The Minnesota Vikings enter 2024 with several changes to their offensive personnel, including in their running back room.
The Vikings brought in former Green Bay Packers veteran Aaron Jones to replace the departed Alexander Mattison. Ty Chandler returned to Minnesota as Jones’s backup.
Fantasy football managers should be cautious about investing too much in this backfield, but it’s worth taking inventory of both backs’ value.
Let’s examine the fantasy outlook of Jones and Chandler in 2024.
Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 188.5 (134.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 782.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 7.9
- Receptions: 34.8
- Receiving Yards: 208.9
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.2
Entering his age-29 season, Jones is starting a new chapter of his career not only with a new team but also with an influx of offense. The Vikings know what they have with Justin Jefferson, but outside of the highest-paid non-QB in the sport’s history, there are questions aplenty.
1) Will they get average QB play from Sam Darnold?
2) How effective will T.J. Hockenson be?
3) Can Jordan Addison take a big step forward?
When evaluating fantasy profiles, the impact of the offensive environment is high on the list, and with this many questions, it’s hard to be overly optimistic about Jones.
Even as a part of a viable offense, Jones’ scoring numbers are worrisome. After rushing for at least eight touchdowns in three straight seasons, he’s totaled eight scores on the ground over the past three seasons (43 games played).
Jones missed a career-high six games a season ago, and the explosive plays seem to be vanishing from his profile — two things that don’t usually correct with time in the second half of a career.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Ty Chandler’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 188.5 (134.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 782.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 7.9
- Receptions: 34.8
- Receiving Yards: 208.9
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.2
I’m out on the idea of Jones being the fantasy football weapon he has been in years past, and that puts Chandler in an interesting spot. He has caught multiple passes in each of his past five games with at least 10 carries — a level of versatility that isn’t easy to find outside of the first 10 rounds of a fantasy draft.
We only have 129 NFL touches to judge Chandler, and with only one collegiate season of 150 or more touches, his evaluation requires some guesswork. What we can say with confidence is that he runs hard, or, at the very least, he’s good at falling forward.
That may not seem like the sexiest of skills, but if he can carve out a 10-to-15-touch role, he’s going to be on flex radars. A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
For reference, here is what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:
7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%
I’m going to guess you didn’t think you’d see those four names on the same statistical list. Chandler isn’t on par with those fantasy superstars, but the fact that he’s been viable when given the opportunity is encouraging if you’re buying my argument that he could find himself on the plus side of a committee with time.