he and Dell are going to live in that fringe top-30 range for me at the position until we have a better feel as to the quantity (and quality) of targets that both are seeing.

Tank Dell: I was one of the many who doubted Dell after a nice preseason performance last August, writing it off as simply a nice prospect making plays against inferior competition.

As it turns out, even elite competition had a problem all season with the third-round pick out of Houston (709 yards and seven scores in 11 games). Dell’s slight frame (165 pounds) didn’t stop him from earning 10+ targets on four occasions last season or averaging 15.1 yards per catch.

Given his development during the season, there is plenty of reason to think he can be an outlier at his size (DeVonta Smith is the only sub-170-pound receiver with a 100-target season over the past decade). That said, he did get injured to close last season, and he was held under 60 yards in six games a season ago.

His first impactful fantasy game did come against these Colts and it came basically with him winning on only one type of route.

Beginning to look at Week 1 #FantasyFootball matchups. Tank Dell gave us this route tree in Week 2 against Indy.

Doesn't look great, but he still produced 7-72-1.

He's better now and the Texans threaten in more ways. What stat line do you think he opens the season with? pic.twitter.com/9YcGYzqsN1

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024

I like what he brings to the table and am encouraged to watch him grow alongside Stroud, but with an uptick in target competition, I do have my concerns about labeling him as a locked-and-loaded WR2 from the jump this season.

You can plug him in as your Flex and embrace this game’s high point total. That said, I would still prefer the other light receiver (Smith) and would side with receivers like Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, or even Brian Thomas Jr. – receivers who I feel I have a better read for their Week 1 role.

Michael Pittman Jr.: There is certainly a risk that comes with betting on Richardson as a passer, but I don’t think you have to worry about his WR1. Pittman led the position with 51 catches within five yards of the scrimmage last season, and while I think he sees his aDOT expand a bit this season, a reasonable floor should remain.

You could argue that DK Metcalf or Brandon Aiyuk has a higher ceiling this week than Pittman – I’m happy to side with the elevated floor to open the season, and that is why I have Indy’s WR1 inside my top 15 at the position this week.

Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs: I’ve grouped all three of these secondary options together because there will be weeks to chase their specific roles. As we gather data on how this offense looks under Richardson, I’ll feel better about my ability to handicap the target distribution – for the short term, I’m not playing any of them.

Downs (ankle) was injured early in August at practice and could be held out of this game. In theory, that should increase your confidence in the remaining receivers, but there is much more overlap in what Downs and Pittman do than the downfield roles of Pierce or Mitchell.

Only three defenses allowed more completions on bombs (25+ air yards) than the Texans last season. If you’re stuck in a bind in a really deep league, Mitchell and Pierce both have one-catch potential to pay off your decision, though that’s not a role that you should be chasing in average-sized leagues.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the usage of Pierce vs. Mitchell, though it won’t be with any Week 1 lineup investment tied to either.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: I don’t expect Schultz to ever occupy an “exciting” role in this loaded offense, but the window is open for some PPR value, and this could be a spot for him to push into the top 12 at the position.

The Colts allowed the sixth-most yards per short completion in 2023 (7.8) and if Stroud is truly hellbent on throwing deep more this season, it’s easy to envision a situation in which Indianapolis plays a shell defense that encourages him to check down.

For his career, Schultz has seen 78.9% of his receptions coming on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield, a role I very much expect him to occupy with Collins and Dell creating panic down the field. Diggs is a threat to absorb plenty of usage around the line of scrimmage, but I’ll bet on that connection taking a little time to develop, making the early season the time to explore using Schultz if you’re in a bind.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Dolphins -3,5
• Total: 49.5
• Jaguars implied points: 23
• Dolphins implied points: 26.5

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: The Dolphins blitzed at the sixth-lowest rate a season ago, something that, along with the game script, gives Lawrence a path to an interesting upside. In 2023, he ranked 30th in fantasy points per blitzed pass attempt and 13th when not blitzed.

In Week 1 last season, Lawrence found himself with a different receiving core than he left the prior season with and in a game that cleared 50 total points. Sound familiar?

He finished the week as QB8. Projecting such a finish isn’t wise, but I think he finishes inside the top 15 at the position this week and that was higher than his ADP this summer. The Dolphins stack will be popular in DFS – if you wanted to take your favorite piece of their offense as a bring back to a Jaguar stack, you can be drastically different than the field despite identifying the same game as the favorable one to load up on.

Tua Tagovailoa: I don’t want to say it’s a flow chart situation when it comes to Miami’s lefty, but I’m not going to say it’s not. For his career, in games with over 25 passes thrown …

• Kickoff temperature 80+ degrees: 22.1 fantasy points per game
• Kickoff temperature <80 degrees: 14.7 fantasy points per game

For reference, QB2 last season averaged 21 PPG while QB21 averaged 14.7 PPG. We have ourselves a warm game – so you blindly plug in Tagovailoa, right?

Always a #FantasyFootball topic

Tagovailoa might get you Tua title game (three straight non-weather issues in Weeks 14-16) but Week 17 at CLE needs the be factored into the #FantasyFootball rankings process pic.twitter.com/twt4GTFvU4

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024

I wouldn’t go that far, but when facing a defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the league last season in pressure rate and opponent pass touchdown percentage, it’s easy to like the polarizing Dolphin as much as ever.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne Jr.: There isn’t a running back on your roster that you’re benching, so don’t get cute just because the Dolphins allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry after contact last season. Through two years, we’ve seen Etienne do a bit of everything, and the idea behind a full-blown breakout would be him putting it all together for a magical three-month run.

Do I think that’s possible? Sure do. Believe it or not, as part of an inconsistent offense last season, he was the solo leader in rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards (the other two fantasy-viable RBs in this game and Breece Hall all tied for second). We know he can catch the ball and explode out of the backfield – we also think we know that Jacksonville will want to keep Miami off the field.

Etienne is my RB7 this week, RB1 in this game.

De’Von Achane: Last season, we saw a running back reach 17.9 PPR fantasy points on eight occasions against the Jaguars, and that includes seeing both ends of a tandem do it to close the season (Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry). Could we see something similar on Sunday?

It’s certainly possible. At the very least, you can feel good about Achane. In 11 of 15 games to close last season, a running back cleared 13 PPR points in this matchup, and given their respective ADPs, it’s clear that Achane is the favorite to be the lead producer in this backfield.

As a rookie, Achane either saw 3+ targets or ripped off a 25+ yard run in nine of 11 games. I can preach “regression” as much as I want to, but even as a skeptic, I’m playing him without much thought.

Raheem Mostert: Despite Achane’s emergence last season, Mostert played 56.4% of the snaps, a rate that mirrored his rate from 2022. Even with Jaylen Wright now in the mix, Mostert should be on the field for roughly half of the snaps of an elite offense; while carrying the scoring role, that locks him in as an RB2 (he scored 21 times last season and had multiple red-zone touches in 13 of 15 games).

As Jonathan Taylor worked back from injury last season, the Colts gave both of their featured RBs 12+ touches, and both returned top-24 value at the position (Zack Moss was RB7 and Taylor RB21). That’s essentially how I see this playing out – anyone with a piece of this backfield should feel just fine about their prospects to open the season.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: This offense sort of struggled to sustain two viable receivers last season as it was often one of them along with Evan Engram cracking fantasy lineups. I think there’s a decent chance that changes this season and that is why I have both primary WRs in Jacksonville inside my top-35 at the position.

Well, that and the projected shootout nature of this game.

We know Kirk can get open in a hurry and I think that’ll create a nice floor against a Miami team that ranked second in pressure rate when not blitzing last season (39.3%, six full percentage points above league average). Kirk likely doesn’t win you your matchup this week, though I would be surprised if he came in well under expectations and set you behind.

Brian Thomas Jr.: I’m in — all the way in. This WR rookie class got plenty of deserved attention this summer, and I actually think some of the hype actually helped us get a bargain on Thomas. With the bar set so high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Thomas’ star didn’t shine as bright in terms of the media machine – that could change once the cleats hit the ground and the games count

Brian Thomas Jr.

(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 29, 2024

If you need the full Thomas love letter, check out either our Bold Takes or My Guys podcasts — I couldn’t choose, so he’s heavily featured in both. As for this specific week, the ‘Fins were the fifth worst red-zone defense last season, and that has me thinking Thomas could score in his NFL debut, something his LSU brethren in Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. both did.

I think you can Flex him now, I’m not going to wait on a profile that lines up this well.

Tyreek Hill: Do I think he could beat Noah Lyles in a race? Probably not, but put both in pads and I think the difference is even greater in Hill’s favor than it would be in Lyles’ without pads.

There you go, those are the types of thought exercises a Hill manager needs to go through because there is no question if you’re starting him (seven top-five finishes at the position in 2023).

Jaylen Waddle: After a slow start to 2023, Waddle was fine. We saw glimpses of the ceiling with a pair of WR1 finishes with Hill active, but those were offset by four finishes outside of the top 35 at the position.

I want to bet on the talent, but this offense isn’t structured to maximize his fantasy value. As a result of some difficult matchups for receivers I’d typically have ranked ahead of him, Waddle slides into my top 20 this week, the hope being that the Dolphins can score 30-ish points and pay off all of their assets.

Waddle’s mean production is fine to take on this week because of the upside he carries whenever he is on the field.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: I like Thomas’ potential as much as anyone, but there is no denying that, until proven otherwise, Engram is the man best suited to thrive in this Lawrence-led offense.

Engram finished 2023 with the second-most catches ever by a tight end in a single season (114), doing so in a very consistent and efficient manner. I’m projecting a little less volume but a little more scoring equity in 2024, something that could land him among the top five scorers at the position this week against the Miami defense that allowed the third-highest red-zone completion percentage last season (65.5%).

Jonnu Smith: In today’s NFL, it’s hard to be as concentrated through the air as the Dolphins were last season and that is why Smith is of interest to me long-term. I’m not playing him this week, but it’s not hard to see him working his way into a 4-6 target role and if that’s the case, he will be a viable option when the Dolphins face a stingy secondary.

I don’t roster two tight ends anywhere. If you punted the position and roster Smith, you’ve committed to him and I think that’s fine. If you punted the position and Smith is a free agent, I’d make sure to monitor his usage this weekend and potentially make a move if the snap share is stable.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -4.5
• Total: 40
• Panthers implied points: 18
• Saints implied points: 22

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young: I am here for the Year 2 Young emergence.

OK, that might be a bit strong. What I meant to say was that I expect him to prove that he isn’t nearly as bad as the underlying metrics of his rookie season suggest, but that he’s still a very long shot to matter in our game for anyone not playing in a Superflex league.

Dave Canales certainly has an impressive track record when it comes to squeezing production out of his signal-callers, and maybe he can do it to Young, a QB with plenty of room to grow. Heck, maybe we see signs of it this week against a Saints team that I like to put points on the board.

Under Canales:

• Geno Smith: 29 chances (completions + runs) in Week 1, 2022
• Baker Mayfield: 29 chances in Week 1, 2023

Young only had one game last season with 29+ chances, so from a sheer volume standpoint, I think he can overachieve the little that we have seen from him.

That said, let’s not get crazy for a QB who had one game with multiple passing scores after mid-October and is in a less-than-favorable spot.

Derek Carr: Ready for the time-to-overthink-it-with-these-100%-accurate-facts-that-are-too-good-to-be-true play of the week?

We are so back. Man, I love this game.

There is one matchup on the board this week that features an offense that was top-eight in preventing pressure on their quarterback facing a defense that was bottom-eight in generating pressure.

I’m unable to formulate that as a trivia question due to the structure of this article, but yes, it’s Carr and the Saints against the Panthers.

The Saints weren’t at full strength in the first meeting with the Panthers last season, and New Orleans had to ask for extra space on the injury report for their QB when these teams matched up for a second time last year, so I’m not reading too far into the underwhelming numbers of 2023 in this spot.

Instead, I’m focusing on what should be a clean pocket for Carr to operate from.

Last season, of 30 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in fantasy points per pass when not pressured and 23rd when feeling the heat. Now that I’ve sold you (maybe) that he can be efficient, let’s address the upside.

Over the past five seasons on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Carr has a …

• Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
• Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
• Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)

The quantity of deep throws is often the sticking point for fantasy managers, and while I’ll agree that is prohibitive most weeks, I’m not sure it will be in this spot with all offseason to prepare for a defense that ranked bottom-10 in touchdown-to-interception rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt when defending those passes.

Carr has had a 25+ fantasy point game in seven of 10 seasons, and in those games, his aDOT (average depth of target) was 16.7% above his career average.

I can’t rank him as a top-10 play due to a lack of upside on the ground and all 32 teams being in action, but given the quality of QB not available on the main DFS slate due to the loading up of prime-time games, I can pitch him as an interesting GPP play that you can double stack for cheap and still have a Jonathan Taylor/Tank Dell mini stack.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard: Jonathon Brooks was officially placed on PUP after the preseason ended, and that gives Hubbard some utility early on — emphasis on “some.”

Hubbard was featured in this underwhelming offense a season ago, and despite playing in every game, he turned that strong volume into just three finishes better than RB18.

If that’s his ceiling, is the chasing of volume even worth it against the best defense in terms of success rate against the run? I have Brian Robinson Jr. and Tony Pollard, two running backs not promised high-end volume, ranked higher for Week 1 thanks to an expected edge in efficiency and/or overall game environment.

Hubbard checks in as a fringe Flex option for me. He offers a level of safety that a Jameson Williams or Christian Watson does not, but he’s going to have to do better than the 0.66 points per touch he gave us last season, which was third-worst among qualified backs.

Alvin Kamara: I’m largely out on Kamara this season. He’s pretty clearly past the peak of his powers, and while the pass-catching is still an asset, his ability to do anything else has me worried from a consistency perspective.

READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football RB Busts for 2024

Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD):

• 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
• 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
• 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
• 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
• 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
• 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
• 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)

That said, I’m fine with deploying him in this spot, and maybe using a big game as an excuse to move on from him. The Panthers allowed a touchdown on just under 5% of running back carries a season ago, easily the highest rate in the league. It’s a number so high that it could prevent Kamara’s seemingly inevitable regression.

Carolina also blitzed at the fifth-highest rate last season, and we all know that Carr doesn’t need an excuse to use his safety valve.

Kamara was unable to exploit this matchup last season, but I’m not worried about the predictive powers of that. I have him ranked as a starter in all spots this week.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: It’s very possible that Johnson being drafted outside of the top 35 at the position this summer will be proven wrong with time. I just don’t see the point in rolling the dice on him in his Panthers debut.

Last season, opponents failed to pick up a first down on 42.3% of drives against New Orleans, a rate that trailed only the Browns, and one that will likely stick against a Carolina offense that looked lost at sea for much of 2023.

I made the argument for a peaking receiver supporting a high-pedigree Year 2 QB earlier this month, so I’m very much keeping the light on for Johnson. That said, when it comes to team debuts in Week 1, I prefer Stefon Diggs, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley, and Rome Odunze to name a few in this general Flex range.

Inspired by @LizLoza_FF's Diontae Johnson optimism

He's 28 and joining Bryce Young (1.01 in 2022)

Since 2004: 13x has a 27-29 year old WR joined a 1st round pick in the QBs Year 2 … 14.5 PPG (WR18 last season)

Even better? 8 of those 13 WRs exceeded 14.5 PPG pic.twitter.com/rF8mysj7aA

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 8, 2024

Adam Thielen: From Weeks 2-6, Thielen was the highest-scoring receiver in the game, and the second-highest-scoring player in the league.

Let me say that again: Thielen was the second-highest-scoring player in the game (tweet me @KyleSoppePFN if you want the top five) over a month. What he did over that run was rack up highly efficient targets less than 10 yards down the field and make the most of them (aDOT: 8.2 yards).

I’m not sure that the short-yardage role is Thielen’s this season, and I’m even less sure that it’s a profitable spot on the field against these Saints.

Last season, New Orleans allowed the seventh-lowest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field and surrendered the fifth-fewest completions. With Johnson penciled in as the top target earner and facing the sixth-best team in terms of average time of possession, I’m more than content to bet against the elite volume that Thielen requires to pay off starting him.

The fantasy industry has plenty of blind spots, but the masses properly evaluated Thielen this summer. He shouldn’t be a part of your starting lineup discussion to open the season, and he isn’t the type of player who is a must-roster option.

Chris Olave: The fantasy community is begging to know if Olave’s talent can shine through in a top-10 sort of way with Carr under center. I have hope, and this could well be a step in the right direction given that the Panthers allowed a touchdown on 24% of opponent drives a season ago (fifth-highest rate in the NFL).

Olave has also had success against the Panthers through two seasons – he’s scored at least 12.8 PPR points in all four matchups and has earned north of 10 targets in three of those games.

Olave is a fringe WR1 for me this week, ranking alongside Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr. as alpha receivers with potential upside limiters when it comes to getting them the ball.

Rashid Shaheed: I’m of the belief that Shaheed is good at football, but at a loaded position, he’s more of a DFS play than someone to consider for annual lineups until he becomes a 6-8 target per game asset.

For those daily contests, Shaheed is a live wire this week. He and Olave both had 40+ yard grabs against these Panthers in Week 2 last season in large part because Carr can just sit back in the pocket and let his athletes roam.

In 2023, Carolina was the second-worst defense in terms of creating pressure when not blitzing.

So just blitz, right?

Wrong. The Panthers were dead last in pressure percentage when bringing the extra man.

I don’t expect Shaheed to garner much ownership with a full schedule this week, and we know the upside is there for a single catch to pay off his price tag.

A.T. Perry: Everything about Shaheed’s profile rings true for Perry, as well. The former Demon Deacon has the size (6’5”) and athleticism to dominate jump ball situations; if Carr is going to have all day to identify mismatches, this could be a spot where his WR3 is on the right side of a few bombs.

There’s no reason to be looking this far down your depth chart in Week 1, but it wouldn’t shock me if his name is a popular one when Derek Tate and I do the waiver wire podcast on Monday – or if his name is on one of those “look at the winning lineup for the millionaire maker” posts.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: You’re either in or out on Hill – there simply is no gray area.

If you want to fully commit to Hill, play him every week and don’t waste too much time thinking about it. If you passed on him at the draft, keep it that way, and don’t add the Sunday scaries to your list of weekend anxieties.

Hill might be used in an improved way and prove to be a cheat code, or he will continue to be a random number generator that never has the same role in consecutive weeks.

I’m not big on randomness, and thus, will come in low on Hill (outside of the top 15) until I have a reason to pivot. We just haven’t seen him do it to open a season yet. Hill has just one double-digit PPG game in September on his NFL ledger.

I’d rather bet against Hill and have him beat me the one week I play him than spend all season chasing the ceiling weeks and standing to lose multiple matchups as a result.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

• Spread: Vikings -1
• Total: 41.5
• Vikings implied points: 21.3
• Giants implied points: 20.3

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold: Maybe there is a world in which we see the best version of Darnold on a Vikings team that, when at full strength, has a trio of pass catchers that is certainly capable of elevating the quarterback. Banking on him being usable out of the gates in anything but deep Superflex leagues, however, is borderline crazy.

In Darnold’s six best fantasy performances to date, he challenged secondaries deep downfield with an aDOT of 9.2 yards. I suspect we see a more conservative approach from him to open this season, especially in a game where the script is unlikely to demand aggression, resulting in him ranking outside of my top 20 at the position.

Daniel Jones: For the time being, Jones has one job for fantasy managers and one job only – make Malik Nabers work.

I could tell you that Jones is fifth at the position in rushing yards since entering the league and, with a true WR1 on the roster, that profile is what fantasy managers draw up. But I think we’ve seen enough to really need proof of concept before putting Mr. Dimes anywhere near fantasy lineups.

It’s possible that Jones looks good through two weeks this season against two of the seven worst defenses from 2023 in terms of opponent passer rating. It doesn’t matter. We’ve seen sparks from him in the past, and the position is simply too deep to get sucked back in.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Could this game get chaotic? It features the two most blitz-heavy teams from 2023, and we aren’t talking about passing games that are likely to punish aggressive defensive play-calling. That should result in plenty of opportunities for Jones.

“Should,” is the keyword.

One cannot help but notice that Jones hasn’t been trusted with much in the way of work to open the past three seasons. Since the start of 2021, he has five games with under 12 touches despite playing over 46% of the snaps:

• 2021 Week 1
• 2021 Week 12
• 2022 Week 1
• 2023 Week 1
• 2023 Week 8

Yes, those games came as a member of the Packers, but maybe Jones’ body requires time to get into full game shape? I wish I could explain this usage. I can’t. But I can point it out and I can also mention that Ty Chandler has been on this roster during Kevin O’Connell’s entire tenure.

If you’re starting a Vikings back, it’s Jones, but I don’t feel great about it. At the very least, the game script shouldn’t be an issue – a sentence I might not get to write for this team again until late October.

Ty Chandler: I expect Chandler to assume a greater role as the season progresses. And if Jones shows any signs of the age decline that the Packers feared, maybe he approaches standalone value sooner rather than later.

The Giants allowed the fourth-most yards per RB carry before contact last year. If Chandler is going to make a statement with his carries and earn more work, this could be a spot for him to do so.

Devin Singletary: I’m skeptical that Singletary will hold on to the bell-cow role in this offense through October, and I’m not sure his season gets off to a great start.

During his entire career up to this point, Singletary has been involved in offenses that have proven to be dangerous. He spent four seasons with the Bills and Josh Allen before taking his talents to Houston last year in an offense that was as potent as anyone once the Texans figured out what C.J. Stroud was capable of.

It’s safe to say that this situation in New York is not the same as either of those. Running lanes are going to be more difficult to come by, and for a player who hasn’t had a 35-yard carry in over nearly 1,000 days, counting on the home run play isn’t exactly wise.

The Vikings’ defense had their share of issues in 2023, but they allowed a league-low six running back carries of 15+ yards. I think you can get away with Flexing Singletary in the rare Giants game that should come down to the wire, and thus stabilize his touch count. But asking for much more than that is dangerous with Tyrone Tracy Jr. set to nip at his heels for touches.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: While there is no actionable advice here, this will be an interesting situation to watch. How does this Darnold-led pass game function?

He couldn’t have asked for a softer landing spot to debut, and his WR1 could well look like the record-setting version of himself that we’ve become so accustomed to seeing over the past four seasons.

Jefferson averages 9.6 targets per game for his career and while you can question the quality of those looks this season, it seems safe to assume that volume won’t be an issue.

In 2023, there were 14 times when a receiver saw at least nine targets against the G-men, and they averaged 21.1 PPR PPG.

Obviously, there are some star receivers in perfect spots on that list (A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb to name two), but also included is Garrett Wilson (a decent template for the worst-case 2024 scenario for Jefferson), and lesser talents like Quez Wakins and Demarcus Robinson.

I’d bet the “under” on 21.1 fantasy points for Jefferson in this game, but the fact that an outcome of that level is within reason should squash your concerns for arguably the best receiver in the game. Save those worries for next week against the 49ers.

Jordan Addison: With off-the-field issues this preseason and a mid-August ankle sprain, why even take the risk of considering Addison for your lineup until we see him play?

As a rookie, Addison scored on 14.3% of his receptions, a rate that I was going to label as unsustainable if Kirk Cousins had remained on this roster. It’s now a near certainty Addison won’t come close to matching that in 2024.

He could see his fair share of targets with T.J. Hockenson on the shelf, but asking Addison to post Flex-worthy numbers on a consistent basis is a step I’m not close to taking.

Addison needs a touchdown to bail you out, and maybe he gets it against the 25th-ranked red-zone defense from a year ago. But without a score, Addison’s floor is awfully low, and that’s why he’s hovering around WR50 in my ranks.

Malik Nabers: Reasonable minds disagree if the chicken or the egg came first, and reasonable minds disagree if Nabers’ talent will shine through a cloudy QB situation or if the lack of talent under center will mute his abilities.

I have my concerns when it comes to week-over-week consistency, but Nabers profiles as a starter in all formats for his professional debut.

Last season, receivers cleared 15 PPR points against the Vikings 13 times, six of which came from a QB labeled as nothing more than average.

Highlighting that list was Tee Higgins (22.1 points with Jake Browning) and Adam Thielen (15.2 points with Bryce Young), the latter of which is a pretty good baseline. In that game, Thielen accounted for 37.3% of Young’s completions and was featured in an offense that essentially tried to melt the clock (24-play edge in plays run and over 38 minutes of possession).

I expect the Giants to run a similar death-by-1,000-paper-cuts style of play this season, and we could well see the best version of it in the season opener given the time to prepare.

The Vikings were vulnerable on a per-play basis last season, but they were above average in red-zone defense, making volume all that more valuable for Nabers.

The early schedule plays out favorably for Nabers – the Vikings, Commanders, and Cowboys (likely without DaRon Bland) are three of the Giants’ four September opponents. I maintain my stance that Nabers could well be a sell-high candidate by midseason.

Lock him in this week, but don’t get out over your skis if he hangs a big number.

Darius Slayton: Fun fact Alert — Slayton is just 27 years old, yet he is the only player with four seasons of 700+ receiving yards on 50 or fewer catches this millennium.

By “fun,” I mean very specific and not at all appealing in our game.

Slayton scored in three straight games to end the 2023 regular season, which helped salvage an underwhelming season. But this isn’t a profile I want a piece of in annual leagues.

In a matchup like this against Minnesota, which allowed the 10th-highest pass TD rate on deep passes last season, value hunters could justify burning a DFS lineup with Slayton, who saw over 29% of his targets come 15+ yards down the field in all five of his NFL seasons. But outside of that, Slayton has little appeal and doesn’t need to be rostered in standard formats.

Tight Ends

Investing in either of these offenses is scary enough, so why bring a zero-point floor into the equation by looking in this direction?

T.J. Hockenson is an interesting stash (I have my concerns about him providing top-five numbers immediately upon his return), but until that time, there isn’t a tight end on either of these rosters that you need to waste brain power on.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

• Spread: Chargers -3
• Total: 41.5
• Raiders implied points: 19.3
• Chargers implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II: There might not be a more fun player in the NFL to root for than Minshew, but asking him to lead your fantasy team to glory comes with far more risk than reward.

Don’t get me wrong, Minshew can put fantasy points on the board when unleashed, though this appears to be a conservative offense that will ask him to not be reckless.

Across his 37 career starts, Minshew averaged 17.3 PPG when posting an average depth of throw north of 9 yards, and 15.7 PPG otherwise.

“That’s not that big of a gap, Kyle, and I want to have fun rooting for Minshew.”

I get it, but that gap is bigger than you think.

Last season, 17.3 PPG would have ranked as QB11, less than half a point from moving up two spots. On the other hand, 15.7 PPG would have been QB18, barely ahead of Joshua Dobbs.

Trust me, I like fun, and if Antonio Pierce decides to embrace a YOLO offense, Minshew has the potential to do some damage with two big-play receivers and a uniquely gifted tight end at his disposal. I just view that game plan as a long shot – a very long shot.

Justin Herbert: If you drafted Herbert this summer, it was a bet on his talent with the understanding that you’d have to wait and see what this new-look offense did to maximize his tools.

Nothing has changed. Even in a seemingly strong matchup (though I’m never in a hurry to play a quarterback that could be subject to punishment from Maxx Crosby), you’re best to showcase patience.

It was a bumpy finish to 2023 (one TD pass on 98 pass attempts before his season ended early) and without much in the way of experience surrounding him, why would we assume that Herbert is ready to produce top-15 numbers at a loaded position?

I’m not sure either of these offenses will be in a hurry to snap the ball, potentially making this a low-possession game that nukes the fantasy value of most involved.

Running Backs

Zamir White: I don’t know if you’re ever going to love clicking White’s name into your starting lineup, but I’m also not sure if you’re ever going to fully regret it at the end of the week.

Over the final four weeks of last season, White ranked ninth among running backs in scoring (third in expected points) as the Raiders laid out a blueprint of what they, theoretically, want 2024 to look like.

The volume appears locked in – it’s the upside that’s the question.

Scoring is always going to be difficult, and in a game that might look more like 1994 than 2024, the possession count doesn’t exactly project favorably. White also doesn’t profile as much of a threat in the passing game, especially with two receivers and two tight ends likely to be prioritized ahead of him through the air.

I’m going to have White ranked as a viable Flex play most weeks as a mean ranking – if he scores, I’d bet he finishes inside the top 20. If he doesn’t, White could easily fall out of the top 30.

White’s projectable volume alone has him above committee backs that don’t play for high-flying offenses (I’ll swallow the touch disadvantage with Raheem Mostert or David Montgomery and chase their scoring equity over White).

He might lose that benefit of the doubt as these backfields (namely Washington, Dallas, and Tennessee) sort themselves out, but for now, he’s a low-upside Flex option who is more appealing in formats that de-emphasize pass-catching.

Gus Edwards: The Gus Bus stands to come to a screeching halt now that he is no longer isolated by the Ravens’ offensive scheme, and that reality could be obvious to open the season.

No running back last season scored 20 PPR points against the Raiders without seeing at least five targets, and only one (the great Jonathan Taylor) reached 14 points with at least looks in the passing game.

If pressed, I’d bet the under on 3.5 targets for Edwards.

No, not for this game – for the month of September.

There will be a time and place to try to steal points from a back like this that will rely on cashing in a carry inside the 5-yard line, but taking a risk like that in Week 1 for an offense that underwent an overhaul this offseason is trying too hard.

The Chargers do not have an alpha running back, and that is why Edwards deserves to be rostered. It’s easy to see a world in which he earns plus-volume and handles all of the duties in close.

But with a lack of versatility, Edwards’ PPR upside is significantly capped in this situation. And with every team in action, I’d be shocked if you didn’t have two running backs and 4-5 receivers that I’d rather plug in.

J.K. Dobbins: When this game kicks off, we will be 1,331 days removed from the last time Dobbins played at least 52% of the snaps in an NFL game. The theory behind drafting him late this summer was sound in that it’s cheap exposure to a run-centric offense that lacks backfield depth chart clarity, but you’re very much playing the long game.

As long as Dobbins exits this game healthy, he should very much remain rostered, albeit with the understanding that he’s not a lineup option until we see him carve out a 10+ touch role on a consistent basis.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: The Raiders’ QB situation might be prohibitive to Adams at some point, but with an entire training camp to implement a game plan and a vulnerable defense on the other side, I don’t expect that to be the case in Week 1.

Last season, the Chargers were a bottom-five defense in YAC. Did you know that Adams paced the league with six touchdown catches on balls thrown less than 5 yards last season?) They were also a bottom-five unit in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per pass attempt.

The Chargers put up little in the way of resistance when it comes to limiting the number of Las Vegas throws directed to its WR1 – Adams had 25 targets across those two meetings. And with Minshew at the helm, there’s even more reason for optimism.

The Mustache has started 37 games across his NFL career, and 31 times has he supported a receiver clearing 15 PPR points. Take it a step further and you’ll notice that, in the majority of those instances, that wideout scored at least 18 points.

This isn’t an anti-Jakobi Meyers take – seven times has Minshew supported a pair of receivers surpassing 15 points. It’s simply supporting an elite talent at full strength in a good spot.

The schedule toughens in short order as the Raiders play the Ravens and Browns this month, and Adams’ ranking will dip with time. But for Week 1, an elite performance is very much a possibility.

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers doubled his career touchdown count last season as he turned 106 targets into 71 catches and eight scores. I maintain my belief that he is a good player with a number of ways to threaten defenses, something that could land him on fantasy radars with time. But, like with Minshew, I need to see how this offense functions before committing.

If you want the bull case from a Meyers stan, the Chargers allowed a league-high 41 pass plays to gain 25+ yards last season and saw opponents pick on their secondary from the jump with a league-high 73.8% of their first-quarter yardage allowed being gained through the air.

I wouldn’t call you crazy if you wanted some Meyers DFS exposure, though he’s well off of my starting radar in annual leagues. For now.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer enters the season as my most rostered Chargers receiver, and I have hopes that he can earn valuable targets at a high enough level to get onto Flex radars.

That, however, is going to take time in this Jim Harbaugh system, and it’s why I don’t have any receiver on the Chargers’ roster inside of my top 40 at the position this week, even against a defense that allowed the highest red-zone completion percentage in the league last season (68.7%).

You drafted Palmer with the understanding that it could be a slow burn. Stay patient. There is likely to be a receiver from this offense that pushes for a Fllex-worthy ranking with time, but blindly guessing before we have any data is a good way to lose your matchup.

Ladd McConkey: The rookie comes to the pro game with some NFL-ready traits, and we could see him flex his YAC ability from Day 1.

The Raiders, thanks to the presence of Maxx Crosby, had the lowest opponent average depth of throw in 2023 (6.5, NFL average: 7.7), putting McConkey in position to rack up the receptions and show us what he has.

There’s no reason to plug McConkey in just yet, but this is a good spot to see if his skills translate to the speed of the pro game. It could also serve as an indicator of whether he will be a Flex option by the middle of the season as the Chargers’ target hierarchy comes into focus.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers: I’m fine rostering Bowers and hoping that the raw talent wins out. That said, history tells us that you’re essentially betting on a touchdown if you start the Georgia star in his NFL debut, a shaky bet at best for a team with one of the lower implied totals on the Week 1 slate.

Since 2002, only one time has a tight end scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in his first career game when not finding the end zone. If you’re curious, Coby Fleener was that player, and he had the benefit of playing in an offense led by college teammate Andrew Luck and a game script that required three times as many pass attempts as rushes (the Colts lost 41-21 in Chicago).

Bowers’ preseason usage was encouraging, and there is a path to him mattering this season. But he’s not ranked as a fantasy starter for me this week and likely won’t be for this first month – not until we get a grasp on his role and how this offense is going to function.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Seahawks -6
• Total: 42
• Broncos implied points: 18
• Seahawks implied points: 24

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix: The rookie showed some versatility this preseason, and there is certainly a path to big weeks (I argued that he’d have the best single game by a rookie QB this season in my Fantasy Football Bold Predictions piece), but I think we can agree that we need to see it before betting on it.

First-year signal callers can struggle with the speed of the NFL game once the live bullets start firing; considering that the Seahawks were the sixth-best defense at generating pressure when blitzing, I expect this game to look exactly like you’d expect — a big play or two but more mistakes than chunk gains.

I think this game might be fun to watch — and more fun if you’re not invested heavily in either pass game.

Geno Smith: To me, this matchup is going to be won/lost well before the game plays out on Sunday. Ryan Grubb brings his big-play offense to face Vance Joseph’s aggressive defense — to the better schemer goes the spoils!

Denver blitzed on one-third of opponent dropbacks in 2023, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, giving them the potential to pick at a scab of Smith (26th of 31 qualifiers in fantasy points per pass against the blitz last season).

That said, if the offensive line can buy Smith time, this could be a spike week. He’s been a top-seven passer over the past two seasons when throwing deep in terms of yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating. He’s proven to have a nice touch on those splash plays, and the argument could certainly be made that a veteran in Tyler Lockett is never going to be healthier than he is today.

I tend to favor the defense in a battle of the minds early in the season because there are fewer moving pieces. For Smith to hit on a long play, the offensive line needs to hold up, the receiver needs to get separation, and he has to identify the mismatch in a timely manner.

That can happen, but I like the odds of that profile more after playing for a month and developing a rhythm. An aggressive offense can be effective from the jump, and that is what I expect the Broncos to do against a Seahawks line that allowed pressure at the eighth-highest rate in 2023 (not to mention a 46.1% pressure rate when blitzed).

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: It appears that Williams is well removed from the “he is on the roster bubble” nonsense from earlier this month and is in line to lead this backfield in a significant way. I’ve been higher than the industry on Williams all offseason, using the logic that he deserves some leniency for his underwhelming 2023 season after the ACL tear. I think we could see a vintage performance to open this year.

Last year, the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most running back carries of 15+ yards (22), and we know Williams can hit the home run. Just as encouraging as that is Nix’s profile. This preseason, he showcased nice athleticism, and while it was called back, he did find Williams for a touchdown this preseason against the Packers.

Even last year, which most considered a lost season, there were only three running backs in the NFL with more 10+ carry, 2+ catch games than Williams. I’m happy to be early to the party for a versatile 24-year-old in an offense that might have a higher ceiling than most assume.

