While most of the NFL‘s 32 teams have decided on a starting quarterback for the 2024 season, many of those signal-callers won’t make it through 17 games.
Sixty-six quarterbacks recorded a start in 2023. In 2022, the NFL experienced even more turnover under center, as a whopping 68 QBs made at least one start.
While injuries were crucial in the abundance of starting quarterbacks, some passers were benched for poor performance.
Mac Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Desmond Ridder were pulled after repeated struggles. The New York Jets cycled through multiple options after Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1 injury. And Russell Wilson’s contract forced the Denver Broncos to remove him from the lineup.
Which quarterbacks are at risk of getting benched in 2024? Let’s run through the top 10 candidates, beginning with a unique situation in the NFC South.
Which NFL QBs Could Be Benched This Season?
10) Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Let’s start with this: It would take a lot for the Falcons to bench Kirk Cousins in his inaugural Atlanta campaign.
Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract with $90 million guaranteed in March. The Falcons are the betting favorites to win the NFC South, and Cousins’ contract structure should lock him in as Atlanta’s starting quarterback through 2025.
Of course, the Falcons made things complicated by surprisingly selecting fellow QB Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in April’s draft. If Atlanta’s season somehow goes off the rails, would general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris want to get a look at their rookie passer at the end of the year?
It’s possible, but Cousins is a gamer who won’t want to leave the field regardless of the Falcons’ record. Benching him might signal the end of his tenure in Atlanta.
While the Falcons almost certainly won’t release Cousins next offseason, they could try to find a trade partner. Several teams appearing later on our list will likely be in the 2025 quarterback market.
Trading Cousins would leave Atlanta with $37.5 million in dead money while saving $2.5 million in salary cap space.
9) Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
We’re Geno Smith fans here at PFN. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should open up Seattle’s offense and lean into 11 personnel in 2024, potentially allowing Smith to post the best season of his career.
Still, it’s hard to ignore the Seahawks’ financial and transactional realities at the quarterback position.
Smith has two years left on his existing deal but has reportedly approached Seattle about a contract extension. Unsurprisingly, nothing is happening on that front. The Seahawks aren’t motivated to rework Smith’s contract, given that he’s signed through 2025.
Seattle’s new staff has said all the right things about Smith throughout the offseason. However, in March, the Seahawks also acquired quarterback Sam Howell from the Washington Commanders.
While Seattle only sacrificed the equivalent of a mid-sixth-round pick for Howell, the club’s decision-makers must have seen something they liked. If the Seahawks struggle in 2024, they’ll have plenty of motivation to let the 23-year-old Howell take snaps.
8) Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Sure, part of the reason the Titans went on an offseason spending spree was to attempt a worst-to-first run in the AFC South.
Tennessee was one of the league’s most active teams during the spring, signing WRs Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and RB Tony Pollard while adding left tackle JC Latham and center Lloyd Cushenberry to what had been the NFL’s worst offensive line. They didn’t stop on defense, adding CBs L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, and safeties Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams.
All those new additions should raise the Titans’ floor. But they’ll also give new head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz a look at Will Levis in upgraded circumstances.
Levis didn’t have much to work with when he stepped in for injured Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill in Week 8. Still, his own performance left a lot to be desired.
Levis finished dead last in Pro Football Reference’s on-target rate (67.1%) and ranked third-worst in passing success rate (37.1%), ahead of only Bryce Young and Zach Wilson.
Although the Titans don’t have a sexy backup to turn to, Callahan might be willing to change quarterbacks for the sake of change if Levis struggles in 2024, even if Mason Rudolph is no one’s idea of a long-term starting QB.
7) Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold is looking at the best opportunity of his NFL career. The former No. 3 overall pick is the Vikings’ unquestioned starting quarterback in Minnesota after first-round rookie J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus during the preseason.
Darnold won’t have McCarthy breathing down his neck in 2024, and he’ll also be surrounded by an ideal offensive environment.
Justin Jefferson is the league’s best wideout, Jordan Addison posted 900+ receiving yards as a rookie, and TE T.J. Hockenson (ACL, MCL) could return by midseason. Free agent addition Aaron Jones brings more juice to Minnesota’s backfield, and head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the league’s most creative play designers.
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Still, while Darnold managed a few impressive games with the Carolina Panthers in 2021 and 2022, he’s largely been a pro disappointment.
Since 2000, 51 quarterbacks have started at least 40 games over their first four NFL seasons, per TruMedia. Among that group, Darnold ranks 41st in interception rate, 42nd in sack rate, 44th in passing success rate, 47th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and 48th in touchdown rate.
O’Connell may already know what he has in backup quarterbacks Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall, so he may allow Darnold the longest of leashes. But we’ve seen what Darnold’s NFL nadir looks like.
6) Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
What are we supposed to make of Deshaun Watson heading into Week 1?
Injuries and a suspension have limited him to 12 games over two seasons. In 2023, Watson was in and out of Cleveland’s lineup before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in November.
When he did play, Watson posted a 42.9 QBR, which would’ve ranked 24th league-wide in 2023 if he’d posted enough attempts to qualify.
The Browns boast one of the NFL’s best rosters, leaving Watson as their potential weak link.
Watson experienced arm soreness last week and sat out of Cleveland’s preseason finale. While he didn’t participate during the exhibition season, Browns general manager Andrew Berry said Watson had a “really strong camp” and will be available when Cleveland faces the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.
The Browns hired former Bills OC Ken Dorsey this offseason, and he’ll help Cleveland run a more wide-open, spread-out attack that plays to Watson’s strengths.
Still, we won’t be shocked if QB2 Jameis Winston makes multiple starts in 2024.
5) Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
We’ll try not to overreact to fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler’s Sunday preseason performance when he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt while completing one high-end throw to WR Equanimerous St. Brown.
Still, Rattler does give the Saints an intriguing option behind starter Derek Carr.
New Orleans has a wide set of outcomes in 2022. Winning the NFC South is on the table, but so is finishing with a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Carr battled through multiple injuries last season to deliver a middle-of-the-pack QB performance. That’s essentially where he’s always been on the NFL’s signal-caller hierarchy. Carr’s floor is high, but his ceiling is virtually non-existent.
The Saints restructured Carr’s contract this offseason, making it more difficult for him to be released in the future. However, New Orleans could consider a post-June 1 cut next spring. The club would save $30 million in 2025 cap space while spreading Carr’s dead money over the ensuing two seasons.
Head coach Dennis Allen’s job status complicates this situation. If Allen feels his employment is tied to Carr, he may be reluctant to bench the veteran quarterback. At the same time, the calls for Rattler won’t cease if the Saints get off to a lousy start.
4) Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Daniel Jones suited up for the Giants’ Week 2 preseason game, his first live action since tearing his ACL last November. Things didn’t exactly go well.
Jones threw two first-quarter interceptions, including a horribly ill-advised throw that Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre easily picked off and ran back for a short touchdown.
While Jones bounced back and led two scoring drives before halftime, that game was a preview of what might be a challenging 2024 campaign for New York’s offense.
Jones’ 2024 performance will largely determine whether he remains the Giants’ starting quarterback for the duration of the upcoming season. But his contract — a four-year, $160 million deal he signed with New York in 2023 — might also decide if Jones sticks on the field next year.
Jones has $23 million of his $30 million base salary in 2025 guaranteed for injury. That means if Jones were to suffer a severe injury during the upcoming season and could not pass a physical next spring, the Giants would owe him that money.
As such, New York could handle Jones like the Denver Broncos did Russell Wilson in a similar 2023 situation. Once the Broncos were officially eliminated from the playoffs, Sean Payton sent Wilson to the bench and started backup Jarrett Stidham for the season’s final two games.
HBO’s offseason version of “Hard Knocks” showed that Giants GM Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll were highly interested in drafting a first-round quarterback in April. They may have already moved on from Jones in their mind’s eye.
If the Giants struggle in 2024 and Jones plays like he did before going down last season, Daboll will likely pull the ripcord and turn to QB2 Drew Lock.
3) Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders
Gardner Minshew seemed to win the Raiders’ starting quarterback gig over Aidan O’Connell by default. Las Vegas gave Minshew a two-year, $25 million deal with $15 million guaranteed this offseason, giving him a leg up on the 2023 fourth-round rookie from the jump.
After taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson, Minshew nearly guided the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs last season. He went 7-6 in his starts, tossed 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions, ranked 13th in QBR (59.6), and made the Pro Bowl.
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However, Minshew benefitted from working under Colts head coach/offensive play-caller Shane Steichen, who helped Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts thrive before coming to Indy in 2023. In Vegas, Minshew’s OC is Luke Getsy, who struggled to devise a suitable plan for Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears over the past two seasons.
The Raiders have the NFL’s worst quarterback situation. When a team is in this position, it typically cycles through multiple options.
Expect Minshew and O’Connell to each start at least six games in 2024.
2) Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Although head coach Mike Tomlin hasn’t officially identified the Steelers’ starting quarterback, Russell Wilson appears to have the inside track on Justin Fields.
Wilson is the safer choice for the conservative Tomlin. Fields reportedly shined during training camp practices but didn’t exactly light the world on fire during Pittsburgh’s preseason games. He fumbled two snaps and took two sacks in Week 1, then lost another snap and absorbed two more sacks in Week 3.
Those repeated mistakes won’t fly with Tomlin — we know that much. Still, Fields makes more sense as the Steelers’ starter from a 50,000-foot view.
Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported this week that Pittsburgh believes its 2025 starting quarterback is on its roster. In other words, the Steelers don’t intend to draft a quarterback next spring or cross their fingers that Dak Prescott becomes available.
At 25, Fields is a decade younger than Wilson. While the Steelers will likely begin the season with Wilson as their starting quarterback, don’t be surprised if Fields makes his way into the lineup sooner rather than later.
Neither passer is a perfect fit for new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s scheme, which emphasizes play action and throws over the middle. But Fields’ rushing ability could be a trump card that Wilson can’t match.
Since 2021, Fields has generated more EPA on scrambles than any other quarterback except for Josh Allen, per TruMedia. He’s a punishing runner at 6’3″, 228 pounds. Fields ranks first in yards per contact per attempt and third in rush attempts per broken tackle over the past three years.
1) Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
While Jacoby Brissett entered the offseason as the Patriots’ starting quarterback, he could be benched before the 2024 campaign even gets underway.
No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye has impressed during New England’s preseason games, continuously putting pressure on Brissett with standout performances. Brissett left Sunday night’s game with a shoulder injury. Maye completed 13 of 20 attempts for 126 yards and a touchdown, forcing head coach Jerod Mayo to admit the rookie has outplayed the veteran.
Mayo indicated Brissett could have returned if last night’s contest was a regular-season game. He also referred to Maye as the “second-best quarterback” on the Patriots’ roster, potentially indicating New England is still leaning toward Brissett as its QB1.
The Pats face the NFL’s hardest schedule in 2024, have a bottom-two offensive line, and lack true playmaking weapons. It won’t be a walk in the park for whichever quarterback New England turns to.
Still, even if the Patriots begin the season with Brissett under center, Maye will almost certainly play in 2024. Rookie quarterbacks, especially those chosen in the top five picks, rarely sit for long in the NFL.
