Choosing between Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones and the Arizona Cardinals‘ James Conner is deciding between a consistent back with an established quarterback (Conner) and a back coming off an injury-filled season and playing for a new team (Jones).
So, which of these two provides a better fantasy football outlook?
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Aaron Jones
Despite age and injury, Jones is still a top 20 running back in fantasy, coming in as the RB20 in Pro Football Network’s consensus fantasy football rankings as of Aug. 28.
After seven productive seasons with the Green Bay Packers, Jones has moved on to a division rival in the Vikings. While his career includes being among the most versatile running backs of his time, there are certainly questions as to how much Jones actually has left in the tank.
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Despite playing in a career-low 11 games last season did not help Jones’ numbers. The explosiveness that used to be a staple of his game has seemingly vanished.
In 142 rush attempts last season, Jones had only three runs of 20+ yards — half of what he had in 2022.
Nevertheless, Jones can still pick up yards on the ground — 5.0 yards per carry for his career, including 4.6 last season. And although he was reduced to just 30 receptions last season, his 7.8 yards per reception were his highest average since 2019 (9.7).
2024 Fantasy Outlook for James Conner
Like Jones, Conner is also a top-20 running back on PFN’s consensus rankings, coming in as the RB19.
In terms of fantasy production, Conner’s season in 2023 almost mirrored his previous season. After posting 15.4 fantasy points per game and 200.2 total fantasy points in 13 games in 2022, Conner averaged 15.5 fantasy ppg and totaled 201.5 fantasy points in 13 games last season.
Conner did top the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in 2023, finishing with 1,040 yards and a career-high 5.0 ypc average. He’s also consistent with his touches, averaging between 15 and 21 touches per game in each of the last six seasons, including 18.1 last season.
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And although Conner only had 27 receptions last season, some context is needed with that total. Over his first six games — most of which came without Kyler Murray as the Cardinals’ quarterback — Conner averaged just 1.7 targets, 1.3 receptions, and 5.0 receiving yards per game.
On the contrary, over his final seven games (when Murray was the starter), Conner’s receiving numbers increased across the board — 3.3 targets, 2.7 receptions, 19.3 receiving yards. Also, both of his touchdown receptions happened over his final three games.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
While one of the joys of playing fantasy football is taking a risk and watching it work out, Jones represents a risk that may not reap much in the rewards department. He will turn 30 years old before the season is over, and Minnesota’s QB situation is very questionable.
As for Conner, he hasn’t produced over-the-top spectacular numbers. However, being consistent — averaged at least 14 fantasy points per game in five of the last six seasons — pays off when it comes to deciding between these two running backs for your fantasy team.