Kenneth Walker III: I made Walker a flag-plant player this offseason and have him ranked as an RB1 to open the season. The Broncos’ defense was better than their annual numbers looked last season — giving up 70 points in a single game will do that — but they were victimized by the big play (second most 15+ yard carries allowed to running backs last season), and that is essentially the entire argument behind elevating Walker.

Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Walker. There is your list of RBs averaging three red-zone touches and picking up 10+ yards on at least 11.9% of their carries over the past two seasons. I’ll grant you that the floor is concerning and maybe the volume underwhelming if Zach Charbonnet can build on an impressive rookie season, but the ceiling is too high to ignore when in a matchup like this.

We could experience the full Walker experience over the first six weeks of this season. It’s not hard to sell yourself on him posting big numbers against the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants, but peppered in the middle of those plus-spots are games against the Patriots and 49ers. I don’t think it’ll be a flawless season, but if you spent a fourth-round pick on K-9, I think you’re going to profit in a significant way when all is said and done.

Zach Charbonnet: I thought Charbonnet was fine as a rookie (4.3 yards per carry and an 82.5% catch rate) and should be again this season. Walker is the type of all-or-nothing back who needs a level of stability behind him to keep the offense on schedule, and I think the UCLA product can provide that.

Asking him to hold standalone value in a non-desperate situation, however, is a step I’m not willing to take. He didn’t clear 10 touches in a single healthy Walker game. Without elite burst, limitations like that in his role are too much to overlook.

Personally, I like Walker a lot this season and think the Seahawks will take a Saquon Barkley approach with him — keep giving him touches until the game-breaking play occurs. If that’s the case, Charbonnet is nothing more than a handcuff. There’s a decent chance I’m wrong with that Walker projection, and that is what makes his backup roster worthy, but he shouldn’t be on your lineup radar just yet.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: I liked what I saw from Nix this preseason, and if Tim Patrick’s release implies that this team is happy with what they have at receiver, you have to think Sean Payton is a big fan of what Sutton can do as the clear WR1.

He assumed the alpha role last season, something we thought was Jerry Jeudy’s, and ran with it. For the year, he finished 20.9% over expectation in terms of fantasy production, easily the best rate of his career; but even in a breakout season, consistency remains a concern (under 20.5% target rate in all three seasons since tearing his MCL).

The Seahawks allowed a touchdown on 24.6% of opponent drives last season (fourth most) and that puts Sutton in the Flex mix for leagues that start three receivers. For now, he’s swimming in the pool of my ranks that includes other talented receivers with young QBs (Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, etc.). I could see him emerging from that pack, but I’ll need to see a consistent connection with Nix before even considering getting him inside my top 30.

Marvin Mims Jr.: Did the Broncos show their hand? Could they be in on Mims (17.1 yards per catch as a rookie)? They surprisingly cut Patrick after the final week of the preseason, opening up consistent snaps for an offense that has very little in the way of stability.

I have Mims stashed in a few spots, and while I’ll admit it’s more of a process bet than outright confidence in the player, the train of thought remains. We are getting a decent prospect (63rd overall pick) in an offense that is led by Payton and an unknown at quarterback. Gabe Davis isn’t a perfect comparison, but the former Bill was worthy of a roster spot because you were forced to play him as there was the potential for a massive week at any time.

Of course, that’s a dual-edged sword, but you know what you’re getting into. The Seahawks allowed the second-highest deep touchdown rate a season ago, so while you’re not plugging Mims into lineups yet, I would put him on the end of rosters for free now before he costs you FAAB or waiver priority should he cash in on this matchup.

DK Metcalf: Smith needs to bounce back this season for Metcalf to be a difference-maker. That said, the physical tools are too much to sit on; that is going to give Metcalf a chance to be inside of my top 15 at the position until proven otherwise.

Last season, Metcalf ranked fourth in the league in end-zone targets, and over the past two seasons, he has led all players with 12 games of multiple end-zone looks. Even if the yardage totals carry risk, the usage in the painted area is nothing short of elite and should be on full display in this game that features two of the six worst EPA defenses from 2023 — (bet the over?).

Tyler Lockett: Counting out this veteran isn’t for the faint of heart, but with seven games last season with three or fewer receptions, it’s impossible to enter 2024 with confidence.

Lockett will turn 32 later this month and is coming off of his worst season in terms of fantasy points to expectation since 2017. I have him positioned to be the fantasy WR3 in this offense, and that means it’ll take the perfect matchup for him to move onto my Flex radar — I don’t think this is that with Denver blitzing at the fourth-highest rate last season.

What made Lockett special for years was his ability to win deep and connect with Russell Wilson on those bombs. Things aren’t the same with Smith; if the Broncos are going to bring the heat, he’s not going to have the time needed to land the type of splash play that you’d need to justify going this direction.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: There has been a groundswell regarding the JSN breakout season, and I’m generally on board. The depth of the WR position allows us time to be patient when it comes to plugging him into starting lineups, and that’s a blessing, though I do want him on my roster in case he truly explodes in Year 2.

Smith-Njigba last season:

• Weeks 1-5: 3.3 aDOT
• Weeks 6-18: 7.2 aDOT (still shallow, but more optionality)

We know that Grubb wants to stretch the field. We know that Smith is capable of doing so. We know that Lockett showed signs of decline last season. Put all of those ingredients into a pot and we could be looking at a fantasy league winner with time.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: I don’t really understand the idea of Fant as a solution for people who punt on this position. In an offense with unstable QB play, do you want to bet on maybe the fourth option at pass catcher on an offense that should be able to run the ball reasonably well?

No thanks. There are plenty of options at the position on your waiver wire right now that interest me more this season. Fant has seen his yards per route decline in each of the past three seasons and ranked 34th of 39 qualified TEs in targets per route run in 2023 (13.5%).

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Browns -2.5
• Total: 42
• Cowboys implied points: 19.8
• Browns implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: America’s QB is coming off of a season in which he cleared 4,500 yards through the air with 36 touchdowns and a career-best 69.5% completion percentage. He was special last season, and the pass-centric offensive stylings are likely to return in 2024.

That said, this could be a tough spot. There’s no denying the talent on the defensive side of the ball in Cleveland, and Prescott’s shortcomings in such spots were glaring last season

• Against top-10 yards/play defenses: 13.6 FPPG, 6.4 yards per pass
• Otherwise: 22.2 FPPG, 8.0 yards per pass

I’m not saying that Prescott sinks your team outright, but as a member of a large tier, asking him to return QB1 value in the season opener is a little optimistic for me. He’s your starter, and you’re not playing a streaming option over him, but I’d temper expectations and avoid him in a DFS setting.

Deshaun Watson: No team generated pressure more often than the Cowboys last season, and that hurts Watson’s ceiling case to open his 2024 season. Watson ranked 21st in fantasy points per pressured attempt last season, wedging him between Gardner Minshew II and Desmond Ridder in that metric.

That’s a problem, especially if Dallas controls the clock (third in time of possession last season). Watson’s profile carries upside due to his versatility, the pass-catching talent around him, and the backfield limitations. All of that said, you’re playing in a very deep league or getting too cute in DFS if you’re starting him this weekend, and that’s coming from someone with him pegged as a sleeper for the season as a whole.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: Zeke’s stat line last season was an unmitigated disaster, and if you watched the games, it looked even worse. Do you know those science lab situations where a mouse is asked to find the cheese at the end of a maze?

That’s what 2023 was for Elliott — he was the mouse, but the cheese had no scent … and the walls were really high … and there was a moat filled with lava in the middle that required him to tightrope across … while juggling marbles.

Zeke might be washed. He probably is. But the situation glow up is tough to overstate: #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/HEUCAUChVx

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024

He was put in a position to fail, and he did, something that tells us almost nothing. I suspect the age curve is near, but I can’t in good faith use last season as proof of that. Dallas brought him back in hopes of recapturing his past form, something that is unlikely to happen but should land him a favorable role out of the gates.

There is some versatility in this profile and touchdown upside by default. The Browns allowed a league-low 0.69 yards per carry before contact to running backs last season (that’s under nine inches), furthering my opinion that this isn’t going to be a pretty stat line. That said, a touchdown and a handful of targets is an RB2 profile, and his path to such a week is certainly there.

It’s easy to forget now, but Cleveland was the worst red-zone defense in the league last season, allowing six points on 71.4% of drives that crossed their 20-yard line. Of course, making it that far isn’t a given, but no defense was better at it last season than Dallas; Tony Pollard did lead the league in carries inside the opposing 30-yard line last season.

Elliott ranks ahead of Rico Dowdle in this backfield, ahead of other touchdown-reliant RBs (Gus Edwards and Ray Davis), and ahead of short-end-of-a-committee types (Zach Charbonnet, Ty Chandler, and Austin Ekeler, to name a few). That’s still not enough to earn him a spot in my top 30, but in a deeper league, I’d understand Flexing him to open the season and hoping that this offense as a whole props him up.

Rico Dowdle: I don’t have a problem with holding Dowdle; he could be an asset in rather short order if Elliott is cooked, but the wait-and-see approach is best to use here. His next NFL game with 14+ touches will be his first, meaning that even if he transitions to the leader of this backfield, it may be a slow burn for him to prove worthy of our trust.

Dallas is going to create scoring opportunities, and that will put their top ball carrier in the Flex discussion at the very least. That might be doable with time, we just can’t assume it quite yet.

Jerome Ford: This spot isn’t much different than the one Chuba Hubbard finds himself in with the Panthers – the bellcow on an iffy offense with the starter out for at least the first month. I prefer him by two spots to Carolina’s backup option, and that lands him inside my top 30 running backs for Week 1. Barely.

Ford is strictly a volume play. There were 35 qualified running backs last season, and Ford finished 35th in the percentage of carries that gained yardage (72.5%). It’s natural to remember the big run in a prime-time spot after Chubb’s injury, but the fact of the matter is that Ford was very ordinary in his extended work last season; expecting more than that to open 2024 is a bit misguided.

The Cowboys were the best first-down run defense a season ago and allowed only three running backs to reach 14 PPR points in a game. The ceiling is low, but much like Hubbard, the known volume earns him Flex consideration with many backfields not offering that.

Ford is not a target of mine in DFS and isn’t someone I’d be thrilled with rostering in a Guillotine league, but in a redraft setting, if you spent early-round draft capital on the onesie positions, I could see a situation where you’re backed into a corner. He’s viable in a spot like that, though I’d still lean on slotting a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba into your Flex if you have the option.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: He’s paid, he’s happy, and he’s starting every single week for you.

Since Week 15 of 2022:

• 61.5 more PPR points than any other WR
• 8.8% more PPG than WR2 Tyreek Hill
• More games over 32 points (six) than sub-15 point games (four)

I was close to putting Lamb in his own receiver tier this preseason; while I ultimately included Hill in that top shelf at the position, Lamb is pretty clearly worth every penny you spent on him this offseason. That means counting on him to produce in a big way, even against the best EPA defense from 2023.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks was able to salvage 2023 thanks to an unsustainable touchdown rate, tallying six top-20 finishes at the position despite averaging a career-low 1.25 yards per route run. That, friends, is what we like to label as an aberration.

I do this for a living, and mock/real drafts create easily digestible content. That’s to say that I’ve been drafting for 3+ months at this point – there are few players of which I have literally zero shares: Cooks is on that list. I don’t need an excuse to pass on him (could Jalen Tolbert be a 2024 sleeper with time?), but the Browns allowing the fewest yards per drive last season (20.8) since the 2008 Steelers is certainly noteworthy.

He’s outside of my top 50 at the position, and that’s not changing until I’m proven wrong multiple times, even as a part of this high-octane offense.

Amari Cooper: Despite clearing 1,100 yards in each of his two seasons with the Browns, Cooper was rarely picked before the fifth round this summer with fantasy managers essentially universally preferring WR2s in good spots (Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith).

Only time will tell if that was wise, but I do expect the veteran receiver to finish better this week than his ADP suggests most do. The Cowboys led the league in pressure rate last season (44.7%), and that allowed DaRon Bland to thrive in his aggressive style. There are two ends to that sword, however, and with Bland out for this game (and potentially all of September), this secondary is thin.

The Joe Flacco experience was fun last season, but don’t forget that Cooper was a top-10 producer at the position in two of Watson’s five full games. Call me crazy – I’m a fan of established receivers with a QB connection facing a team that is going to require them to put points on the board.

Patches O’Houlihan had his five Ds of dodgeball, and I’ve got my five Ds of receivers I’d play Cooper over this week: Drake, DK, Deebo, DJ, and DeVonta.

Jerry Jeudy: The Cowboys were the best defense by a wide margin last season when it comes to creating pressure without blitzing (42.7%, the only team north of 39.3%), and that forces their opponents to beat them with timing.

I suppose it’s possible Jeudy and Watson develop a connection over time, but I’m not going to project it until I see it. Jeudy scored just 11 times during 57 games with the Broncos and is firmly off of my radar, much the way Cooks is on the other sideline until I have a reason to pivot.

The more I look at this game, the more I think Cooper is a threat to lead the league in targets in Week 1.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: I went on record this preseason as saying that, of the tight ends being drafted as fantasy starters, Ferguson would prove to be the best value; I stand by it. I took it a step further on the PFN Fantasy Podcast Bold Predictions episode (Aug. 26) by saying that he’d find the end zone 10 times this season; I stand by it.

The scoring equity is there in Dallas’ offense, but don’t mistake Ferguson as a one-trick pony. His aDOT (average depth of target) ranked 18th of 26 qualifiers at the position, a role that should give him a reasonable floor to buoy his value on a week-to-week basis. This is a position full of violent swings in terms of production, but Ferguson projects as the type that can challenge the peaks of most without asking you to absorb significant risk.

He ended last regular season with six straight games of 6+ targets and then showed out on the big stage against the Green Bay Packers in the playoff loss (10 catches for 93 yards and a pair of scores). If I’m right with Cooks being on his last legs as a feared part of this passing game, Ferguson could ascend to Tier 1 — you don’t need to be as passionate about him as I am, but you’re playing him weekly and not thinking twice about it.

David Njoku: If you’re simply looking at box scores from last season, falling in love with Njoku is justifiable. In 2023, he set career highs in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns with relative ease — not bad for a season in which the starting signal-caller was active for just six games.

The problem here is threefold:

1. Njoku faces more target competition this season.
2. The injury-prone quarterback still has the same shoulder injury to worry about.
3. The backup quarterback has changed.

Jerry Jeudy’s addition may not seem like an overly impactful move, but for a team that ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation last season — despite Nick Chubb missing the majority of the season — there isn’t a ton of wiggle room in terms of opportunity count.

• With Deshaun Watson: 1.7 points per target, 14.7% target share, 1.3 aDOT
• With Joe Flacco: 2.1 points per target, 24.6% target share, 6.7 aDOT

Njoku remains a back-end TE1 for me for now, especially in a game that could be higher scoring than most of Cleveland’s contests this season, but the risk of the floor falling out needs to be accounted for. I wouldn’t hate the idea of selling high should we get a few big games in this favorable run in the first seven weeks.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
• Total: 44
• Commanders implied points: 20.3
• Buccaneers implied points: 23.8

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels: If you drafted Daniels, you did so with his ceiling games in mind, and this could be one of them. Last season, the Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate and allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt – is that not the perfect formula for Daniels’ profile?

The concern with the pride of LSU is his ability to process at the NFL level, but he might not need to in Week 1. If his first read is open (and it will be on occasion given Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies at the second level), he takes it. If it’s not because the Bucs guess right when they are blitzing, then the 6’4” athletic marvel gets out of the pocket and you watch the fantasy points pile up with him in space.

From a game script perspective, things could work out. I have my questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball (fourth in percentage of yards that came through the air last season), and if they operate similarly in this matchup, that is perfect for Daniels. Either Baker Mayfield’s passes are hitting the turf and stopping the clock or they are picking up chunks (Washington allowed the third most yards per pass last season) and forcing Daniels to play catchup.

Like you, I have my concerns about the rookie’s support at his disposal, something that didn’t improve with trading Jahan Dotson ahead of the third week of the preseason. That is likely to result in some valleys this season, but that’s more of a concern in October (Browns and Ravens to open the month) than September (Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals).

Baker Mayfield: I think a lot of what we saw from Mayfield last season is going to be difficult to repeat, though I think he’s a fine QB2 in this spot. Last season, Washington allowed an average passer rating of 105.7, not only the highest in the league but the worst defensive showing since the pandemic season of 2020.

The structure of this offense is a favorable one (viable pass-catching options and a versatile back that is more of an asset out of the backfield than between the tackles), and that is going to result in a few usable weeks – but I’m confident that you have one of the 17 quarterbacks I rank higher this week on your roster.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr.: I like Robinson this season more than most, but the optimism doesn’t carry over to the season opener. If Austin Ekeler is ever going to consistently cut into his touch count, it’ll come early in the season, thus making an 18+ touch afternoon somewhat of a longshot.

I think we see the volume turn in his favor before long, but without it, the ceiling isn’t that high. Only once last season did an RB reach 20 PPR points against the Bucs without having 24+ touches (Jonathan Taylor in Week 12; I like Robinson as much as anyone, and I think we can agree he’s no J.T.) With the third-best red-zone defense on the other end, this isn’t as favorable of a matchup as you might assume.

I’m Flexing Robinson in a few spots (ahead of Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard in my ranks) this week with the expectation of 10-12 PPR points. The logic behind the love for him this season was a cheap bet on an offense that could overachieve and his continued development as a pass catcher. I remain bullish on the player for the marathon that is the fantasy season, even if the first sprint isn’t an impressive one.

Austin Ekeler: I was vocal in my support of Robinson this offseason and that, naturally, comes layered with a bet against Ekeler. The one-time fantasy god came in 21.1% below fantasy expectations last season, a bad mark for anyone, let alone someone whose baseline was 17.7% over expectation.

The Buccaneers excelled in a few areas on the defensive side of the ball last season, but they were top six in both opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion to running backs. Ekeler, in my opinion, has a thin path to fantasy upside; if the production in the passing game is at all limited, he’s poised to hurt you more often than help.

Keep him rostered, but try not to get sucked in by the value that this name has held in the past.

Rachaad White: I’ve been lower on White than the industry for like 10 months now. Yes, that means I was burned in a significant way for the second half of last season, but I remain sold on the process – an inefficient back playing for an offense I don’t trust carries too much risk to rely on consistently.

I’m back for more fading of White this season … just not this week. The Commanders saw opponents throw 7.2 passes per game to running backs (fourth most) and were a bottom-10 rush defense in yards and yards per carry. In essence, every type of back found a way to victimize this defense, and 2024 should feature more of the same.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were talking about White as a sell-high by the middle of October, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, you can play your third-round pick with confidence as a top-15 option in PPR formats with a reasonably stable floor.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: Last season wasn’t pretty as McLaurin averaged a career-low 1.56 yards per route run. Bringing in an athletic quarterback is no lock to fix that efficiency problem, but I like the chances of this offense being in scoring positions more often this year than last. That gives their unquestioned top target earner a chance to produce his best season.

Even in an uneven 2023 campaign, McLaurin posted six top-24 finishes (two top-10s). On the opposing sideline is a less-than-intimidating secondary, making his sheer volume of projectable looks worthy of a top-30 ranking. I’d play him in Tampa Bay over the likes of Stefon Diggs and Jayden Reed, two receivers who are on far superior offenses but figure to see 2-4 fewer opportunities.

Starting McLaurin this week is a bit of a leap of faith given how little we know about Daniels at the professional level, but if he is as dynamic on the ground as we assume and his passing grades are near accurate, his WR1 should be able to do enough in PPR formats to reward your trust in a plus-matchup.

Luke McCaffrey: I don’t think there was a “big” winner from the Jahan Dotson trade, but it did clear a path for McCaffrey to get on the field with regularity as a rookie; that’s at least interesting in an offense that could be pretty good in short order.

I liked him as a late stash during the draft season, but if he’s sitting on your waiver wire, I think he can stay there for now. The Bucs ranked 11th in opponent passer rating on short passes (under 15 yards) and 28th on deep passes (15+ air yards, 19.8% worse than league average), not exactly the optimal opponent for a receiver who relies on YAC.

The backend of your roster can be a revolving door – I think it’ll land on McCaffrey at some point, just not to open the season.

Mike Evans: Being out on Evans after the big 2023 season was one of my bolder calls this preseason, and I’m sticking with it. I don’t think he lives up to an ADP that is 50+ spots higher than it was 12 months ago — but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fail every week.

Tampa Bay’s WR1 gets to face a defense that allowed 16 touchdown passes of 25+ yards last season. Yes, that led the league. Obviously. In fact, it was more such scores than the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Panthers, and Giants allowed combined.

Evans caught nine touchdown passes of 15+ air yards last season, the most in the league and good for a career-best.

In short, I don’t want you knocking on my virtual door to troll me about the Evans dud season prediction. I made that call knowing what stood in front of him in Week 1.

Chris Godwin: If this Mayfield offense is actually a house of cards, Godwin stands to lose the most value. I understand that he came on late last season (WR7 in total PPR points from Weeks 15-17, ranking ahead of Tyreek Hill), but he had the lowest slot usage of his career, and that is where a production floor can be established.

With White seeing plenty of those short-yardage targets and Godwin’s role downfield very much unstable, there is more risk than reward in this profile for me, even in a great spot. He ranks just outside of my top 30 at the position — I’d rather bet on offenses I trust more like Green Bay (Jayden Reed), Baltimore (Zay Flowers), or Houston (I wouldn’t blame you for playing three Texans ahead of Godwin!).

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: The king of the routes (second at the position and the Buccaneers’ team leader) is always on the field and rarely in fantasy lineups. It’s been over 10 months since the last time he reached 50 receiving yards in a regular season game.

The upside isn’t nearly enough to justify plugging him into a season-long league, but this matchup could make him an interesting DraftKings punt play in a PPR setting. The Commanders allowed the third most yards per pass attempt on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field – a five-catch, 55-yard performance would be enough to justify his price tag.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

• Spread: Lions -3.5
• Total: 51
• Rams implied points: 23.8
• Lions implied points: 27.3

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: In 2022, without Puka Nacua, Stafford ranked 27th in fantasy points per pressured attempt. In 2023, only seven quarterbacks were better, and that doesn’t include any of the top three quarterbacks off of fantasy draft boards this summer.

With Nacua able to win in a hurry and Cooper Kupp, theoretically, at full strength, Stafford repeating if not improving upon that quick-read production is very much in play. That’s a good trait to have any week but specifically against a Lions team that attempted to mask some secondary deficiencies by ranking third in pressure percentage a year ago (41.3%, trailing only Dallas and Cleveland).

Stafford funneled 55.9% of his targets in the playoff loss to these Lions to the Nacua/Kupp tandem; if he continues to look the way of his elite playmakers that often, he could backdoor his way into fantasy viable numbers.

I’ve taken a more conservative approach in ranking him, as I fear that Detroit could control the tempo in this spot. You could do worse than Stafford in a one-QB setting this week thanks to the matchup, but my guess is that, barring some unique strategy, the other QB on your roster is the better bet.

Jared Goff: My preseason pick for MVP (+2500) led this Lions offense to the third-best red-zone grade in the league last season (64.1% touchdown rate), and I maintain that he will have a strong season … just not a strong Week 1.

The Rams held opponents to the ninth-lowest red-zone completion percentage last season, putting them in a position to negate a major strength from this Detroit offense. That’s part of the puzzle, but the bigger one is the type of QB who thrived against Los Angeles last season.

• Lamar Jackson
• Anthony Richardson
• Jalen Hurts
• Kyler Murray
• Tyrod Taylor
• Dak Prescott
• Derek Carr

Those were the QBs responsible for the highest fantasy point totals against the Rams last season. Carr is the closest to the Goff play type, but he only got there because his Saints were down 23 with 6.5 minutes left (57.8% of his fantasy points that day came on the final two drives). With the Lions favored to win this game, I’m not betting on that profile, which lands Goff outside of my top 12 at the position this week.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams: PANIC. PUNT RETURNER. AHHH.

Calm down, people. There were only four players in the NFL last season to average even two punt returns per game, so let’s not act like this new role is going to tax Williams’ body in a way that his 21.7 touches per game last season didn’t.

The Lions owned the fourth-worst red-zone defense last season, and that is where you’re banking on Williams to put points on the board. In a game that could feature plenty of points, Williams is Los Angeles’ way to both get on the board and slow tempo.

You’re playing him and not thinking twice about it.

Jahmyr Gibbs: This backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:

• Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
• Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share

Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be this team’s top option close to the end zone (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of enticing.

Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions since 2000.

Gibbs is special and matchup-proof. The fact that the Rams allowed the second-fewest RB runs of 15+ yards last season (seven) is noteworthy for showdown contests, but there’s no reason to look elsewhere when it comes to your season-long league.

David Montgomery: After Week 5 last season, he played at least 52% of the snaps just once (Week 13 at NO, and it was a game-script situation — DET led by 21 points after just seven minutes). I worry about Montgomery’s long-term role in this offense if Gibbs shows the ability to succeed at a high level with an increase in work, but we aren’t yet to the moment where you’d bench Monty in a game that is projected to be a shootout.

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua: He shook off a preseason injury and appears ready to pick up where he left off as a rookie. We saw his role slowly extend down the field last season, and he could well take the top off of this vulnerable Lions defense in addition to the highly efficient targets that he is so good at earning within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

In 2023, Detroit had the third-highest opponent aDOT and allowed 40 completions on passes that traveled 25+ yards in the air. Nacua can pay off your optimism without the big play and has the potential to break the slate any time he and Stafford make a splash.

Cooper Kupp: There is no need to get into the Nacua vs. Kupp debate — both are great, and I expect both to produce at the level of a fantasy starter, both this week and for the entirety of the season.

In his historic 2022 season, it was Kupp’s target-earning that caught everyone’s eye. Nacua is the betting favorite to out-earn him this season, but much like the Rodgers/Adams connection in Green Bay for years, the telepathic powers inside the red zone can pay the fantasy bills in a major way.

In an injury-plagued season, amid Nacua lighting the world on fire, Kupp saw 18.9% of his targets come inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (Nacua: 10%). Both should regularly see enough volume to produce without a touchdown, but Kupp’s touchdown equity should be viewed as elite; that keeps him at a WR2 floor, even if you think Nacua is the featured receiver this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Rams allowed the fourth-highest TD/INT rate when opponents threw to the slot last season, not that Goff needs another reason to feature his certified star.

St. Brown carved up these Rams for 110 yards and seven catches on nine targets during the Wild Card win last season, a level of success that he could very well repeat in the season opener. Every single arrow is pointed in the right direction here; the only question is if he can ascend to the top tier at the position — and I think he can!

Jameson Williams: I mentioned the high opponent aDOT for opponents facing the Lions. Only two defenses had a higher one — one of which happens to be their opponent this week. The Rams saw their average opponent throw come 9.2 yards downfield last season, the highest rate in the league and 19.5% above the NFL average.

Combine that with Williams’ increased snap share down the stretch last season, and we get a viable dart throw that I’d be interested in if I think my opponent has a better roster than I do. I highly doubt that Williams will ever profile as a “safe” option, and that has me more inclined to play him. I drafted him for his spike weeks, and this could well be one!

I don’t think Williams’ risk profile is any different than the Titans WR duo or Xavier Worthy in Kansas City, a trio of receivers that I suspect most would start over him without much thought.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: The pride of Iowa was a revelation as a rookie (86-889-10) and looks more than ready to be the TE1 for years to come. He ended last season (including the playoffs) with a touchdown or double-digit targets in five straight games, showcasing the ability to win at all levels in the process.

