Who will emerge as the lead back for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year?
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both back after productive fantasy seasons in 2023, but new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has brought Cordarrelle Patterson with him from Atlanta.
With three potential scorers in Pittsburgh’s backfield, what’s the fantasy football outlook for the Steelers’ running backs this year?
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 228.6 (183.2 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1029.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 6.9
- Receptions: 45.3
- Receiving Yards: 272.6
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.9
Harris has to be one of the most interesting fantasy football studies of the 2024 season — mainly because his trends appear to be all over the place. If you focus on just his fantasy production, Harris’ profile appears to be trending in the wrong direction.
It’s never a great sign when a player’s rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards have all dropped in three consecutive years with no injuries involved. Yet, Harris actually posted the most efficient season of his career last season with 4.1 yards per carry. This likely has to do with his 2.1 yards after contact per attempt (tying his career high) and finishing second in the league with 30 broken tackles.
One would like to think a renewed commitment to running the ball with an offensive coordinator well renowned for run-heavy schemes, improved quarterback play, and an offensive line that has Troy Fautanu, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick potentially making a profoundly positive instant impact means we should be pretty excited about Harris in 2024, right?
Well, remember that timeshare I mentioned earlier? Yeah, that’s going to be tough to ignore when you take a closer look at the numbers.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Running Back Stats
- Najee Harris: 284 total touches, 1,205 total yards, 8 TDs (RB23)
- Jaylen Warren: 210 total touches, 1,154 total yards, 4 TDs (RB22)
You don’t have to be a math major to figure out why Warren’s role is so problematic to Harris’ fantasy value. Warren’s 61 receptions to Harris’ 29 is a huge discrepancy in full-PPR formats, which gives Warren a higher weekly floor while making Harris a bit more touchdown-dependent.
Warren’s 5.5 yards per touch blew Harris’ 4.2 mark out of the water by a wide margin as well, making him the most efficient back with the more valuable fantasy role in full-PPR formats.
Not to mention, remember when I brought up Harris’ 30 broken tackles last year? Well Warren finished with just three fewer broken tackles on 74 fewer touches.
Quite frankly, Warren would feel like the runaway fantasy option if not for Harris doubling up Warren’s carries inside the 5-yard line last year (8 to 4). That suggests Harris is the clear preferred option when Pittsburgh gets in the red zone, which could play a bigger role if the offense generates more scoring opportunities with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center this year.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jaylen Warren’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 231.5 (161.4 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 917.3
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.9
- Receptions: 70.2
- Receiving Yards: 461.8
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
Warren averaged 5.5 yards per touch (seventh in the league), had a 31.9% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (first), and took 8.1% of his carries for 15+ yards (third). Warren’s 4.65 yards created per touch were third in the league as well.
Warren touched the ball a mere 210 times all season. That is definitely low, but it’s fair to wonder if we even want him to touch the ball more. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry on just 149 attempts. Through the air, he saw a 15.3% target share, sixth in the league, and averaged 1.58 yards per route run, ninth among running backs.
Fantasy managers who drafted Warren didn’t necessarily get a difference-maker. What they did get was a guy who performed better than expected based on his ADP.
Warren averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB29. Considering where he was drafted, Warren reaching double-digit fantasy points in 10 out of 17 weeks is pretty impressive.
The difficult part entering this season is trying to figure out what new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will do with this backfield. Just in case you forgot (even though I know you didn’t), this is the same guy who decided Bijan Robinson wasn’t worthy of even seeing half of his team’s carries.
In Pittsburgh, Smith will need to decide how to divvy up touches between Warren and Najee Harris. The more plodding Harris seems more like Smith’s type of back. However, Harris has first-round draft capital.
Last year, Smith showed a clear preference for the lesser talent and a clear preference for lower draft capital. On the Steelers, the running back with more talent is the UDFA. There’s really no way to know how the workload will be divided.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Cordarrelle Patterson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 62.4 (50.5 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 226.7
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.1
- Receptions: 11.9
- Receiving Yards: 100.1
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.8
The do-it-all offensive weapon followed Arthur Smith to Pittsburgh from Atlanta, and the connection figures to get him on the field, but don’t get too excited. Patterson touched the ball 59 times in 14 games last season, a role that projects to be on the high side of projectable in his age-33 season.
If Warren’s hamstring injury in the second week of the preseason is a lasting issue, maybe C-Patt will work his way into a roster-worthy role. But we aren’t there yet, and you need not waste a roster spot on him at the moment.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst