Every year, the Baltimore Ravens look to upgrade their backfield. And every year, Justice Hill ends up in at least the RB2 role. Here we are again, with Hill as the clear backup behind Derrick Henry. Is Hill being overlooked as one of the better handcuffs in fantasy football this season?
Justice Hill’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Hill is coming off the best fantasy season of his career, having averaged 6.8 fantasy points per game.
Now in his fifth season with the Ravens, Hill has always been a solid role player, but he’s never really proven he can be the guy. At every possible turn, the Ravens have looked to not only avoid making Hill their RB1 but to push him out of the RB2 role.
This is a team that has signed washed running back after washed running back, hoping they could recapture some of their old glory, giving them opportunities over Hill. Last year, Baltimore’s plan was to have Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins as the top two backs, with Keaton Mitchell as the RB3 and Hill expected to be the RB4.
Injuries forced Hill into a more prominent role, however. He had a couple of useful fantasy outings but was mostly ineffective, even in games where he played over 50% of the snaps.
This season, the Ravens took a page out of their 2019 playbook and signed a 30-year-old Henry, who is very clearly past his prime but not quite done. In this offense, Henry is still very much capable of handling a heavy rushing workload and being effective while doing it.
For Hill, the main difference is he’s not competing with anyone for the RB2 role — it’s his.
Last season, Henry only played 54.2% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. He may be a workhorse, but he’s not a three-down back. He was consistently pulled on passing downs and in hurry-up situations for Tyjae Spears. I would suspect that’s the same plan this season, except with Hill.
Will that give Hill fantasy value?
The short answer is no. As long as Henry is on the field, there won’t be enough receiving volume in a Lamar Jackson offense for Hill to have a Spears-like season. The entirety of Hill’s value stems from his status as the primary beneficiary to a Henry injury.
Is Hill a Good Fantasy Pick?
When looking for handcuffs in fantasy, we need two things. First, we need confidence the player is the one most likely to benefit should the starter go down. With Hill, we have that.
Second, we need confidence that if thrust into the starting role, the handcuff could perform at a reasonable percentage of the starter’s level. We already saw Hill in a lead-back role. He’s…fine?
You can plug Hill into your lineup and know he won’t get you zero. However, he’s not putting up RB2 numbers. You’re likely to get in the range of 5-7 fantasy points. In a pinch, that’s better than nothing, but those are also numbers you can find on the waiver wire.
In deeper leagues, Hill is worth drafting and putting on the back of a roster. But in standard-sized leagues, you should be spending your later-round picks on players with more upside.