From a fantasy standpoint, it was his ability to earn targets in scoring positions that made my heart full at the end of 2023. In his final four games of the regular season, LaPorta saw five end-zone targets, a huge step forward from the three he saw in his first 13 NFL games.

If you believe, as I do, that the Rams could struggle to generate pressure this season, then their league-high 8.6 opponent aDOT when not applying heat to the quarterback is a ceiling riser for Detroit’s second option in the passing game.

As Jameson Williams sees his role expand, defenses are going to be forced into an impossible situation: allocate resources to box in Amon-Ra St. Brown while keeping an eye on Williams over the top. LaPorta stands to be a beneficiary of that bind, matching up with linebackers who figure to struggle to keep up with him for more than a few steps.

What LaPorta did last season wasn’t fluky – you’re playing him every single week and gaining an advantage when doing so. I suspect he will be in the “pay up to be different” roster builds across DFS, and I’m here for it.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -3.5
• Total: 43.5
• Jets implied points: 20
• 49ers implied points: 23.5

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: I’m not forcing the issue. If you spent a late-round pick on the four-time MVP as a way to bet on talent at a discount, that’s fine, but why swallow this level of risk with all 32 teams in action this week and an elite defense on the other sideline?

• Sept. 13, 2020

That was the last time Rodgers threw a touchdown in his season opener. His opposing number in Week 1 (Brock Purdy) couldn’t legally drink alcohol the last time it happened – it’s been a minute. That’s not to say that Rodgers can’t produce, but he is very much a structured QB who thrives when the non-verbal communication with his teammates is strong. That, naturally, takes time and reps.

The 49ers’ defense was the 10th best at generating pressure last season when not blitzing and top-five in terms of opponent yards per pass attempt and overall passer rating. I have projected both of these defenses as elite, and both offenses are penciled in as bottom-quartile units in terms of tempo.

If either of those assumptions is accurate, Rodgers is going to struggle to be viable in even the deepest of leagues – if both are, he’s at risk of hurting you even in a Superflex setting.

Brock Purdy: I’m as deep into the spreadsheets as anyone — so much so that my computer has begun prompting me to type “Brock Purdy” any time after the word regression.

It’s going to happen, that’s just math. To what degree we can debate, but let’s save those fighting words for another day. The Jets had the second-lowest blitz rate in the league last season (16.8%; league average: 26%) and that should allow Purdy time to diagnose the schemes coming his way.

I think he can be effective in this spot, I just don’t think the possession count is going to be nearly high enough to lock him into my top 12. It might sound crazy, but I’d rather Jared Goff on Sunday night against the Rams or even Trevor Lawrence *ducks* in a potential keep-up spot against the Dolphins.

Purdy should be serviceable this season, I just think he leaves you wanting more on Monday night.

Running Backs

Breece Hall: An RB only cleared 20 PPR points once against the 49ers last season, and the position only reached 14 fantasy points five times.

This defense is elite, but we live in the year 2024, and great offense trumps great defense. Hall was eased into the lead role through four weeks last season. After that, he gave us five straight games with 12+ carries and 3+ catches (the longest streak by a running back in one of his first two seasons since Saquon Barkley in 2018).

Maybe we don’t get a ceiling game in this spot, but top-10 numbers should be expected, with room for more if Rodgers is in vintage form.

Christian McCaffrey: It’s always fun to have your best player involved in the final game of the week. Only the Ravens allowed a touchdown on a lower percentage of drives last season than the Jets, but you’re overthinking this at a high level if you have CMC labeled as anything but your best running back this week (he’s fallen all the way to RB2 in my weekly ranks as a result of this matchup).

McCaffrey carried the rock 146 times in enemy territory a season ago – not only did that lead the league, but it was also more such carries than 10 teams had from their entire backfields. This blend of talent, role, and offensive environment is as rare as it gets – enjoy the privilege of having this man on your roster, even in the toughest of spots.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Will Rodgers make it a point to feed his WR1 to open the season? It’s certainly not off the table — 14 of his 32 completions in Week 1, 2020, went to Davante Adams, resulting in a cool 156 yards and two touchdowns.

I don’t think anyone in their right mind is expecting a game like that in what projects to be a low-possession game, though I would be surprised if Wilson didn’t flirt with a target share in the high 20s, a role that includes red-zone looks.

As for Wilson himself, I was encouraged by a breadcrumb he left last season. We see the highlight catches from athletic freaks like this, but that’s not what creates a stable fantasy floor. In 2023, he showed us some NFL discipline and earned targets in a comforting way from the slot.

Target rate when in the slot:

2022: 22.6%
2023: 27.4%

It’s not his primary source of income, but I like his growth in effectiveness there, specifically for this matchup; four of the top five WR games against the 49ers last season came from a player who was lined up in the slot for the majority of their routes.

Wilson opens this season right where he closed draft season, and that is as a top-10 receiver.

Mike Williams: We hear that he could be eased in like Breece Hall was last season. The running back’s snap count was managed, yes, but he touched the ball on 46.9% of his snaps through two weeks, a nearly identical rate to the rest of his season (47.3%).

The path to Williams paying off my sleeper prediction is for him to work back to full health when it matters most. I stand by him being roster-worthy, but there are 50+ receivers I’d rather roll the dice on this week (Khalil Shakir, Michael Wilson, and Joshua Palmer among my favorite dart throws of the week).

READ MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Sleepers for 2024

Brandon Aiyuk: It was a far from quiet offseason for Aiyuk, but as long as he suits up for this game, I see no reason why he can’t be considered a top-20 play despite the matchup.

There is no denying that Aiyuk has a better connection with Purdy than Deebo Samuel Sr., something we saw by way of the big play — he had 28 deep receptions, a number topped by the one and only Tyreek Hill in 2023. In theory, this is a tough matchup. We know the Jets are loaded, and the potential for Rodgers to play at a snail’s pace certainly doesn’t help.

That said, featured receivers were able to do enough for fantasy managers last season against Gang Green. Jaylen Waddle caught eight of nine targets when he faced the Jets with Hill inactive (Hill caught nine of 12 targets in the other Miami/New York contest), Stefon Diggs had a game where he hauled in 10 of 13 targets, and the CeeDee Lamb/A.J. Brown contingent combined to grab 18 of 22 looks in their respective games against the Jets.

Would I have preferred a “normal” offseason? Of course, but I’m not punishing myself by benching Aiyuk to see if any of the noise impacts him. I’ll take my chances and, in the final game of the week, he could swing your matchup with a big night.

Deebo Samuel Sr.: Samuel’s profile as a whole worries me from a volume perspective. We’ve seen him do a lot without massive usage numbers, making him an outlier but also a weekly risk.

The Jets allowed the sixth-most YAC to receivers last season (15.9% above league average), and that’s enough for him to slip inside my top 25 at the position; but if you’re buying my Aiyuk case, starting Samuel may not be as much of a lock as you think.

Once. Once last season did multiple receivers crack double figures in terms of PPR points against the Jets (Hill and Waddle did it in Week 12). That was part of an offense that led the league in passing — Purdy can be as efficient as he wants, but he’s not getting any of my money on a “to lead the NFL in passing yards” bet.

Samuel is my WR24, ranking just ahead of WR1s in iffy offenses (George Pickens and Terry McLaurin) but just behind other WR2s in better situations (Waddle and Cooper Kupp).

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: I used this stat a few times during the preseason when making the case for Conklin in deeper PPR formats, and I think it holds true again on Monday night.

Last season, after Rodgers’ injury and for the remainder of the fantasy season (Weeks 2-17), there were only five tight ends in the National Football League to have 4+ catches in more games than our guy TC:

• Evan Engram: 15
• Travis Kelce: 13
• David Njoku: 13
• T.J. Hockenson: 13
• Sam LaPorta: 11

That’s some impressive company, and with the 49ers owning the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT over the past two seasons, it wouldn’t surprise me if Conklin got his handful of highly efficient targets this week. It may not matter for standard-sized leagues (there is a lot of similarity at the position after TE13, making a player like this viable in deeper formats), but at some point, you’re going to be begging for cheap points; this is the man to do it.

George Kittle: The Moby Dick of the fantasy industry. The reason for many a restless night. My first thought whenever I see that Charlie meme from “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” as he tries to connect the dots.

The random number generator that is Kittle has as many 20-point games as sub-six-point games (six) with Brock Purdy under center – one of the more consistent and efficient quarterbacks in our game today. If we can harness his powers for good, we are looking at a difference-maker, but you also want to try to avoid the pitfalls whenever possible.

Have I done it? Have I cracked the code?

Like Charlie, I spent way too much time on this, and my wife is questioning my sanity. Whatever … if I can get ahead of the Kittle peaks and valleys, it’ll all be worth it.

Those six big games I mentioned all came against a defense that was below average in terms of preventing yards after the catch, and five of them blitzed at a low rate. Of course, those are nice trends, but we will need to adapt to updated defensive trends as they come in.

For now, all we realistically have is 2023 data to rely on and guess when this profiles as a breakout spot!

Enjoy it. If the numbers from last year are even remotely predictive of this season, we will have to wait until a Thursday night showdown to kick off Week 6 for the next Kittle eclipse.