While the Baltimore Ravens‘ RB depth chart has a clear leader at the top, it’s still a surprisingly deep group with room for multiple backs to hold a role.
Offseason acquisition Derrick Henry, a three-time All-Pro, comes in to take over the role as the king of the backfield and potentially have the best running back season of the Lamar Jackson era. But when injuries hit Baltimore last season, both Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell saw moments of success and fantasy relevance.
Can any of them be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Henry, Hill, and Mitchell in 2024.
Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 275.8 (247.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1346.9
- Rushing Touchdowns: 13.2
- Receptions: 28.5
- Receiving Yards: 271.0
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
The San Francisco 49ers were a six-win team. Jarvis Landry failed to clear 1,000 yards but led the NFL in receptions. Carson Wentz was a top-five quarterback in both passing touchdowns and passer rating.
Don’t mind me, I’m just familiarizing myself with the last time that Henry failed to reach double figures in the rushing touchdown department. He hasn’t missed more than a single game in seven of his eight NFL seasons and has reached at least 14 total touchdowns in four of his past five seasons.
The concerns around Henry have always been the same — he doesn’t catch enough passes. While that may be true, the scoring has been a floor elevator in the way that most backs rely on targets.
That said, Henry has caught 81.4% of his targets over the past three seasons. So while I’m not putting 50-catch expectations on him, who’s to say he can’t top 33 for the first time in his career as a focal piece of Todd Monken’s offense?
Henry offers a very high floor, which puts him inside my top 10 at the position, making him a buy at his current ADP (just outside of the top 10 with an ADP at the end of Round 3). In early drafts, managers are selecting De’Von Achane and Josh Jacobs ahead of Henry. That’s a tough sell for me, with both the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers likely to rely on the pass to move the ball, resulting in a mean outcome lower than that of Henry in my rankings.
A career-low 4.2 yards per carry in 2023 is on my radar, but so is the fact that Henry’s snap-to-carry count was the highest among qualifiers in the league. The Titans were essentially showing their hand the second The King stepped onto the field, and without an impactful pass game, I’d call 4.2 a win!
Go ahead and chase Achane’s unknown upside or hope to catch lightning in a bottle with Jacobs repeating his 2022 campaign. I’ll sit here and happily take my elevated floor in the early rounds, opting to take my shots at the upside in the middle portion of the draft.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Justice Hill’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 117.7 (87.4 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 495.7
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.2
- Receptions: 30.3
- Receiving Yards: 199.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.7
Hill is coming off the best fantasy season of his career, having averaged 6.8 fantasy points per game.
Now in his fifth season with the Ravens, Hill has always been a solid role player, but he’s never really proven he can be the guy. At every possible turn, the Ravens have looked to not only avoid making Hill their RB1 but to push him out of the RB2 role.
Last year, Baltimore’s plan was to have Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins as the top two backs, with Mitchell as the RB3 and Hill expected to be the RB4. Injuries forced Hill into a more prominent role, however. He had a couple of useful fantasy outings but was mostly ineffective, even in games where he played over 50% of the snaps.
For Hill, the main difference is he’s not competing with anyone for the RB2 role — it’s his.
Last season, Henry only played 54.2% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. He may be a workhorse, but he’s not a three-down back. He was consistently pulled on passing downs and in hurry-up situations for Tyjae Spears. I would suspect that’s the same plan this season, except with Hill. Will that give Hill fantasy value?
The short answer is no. As long as Henry is on the field, there won’t be enough receiving volume in a Lamar Jackson offense for Hill to have a Spears-like season. The entirety of Hill’s value stems from his status as the primary beneficiary to a Henry injury.
You can plug Hill into your lineup and know he won’t get you zero. However, he’s not putting up RB2 numbers. You’re likely to get in the range of 5-7 fantasy points. In a pinch, that’s better than nothing, but those are also numbers you can find on the waiver wire.
In deeper leagues, Hill is worth drafting and putting on the back of a roster. But in standard-sized leagues, you should be spending your later-round picks on players with more upside.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Keaton Mitchell’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 94.9 (82.7 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 537.8
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.7
- Receptions: 12.2
- Receiving Yards: 126.3
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
It’s pretty difficult to average 8.7 yards per touch for a winning team as a rookie and generate almost no excitement the following season, but that’s the case here. I don’t blame people for casting Mitchell aside, as there are a handful of things working against him:
- Henry was acquired this offseason
- Mitchell is opening the season on PUP
- Hill remains on this roster
All of that said, why not stash him on your IR? In the first year under Monken, the Ravens ranked sixth in points scored per drive and had the best average starting field position in the league. I want to bet on this offensive system, and the juice that Mitchell showed as a rookie doesn’t just disappear.
Henry has over 2,300 touches on his NFL résumé, and while he might well be built-proof, stashing a backup RB in your IR spot isn’t an expensive way to bet on a potential injury.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst