We are less than a week away from the start of the NFL season, and that means it is time for fantasy football managers to think about setting lineups for the first time this year.
One of the toughest positions to get right is running back because there are so many unknowns. Therefore, we have dived into the data and matchups to examine which RBs you should start and sit this week.
Which Running Backs Should You Start in Week 1?
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at SEA)
Javonte Williams has been one of the biggest risers on my draft board from the start of the summer to now. The more I thought about it, the more I realized it — the starting running back on an offense that throws to running backs more than any other team in the league should at least be a floor-based RB2. Yet, Williams was priced as an RB3.
With the Denver Broncos cutting Samaje Perine, this is going to be a two-man backfield featuring Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Both guys will get their touches, but Williams is the clear favorite for goal-line work.
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That bodes well against a Seattle Seahawks run defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2023.
The Seahawks also allowed a healthy 19% target share to running backs last season. Meanwhile, the Broncos threw to their running backs 32.1% of the time.
Williams is now another year removed from his knee injury. He’s a starting running back in the NFL, and the Week 1 matchup is favorable. You can trust him as an RB2 this week.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. LV)
The Los Angeles Chargers’ desire to be a run-first team does not really compute with the caliber of running backs on their roster. I am skeptical they will be able to run as much as they want.
With that said, they should have no trouble implementing their preferred game plan in Week 1.
As field goal home favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chargers are highly likely to avoid a serious negative game script that would force them to abandon the run. The Raiders allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs last season.
Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns last year and is the clear favorite for goal-line carries. He’s a good bet to score, which would be enough to put him in RB2 territory.
Which Running Backs Should You Sit in Week 1?
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (at ATL)
It’s fascinating how the fantasy community reacts differently to similar things. Jaylen Warren’s hamstring injury is not considered serious, and he already said he is playing in Week 1. Yet, it depressed his ADP and raised Najee Harris’.
I do think Harris is being a bit undervalued this season, as he fits perfectly into what Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to do. However, Week 1 does not project favorably for the Steelers’ second-best running back.
Last season, the Atlanta Falcons were strong against the RB position, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to running backs.
While it’s a new year, this is also a new and improved Falcons team. Their massive upgrades offensively might pose a huge problem for Harris’ Week 1 workload.
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The Falcons are only field-goal home favorites over the Steelers. However, there’s real blowout potential here. If the Falcons’ offense is as good as Drake London drafters believe it will be, they could, for lack of a better term, “come out blasting.”
If the Falcons go up, that means the Steelers can’t just pound the ball with Harris. We would see more pass plays and, thus, more Warren.
Harris likely needs to fall into the end zone to return fantasy value this week.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (at NO)
With Jonathon Brooks out for at least the first four weeks of the season, Chuba Hubbard projects for a pretty nice role early on. He will definitely have usable weeks. Unfortunately, this may not be one of them.
The New Orleans Saints were one of the best defenses against running backs last season, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Although we may see a new-look Carolina Panthers offense featuring better weapons and an improved Bryce Young, they may struggle to move the ball on the ground if the Saints are as good as they were last year.
Do not force Hubbard into lineups this week.